The Numbers

A Run at the Latest Data from ABC's Poobah of Polling, Gary Langer

Gary Langer is director of polling at ABC News, where he's covered the beat of public opinion for nearly 20 years - conducting and analyzing ABC News polls, evaluating data from other sources and setting the news division's standards for poll reporting. Langer is a two-time Emmy award winner, both for ABC's reporting of public opinion polls in Iraq.

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The Role of Race

February 15, 2008 9:35 AM

Race has been a riveting factor in the Democratic presidential primaries; even beyond sex, age and socioeconomics, it looks to be the single most powerful demographic in vote choices – at least for nonwhites.

Witness New Mexico, which Hillary Clinton last night was announced to have won by a razor-thin 1,709 votes – despite losing white voters there by a 12-point margin. The reason: her 26-point victory among Hispanics.

I wrote last week about white men as a swing group; it proved out in Virginia and Maryland. But differing vote preferences between African-Americans and Hispanics are essential as well, and especially worth evaluating with an eye toward the Texas primary ahead.

There is some tension here. In aggregate exit poll data from the Super Tuesday states, just 3 percent of whites called the race of the candidate “the single most important factor” in their vote; that rose to 12 percent among Hispanics. Voters in both those groups favored Clinton by roughly 3-1 margins, 73-22 percent among whites, 72-27 percent among Hispanics – in both cases, better for Clinton than she did among whites and Hispanics who gave less importance to the candidates’ race.

Among black voters, 6 percent called race the single top factor and 83 percent of them went for Obama, but so did 82 percent of all other blacks.

Obama surprised Clinton among Hispanics in Virginia this week, seemingly beating her by 54-46 percent; that only happened previously in Connecticut, 53-43 percent. In fact, though, the sample size in both states was too small for reliable analysis, and the difference between the candidates was within sampling tolerances.

More reliable is the overall result among Hispanics: Across all primaries to date, Clinton’s won them by 61-34 percent. Her 67 percent support from Hispanics in California (where Obama won white men by 20 points) and by 55 percent in Arizona (where white men split evenly) were crucial to her winning those states. New Mexico’s the latest example.

As with whites, socioeconomic status plays into the Hispanic vote. Clinton has done 10 points better among Hispanics who don’t have a college degree (65-32 percent, vs. 55-42 percent among Hispanic college graduates) and among those with less than $50,000 in family incomes (67-30, vs. 57-40 percent among better-off Hispanics). She’s helped in this population by the fact that Hispanic voters are less likely to be college graduates (32 percent vs. 39 percent of blacks and 54 percent of whites) and more apt than whites to have incomes under $50,000 (49 percent of Hispanics vs. 33 percent of whites.)

Clinton’s done 11 points better with Hispanic women (66-31 percent over Obama) than with Hispanic men (55-39 percent). Among whites, she's won women overall by 59-34 percent, but managed only a dead heat among men, 45-44 percent.

Among blacks, meanwhile, the surge to Obama since December has been remarkable. In the last pre-primary ABC News/Washington Post poll last year, Clinton led Obama among blacks by 52-39 percent. That changed after Obama established his credentials by winning Iowa; across all primaries to date he’s won African-Americans by 79-17 percent.

Whites have accounted for 61 percent of Democratic primary voters; 20 percent have been blacks, ranging from a low of 1 percent in New Hampshire to a high of 55 percent in South Carolina. Hispanics have accounted for 14 percent overall, peaking at 35 percent in New Mexico and 30 percent in California, where their turnout was up sharply from 16 percent in 2004. The Texas primary is March 4; in 2004 Hispanics accounted for 24 percent of Democratic primary voters there, blacks, 21 percent.

All these number stand in sharp contrast to the Republican primaries, in which voters have been divided much more by religious belief (evangelical vs. non-evangelical) and ideology. There’s good reason race hasn’t been a factor: Whites have accounted for 88 percent of Republican primary voters, compared with 61 percent of Democrats. Hispanics, at 6 percent of GOP voters, are less than half as prevalent in the Republican ranks as in the Democratic. And blacks, two in 10 Democratic voters, account for just 3 percent of Republicans in this year's primaries.

February 15, 2008 in Favorite Posts | Permalink | User Comments (80)

User Comments

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I think the white men in pennsylvania and Ohio, maybe even Wisconsin might have something else to say about it. Does anyon ereally think calling the Clinton's racists is going to help Obama, or democrats retake the white house?

The Clinton's have done so much for black communities over decades of political life. It is actually revolting to see what is being done to them by the black community. It may not be apparent right now, but this will come back at them hard. If not sooner in other democratic primaries then later. How terribly terribly sad.

Posted by: s.b. | Feb 15, 2008 9:55:48 AM

Can anyone point me to new conspiracy theories that have Obama not Osama as the third historical antichrist according to Nostradamus? His name fits better with MABUS = Bush + ObaMA.

