The Numbers
A Run at the Latest Data from ABC's Poobah of Polling, Gary Langer
Gary Langer is director of polling at ABC News, where he's covered the beat of public opinion for more than 15 years – conducting and analyzing ABC News polls, evaluating data from other sources and setting the news division's standards for poll reporting. He's the first and only pollster to win a News Emmy, for his second national survey of public opinion in Iraq.
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Issues and Attributes
April 18, 2008 1:40 PM
The demand for substance in our election campaigns is a worthy one. The suggestion that the candidates’ personal attributes fall outside that realm is not.
That’s particularly so in primaries. General election contests largely are defined by partisanship and policy issues on which the competing candidates tend to be starkly different. In nominating campaigns, by contrast, candidates generally have much more in common politically - clearing the way for the importance of personal attributes to rise.
So it is today in the Democratic race for president, where the sharpest divisions and the greatest changes have come not on issues but in views of the candidates’ personal qualities. We’ve seen huge swings in Hillary Clinton’s ratings on measures such as electability, leadership, and honesty and trustworthiness. And personal attributes are at least as powerful as issue preferences in predicting vote choice.
The biggest change in our latest ABC/Post poll is in electability – arguably not a trivial matter to Democrats thirsting for the White House. In December, before the voting began, 59 percent of Democrats (and Democratic-leaning independents) picked Clinton as the candidate with the best chance to win the general election. Today half as many still pick her. Obama’s rating as more electable meanwhile has soared from 16 percent then (John Edwards was still running at the time) to 62 percent now.
There are others: In December 27 percent saw Obama as more honest and trustworthy than either Clinton or Edwards; today, head-to-head against Clinton, twice as many pick Obama on this measure. Obama’s rating as the stronger leader has gone from 19 percent in December to 44 percent now; Clinton’s, in the same period, has lost 12 points. On empathy – better understanding the problems of people like you – preference for Obama has nearly doubled since December, while Clinton has slipped slightly. On experience, by contrast – but only on experience – Clinton continues clearly to prevail.
There have been big swings on the issues as well. In December Clinton led by 45 points in trust to handle health care; today, it’s down to 10 points. She led by 27 points in trust to handle terrorism; today it’s 5. On the economy she’s gone from +40 to -3; on Iraq, from +25 to a dead heat.
But issue preferences in and of themselves do not explain the contest. The candidates are essentially even on the issues, save for Clinton’s diminished lead on health care. Yet they are not tied in voter preferences; Democrats by a 10-point margin say they’d like Obama to win the nomination.
There are a variety of factors that push Obama into the lead, some policy-based, some thematic, but also some focused on assessments of the candidates’ personal qualities. In regression analyses evaluating the candidates’ ratings on issues and attributes alike, attributes are at least as strong, and in most cases stronger, in predicting vote preference.
Attributes, then, are hardly a sideshow. Like views on the issues, they represent fundamental evaluations formed by the voters and used in vote choices. They’re a significant part of what campaigns – especially primary campaigns – are all about.
April 18, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (22)
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The Obama Dilemma
I am a liberal, middle-aged, white woman. I want to make that clear from the beginning. I really want to see a Democrat in the White House. I would really like to see diversity in the White House—diversity of race, religion, and gender. I would like to see the elected officials in this country reflect the diversity of the people they represent.
Many things about Obama are very appealing. His message of racial unity—that we should focus on those things that unite us—is very appealing. After all, we really all want the same things: economic security, good educations for our children, protection from criminals and terrorists, affordable quality healthcare, and security in our old age. And what better person to heal the racial divisions in this country than a man who is half black and half white, a man who understands the viewpoints of both blacks and whites? Obama is well-educated and well-spoken. I admire that Obama is out there trying to make a difference in the world when so many of us just sit around and complain about the way things are. Obama’s education and career show how far we have come toward racial equality in this country. I agree with Obama on the majority of the issues. On the surface, he seems like the perfect candidate. However, some of the comments Obama has made seem to contradict his stated belief in racial unity.
