The Numbers

A Run at the Latest Data from ABC's Poobah of Polling, Gary Langer

Gary Langer is director of polling at ABC News, where he's covered the beat of public opinion for more than 15 years – conducting and analyzing ABC News polls, evaluating data from other sources and setting the news division's standards for poll reporting. He's the first and only pollster to win a News Emmy, for his second national survey of public opinion in Iraq.

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« Issues and Attributes | Main | The Role of Race, Revisited »

PA Primary: What to Watch

April 21, 2008 2:38 PM

Groups to watch – and perhaps not watch - in the Pennsylvania Democratic primary:

EDUCATION - It’s hard see a single factor more compelling than socioeconomic status, particularly as defined by education. It’s split the Democratic electorate nearly all year, and as with her past victories, it’s what Hillary Clinton will be counting on tomorrow.

Across primaries to date Obama’s won college graduates by 52-43 percent, while Clinton’s won less-educated voters by a very similar 52-42. The picture sharpens among whites only (there’s no difference by education among blacks): White college graduates have split 47-47 percent, while those with no college degree have gone 2-1 for Clinton, 60-31 percent.

The proportion of college-to-non-college voters isn’t always critical – Obama cruised among both groups in Wisconsin – but it’s mattered more often than not. Last month, in economically stressed Ohio, less-educated voters were in great supply (just 38 percent of white voters were college graduates, compared with an average of 52 percent across all primaries to date) and that helped Clinton immeasurably: She won less-educated whites by 71-27 percent, while her edge among white college graduates was just 52-45 percent.

TIME OF DECISION and NEGATIVITY – Late deciders have been turning to Clinton recently, but only recently. She’s done better among late deciders than among other voters in 11 contests, including the eight most recent. Going farther back, though, she’s done the same among late deciders in 10 contests, and worse in 10.

The long campaign period, heavy advertising and sharp final arguments in Pennsylvania make late deciders especially worth a look tomorrow. Ditto for views of the tone of the campaign; in primaries to date, 52 percent of Democratic voters have seen Clinton as having attacked Obama unfairly; fewer, 38 percent, have said Obama’s unfairly attacked Clinton. Again the perception – and its relationship to vote preference – may matter.

AGE, SEX and RACE –The divisions by age, sex and race have been impressive all year. Obama’s won voters under 30 by 57-38 percent; Clinton’s won seniors by 58-33 percent. Obama’s won men by 50-42 percent; Clinton, women by 51-43 percent. And Obama’s won blacks by 81-16 percent while Clinton’s won whites by 54-39 percent, and Hispanics by 62-34 percent.

Though we only have previous data for Pennsylvania from 1992 and before, African-Americans have had relatively low turnout in its Democratic primaries, peaking at 17 percent in 1988 and 1984. As with all voters’ age and sex, blacks’ share of the electorate may matter much.

RURAL – Clinton’s had a 51-39 percent advantage over Obama among all rural voters to date, the biggest difference between the two when measured by locale; Obama’s had a scant 49-45 percent edge among small-town voters. Rural voters have accounted for 11 percent of all Democratic primary voters; small-town residents, 6 percent. They may constitute a larger share in Pennsylvania, and they’re of interest given the debate over Obama’s comment about small-town voters focusing on religion and guns. (Gun ownership also will be measured in the Pennsylvania exit poll.)

PARTY ID –  Pennsylvania’s primary rules – closed to all but registered Democrats – may work in Clinton’s favor; to date she’s won self-described Democrats by a scant 50-46 percent, while independents have favored Obama by 53-39 percent. Self-identified Republicans, 5 percent of Democratic voters to date, likewise have gone 51-39 percent for Obama. Registration in the state’s at a record high; the exit poll will tell us who turns out in terms of party allegiance.

RELIGION – There’s been some talk in the campaign about Clinton’s support among Catholics, and it’s true that she’s done better among Catholics than among all Protestants – but that’s only because far and away most African-Americans are Protestant. Among whites only the vote to date has been very similar – 59-36 percent for Clinton among white Catholics, 56-37 percent among white Protestants. If Clinton does especially well among white Catholics in Pennsylvania that’ll be worth examining, especially to see if it perhaps masks a socioeconomic effect.

UNION – Union members, or voters from union households, accounted for 34 percent of the turnout in Ohio; it’s been higher only in Michigan, New York and Illinois. But that was down from its level in 2004 (44 percent from union households), and it didn’t much matter:  Among whites, Clinton’s support was similar from union members (69 percent), union household members (66 percent) and people from non-union households (62 percent) alike. Whether union membership matters is an open question again in Pennsylvania.

ISSUES and QUALITIES – The economy’s been the No. 1 concern, but without a strong tilt in vote; voters who picked it have divided about closely, 49-46 percent, between Clinton and Obama. Those more concerned about Iraq have favored Obama, 53-42 percent; health care voters have gone to Clinton by a similar margin.

