The Numbers
A Run at the Latest Data from ABC's Poobah of Polling, Gary Langer
Gary Langer is director of polling at ABC News, where he's covered the beat of public opinion for nearly 20 years - conducting and analyzing ABC News polls, evaluating data from other sources and setting the news division's standards for poll reporting. Langer is a two-time Emmy award winner, both for ABC's reporting of public opinion polls in Iraq.
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Is it Age?
April 24, 2008 11:45 AM
In the midst of the current discussion of the role of race in the campaign (see yesterday’s blog) comes the curious suggestion from Sen. Obama that his chief challenge is about age, not socioeconomic status. The data don’t seem to bear it out.
As The New York Times reports today: "‘Our problem has less to do with white working-class voters,’ Mr. Obama told reporters Wednesday in Indiana. ‘In fact the problem is that – to the extent that there is a problem – is that older voters are very loyal to Senator Clinton.’"
Age clearly is a factor, as we’ve covered before. But it’s equally clear that socioeconomic status, as measured by the education and income alike, is independently a factor, and a big one. That’s why we’ve focused on SES in the past, e.g. here and here.
Look just at seniors, for instance: Across all primaries to date, among less well-off white seniors (those with less than $50,000 in household incomes), Clinton has beaten Obama by 70-22 percent. Among white seniors with more than $100,000 in household incomes, by contrast, Obama’s actually run ahead, by 50-45 percent.
Put another way, Obama’s support from high-income white seniors has been 28 points higher than it’s been among working-class white seniors. That isn’t just a senior problem.
The results are similar by education – Obama does 21 points better with white seniors who’ve earned college degrees than with those who haven’t. College-educated white seniors have favored Clinton by just 8 points, 50-42 percent; those without degrees have backed her by a whopping 48 points, 69-21 percent.
The relationship is weakest in Obama’s best age group, under 30s, but it’s still there. He’s won under-30 whites in $100,000+ households by 65-33 percent; he’s won young whites in under-$50,000 households by a much closer 53-42 percent.
And the effect holds true in middle age groups as well: For example, Obama’s done 17 points better with white 30- to 44-year-olds who’ve gotten through college than with those who haven’t; and 14 points better with those age 45-64 who’ve been graduated.
It’s surely the case that Obama’s not connected as well as Clinton with seniors. But his relative shortfall with working-class voters is an issue in and of itself – especially if he’s the party’s nominee in November. Primaries attract an upscale crowd; in this year’s Democratic contests, 52 percent of white voters have been college graduates. There tend to be fewer of them in general elections – 44 percent in 2004. To compensate, improving his appeal to lower-SES voters - regardless of their age - is on Obama's plate.
Among whites
Clinton-Obama
No college
18-29 43-53%
30-44 56-37
45-64 63-30
65+ 69-21College grad
18-29 37-59
30-44 42-54
45-64 52-44
65+ 50-42<$50K
18-29 42-53
30-44 48-44
45-64 64-30
65+ 70-22$50K-$100K
18-29 45-50
30-44 48-47
45-64 57-36
65+ 55-34$100K+
18-29 33-65
30-44 45-51
45-64 52-44
65+ 45-50
April 24, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (60)
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He is right. Age is the factor even Jenna Bush is not keen to vote for McCain!
Posted by: Peace | Apr 24, 2008 12:03:00 PM
Don't you think he may want to focus on the difference between age because that is an issue where he doesn't have to do like Hillary (an ivy league, multi-millionaire woman who has not had to drive herself for 30 years and doesn't realize that many working class people can't figure out there budgets now nevermind if you throw in a stipend with a tax cut)...
Barack would rather now spin who he is (you know the guy who fought for people who lost their jobs from factory closings instead of taking a high powered attorney job...but that has been spun into an elitist)...
I think he wants to focus on demographics that are not about "acting" don't you think.
His policies speak to the older generations more easily without playing the game...they speak to blue collar too if they could get through the whole attack spin...
