The Numbers
A Run at the Latest Data from ABC's Poobah of Polling, Gary Langer
Gary Langer is director of polling at ABC News, where he's covered the beat of public opinion for nearly 20 years - conducting and analyzing ABC News polls, evaluating data from other sources and setting the news division's standards for poll reporting. Langer is a two-time Emmy award winner, both for ABC's reporting of public opinion polls in Iraq.
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November
March 31, 2008 2:02 PM
Despite the intense interest, we’re urging our shop not to put too much weight on general election polling just yet; November is a long way off, and the continued bloodletting in the Democratic race makes it a less-than-ideal time to ask Democrats, or independents for that matter, their preference in the fall contest.
As it is, overall data don’t seem to show significant movement. Averaging airworthy national polls in each of the last three months points to a continued dead heat between John McCain and Hillary Clinton, and a dead heat between McCain and Obama in January and March, after a slight advantage for Obama during his successful February. (Table below.) Looking just at the second half of March doesn’t change the story.
Average of airworthy national polls
Obama vs. McCain Clinton vs. McCain
March 45-45 46-46
February 48-43 45-47
January 44-45 46-47
Gallup’s latest five-day tracking poll, completed Saturday (it’s been tracking daily since March 11), is a little better for McCain,- +4 vs. Clinton and +3 vs. Obama. Both are significant given the large sample sizes, but all the same it seems way too soon to mark this down as a trend.
Some airworthy state polls show close races in some states that are usually Democratic, or strategically important – Clinton just +3 vs. McCain in California and Connecticut, McCain +4 vs. Clinton and just -1 vs. Obama in Ohio, both Democrats +2 vs. McCain in Pennsylvania (all these are effectively dead heats, given sampling tolerances). The latest in Florida (not terribly recent - from late February) had McCain +9 vs. Clinton and +10 vs. Obama.
The Democratic contest, again, is the one in which the fight is still raging. It’s not a great time to ask Obama and Clinton supporters whether they’ll kiss and make up after it’s all over. And some independents, generally chary of partisanship, may be turned off by the ongoing battle.
But partisans on both sides usually bind their wounds once their nominating contests are over, and independents make their choice on the candidates’ merits, not on what they endured to get there. All this suggests general election polling will mean a lot more down the road - once we have nominees.
March 31, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (10)
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According to Rasmussen, McCain is now in a virtual tie with Obama in terms of electoral votes. That's a change in just the last few weeks!
Posted by: Surelock Homes | Mar 31, 2008 2:35:51 PM
No kissing and no making up on this side. The Dems are absolute morons who earn every loss they receive. Only one two-term president since Harry Truman. Pathetic. Never seen a group so intent on losing. It's absolutely amazing. Every 4 years, the same old story: LET'S LOSE!
Posted by: tony | Mar 31, 2008 2:40:00 PM
I will be voting for Hillary.
She will beat McCain.
Obama is a empty speech.
A vote for America is a Vote Against Obama
Posted by: seah | Mar 31, 2008 2:43:14 PM
Hillary Clinton is the only Democrat that can take on the Republcian attack machine, attract centrist Democrats and independents and win the general election by forming a coalition. Barack Obama will lose as his base is the AA community and the latte drinking liberals- there are not enough of those to win the general election
Posted by: American Voter | Mar 31, 2008 3:46:04 PM
People want to be selective when reading the polls. In addition to NH, examples of possible poll bias against Hillary Clinton is winning Texas by 3.5% versus 1.7% RCP poll, and winning OHIO by 10.1% versus 7.1% RCP poll.
John McCain is now beating Barack Obama Nationally, Pennsylvania, Florida (+8) and OHIO (+5). Barack Obama used to be ahead of McCain before.
Even with a bad week, Hillary Clinton is either ahead or competitive in all 4 RCP polls, NL, PA, FL and OH.
The FL polls are showing the backlash against the Democrats, specially against Obama electability in Florida, where McCain is ahead of Obama by an average of 8%.
The backlash against Barack Obama as per the polls may be the reason Dr. Howard Dean commented after the meeting with the Florida delegation:
Dr. Dean said: "We are committed to making sure that we do everything in our power to seat a delegation from Florida," "We believe we will seat a delegation from Florida."
Obama supporters should stop calling Florida voters "Rules breakers", and their candidate should agree to a compromise sooner rather than later.
Posted by: Angel | Apr 2, 2008 2:05:15 PM
The latest CBS/NY Times poll among all registered voters shows some changes post Obama pastor controversy:
The last two CBS/NY Times Polls among independents:
March 15-18: Obama 43 % and Clinton 29% (Obama +14)
March 28-Apr 2nd: Obama 36% and Clinton 33% (stat. tie)
The last two CBS/NY Times Polls among Republicans:
March 15-18: Obama 27 % and Clinton 35% (Clinton +8)
March 28-Apr 2nd: Obama 40 % and Clinton 23% (Obama +17)*
*The poll quote:
"(of, course, that can just as easily be due to Republicans thinking Obama might be easier to beat as Republicans liking his candidacy
Posted by: Angel | Apr 3, 2008 10:39:37 PM
It now seems almost certain that the Clinton/Obama battle will end in May or early June at the latest, regardless of the Clinton's insistence that it continue to the convention. And it appears almost certain that Obama will be the nominee
For those who still are not sure about Obama, I respectfully recommend the following thoughtful and informative magazine articles for readers' perusal; they are online and in libraries.
