The Numbers
A Run at the Latest Data from ABC's Poobah of Polling, Gary Langer
Gary Langer is director of polling at ABC News, where he's covered the beat of public opinion for nearly 20 years - conducting and analyzing ABC News polls, evaluating data from other sources and setting the news division's standards for poll reporting. Langer is a two-time Emmy award winner, both for ABC's reporting of public opinion polls in Iraq.
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Turnout and the Youth Vote
February 08, 2008 11:12 AM
This note takes a look at turnout overall in primaries to date, and then tackles the question of turnout among young voters. In short, with the combined punch of an exciting race and earlier dates, turnout in Democratic races is up. Turnout among young voters, though, is a more complicated story – up in some Democratic races, but not in others.
TURNOUT OVERALL – It’s risen, especially in Democratic contests, and especially this week. Turnout on Tuesday peaked at 28 percent of eligible voters in the Massachusetts Democratic primary, more than double its 2004 level; 23 percent in Illinois, up from 14; and 20 percent in New Jersey, up from just 4 percent in the state’s June 2004 primary.
Turnout in Republican races was much lower, and generally did not increase sharply. Compared to 2000, it was up by 10 points in Alabama and Utah, and by 8 in Oklahoma and Arkansas, but down by 12 in New York and by 4 points in California.
All this is tabled below; figures are as a percentage of eligible voters, and reflect votes reported to date – there still are some absentee votes to add. Per AP's vote count, the totals to date are 18,984,677 in Democratic presidential primaries and caucuses; 12,862,478 in the Republican races.
Dem. Turnout Rep. Turnout
% of eligible voters
2008 2004 (date) 2008 2000 (date)
Super Tues - Primaries:
Mass. 28 13 (3/2) 11 11 (3/7)
Illinois 23 14 (3/16) 10 9 (3/21)
New Jersey 20 4 (6/8) 10 4 (6/6)
California 19 15 (3/2) 11 15 (3/7)
Missouri 19 10 (2/3) 14 12 (3/7)
Alabama 16 7 (6/1) 16 6 (8/6)
Georgia 17 11 (3/2) 15 12 (3/7)
Oklahoma 16 12 (2/3) 13 5 (3/14)
Delaware 16 6 (2/3) 8 6 (2/8)
Arkansas 14 13 (5/18) 10 2 (5/23)
Connecticut 14 5 (3/2) 6 8 (3/7)
New York 14 6 (3/2) 5 17 (3/7)
Tennessee 14 9 (2/10) 12 6 (3/14)
New Mexico 11 NA NA
Arizona 10 7 (3/3) 12 10 (2/22)
Utah 7 2 (2/27) 16 6 (3/10)
Super Tues – Caucuses:
Colorado 4 NA 2 6 (3/10)
Idaho 2 3 (5/25) NA
Kansas 2 NA NA
Minnesota 6 NA 2 1 (3/7)
North Dakota 4 NA 2 2 (2/29)
Wyoming NA 0.3 NA
Previous:
Iowa 11 6 (1/19) 5 4 (1/24)
New Hampshire 29 23 (1/27) 24 27 (2/1)
Michigan 8 NA 12 18 (2/22)
Nevada 7 NA 3 9 (3/21)
S.C. 17 9 (2/3) 14 20 (2/19)
Florida 14 6 (3/9) 15 7 (3/14)
YOUNG VOTERS – This leads us to the question of turnout among young voters. It’s gotten a lot of buzz since the Democratic race in Iowa, where young voters did turn out in disproportionately greater numbers, accounting for 22 percent of the party’s caucus-goers. But the story since then has been inconsistent, and Iowa remains the high-water mark.
The analytical challenge is that there are many ways to slice the pie. Overall, using what seems to us a reasonable approach, we’d say that on a state-by-state basis, turnout among voters under 30 is up a little in Democratic contests, and flat in Republican contests.