Posted by: Tom | Feb 15, 2008 9:56:19 AM

ABCNEWS Quote explaining Latinos for Clinton: "It's simply that Latinos know her better, there is name recognition, Latinos still remember good economic times with Bill Clinton," said Jorge Ramos, a Univision television anchor". So, for Latinos it is like "The candidate we know is better than the candidate we don't".

The US ELECTORAL VOTES map looks like a baseball field with big states with Latino voters like Florida as the 1st base, NY as second base, CA as the 3rd base and home plate-TEXAS to complete the LATINO GRAND SLAM for Hillary Clinton.

Posted by: Angel | Feb 15, 2008 10:00:49 AM

When I listen to Roger Clemens talk about being raised by his mother, I wonder why Obama doesn't. Considering both his Muslim fathers left him to be raised by his white mother and grandparents, I cannot respect nor support a candidate that exploits the black race card when the opposite is true. I do not believe he will be a better solution for this country when it just perpetuates the racial divide. At least the Clintons go both ways.

Posted by: Tim | Feb 15, 2008 10:05:01 AM

You know I'm sure the Obama camp would be calling everyone racist if they didn't allow Florida and Michigan's delegates to vote at convention if he had won these states. 100% sure. It's so cheap and so sad to misuse this word. It diminishes real acts of rascism and real victims of racism to talking points and politics.

Posted by: s.b. | Feb 15, 2008 10:12:07 AM

I wonder what news stories we would see if whites voted 95%-5% for a white candidate vs a better known black candidate?

I mean afterall, if we ignored politics for, oh let's say, 25 years, it is obvious then, that when one of ours runs for office, we would KNOW he or she was better than the other candidate because . . . why?

You wouldn't know who was best because you have not been taking part for years. Therefore to claim now, out of the depths of time, that you have awakened with the knowledge that you KNOW Obama is better is simply LUDICROUS, and I don't mean the artist spelled differently.

Claiming now to know Obama will do the job is impossible. You haven't paid attention to the past but you know the future? You have not participated in elections, nor watched debates, nor volunteered for campaigns, but the moment a black candidate appears, who the media builds as a uniter and the media twists an Iowa win into a white acceptance of black folks, you are right there to say you ALWAYS KNEW he was the one.

Two years ago you didn't even know who he was. And if asked to day, without google, to tell the world all you know about his record and his achievements wouldn't fill a demi-tasse espresso cup.

So voting suddenly 95%-5% means WE as non AA's are the racists for demanding a fair hearing on Obama's record. Demanding we hear and see proof is racist, is it? Really? We are the racists because we are demanding evidence to support the speeches he doesn't even write himself? We are the racists, because we are not swallowing the Movement Kool-Aide willingly? And we are married to minorities, have minorities in the family, including AA, Jews, Catholics, Gays, poor members and rich, but that family make-up is one of white supremacy?

You should be ashamed to wave racism around like a weapon to avoid answering questions you don't want to face. That is wrong and is typical of people trying to hide from truth by throwing up smoke from the past. If they label all discent as racism there is no chance for free speech, and that suits them just fine, when it comes time to face the music.

Please let's not turn this into a racism contest to see who can name the most McCarthy-type violators in the shortest period of time. McCarthism was a nightmare and it might not be far beyond the horizon :(

Posted by: 2009 Where Are You? | Feb 15, 2008 10:14:35 AM

If the Clinton's are racist, then I must be some monster in a white cape because I haven't dedicated decades to helping black communities.

Posted by: s.b. | Feb 15, 2008 10:27:22 AM

Is anyone in the DNC not concerned about Jessee Jackson and others pressuring black superdelegates to vote for Barack so that "the first black president" will get in office?

I'm highly disappointed and concerned. I thought America was beyond this mentality in the 21st century. This contest should be about the best qualified person leading our country - not race, gender, sex.

Concerned enough along with others to consider going to the other side to vote - Time to end all of this - I fear it will end up in our country becoming divided and in strife. There are already fights in schools, out about "black vs white." We've left the 60's behind us I thought. I thought we were American's first... plain/simple Americans...?

Disappointed in this presidential race for our democratic party.

Posted by: Betsy | Feb 15, 2008 10:28:25 AM

i am sick at the bias against hillary,but we do not hear any opposition to it,but oh yes its always racial, i will be praying and voting for hillary,her intellect, her experience make her the best candidate. i was under the impression good jounalism,was not biased. dee

Posted by: de | Feb 15, 2008 10:34:32 AM

The whites support Obama, because they don't want to be labeled racist. On the other hand, when 90% blacks vote for Obama for his race, it is brother and sister votes. The Hispanics and other races are free to vote whom they think the most qualified candidate. They pick the one who can deliver the promisses, not just the rhetoric with no substance. Hillary is the choice!

Posted by: tigerjcs | Feb 15, 2008 10:42:27 AM

I am so tired of the race card being played. Obama is only getting the votes cause he's a black man who talks like a preacher. If you forget that Obama is black and Clinton is a woman what do you have? Watch the debates and forget about the color and the sex and just listian to them both. Clinton is more factual and to the point where Obama beats around the bush. He may sound like JFK but look what happened to him. Do you really think times have changed that much where that wouldn't happen again? Clinton is the most experienced, the more to the point and she sure won't back down on anything. Not to mention the fact that how many married couples are there really where the woman dosen't wear the pants. Don't let her chest fool you, she is more aggresive then most men I know. If you vote for Obama you might as well throw your hands up in the air and hope to pray the good lord takes you soon before all hell breaks loose.