Newsweek, March 31st: Obama cover story, "The Obama Dividend", other articles.
Rolling Stone, March 20th: Obama cover story, other articles.
New York Review of Books, current (April 17th) issue has an article on the two candidates, Clinton and Obama, entitled "Molehill Politics", by Elizabeth Drew. Article accompanied by a great caricature.
Atlantic Monthly, December issue: Obama cover story, "Goodbye To All That: Why Obama Matters" by Andrew Sullivan, other articles.
Posted by: goodbyetoallthat | Apr 7, 2008 7:58:47 PM
PENNSYLVANIA: OHIO-LIKE?
We all remember the CNN headline on March3rd "Poll of polls: Close races in Ohio and Texas" indicating "CNN) – Barack Obama holds a slight edge in Texas while Hillary Clinton is on top in Ohio,"..."Clinton is 5 points ahead of Obama in Ohio"..However, CNN poll of polls was not as bad as Reuters/CSPAN/Zogby poll after predicting Obama -Clinton tie (44%-44%) for the OHIO Primary.
Hillary Clinton (not Obama) won Texas by 3.5% and Ohio by 10.1% (not 5%). So, the CNN and other headlines claiming that the Pennsylvania race is tightening should be looked with caution.
The Pennsylvania polls had shown a tight race before, with the Rasmussen Poll showing Clinton leading by only 4% on Feb 26 and the Quinnipiac Poll showing Clinton leading by only 6% on Feb 21.
I agree with many of analysts predicting that Pennsylvania voters demographics are very similar to OHIO, and the polls/trends are identical.
For instance, using Real Clear Politics (RCP) polls a month+ before their primaries showed the following:
01/23 to 02/21 before OHIO, RCP listed 7 polls with Clinton +14.14%.
03/12 to 03/31 before PA, RCP listed 8 polls with Clinton +14.6%;
More similarity between OHIO and PA polls/trends:
14-10 Days before OH primary, RCP listed 7 polls with Clinton +7% average
14-10 days before PA Primary, RCP listed 9 polls with Clinton +7.3%.
We will know the next few days if the Pennsylvania polls will follow Ohio polls trend.
9-4 days before OH primary, RCP listed 9 polls with Clinton +5 average
6-0 Days before OH primary, RCP listed 8 polls with Clinton +7.1 average
Hillary Clinton won OHIO by 10.1%
Notwithstanding the opinion polls, the April 22nd PA primary will count, yes indeed.
Posted by: Angel | Apr 12, 2008 5:02:32 PM
PENNSYLVANIA: OHIO-LIKE?, Cont.
The new Quinnipiac PA Poll with Clinton 50-Obama 44 may confirm the trends that Pennsylvania is OHIO-LIKE.
The Quinnipiac Polls before March 4th OHIO Primary was Clinton 49-Obama 45 with Clinton winning by 10.1%.
Using Quinnipiac PA Poll numbers (Political Punch) compared with OHIO Exit Polls.
Quinnipiac PA Poll/White voters for Clinton 57 - 37 percent;
(OHIO EXIT POLL: 58-31 WHITE MALE;
67-31 WHITE FEMALE)
Quinnipiac PA Poll/Women voters for Clinton 54 -40;
(OHIO EXIT POLL: 57-31)
Quinnipiac PA Poll/Voters over 45 for Clinton 55 - 40;
(OHO EXIT POLL: AGES 45-59 (57-42) and
AGES 60 and older (69-28))
Quinnipiac PA Poll/Black voters for Obama 86 - 8 percent;
(OHIO EXIT POLL: 88-12)
Quinnipiac PA Poll/Men voters for Obama 51 - 43 percent;
(OHIO EXIT POLL: 48-50)
Quinnipiac PA Poll/Voters under 45 for Obama 55 - 39.
(OHIO EXIT POLL: AGES 17-29 (61-35) and
Ages 30-44 (50-50)
The OHIO Polls during the same time (13-8 days) before the primary using 7 polls listed by Real Clear Politics (RCP) was Clinton +7.4%
The PA Polls this time using 5 polls listed by RCP is Clinton +8.6%.
Most polls during the 2008 primaries have shown that late voters consistently voted for Hillary Clinton over Barack Obama.
7 Days to the Pennsylvania primary is like an eternity in politics.
Posted by: Angel | Apr 15, 2008 9:11:32 PM
Angel:
Interesting bit of work you did there.
But a 5-10% win will do NOTHING for Hillary Clinton, though she could argue that 10 is equal to double digits and stay in. But she'll need more than 10% in any future races -- more like 20% in ALL of them, for it to have ANY impact with the SuperD's.
Obama can, and will, win in November.
Posted by: Jackt51 -- Vietnam Vet and Proud Liberal | Apr 18, 2008 4:32:43 PM
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