In probably the simplest way to do this, in all 2008 Democratic contests to date, 18- to 29-year-olds have accounted for 14 percent of voters. That compares to an average of 12 percent in 1992, for states for which we have exit poll data – 2 points higher this year. (It was lower in 2004, 9 percent, and 2000, 8 percent, but looks to have been higher in the 1980s.)
In Republican contests, young-voter turnout is 11 percent this year, vs. 12 percent in 1992 (and 10 percent in 1996, 9 percent in 2000).
Under 30s as % of all voters
Dem Rep
2008 14 11
2004 9 NA
2000 8 9
1996 NA 10
1992 12 12
Those are averages. A state-by-state evaluation shows a mixed pattern. All told, there are nine states in which Democratic turnout among young voters has been higher this year than its previous high going back to 1992 (by 2 or more points), eight flat and one down, with no data for the rest.
In Republican races, there are two in which young voter turnout has been up, six in which it’s been down, 10 flat, with no data for the rest.
Among some of the notable increases in Democratic races, young voters accounted for 16 percent of voters in California this week, up from 12 percent in 2000 and 11 percent in 2004 (but no higher than in 1984). It was 18 percent in Georgia, compared with a previous high (since 1992) of 15 percent. And it was 14 percent in South Carolina, compared with 9 percent in 2004.
Note, this looks at turnout among young voters as a percentage of all voters. In all those states where turnout was up overall, young people increased their turnout along with everybody else; the point is that while in some cases they did so disproportionately, in others they did not.
Here’s a list of turnout by 18- to 29-year-olds by state to date, with their previous highs in exit polls since 1992:
Under 30s as % of all voters Change
Dem Pvs.* Rep Pvs.* Dem Rep
Iowa 22 17 11 13 Up Down
Georgia 18 15 11 12 Up Flat
N.H. 18 17 14 15 Flat Flat
Michigan 17 14 13 13 Up Flat
Utah 17 NA 16 9 NA Up
California 16 12 10 12 Up Down
Illinois 15 14 10 10 Flat Flat
New York 15 10 9 9 Up Flat
Missouri 14 9 13 10 Up Up
Mass. 14 16 13 20 Down Down
New Jersey 13 8 8 8 Up Flat
Alabama 13 13 12 11 Flat Flat
Tennessee 13 9 11 13 Up Down
S.C. 14 9 10 10 Up Flat
Nevada 13 NA 11 NA NA NA
Delaware 10 9 NA NA Flat NA
Conn. 10 11 11 10 Flat Flat
Florida 9 8 7 10 Flat Down
Oklahoma 9 10 14 15 Flat Flat
Arkansas 9 NA 10 NA NA NA
New Mexico 8 NA NA NA NA NA
Arizona 8 7 6 9 Flat Down
*Previous high since 1992
An interesting aside is that while the youth vote is most closely associated with Barack Obama – he won under-30s nationally by 16 points, 57-41 percent – this was not the case in every state. In Arkansas and Oklahoma, Hillary Clinton won under 30s; in California and Massachusetts, she and Obama split them evenly. Obama has a clear lead in this group – but not a lock.
February 8, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (20)
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It don't mean anything unless it can swing the state's electoral votes at the big dance. Chances are red states will stay red and even pick one or more. What a great idea the Electoral College is....
Posted by: fred | Feb 8, 2008 11:26:50 AM
Obama is very rude, corrupt, shameless person. He is a divider rather than uniter .
He has been playing race card(Now he got he wanted, almost all African-Americans vote for him in every state), and playing games of JFK, MLK, Regan, now Ted Kennedy..
What next? Bush? YES.
Indeed He is another inexperienced, divisive BUSH, we American should block the his way to White House!
Posted by: frank | Feb 8, 2008 12:07:52 PM
I do get it when I watch the extra ordinary young generation turn out in 2008 election. This has a lot of meaning in it.
Why Older generation can not step aside, if at all they do love the young generation. Old generation, you have lived your time. You will once leave the life for the young ones. Why cant you realise this for the
sake of young ones. Your job is to guide them whenever they go wrong, but instead you are voting for the old generation to continue. This is, to my opinion "the sense of greedness".