Posted by: KITOJJ | Feb 15, 2008 10:45:19 AM

A Response to Tim of | Feb 15, 2008 10:05:01 AM and others: It is unfortunate that people like who don't read, travel or do any research that make comments like Barack Obama never talks about his white mother. First of all, he doesn't need for someone like you to tell how to call his mother. She "was" his mother and not his "white mother." When she fed him, clothed him and provided the best edication that this country has to offer, she was his mother and not his "white" mother. Second, Barack has always (and I saw him do it at the JJ Dinner in Richmond,VA) talked about how he was raised by his mother and grandparents after his father left when he was two. If there is one about Sen. Obama, he has been very honest and clear about his past, present and what he wants to do for this country going forward. My only suggestion to you is that you read and do your research before make such "factually" inaccurate statement.

Lastly, the black race has never needed and will never need the Clintons, Bushes or Obamas to do for them what they can't do for themselves. Every black man or women is responsible to chart their own course for the future individually. Unfortunately, some of you are still living in the 1960's mindset. Barack may be black, but in the words of Colin Powell...he is an American man running for the presidency who happens to be BLACK. Likewise, Hillary is an American running for president who happens to be a WOMAN..and thank God for her also.

This is still the land of the "free" and the home of the brave.

Wake before history leaves your name of the roll.

Thanks

Dekonti

Posted by: Dekonti | Feb 15, 2008 10:46:56 AM


Media, you are responsible for the division of people and causing hatred between communities. No one asked you to give the breakdown of all these.

What do you benefit by seeing people devided or start hating each other? This is not what you are paid for. And I think those who are paying you, are not proud of the division you are creating right now.

Posted by: Peace | Feb 15, 2008 10:51:36 AM

Mr Obama is wet behind the ears in administative experience. He also has little exposure to any military involvement which Hillary got indirectly in the White House and Washington. His promises are backed by few if any explained plans of how to make them into reality! Lot of smoke screen saying things folks want to hear with any real study of what he is saying! Now he tackles her on the basis of finances when in his collections I feel sure are many questionable! Let's be objective about this election instead of jumping on a stylish trend bandwagon!

Posted by: TVCASTER | Feb 15, 2008 10:54:45 AM

Racists rush for their defence always. If you aint one just keep mum and all will be fine. In all this you must know that Hillary and Obama together with all the delegates are just but small players in a big game. Remember, the system knows how to adjust. If you push against it-you break. Do you think that all that USA has done inthis world-excellent or bad-has know effect on the big boys upstairs? Watch and see as they put in place the players. Get the sense, buddy and look at the big picture

Posted by: Alex | Feb 15, 2008 10:59:16 AM

Hillary says she has 35 years of Experience;Experience We Dont Need!

Posted by: Demo Rules | Feb 15, 2008 11:02:31 AM

Hillary says Words Are cheap!, Well thank you Hillary, for letting America know your speeches are meaningless

Posted by: Listen Up | Feb 15, 2008 11:06:35 AM

Hillary continues to sound like a broken with regards to her experience. Bill Clinton make a big "hoopla" about the 1990's and how it was great. Yes it was but who or what made it so...Timing and a Replublican Congress. What was Hillary's signature effort, a failed Healthcare Reform Program. Also, she talks about 35 years of experience and echoed by someone earlier. The only organization she has ever MANAGE is her campaign and look at it...Went out of Money mid-stream and her staff turning on eachother.

People wake up and see how how our country is going to be managed by Hillary...a broke federal government by the middle of the fiscal year and bitter infighting in government and the Congress.

But look at the "no name" candidate's campaign...flushed with cash raise from the grassroot and clear on strategic direction.

Yes Hillary, talk is really cheap!!!

Posted by: Dekonti | Feb 15, 2008 11:17:30 AM

Fellow Americans, let us not be cajoled by the words of the media. The media is so desperate to get Obama elected just because of their self interest and not for me or you. they see Obama as a novice that can be controlled. on the other hand, Hillary poses a threat to them. listen to both candidates and make your judgement. vote your conscience. it is an open wound, only truth can heal it. lastly, it does not matter if your supporter has lost ten or twenty primaries. still vote your conscience.

Posted by: tombay | Feb 15, 2008 11:21:12 AM

Top Reasons not to vote for Hillary; she says Obama's speeches, and talks, dont put food on the table, well I dont see her speeches and talk putting food on my table! She wont disclose her Income Tax Return, come on people that right there should tell you something is fishy! Her own Top 2 Campaign Managers got fired or stepped down!She is old Politics, under her 35 years of experience, has Washington changed any? No! "Hillary The Experience We Dont Need

Posted by: Demo Rules | Feb 15, 2008 11:30:25 AM

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