The Numbers
A Run at the Latest Data from ABC's Poobah of Polling, Gary Langer
Gary Langer is director of polling at ABC News, where he's covered the beat of public opinion for nearly 20 years - conducting and analyzing ABC News polls, evaluating data from other sources and setting the news division's standards for poll reporting. Langer has won two Emmy awards for ABC's reporting of public opinion polls in Iraq, and The Numbers blog was honored this year as winner of the 2008 Iowa Gallup Award for Excellent Journalism Using Polls.
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In the Democratic Race, Whither White Men
February 11, 2008 12:26 PM
Tomorrow’s primaries may present an opportunity to look at the preference of white men for Obama over Clinton in some contests. While far from consistent in primaries, it’s been an important factor in their support profiles: Where white men favor Obama, he's far likelier to win.
Mason Dixon’s polling has Obama winning 41 percent of whites in Virginia and 40 percent in Maryland; that’s essential to his overall lead in these two states, since in neither of them are African-Americans predicted to have a large enough share to carry Obama themselves (as in Louisiana on Saturday, and in some previous Southern states). That suggests Obama could win white men on Tuesday, as he has in seven of the 23 previous states for which we have data. (Clinton's won them in 11, and they've tied in five.)
In some states to date where Clinton has not won white men – California and Arizona – there’ve been enough Hispanics to make the difference for her. In some others (New Hampshire, Massachusetts) there have been few blacks, and enough white women to outweigh white men. But in states with significant but not vast numbers of black voters, and few Hispanics, white men are critical. Per the table below, Clinton’s won the primary in eight of the 11 states where she won white men, a 73 percent success rate; but in only four of the 12 where she didn’t win them, 33 percent.
When we look at issue preferences, we find white men generally less attuned to Clinton across a range of parameters. In aggregate data, white men have been 17 points less apt than white women to say Clinton would be the best commander-in-chief; 17 points less apt to call "experience" the most important attribute (it's a strong Clinton quality), 17 points less apt to say Clinton would do the most to unite the country and 14 percent less apt to call health care their top issue (also strong for Clinton).
Naturally, affinity voting plays a major role. White women are twice as apt as white men to call the sex of the candidate important in their vote, 35 percent to 17 percent. And white women who call the candidate's sex important have favored Clinton over Obama by a huge 78-17 percent margin; white men who call it important also have favored Clinton, but by a much closer margin, 54-35 percent.
Addendum: With thanks to Ron Brownstein of the National Journal, there’s a further point of differentiation here – the additional role of socioeconomic status. Education provides the clearest view: Combining all primaries to date, white men who’ve attended college have gone to Obama over Clinton by 51-38 percent, while white men without a degree have gone the other way – 52-31 percent for Clinton; he does 20 points better, she 14 points worse, among college educated white men vs. non-graduates. There’s a similar division among white women, albeit a little less pronounced – among those with college degrees, Obama is +14 points, Clinton -10, compared with those who haven’t earned a degree. There’s less of an education gap among nonwhites.
Table's below. One note – apart from Iowa and Nevada we have no data for caucuses; just primaries. Caucuses, with their very low turnout, can be something of a different animal.
Vote preference
among white men
Clinton Obama Edwards Winner
Clinton:
Arkansas 71% 24 Clinton
Alabama 70 27 Obama
New Jersey 58 39 Clinton
Tennessee 58 32 Clinton
Oklahoma 55 32 Clinton
Missouri 55 41 NA
Michigan 54 38* Clinton
New York 52 43 Clinton
Louisiana 51 31 Obama
Florida 45 27 25 Clinton
Nevada 46 40 10 Clinton
Tied:
Mass. 48 49 Clinton
Delaware 47 47 Obama
Arizona 46 45 Clinton
Georgia 46 48 Obama
S.C. 28 27 45 Obama
Obama:
Utah 29 64 Obama
Illinois 37 59 Obama
N.M. 38 59 NA
Conn. 40 57 Obama
Calif. 35 55 Clinton
N.H. 30 38 20 Clinton
Iowa 23 33 25 Obama
*uncommitted
February 11, 2008 in 2008 Primaries, Race | Permalink | User Comments (71)
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I don’t care what color, race, religion, gender a candidate is or even his favorite bubble gum flavor. I don’t like Obama’s politics or Clinton’s. I’m not too much on McCain’s. Huckabee is better but he isn’t perfect. Clinton and Obama voted to give amnesty to illegal aliens. McCain wrote the bill! Huckabee wants to give college educations to illegal aliens, before Americans get it. McCain is willing to circumvent the Second Amendment to an extent. Hillary wants to totally disregard it. Obama makes Hillary look like the president of the NRA. Huckabee says he will enforce the First Amendment but I’m still not sure. The last time we elected a preacher we ended up in WW1 and the League of Nations which became the UN. I shudder to think what the next one will do. ... Face it, there are no good choices left. It will come down to Hillary or Obama vs McCain. It’s just a matter of America losing a lot or a little. Either way we lose. I’m just glad Giuliani is out of it.