Please understand the reality and stop pretending that you dont. We all were born, and we all one time will disappear.
Posted by: Peace | Feb 8, 2008 12:13:23 PM
How are you defining eligible voters? Do you mean voting age population? The non-institutionalized voting age population? Registered voters? Or active registered voters, i.e. those who have had some contact with the registrar -- by voting, changing address, or registering for the first time -- in the past four years?
Posted by: Phil Meyer | Feb 8, 2008 1:06:46 PM
Sen.Obama is the best chance we have got against sen.McCain.And looking at the turnout in this race for the dem nominee,he has pull out many voters than sen.Clinton.And to my opinion he will do a great job in uniting the country and make the world to look America in a different way.The youth have understand this and that is why they are backing sen.Obama.for president.
Posted by: daniels | Feb 8, 2008 1:08:08 PM
Such arrogance in the Democratic party. All this talk about bringing people together. Balderdash. Clinton uses the sex card - women. Obama uses the race card. Why? If everyone is equal then there is no reason for such assininity.
And neither candidate has any experience in the defense of this country. Choose Obama or Clinton and the dominoes will begin to fall - causing a total loss of our sovereignty as a nation. Come on in terrorists. You can drive, vote, and bomb us legally. Then you'll be able to begin the process toward Shariah right here. So sad.
Posted by: Steveo | Feb 8, 2008 2:23:08 PM
It seems to me these figures should be normalized to reflect changes in demographics over the years--i.e., proportion of eligible voters that fall into the under 30 category. I suspect that the CT results look different in part because of an aging population. At the end of the day, I don't think this will change the bottom line conclusion, but it would improve the analysis.
Posted by: keith | Feb 8, 2008 2:35:24 PM
obama is trying to be a martin luther king and he is not but tries to use any man's famous words to try to make him a good speaker even Pierre Trudeau's watch me comment To me he's a hot air bloome who should burst any time
Posted by: ERICH | Feb 8, 2008 3:27:58 PM
I am so happy of the youth coming out to vote for Obama because he truly represent the younger voters. Obama is going bring in alot of younger generation to his cabinet if elected president I am tired looking at the same old politicians who are not getting anything did in the United States. Youth for Obama
Posted by: Dre Atlanta | Feb 8, 2008 5:35:50 PM
Have Any of These Obama Voters read the Document "OBAMA EXPOSED" So many people vote with emotions and don't ask the hard questions. This is America and Our Country is at War. I Just Ask All of You to at Least Look into OBAMA and what he's voted for - his yeas and neys - He's a Great Speaker but all Smoke & Mirrors
Posted by: kath | Feb 8, 2008 7:23:13 PM
We don't need a president to tell us what we need or to tell us what to do! We need someone that'll point out instead, what needs to be done! ...Then we , together , can do it and then it shall be done. Team work like anywhere else. It's not the individual effort that'll make the difference, it's the effort of the individual and keeping their word as we are to keep ours to God and country, the little children shall not suffer again what their fathers' did, but shall inherit the earth and it will prosper. I hope they'll see the day. They are our future and they are depending on us to decide as mature adults without bias, prejudiced, opinion, attitude, criticism, sarcasm, skepticism, cynicism, and anything else that makes us know-it-alls; something you didn't need when you were growing up and something they don't need growing up now. You want to have fun slamming the system, get a job , pay taxes, raise a family, see the world, work in a homeless shelter, volunteer for something less selfish and see how the world really works! Let what you have as a talent be used for challenging the system instead of a habit they already know you for. I don't want to be set up again because the party system is too busy denying the IS and pocketing the money having us researched and rehabed. I want to be a free country again and safe and respected...
Posted by: lukout09 | Feb 8, 2008 11:37:07 PM
I think Obama is a inspiring canidate who can help America realise its true potential. He is once in a life time breed and i hope both democrats and American realise this opportunity doesn't come along everyday, and capture the moment.