There IS a big difference between the older and younger vote just as there is a difference in economic level but one you are more likely to play old politics and acting... one you just need to make them feel more comfortable with something new...not the brand that for good or bad they are comfortable with....and that is what I think he wants to focus on in the overall picture don't you.
That dems have grown complacent with the Cllintons as their leaders of the party...but yet the Clintons and the bush's are the ones who created this car that's driving us to national destruction.
Posted by: dl | Apr 24, 2008 12:15:03 PM
The age claim is what's known as bait and switch.
It's the white working class he's having trouble with.
Posted by: s.b. | Apr 24, 2008 12:15:51 PM
Don't you think he may want to focus on the difference between age because that is an issue where he doesn't have to do like Hillary (an ivy league, multi-millionaire woman who has not had to drive herself for 30 years and doesn't realize that many working class people can't figure out there budgets now never mind if you throw in a stipend with a tax cut) playing like she is something she is not...
Barack would rather not spin who he is (you know the guy who fought for people who lost their jobs from factory closings instead of taking a high powered attorney job...but that has been spun into an elitist)...
I think he wants to focus on demographics that are not about "acting" don't you think.
His policies speak to the older generations more easily without playing the game...they speak to blue collar too if they could get through the whole attack spin...
There IS a big difference between the older and younger vote just as there is a difference in economic level but one you are more likely to play old politics and acting... one you just need to make them feel more comfortable with something new...not the brand that for good or bad they are comfortable with....and that is what I think he wants to focus on in the overall picture don't you.
That dems have grown complacent with the Cllintons as their leaders of the party...but yet the Clintons and the bush's are the ones who created this car that's driving us to national destruction.
Posted by: dl | Apr 24, 2008 12:16:44 PM
It's not age.
It's not racism.
It's not sexism
It's the issues and the candidates willingness to address those issues.
That's why Hillary is souring.
All that's left is for Obama to sling more mud!
Posted by: Surelock Homes | Apr 24, 2008 12:17:16 PM
I don't think white seniors like change. They know Hillary and don't want to think about learning anything about Obama, which is sad in itself. As we all can see, those who have an education have research and chose Obama over Hillary because they know she cannot beat McCain and she is NOT a peacmaker.S he is a argumentative person and has a no compromise attitude. Look what she did to health care in the Clinton years. Unfortunately, I truly believe that with the Clintons negative advertizing and no support from the working class, our best hope to pull this country up, will be gone. Hillary will be handed the nom. this summer and we will have McCain ( Bush) for 4 more years. She cannot beat him. If you think Obama has a "closet" full of questions, wait until they opne Hillarys...
Posted by: cindyct | Apr 24, 2008 12:18:42 PM
The obvious fact is that Obama is simply
a weaker candidate than Clinton or McCain...
Posted by: rita | Apr 24, 2008 12:33:21 PM
Obama is 1/2 white & I doubt he hates himself. most of the hate comes from the Griffin family
Posted by: speak | Apr 24, 2008 12:37:38 PM
The older voters are very loyal to Sen Clinton. That's true because they had a very good harvest when Clinton was the president.
The young voters are also very loyal to him even they don't know about his issues .
They don't have problems with health and economy issues yet, they are too young.
Posted by: crisis08 | Apr 24, 2008 12:51:58 PM
I am 31 and i would with 4 other women in their 50's and 60's. They are for Hillary. They say he is too young.
Posted by: marie | Apr 24, 2008 12:57:05 PM
I think the real swing vote is the Catholic vote.
If Obama cannot capture more of the Catholic vote, he will lose.
Hillary Clinton is now getting 68% of the catholic vote nationwide. Obama is only getting 16%,
Also, in the general election, Hillary Supporters (28%) said if Obama is the democratic candidate they will vote for McCain. Aslo 16% of Hillary Supporters said they would not vote. Yet, 68% of Obama supporters said that if Hillary was the democratic candidate in the primary, they would vote for Obama.
It looks like if Obama is nominated, he will probably lose, because again, the Catholic voters and the Hillary supporters will go to McCain.
Please wake up democrates and Superdelegates, give your support to HIllary. She is the only one whom will get us to the Whitehouse.