Posted by: jijalagi | Feb 11, 2008 10:20:16 PM
I am the lowest of the low: a WASP male conservative- I am scum, I know that. However in my pitiful little brain I know that I am NOT voting for Hillary Clinton and that this is because she is a Communist. It has nothing whatsoever to do with her being a woman.
I also know that I am NOT voting for BO because he too is a Communist, at least insofar as he has thought about it. It has absolutely nothing to do with his being Black and/or white.
These things I know.
Posted by: WBJR | Feb 11, 2008 10:57:05 PM
Defining the voters by college education may be a non-issue like the last 3 elections (1996, 2000 and 2004) with both, Democrat and Republican splitting those voters 50-50. I assume that some policies like the expiration of the Bush Tax cuts in 2010 may drive voters with college education with high salaries to vote Republican and away from any democratic candidate, Clinton or Obama.
Posted by: Angel | Feb 11, 2008 10:57:35 PM
I forgot to mention that I will not vote for McCain because he thinks it is virtuous to consort with and "work with" Communists such as the 2 Dem Candidates.
Posted by: WBJR | Feb 11, 2008 11:01:22 PM
In the past decades in the different parts of the world, women has exemplied themselves in politics became presidents and prime ministers but not in the United States. The US being the symbol of democracy and freedom and yet no woman has ever got the presidency. It is always the MEN who rules and wins but stumbles. Men should not have the monopoly of power but instead recognize also that women are capable of leading, nurturing, caring, and etc....
I guess it is high time for America (US) to have their first woman president. America must be proud to have a woman like Hillary standing up in this presidential election. She has the brain, intelligence, passion, education, vision and the experience. She is not perfect but she can be a good leader to give a NEW FACE to America (US) in a Woman's perspective. Since America was born we have been lead by men, let us have a change of mentality in the perspective of a WOMAN.
I would love to see America (US) leading and making a herself a good model for the whole world in another perspective.
This is just my 1 dime opinion.
Posted by: philboni | Feb 12, 2008 12:32:52 AM
Dianne, I hope you will allow me to vote for a white man because he looks like me without calling me a racist. The one thing I would ask of you is to actually listen to Obama and not be swayed by words like hope and change and concentrate on what he is likely to accomplish. I guess you know that the country is several trillion dollars in debt and the only way we are going to be able to pay that debt is with a lowering of our standard of living. There is just no money to keep any promises with. Those are facts that none of the candidates are going to tell you. So you go out and vote for Obama and I will kill your vote by voting for a white man who is going to continue the fight against radical Islam and keep it overseas rather then in our backyard. That is the most overiding issue that we will ever have to face in our lifetime and cutting and running isn't an option.
Posted by: Jim from KC | Feb 12, 2008 12:45:57 AM
Black or White, male or female, democrat or republican it would behoove you to consider that we are all living in the United States and we will all fall as will our fortunes if we don't learn to respect the people that make up our diverse culture. You see the party is over. You can ot expect your economy to thrive if market share can not be increased globally. We are into a NEW part of the globe. One that knows you better than you know yourself. Do you really think a white woman can cut a deal that will keep you out of war for the rest of your life among a people who are non-white? The inability for the white male to do this has already been established. So how many of you are willing white man to kill yourself off to extinction? It's not like your families are made up of 8-10 children like back in the days of the civil war. You don't even number 5-6 as during WWII. So truth be told you can't "win" your way anymore by fighting a war. The gigg is up so to speak. There are things you do not know because you have never been taught. Thank goodness many of you have made friends among non-white people so it is to you I say lead the way for the sake of your people for the sake of this country. After thousands of years of of whites against non-whites the United States is uniguely position to tapp it's diversity to lead in a "NEW" way.
Stop being afraid to embrace it.
Posted by: inside the beltway | Feb 12, 2008 2:01:21 AM
It's not that I don't like Hillary or her policy positions, She seem likeable enough and could make a good president in a managerial way, although not really inspiring.
But, it's her voice. I just can't stand listening to it anymore and the more I hear it on TV the more I realize I just can't see hearing for four to eight years. It is like hearing that Chimp Bush talk, but different.
I know it's not a particularly intellectual point but it's important anyway. You have to be able to listen the president speak. Sorry Hillary, you are just too shrill.