There’s been much more differentiation by personal attributes. Voters who care most about experience have favored Clinton by 90-6 percent in primaries to date. Those focused on a candidate who “cares about people like me” have been very slightly for Clinton; the few who care most about electability have divided evenly. But far and away the single biggest appeal to Democrats has been the candidate who can best bring about “needed change”; a whopping 51 percent have called it the most important quality, and Obama’s won them by 68-28 percent. Tomorrow will tell how well that theme plays in Pennsylvania.

April 21, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (101)

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Vote using your brain. She has all the solutions for us.

Democratic superdelegates wake up, do not divide the party.

Posted by: Rick | Apr 21, 2008 2:43:49 PM

Good, because Obama mocked them. Shame on you Obama.

Posted by: Alfredo | Apr 21, 2008 3:05:42 PM

What a dubious distinction for Hillary. How does it feel to know the more educated the voter, the more likely that they vote for Obama. Ouch!

Posted by: dano | Apr 21, 2008 3:08:52 PM

The propensity of Obama supporters pointing out the demographics of Clinton voters could bite them where it hurts if Obama were to become the nominee.

But that's not likely to happen because we keep learning more and more about voting blocs that he's alienated.

Go Hillary!!!!!

Posted by: s. valenti | Apr 21, 2008 3:17:09 PM

I think we must all be concerned with who will win in November. I doubt that Clinton with her negativity can win against McCain...and we all know we don't want McCain in there...and another questions is will Hillary have enough money to sustain her campaign. Insiders say she is broke...

Posted by: cindyct | Apr 21, 2008 3:17:16 PM

Several Obama sites have urged their supporters to tell exit pollsters that they have college degrees to bulk up their "smart" voter numbers.

While pollsters can see age, sex and race, they don't verify diploma status.

14 million Clinton voters - don't lump the masses into classes.

Posted by: karen | Apr 21, 2008 3:25:59 PM

Axelrod, one of Chicago's most powerful political strategists runs Obama's campaign. Axelrod specialized in electing black candidates who could cross over and win white votes, emphasizing themes of unity and change.

He also worked for Mayor Daley.Daley is a United States politician, member of the national and local Democratic Party and current mayor of Chicago, Illinois. He was elected mayor in 1989 and reelected in 1991, 1995, 1999, 2003, and 2007. His 2007 re-election set him on the path to becoming the longest serving Mayor in the city's history (a record currently held by his father, Richard J. Daley), should he remain in office beyond December 25, 2010.

This guy Daley is corrupt like from top to bottom but still wins election, becoz he gets all the black votes and some cross over white votes.

Daley is what is called the dynasty rulling the corrupt Chicago city. Reminds me of Fidel Castro.

Anybody except OBAMA

Posted by: Rick | Apr 21, 2008 3:40:38 PM

That sounds about right!
Who else would fall for her
Bosnia sniper story or the
Irish peace process story, or the
I was opposed to NAFTA story!
I'm waiting for the I opposed the
Pardons my Husband gave to members
of the weather underground story!

Posted by: reaganfan | Apr 21, 2008 3:42:36 PM

John it helps >>>>>>

Posted by: h | Apr 21, 2008 3:54:05 PM

I wasn't going to vote for her, but I find the title and substance of this article insulting to those that do. I read conflicting stats here as well. On the one hand you say educated people went 52 to 43 for Obama. Then you go on to say educated whites are evenly split and there is no difference among blacks - educated or not - and why even mention race as it has nothing to do with the stats you are citing. So, what you are really saying is that educated people are evenly split and the non college graduates - that includes most of hollywood and half the press - are going more for Clinton. I doubt seriously whether a person's educational level is playing as big a role in how they vote. This article just wants to make Clinton voters appear less educated and thus - less informed. I'm not voting for Hillary, but I don't agree with this type of journalism.

Posted by: Mark | Apr 21, 2008 3:59:40 PM

Clinton on jobs: 1) NAFTA was written under Bush Sr. but Clinton rammed it through congress and Hillary helped promote it. 2) Bush Sr. refused to grant Most Favored Nation trade status to China because of human rights. But Clinton said that human rights were getting in the way of our commercial interests and granted MVN trade status. Clinton gave China entry into the World Trade Org. The result was hundreds of thousands jobs lost in the U.S. and Mexico, 3 times worse than NAFTA. 3) Clinton shifted regulation of technology exports from the State Department to the Commerce department, allowing companies to transfer technology used in nuclear warfare and missiles to China. 4) Hillary supports I.T. and Engineering outsourcing to India, and referred to herself as the Senator from Punjab. She co-founded the Senate India Caucus, and fought to increase the limits on foreign guest workers from 65,000 to 195,000 per year. One organization of IT Professionals presented her with a “WEASEL” award which it presents to politicians who ‘betray the trust of the American people’ because she assured business leaders in that outsourcing would continue and the US WOULD NOT ATTEMPT TO SAVE THE AMERICAN JOBS LOST. 5) John Miano, founder of the Programmers Guild, says it all for us. He was critical of Hillary Clinton and pointed out that it was “just two-faced." "We see [Hillary Clinton] undermining U.S. workers and helping the offshoring business, and then she comes back to the U.S. and says, 'I'm concerned about your pain.' 6) Now she has been caught with her Chief advisor working to pass the Colombia Trade agreement while she publicly opposes it. 7) Glover Park Group, former home to Clinton spokesman Howard Wolfson, signed a $40,000 per month contract with the government of Colombia in April of 2007 to promote the Colombia agreement and 6 employees of Glover contributed a total of nearly $20,000 to Clinton’s campaign in 2007.