First of all, I want to say that I don’t think it is reasonable for anybody to expect Obama to be totally free of negative feelings towards white people. His grandmother told him she was afraid of black men. That is bound to bring up some unpleasant feelings for him. Obama himself has said that he has been criticized for being too black and that he has been criticized for being too white. That too must be painful. He must have many more memories of times that he has been treated unfairly because of his race. The history of blacks in America is the story of slavery, segregation, economic inequality, and insufficient representation among public officials. He should be angry about how blacks have been treated in this country. Every decent human being should be angry at how blacks have been treated in this country.
I don’t think the question should be whether or not Obama has some negative feelings towards whites. The question is what does he do with these feelings? Do these feelings make him want to fight discrimination of all kinds? Will he fight discrimination against whites just as passionately as he fight discrimination against blacks because he really wants to heal the racial divide in the country? Will he stand up and say that if we do not want others to judge us based on our race, if we do not want others to mistrust us because of our race, if we do not want others to hate us because of our race, then we must not judge others based on their race, we must not spread mistrust of other races, and we must not hate those of other races? Will Obama tell everyone in this county that if we are to heal the racial divide in this county, each and every one of us must say the hate stops with me?
Or, will Obama take these memories of past injustices, both personal and historical, and be bitter towards whites? Does he believe that most whites hate blacks? Does he harbor hatred and mistrust of whites deep down in his soul? How can we judge what is in the man’s heart? Some things Obama has said and done make me uneasy.
Obama said that his white grandmother “is a typical white person. If she sees somebody on the street that she doesn't know - there's a reaction in her that's been bred into our experiences that don't go away and sometimes come out in the wrong way and that's just the nature of race in our society.” Does Obama really believe white people have a negative inbred reaction to people that are different than them? How can he hope to help heal the racial divide in this country if he feels this way about white people?
``They cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren't like them, or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations,'' Obama said at an April 6 fundraiser in San Francisco.
When I first heard this quote, all of the commentators focused on the word “bitter.” Oh, Obama called small town folk bitter. Well, the Bush administration’s policies have made all kinds of people bitter about all kinds of things. Who can object to his use of the word bitter? Then, people focused on the part about people clinging to guns and religion because of bitterness about the economy. Clearly, people have reason to object to that. But, I have not heard much commentary about the end of the quote-- the part about the small town antipathy to people who are different to themselves. I think this is the most objectionable part of the quote. Again, Obama is stereotyping white people. Again, he seems to think all white people are against anybody who is different to them. I object to this stereotype. If he objects to black stereotypes, then he should not be spreading negative stereotypes himself.
I am bothered by Obama’s long association with the Reverend Jeremiah Wright and the Trinity United Church of Christ. As all of you know, the Rev. Wright has a long history of making racist and anti-American comments. I think we can all sympathize with Wright’s feelings to some extent. The man can remember when blacks had to sit on the back of the bus. He can remember having to use separate restrooms and water fountains and lunch counters. He can remember the assassination of Dr. King. However, when Rev. Wright says that the U.S. developed AIDS to kill black people and when he says the U.S. government gives illegal drugs to black youth so that they can imprison them, then the Rev, Wright is telling lies. Rev. Wright is spreading the racism that he claims to oppose. When Trinity’s congregation fails to oppose these comments, they too are propagating the racial hatred that they claim to despise. They are acting just like the white racists. Rev. Wright should tell his people that the black community does not make progress by spreading hate. The black community does not make progress by blaming others for its problems. The black community makes progress when its members become well-educated, make successful careers for themselves, and when they become active in political life—yes, like what Obama has done. Obama is right when he tells black youth to turn off the TV and start studying. Rev. Wright should be addressing the race issue by spreading the basic tenets of Christianity: do unto others as you would have them do unto you, forgive as you wish to be forgiven, love thy neighbor.
Obama’s wife seems to be full of bitterness towards whites. She said for the first time in her life she is proud of this country. She says this is a mean country.