He has convinced me that America has still got better days to come and hasn't reached its treshold of achievement. He is the best chance democrat has to challenge McCain
Posted by: Cecil Decker | Feb 9, 2008 3:57:36 AM
America, the time has come to bring in a New Generation Of Poltics.Its out with the old and in with the new! The tactics and ways of the old politics is over, Obama will ursher in the New.
Posted by: Demo Rules | Feb 9, 2008 6:38:39 AM
The Time for Change Is Now! All the younger Voters need to come out in force! The Hillary backers cant crasp a change for New, they want to hold on to the old!
Posted by: Demo Rules | Feb 9, 2008 11:54:04 AM
Any young person who votes for Mcain or Huckabee,is obviously brainwashed or braindead. Ron Paul is a good choice. Use your brain,don't listen to pastors or hate radio morons who spew lies and deceptions.They are biased.Don't follow these charlatins.America needs a future,without wars or a Taliban like society living in the dark ages.
Posted by: AJ | Feb 9, 2008 3:46:52 PM
to Frank and Steveo:
Frank - Clinton is the one that said it took a (white) President to get done what MLK tried to do. Barack's response was that it was "an unfortunate statement" The response from the Black community was "it was a racist statement"-- the implication being that black people can't get anything done without white folks help. I"m sure you're not an idiot Frank - the implications are clear. However since she didn't just come out and say it - she cannot be labeled as such. It's a clever game that has been played since i was a child and I've seen it over and over.
Steveo -- ever wonder why there are terrorists? ever wonder why people spend there whole lives trying to destroy the US. In order to cure a problem you have to get to the root cause and eliminate that cause. Like cancer if you just treat it with radiation (or bullets) there's a chance of it coming back because you really have not eliminated the reason for it in the first place.
I know, i know, they hate us because they're jealous. We're the infidels. Ponder this: I'm a black woman that went to Beverly Hills high school -- did not sense an ounce of racism -- know why? Because these people were HAPPY, they didn't have the time for all that hate - they were happy. Before Beverly I went to a poor school, predominately white -- they couldn't stand me. hmmmmm....
t---r-----y a----n----d c---o--n---n---e---c---t t----h----e d---o---t----s
Posted by: TheUrbanRevolution | Feb 9, 2008 7:05:42 PM
Obama uses JFK's speechwriter, Ted Sorensen. His national finance chair is BILLIONAIRE Penny Pritzker and he's backed by the same-old political machine that he professes to be against.
He has stolen the United Farm Workers slogan "Si se puede (Yes We Can), as well as Ron Paul's "Hope for America.
He says he stands for the grassroots, but he's an elitist who sends his children to the PRIVATE school.
He's a phony backstabber who voted "present" 129 times and admitted to hitting the "wrong" button 6 times when he was in the Illinois state legislature. - Is that what you call "right and ready from the start"?
Posted by: ddr | Feb 9, 2008 8:24:28 PM
It just keeps getting deeper, thanks for the input ddr, no, not right from the start and if he is right, come back around, later.
Posted by: callenfallen | Feb 11, 2008 7:20:07 PM
I am so excited to see so many youth taking an interest in voting. It scares me though how easily they are swayed by emotions. We all agree we need change after the current administration. Mr Obama is great at reaching our youth but he just lacks the experience to follow thru right now. He preaches change, change, change but has no clear cut plan. I fear we are headed for a "hot mess" as my young friends would say.
Posted by: misse | Feb 12, 2008 8:28:54 AM
As a Hispanic here in Texas i have yet to hear any other Hispanic saying that they will vote for Obama. He is sounding to much like a Motivational speaker, We don't want speeches about hopes and dreams, we want real talk about results and wath you will do for us. As Hispanics, we always get people talking about our hopes and dreams for the last 40 years. No more promises, we want someone who will stop talking down to us and talk to us about real results. Obama has talked about using drugs, why in the hell would he do something like that? I teach my kids to do the right things, so how do i explain that you can use drugs and still run for President Of The United States? I also have a problem with his "present" votes. We need a real leader, not someone who's scared to take a stance against anything.
Posted by: Tex-Mex | Feb 21, 2008 9:12:10 PM
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