Posted by: Michael Robinson | Feb 12, 2008 4:35:24 AM
I think this is also a sexist issue, men are threaatend by clinton being a woman so they vote for who obama the preacher. A true man would vote for obama
Posted by: barb | Feb 12, 2008 6:15:08 AM
I THINK IT BECOMES IMPORTANT WHAT WHITE MEN ARE DOING-and WE ALL KNOW WHAT IT IS-SEXIST--BECAUSE WHITE WOMEN DID NOT EXPECT IT. SO HERE IS A WHITE WOMAN, CLINTON, DUKING IT OUT ALONE WITH THE SUPPORT OF WHITE WOMEN WHO ARE SHOCKED BY WHITE MALE BEHAVIOR.
THOSE OF US WHO KNOW WHITE MALE EXPECTED THAT.WHEN HE NEEDS VOTES, HE PlaYS THE WHITE WOMAN LIKE a GUITAR.
ONCE THE WHITE WOMAN NEEDS HELP, HE BECOMES THE WEASEL THAT HE IS. WHITE WOMEN LEARN SOMETHING FROM THIS. IN THE END mCAIN WILL BE PRESIDENT BECAUSE THE SAME WHITE MALES WILL VOTE AGAINST OBAMA IN THE GENERAL ELECTIONS.
Posted by: TJ | Feb 12, 2008 6:40:54 AM
HILLARY'S HANDS ARE TIED -BILL'S HANDS ARE TIED. OBAMA CAN THROW ALL THE MUD HE WANTS,,,,,,,,,IF YOU RESPOND TO OBAMA -IT'S RACISM - THIS IS CRAZY, MEN
HAD HILLARY ASKED OBAMA TO RELEASE DETAILS OF HIS TAXES, DEALINGS WITH REZKO AND to tell us WHO IS SENDING $32 MILLIONS TO OBAMA---THE MEDIA WOULD BE UP IN ARMS. TED KENNEDY WOULD BE ALL OVER THE STAGE JUMPING LIKE AN OLD FOOL AND SHUSTER WOULD CLAIM CLINTON GOT THE MONEY PIMPING HER PRECIOUS DAUGHTER...WHO IS THIS OBAMA AND WHY DOES HE THINK HE IS IN A POSITION TO INPUGNE THE INTEGRITY OF CLINTONS-
THIS GUY OBAMA IS CRAZY POWER HUNGRY. THIS WILL BACKFIRE!HOPEFULLY, THE MEDIA WILL BE FAIR FOR ONCE. BILL CLINTON GETS PAID $1,000,000 TO SPEAK AT ONE GATHERING. THEY HAVE UNBELIEVABLE REVENUES COMING FROM BOOKS----OBAMA IS NOTHING BUT AIR-
Posted by: TJ | Feb 12, 2008 6:49:29 AM
Obama cries for Hillary to release her tax returns. She has until April just like every American. Why doesn't Obama explain his relationship with Nulcear Exelon? According to an analysis by the non-partisan Center for Responsive Politics of donations over $250, Obama’s presidential warchest has received $194,750 from 150 Exelon employees, with top executives of the company sending in the checks. Exelon workers, bundled together, rank sixth in Obama’s top donor groups. Obama protects those who lines his pockets. Do a google search on Obama and Exelon and educate yourself on how Obama is just out to line his pockets. His real estate deals further prove this trend with him.
Posted by: White Guy Voting | Feb 12, 2008 8:36:49 AM
It saddens me to read the anonymous fear you all display so readily on a computer blog and in a ballot booth. It is this mentality that fed into and supported terror groups like the KKK. It is this mentality that led the South to want to try and cede the Union. But, this fear really is based in ignorance. After all, the South itself is even showing more progressiveness than you are in 2008.
To vote for a man because he is white is just as racist as not voting for a man because he is black. The same applies when voting for a woman. Voting for a woman because she is a "white" woman is also too considered racism.