When Obama is alone with his wife, does he say anything at all to his wife about these comments? Does he remain silent? Does he say, Honey, please try not to say things that will hurt my chances of being elected? Does he voice agreement with her statements? Does he say my darling I understand you have painful memories of past injustices? I know you are angry about the historical injustices done to blacks in this country. But the only way we can end racial hatred in this country is by refusing to hate. Only then can we heal the racial divide in this country. What does Obama say to his girls about their mother’s statements? Does he remain silent? Does he tell them he agrees with her? Does he tell them, I love your beautiful, intelligent mother, but on this issue she is wrong? We must not fear and hate the whites. We must not spread distrust. We must treat them as we wished to be treated—as individuals. Judge each one for what he or she is and not as a race.
If Obama continues with his current strategy for dealing with this issue, he may well win the Democratic nomination. Obama is so far ahead in the pledged delegates, that it will be very hard for Senator Clinton to catch up. However, his current strategy is not winning over the Clinton supports and swing voters, and he cannot win the general election without them. If Obama does not resolve these issues now, he will continue to hear them from now into November. Obama and Clinton have very similar views on the issues. Clinton has more experience than Obama does. The only reason one should vote for Obama over Clinton is if his character and judgment are better than hers. Character matters. So, why is Obama objecting to the scrutiny of his character? If he can’t stand the scrutiny now, how can he possibly stand up to the general election? Obama supporters can call the last debate the worst debate of all, but doing so won’t win Obama any new supporters. Obama will not win over the Clinton supporters and swing voters by being dismissive of their concerns. He will not win new supporters by brushing off the issue. He cannot win new supporters by being too proud to even discuss the issue. He cannot just say, “Oh, this is just politics as usual.” He cannot dismiss these concerns by saying, “These are just negative personal attacks.” He can not put an end to this subject by, “This is just a distraction from the real issues.” When Obama mocks those that ask these questions, he alienates them. Only one thing can stop these questions. Obama must speak from his heart to the American people. He must say that he recognizes that our concerns are legitimate: people should be careful not to elect a racist to the White House. If Senator Clinton had said and done things that indicated she might harbor hatred of blacks, wouldn’t Obama and his supporters that was a legitimate issue in the race? Obama must say yes I have some unhappy personal memories related to race. He must say yes I am angry about the injustices my people have received. And, then he must tell us why these past injustices make him determined to fight injustice wherever it is found. He must tell us why we can trust that deep down in his heart he does not harbor bitterness, mistrust, and hatred of whites. Obama, when you are ready to talk about this subject, I am ready to listen.
Posted by: RobinVZB | Apr 18, 2008 2:07:40 PM
It's ironic - if Obama is perceived as fighting back he's accused by Clinton and her campaign people of going against his stated policy of waging a different, more civil kind of campaign. And, if he is perceived as not fighting back he's called a wimp. I wish the Clintons would pack up and go away. They are irritating me to no end.
Posted by: counting crows | Apr 18, 2008 2:08:13 PM
Everybody wants to try something new and improved, even if it turns out to be bad like Bushie. Never mind the true and trusted.
Posted by: democraticprocess; now a republican | Apr 18, 2008 2:08:20 PM
People should understand that being happy does not mean everything is perfect. It means you have decided to see beyond the imperfections.
The majority are happy with Obama and this does not mean he is perfect, but they have decided to see beyond his imperfections.
Posted by: Peace | Apr 18, 2008 2:17:37 PM
Clinton and Obama have very similar views on the issues. Clinton has more experience. If Obama wants to convince us he is the better candidate, he must do it on character and judgment. So why does he object to the scrutiny?
Imagine for a minute that Hillary Clinton has been attend a church that teaches an anti-black, anti-American message for the last twenty years. Imagine she has been making negative comments about typical blacks. Don't you think Obama and his supporters would think this was a legitimate issue in the campaign? We must all take responsibility for keeping racists out of the White House. So, why is there this double standard for Obama? Has our society defined racism in such a way that only white people can be guilty of it? Does our collective guilt over the sins against blacks prevent us from honestly looking at the racial atitudes of a black candidate? Do the sins of the past excuse any racist behavior on the part of blacks? I wish Obama would quite dodging this issue. He needs to say why we should believe that past discrimination has made him all the more determined to fight racism. He must say why these past evils have not made him bitter and hateful against whites. How can we trust his message of unity for the races when these inconsistencies keep cropping up?