The terrible negative Republican ads running now in North Carolina against Obama are horrific. Yet, they are true about him, and will be playing all the way to the primary and beyond.
Posted by: mary | Apr 24, 2008 12:58:03 PM
Of coirse, they are the one who saw the prosperous time in America during the Clinton years. The younger genrations like the emotions and joining the fraternity of Obama just for the sake of the hung of it. They don't think anymore. They want to join the wagon just for the sake of joining it.
Also, don't get fooled if Obama wins North Carolina, just in case, since African American are solid to Obama (9 to 1, shame on them, obviously racial) not like white americans who thinks and are fair.
Richardson cannot be trusted and a traitor. Don't vote for him when runs for a Senator. He belongs to Wright, Rezco and Ayer who join any rgoup or fraternity where he will benefit and not the Americans.
Obama’s motto and theme should be Pay per Vote. Obama overspent in Pennsylvannia and still came out the loser.
Look at the facts as to how strong Hillary is:
Obama lost in Pennsylvannia in spite of endorsement by a Senator and overspending in ads, 5 to 1.
Obama lost in Texas and Ohio even overspending in ads and manipulating info in Ohio.
Obama lost in California even though Oprah, Maria Shriver, and Katherine Kennedy endorsed him.
Obama lost Massachusetts even though Kennedy and John Kerry endorsed him.
Hillary won the big states and has more electoral college votes to date than Obama that is crucial in November.
Obama lost the big states even though the media is most of the time unfair with Hillary and always positive to Obama.
Wake up superdelegates! You will make the right choice if you pick Hillary.
Obama mocked the Pennsylvannians and the entire nation, which is so irresponsible and very degrading to all Americans. He is just like Wright who mocked the Americans and like Rezco and Ayers who we can’t trust.
Wake up superdelegates!
Posted by: Alfredo | Apr 24, 2008 1:05:19 PM
Women in their 50's and 60's want to see a woman elected president in their lifetimes. It's pure vanity. They will vote for Bill Clinton's wife. Their husbands will stay home.
Posted by: J Robinson | Apr 24, 2008 1:09:30 PM
To correct my above post: I ment to say that 685 of the Obama supporters said they would vote for Hillary, if Hillary was the democratic nominee. Yet, Hillary supporters said, if Obama was the democratic nominee, they would switch parties (28%) and vote for McCain, and 16% of the hillary supporters would not vote at all.
Posted by: mary | Apr 24, 2008 1:10:02 PM
J Robinson that is exactly what the women said that I work with. That they are so excited to vote for women. Britney Spears could be running and i swear they would still vote.
Posted by: marie | Apr 24, 2008 1:11:17 PM
I ment above 68%
Posted by: mary | Apr 24, 2008 1:11:38 PM
Mary that makes me think those who would not support Obama if he gets the nomination are not true democrats. I voted for Obama but IF Hillary would gtet the nom i would vote for her. To do otherwise would allow a Republican back in.
Posted by: marie | Apr 24, 2008 1:13:39 PM
Obama will not win the nomination. Superdelegates are on pins and needles now with Obama not able to win the big states, even with his 5 to 1 spending on ads and campaigning stratagies.
Posted by: mary | Apr 24, 2008 1:13:48 PM
Why is everyone talking about race when it comes to who the white population is voting for when the fact is that the majority of the black population is voting for Sen. Obama.
Does anyone really believe that considering the canditates for this election the black population after years of voting for a white man will actually vote for a WHITE WOMAN no matter what her credentials are.
Racism has always been is a two way street.
Posted by: Angel | Apr 24, 2008 1:19:07 PM
I have to believe that part of Obama's problem is his race. Unfortunately, our country still has a problem with the black people. Also, there is this misconception that he is a Muslim; and there are people who refuse to believe otherwise. People latch on to negative ideas much quicker and for much longer than positive ideas. I wish people would rise above the prejudices and hate and see a person for who he or she might really be.
Posted by: Jordan | Apr 24, 2008 1:19:35 PM
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