(continued below)
Posted by: The Only Thing To Fear... | Feb 12, 2008 10:27:06 AM
And when you look at it more in depth, what truly has Hillary done? She keeps saying she has 35 years of experience? We've known of her for about 16 years of that so-called 35 years of experience, 8 of those years she spent as First Lady, where she tried to get Universal Healthcare passed without the consent or approval of Congress or the Senate. The next 8 years she spent as an elected US Senator for NY, during 9/11. What did she do during this time that was so astounding outside of strategically preparing to run for President? And what rallies, protests and bills did she get passed for poor people to vote for her? And to top it off, she has 2 terms in Senate to Obama's almost 1 term. Outside of her “remarkable” Senate career, she has been a part of Bill Clinton's inner circle. She has had the opportunity twice as a Senator to manage people, yet somehow when she expands that management to a national scale it buckles. She's now bailing herself out, “loaning” money to her campaign, full time staffers now have to decide between taking no pay and jumping ship, her own campaign staff members don't know who they are suppose to report to. What's interesting here is that you are so consumed with race that you look past all this and focus on the fact that "she's not a black man". Ignorance at its core. In Obama, here is a man that served as an Illinois state senator for 8 years prior to his US Senate election, was able to get universal healthcare for 150,000 Illinois mothers and children, spoke out against the war and has done an record-breaking job raising money for his presidential campaign and inspires his staff and volunteers to organize in a way that is both successful and unseen. Yet, you immediately try to diminish his credentials to "black". Its fear and ignorance. The media has shown you so many negative images of blacks, you only speak to Black Americans when forced (i.e. work or to say "excuse me" when passing, IF you even do that) and therefore have a very 1 dimensional view, especially the person who commented on Long Beach as if no stereotypes exist about Asian men and women.
(continued below)
Posted by: The Only Thing To Fear... | Feb 12, 2008 10:28:47 AM
Everyone on this blog, the world is passing you by. And the world is not white. White power only exists in your minds. Your children are moving beyond it because they see the world as it exists today and tomorrow, not as it existed yesterday. And considering Obama's ethnic background, I would highly suggest that all of you also research your own backgrounds and discover who is also in your family lineage -- regardless of which part of the nation you now live in. Slavery not only strong impacted and built this country economically, but also genealogically. Change is the only constant in life people. Reality check yourselves and do not let your decisions be driven by fear and ignorance.
Posted by: The Only Thing To Fear... | Feb 12, 2008 10:29:42 AM
To The Only Thing To Fear;
As a white man the only thing I fear is ignorance on a mass scale, and this is what we are getting with the Obama crowd. I bet if you went to one of his rallies of star-stuck worshipers and pulled some of them aside for an impromptu interview, you could not get a decent answer as far as what they think of his actual POSITIONS on ISSUES!. All you will get are teary eyed wails of "hope" and "change", I swear some of these Obamites look like they are in one of those brainwashing cults - scary. One word descriptions I have NOT heard from Obama fans are; integrity, principled, substantive, open.
Posted by: libsukbad | Feb 12, 2008 10:45:43 AM
One more thing that's been driving me nuts about the fawning Obama coverage - they keep talking about the college educated voters going for him, well my retort to that is point out how watered down and weak most majors at universities has become. It is NOT by coincidence that MOST of our country's best, brightest and biggest innovators are either college dropouts or never attended at all. The university experience in malleable fields such as political science, history, philosophy/psychology and other "liberal arts" type disciplines are now nothing more than PC liberal indoctrination centers. It is in fact a joke that they are even allowed to teach economics because the liberal, tenure system they use ensures non-competitive, poorly balanced and costly education, it is no wonder that the cost of education is rising at a pace even much faster than health care. Yet no one rails against "big education" - wonder why that is?.
Posted by: libsukbad | Feb 12, 2008 11:05:13 AM
I am a white male 33 and first the firs time in my life I will be voting for a republican Mcain. This has nothing to do with race. Obama one I do not belive he is not Muslim. Two whare is the American flag during his events.
Go Hilliary-Then if HIlliary does not get the nomination Mcain.
Posted by: chris | Feb 12, 2008 11:33:55 AM
libs...bad, have you ever gone to Obama's website and read under 'issues' his positions on healthcare, seniors, social security, national defense, etc.? Perhaps if you had you would understand why more and more people are joining him. His ideas are much better than Hillary's because he doesn't 'owe' corporate America anything, like Hillary does for the huge donations they gave her. Just like Bill before her. Obama has proven his heart is in the right place to lead us by not taking corporate dollars and his extensive, intelligent plans on his website shows he is prepared to be our leader. Read, then you'll understand.
Posted by: Lydia | Feb 12, 2008 12:17:16 PM
Could the greater preference among white college-educated men and women for Obama be the result of them being more likely to read the details? In college, one has to do a lot of reading and when writing, one has to 'back up' statements with facts. This is the argument I keep making, that if folks actually went to the candidates websites, read their positions under 'issues', they would see the huge difference between Obama and Hillary. Obama's plans are much more detailed, workable and encompass much greater change for good. Whether it is helping seniors, (no income tax on those who earn under $50,000) energy, (real changes in mpg, helping American companies re-tool for more efficient models, etc.)affordable health insurance for all who want it, he outlines why, and how we'll pay for it. Hillary's plans are too little to really make a difference. (Except her health insurance where it is mandatory you buy it. Big Brother lives!) Personally I've never gone to college but I do like knowing the facts before I make big decisions.
Posted by: Lydia | Feb 12, 2008 12:34:15 PM
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