« January 2008 | Main | March 2008 »

A New Hampshire Post-Mortem

Pollsters shed some light on their New Hampshire problem last night, with the Gallup Organization reporting that half the misstatement in its final pre-election poll was caused by its likely voter modeling. But other pollsters differed, agreeing chiefly that the...

Continue reading "A New Hampshire Post-Mortem"

February 29, 2008 in Favorite Posts | Permalink | User Comments (29)

+16, +12, +3, +2

The New York Times this morning reported two national polls completed Sunday that show a double-digit lead for Barack Obama over Hillary Clinton in preference for the Democratic nomination - the Times' own, with CBS News; and one from Gallup...

Continue reading "+16, +12, +3, +2"

February 26, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (54)

Spoilage?

Ralph Nader’s announcement of his latest tilt at the presidency promptly launched a fresh round of the parlor game called “spoiler” – this round arguing that Nader could cost the Democratic nominee the presidency in 2008, as he allegedly did...

Continue reading "Spoilage?"

February 25, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (32)

The SES Factor

My last couple of items have looked at race and sex as factors in the Democratic presidential campaign (and separately we've examined the role of ideology and religious belief on the Republican side). The Clinton-Obama contest includes another crucial variable...

Continue reading "The SES Factor"

February 19, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (16)

The Role of Race

Race has been a riveting factor in the Democratic presidential primaries; even beyond sex, age and socioeconomics, it looks to be the single most powerful demographic in vote choices – at least for nonwhites. Witness New Mexico, which Hillary Clinton...

Continue reading "The Role of Race"

February 15, 2008 in Favorite Posts | Permalink | User Comments (80)

In the Democratic Race, Whither White Men

Tomorrow’s primaries may present an opportunity to look at the preference of white men for Obama over Clinton in some contests. While far from consistent in primaries, it’s been an important factor in their support profiles: Where white men favor...

Continue reading "In the Democratic Race, Whither White Men"

February 11, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (71)

Turnout and the Youth Vote

This note takes a look at turnout overall in primaries to date, and then tackles the question of turnout among young voters. In short, with the combined punch of an exciting race and earlier dates, turnout in Democratic races is...

Continue reading "Turnout and the Youth Vote"

February 8, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (20)