Posted by: RobinVZB | Apr 18, 2008 2:18:08 PM
I see your point but the issues' differences and plans still should be first.
Take the debate the other evening...would you not have liked to hear more about this Umbrella" that Sen Clinton suddenly through out onto the floor? Or had more time to hear about social security..."working itself out" as one of the canidates threw in as the question was being switched...
or a detailed explanation of the numbers and their understanding of the bureaucracy behind billing and it's association within the medical field and a large bureaucratic healthcare plan like medicare ...and how they plan to get those specific ideas through a divided congress during a time of economic recession... or their feelings on the approaching swing in rising care costs in Massachusetts where a similar plan has already been implemented.
... the differences aren't necessarily as small as you think...and maybe that was the mistake and/or misjudgment in questioning the other evening.
Ethics and character issues are important but considering one side doesn't realizes by making those okay to be the focus of this election...it gives the republicans the right to focus on those instead of our crumbling economy, people not being able to feed their families...rising starvation across the world and it's probablye effects on terrorism levels, our stanidng in the world, roe vs. wade being turned over, healthcare, job losses, our standing in the world...REAL security... education rates in America sinking, leading the battle into fuel cell and other renewable enrgy sources to not miss out on what may be a huge industry...and the fact that we have learned over the past 15 years that divisiveness does not make us a better country and doesn't make our government more productive.
Posted by: dl | Apr 18, 2008 2:18:59 PM
This article sounds like an attempt at rationalizing the criticism of the handling of the recent debate. If so, it misses the point. No one is saying that personal issues are not relevant. The issue is that focusing on such issues for the first 45, or 52, or whatever number of minutes at the outset of a major debate demeans voters, candidates, and therefore the debate moderators. ABC did a lousy job and no amount of rationalization will help that. An apology might be a good start however.
Bob Pine
Posted by: Robert Pine | Apr 18, 2008 2:33:00 PM
The long post about Obama is something that I can relate to.
I am US citizen married to a German national. Right after we married, we went there to live and it never occurred to me that living there would put me into a second class existence - I am of German/Swiss heritage, don't look any different and married one of their citizens. Our children are dual nationals (by the way that is pretty standard procedure for international marriages).
Germany simply has a deep seated fear and prejudice against anyone who wasn't born on their soil. Period.
Everywhere I went, there were hurdles - yes, I learned the language well so our children would be successful in school, yet people still carped about little mistakes that real Germans make all the time. Our children learned German first and then became bilingual - everyone assumed they would fail in school. I always respected the laws and customs, yet was constantly met with moving goal posts and any hint that my slight accent made me a "foreigner" put up barriers some small, some large.(And no one ever said outright I must be American - usually it was guessed that I was Dutch or Danish). Sure, there were no really large outward signs of discrimination, just that subliminal "extra" mile that I needed to apply when wishing to just enjoy life as the neighbors did.
And just like Robin, the Germans we knew said they were "tolerant", but acted as if someone constantly exposed to this prejudice should absolutely and under no circumstances be angry or bitter.
After 20 years of this, we simply sold our house, got my husband a new job and moved back to the Midwest.
My point is, after seeing the agonizing rain of negatives from various groups (because Obama is bi-racial and doesn't truly fit either "demographic") it is really too much to expect that there is no residual discomfort. The wish to wipe all the negatives off the table comes from one's own personal guilt feelings - if only that xxx... person didn't sometimes have negative thoughts about me and my "demographic".
Posted by: Sara | Apr 18, 2008 2:36:34 PM
You guys blew it! With a prime time slot, and no competition except American Idol and reruns, you chose to ask about inane gaffes & non-issues -- and already-answered questions -- instead of the substantive issues facing America's voters: education, Iraq, health care, the economy, gas & grocery prices. Shame on you.
Posted by: Peggy | Apr 18, 2008 2:45:02 PM
RobinVZB,
Your comments are articulated very well. After reading and writing in these for quite some time, it's refreshing to see intelligence here. I guess I must ask how the Catholic faith can preach against abortion and these women stay in church? It's the same only different.
I personally don't think Senator Obama is perfect. But I do know that I am bitter about the way my Government treats me. I am willing to give him a chance. As for the people not of my small town, I fear them only in the context of the famed carpet bagger. They have a miracle snake oil potion that will make me happy. I don't think I'm a racist for those feelings.
Posted by: DAVID NH | Apr 18, 2008 2:50:00 PM
As my teacher used to say, if you get something wrong and keep repeating the same steps you'll never improve.
Most of us agree, Washington is broken and has been broken for decades.
Time to trying someone new. Maybe they have ideas on how to fix things. We know the people who have been running Washington are very good at breaking things.
Posted by: Debbie | Apr 18, 2008 2:50:41 PM
Having closely watched all the presidential debates, I was in complete disbelief watching the Philadelphia Democratic debate. George and Charlie outdid Fox news in their tabloid approach in questioning the candidates, articularly Senator Obama. At the least, George should have recused himself as a former Clinton staffer, and Charlie should see if Fox news will have him.
Posted by: Frances McCrea | Apr 18, 2008 2:52:14 PM
Obama has used low tactic's against people.
He has Campaigned in churches, non - profit organizations - against IRS non -profit regulations
He has reached out to the black non voter. Got them to register, for the promise of the promised land. To give them a better Quality of life. Not just civil rights, beyond that, for a vote.
The ABC Debate was the first real time
Most voters were able to see his character in the real light. It was not pretty.
Clinton's voters are the tried and true Democratic party voters. The people who care about their country and the party.
The backbone of this party.
Obama is getting the newly register one time only voters He made promises too.
Or sold them hope for a vote. Shame they are gullible to buy hope, it is free.
If they would see obama's Senate district in Illinois they would see the false hope they are buying into.
He wants to get back to grassroots politics. He should try some honesty for once in his life. Some Honor and some Patriotism.
It is all a game to him, he is the type of play who bends all the rules, wants everyone to play by his rules takes advantage of all the others uses and abuses them. Shame the game is America and the other players are the citizens.
If he wins the game Americans Lose. The democrat party loses!
Posted by: sharon | Apr 18, 2008 2:54:13 PM
Good effort to defend George Stephanopoliss.... BUT GEORGE HIMSELF ARGUED AGAINST YOUR POINT....JUST SEE HIS VIDEO CLIPS ARGUING AGINST IT WHILE DEFENDING BILL CLINTON IN 1992......pure double standard....crap is crap no matter how you flip it.
Posted by: moeen | Apr 18, 2008 2:55:24 PM
Please... ABC is trying to do some "Damage Control" .... you guys have let many people down.. George and Charlie can spin all they want... They both got an 'F'... the fundamental difference not is the population.. MORE educated on the issues and care less about the BULLSHIT... WE HAVE MAJOR ISSUES facing us now... the biased media and the DUMB pundits are so out of touch they cannot understand this... majority of us cannot afford GAS!! MORGAGE PAYMENTS!!
Posted by: John | Apr 18, 2008 3:07:05 PM
Anyone seen the video of Stephanopolous when he worked for Clinton?
Here's a quote from George himself...
"What he's going to do in this campaign is focus on what's important to the American people, on the jobs and the education. That's what the American people care about. They want to move into the future. They don't want to be diverted by side issues, and they're not going to let the Republican attack machine divert them."
This video is a real big problem for Hillary.
Posted by: Dan | Apr 18, 2008 3:29:43 PM
IT'S DIFFICULT FOR ME TO FATHOM THE FACT THAT THERE ARE AMERICANS WHO ARE SO...INCREDIBLY...STUPID(!) THAT THEY ACTUALLY THINK A FLAG PIN IS RELEVANT! MR. OBAMA IS RUNNING FOR **PRESIDENT**, HOW MUCH MORE PATRIOTIC CAN ONE GET?
WAKE ME UP WHEN ABC WANTS TO HOLD A DEBATE THAT DISCUSSES THE 8K JOBS THAT WERE ELIMINATED TODAY, GAS PRICES, HOMELESSNESS, INCREASING CRIME RATES, THE METH CRISIS THAT IS CAUSING 4 MONTH OLD BABIES TO BE BURNED ALIVE FROM METH LAB EXPLOSIONS, THE MORTGAGE MELTDOWN, AND THE COMPANIES (LIKE MINE) THAT ARE SHIPPING JOBS TO INDIA/MEXICO/ANYWHERE-BUT-KEEPING-THEM-HERE.
OH, HEY, ABC...I just heard Paris Hilton bought a bathing suit for her dog. Let's ask Obama his thoughts about that! Fascinating! No really! FASCINATING!!
Posted by: Jacqueline | Apr 18, 2008 7:53:59 PM
Anyone notice that the only people who thought the debate was fair are Republicans, Conservative Writers and Hillary supporters.
No wonder Hillary and her Staff are appearing on FoxNews everyday. Obama bashing is fun when discussed with friends ! I guess she'll be on ABC too, from now on.
Posted by: Bret C | Apr 19, 2008 3:01:08 AM
You want to vote for a plagiarizing crook, go ahead! The media backs him and helps to rig the election by their biased reporting; the Rezko trial is far from over and Obama is mentioned more and more...His fund raising is extremely questionable. He mixes with crooks and bigots constantly, he even married one!
HE IS NOT FIT TO BE PRESIDENT!
He's a liar and a cheat and a vote for him is a vote for the Silver Senator, McCain...at least McCain doesn't try to hide the fact that he isn't competant!
Posted by: Di | Apr 19, 2008 8:47:38 AM
I am not sure if it is fair comparison between Clinton and Obama polls when John Edwards and others were in the race. The ABC/Wash poll was not all bad for Hillary Clinton.
--On the question of how Democrats think Superdelegates should vote:
46% said based on the Popular Votes, and only 13% based on the pledged delegates won.
--On the question of unfavorable rating
Both Clinton and Obama increased their unfavorable ratings.
Barack Obama unfavorable rating almost double since 2006 (from 23 to 39%).
So, the more we learn about Barack Obama, the more his unfavorable rating goes up.
--On the question of having the level of experience to be President:
51% said the lack of experience will hurt Obama in Nov
67%of responders think Hillary Clinton has better experience to be President compared with only 24% who think Obama has better experience to be President.
--On question 28: How concern are the voters about Obama pastor comments used by the Republicans in November.
47% responders are concerned about Obama Pastor comments
--National polls Like ABC/Wash.,are not reflecting individual primary like Pennsylvania.
Obama-Clinton National polls show similar preference than before March 4th primaries poll when Hillary Clinton won TX, OHIO and RI.
Among the polls released within a week before March 4th primaries:
USA Today/Gallup showed Obama +12
CBS News/ NY Times showed Obama +16
Pew Research showed Obama +9
ABC/Washington showed Obama +7
Posted by: Angel | Apr 19, 2008 3:40:31 PM
I find it interesting that Sen. Clinton was not asked why she didn't wear a lapel flag pin. Why is that? She has a lapel...
Posted by: Cindy | Apr 19, 2008 11:48:29 PM
The Democrats have a big problem: Put up Obama (since he has more delegates even if many were won before the Rev Wright and other stuff hit the fan) against McCain and risk losing in November OR Put up Clinton who is the strongest, most seasoned and strongly popular in swing states and can beat McCain in November. If the superdelegates were to do their job properly Clinton would get the nomination. If Clinton doesn't get the nomination her supporters will make sure the Party pays. The way she's been kicked around, insulted and denigrated is a sure way to alienate her supporters. I say it's too late for Obama to make nice. It won't work with her supporters and it won't work in foreign policy. He is naive and arrogant, the words have left the mouth and the foot has been inserted.
Posted by: mpwdc | May 23, 2008 12:02:33 AM
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