Posted by: Doug | Apr 21, 2008 4:06:12 PM

Well I guess if she lies to us and we still vote for her, and she out sources our jobs to offshore companies and then tells us she wants to help us, and she wants to start another war or two with her mideast nuclear umbrella scheme and we still vote for her, then I guess it helps to be uneducated. Or maybe it is some other quality that we must have lacking.

Posted by: John | Apr 21, 2008 4:18:02 PM

To Dano,
Want to know why Hillary favors the uneducated ? Well, isn't it obvious?
Those are the folks she can easily run a snow job on.Her strong suit is spinning yarns right off the top of her head, and certain groups that she seeks out, fall for her spin. Go figure.

Posted by: Wannaknow08 | Apr 21, 2008 4:22:21 PM

So, people without a college education aren't as easily fooled? Hmmm, must be the street smarts.

Posted by: Sandra | Apr 21, 2008 4:34:05 PM

So, people without a college education aren't as easily fooled? Hmmm, must be the street smarts.

Posted by: Sandra | Apr 21, 2008 4:34:07 PM

Obama clings to guns and religion...


Go Hillary!!!

Posted by: eagle | Apr 21, 2008 4:39:13 PM

To all the women voters:
I am left with nothing but disappointment with the way Hillary Clinton is running this campaign. I can't believe, as a woman, that she did not reject her own husband when he brought shame and disgrace to her and her daughter , yet expected Senator Obama to reject his pastor. I was leaning toward her for President but when I see how she deceives the American people with her embellishments and untruths, I have to take a second look at her. I see now that Senator Obama seems to be held in higher esteem and appears to be more up front with
the people.

Posted by: Wannaknow08 | Apr 21, 2008 4:42:16 PM

While all these "distinctions" are an interesting read, has anyone here - pollster or blogger stopped to think how many of these categories he/she belongs to???
I am white
female
over 65
college education
small business owner
non-active Christian
resident of small city (40,000)
married
parent
grandparent
married to foreign national/bilingual/kids dual nationals
and could probably find other ways to distinguish myself.
Now, where am I in the above article? Where are the rest of you? The slice and dice of the pollsters has truly added to the "pollarization" of this election rather than diminish it.

Posted by: Sara | Apr 21, 2008 4:44:01 PM

What is it that the Affluent Whites want from Obama, more tax breaks, more Oil money to line their pockets??
Poor and less educated want a good life for their kids; healthcare, education, a safe and clean environment. GO HILLARY . Clinton IS the PRESIDENT for ALL PEOPLE!!!

Posted by: DANENM | Apr 21, 2008 4:48:20 PM

Well, while those so-called educated voters with college degrees are expressing their wisdom and level of education by supporting a presidential candidate based on "HOPE for Change," I feel very fortunate that there are still voters in PA and small towns who are wise enough to know that a leader of this country cannot be elected based on "Hope for Change" and "Charisma."

These voters may not have the so-called diplomas to brag about, but they certainly know what they need and what they want.

Happy Voting tomorrow!

Posted by: Crystal Coy | Apr 21, 2008 4:53:37 PM

I dislike Obama intensely because when it suits him he swings from a scoundrel to a saint so effortlessly. This whole race issue is a perfect illustration of it.

The race row really started when Bill Clinton called Obama's Iraq stand a "fairy tale". Apparently this phrase "fairy tale" is racist in any context. Where was Obama's high flown pedantry when Bill was being cruelly turned into a racist over this?

Hillary tried to say that activists (such as MLK) require Presidents/legislators (LBJ) to convert policies into law. According to Obama this statement is tinged with racism. Where was Obama's contextualizing and preaching for forbearance then?

Another one of his spiritual advisors from Harvard writes an op-ed saying the 3am ad is racist! For the first time in my life I saw even Obama supporters uncomfortably shrugging off that claim. Did we hear anything from Obama? Any post-racial calls?

Geraldine Ferraro at worst was crudely trying to say that Obama wouldn't have come this far in the race without 80-90% of the African-American vote. Perhaps an imprudent statement but it was made in a paid speech in an insignificant forum and would hardly have been noticed if Obama's camp had not pushed it. She was merely one of Hillary's hilariously big finance team. Where was Obama's mature outlook towards race then? What was especially galling was Obama, in his dysfunctional union speech, trying to equate Wright's hateful, anti-American speech with Ferraro's remarks! Whoa! This guy is positively reptilian. I mean, chameleons have more consistency than this multi-faceted slickster. To compare the hate speech of a mentor/spiritual advisor of 20 years with mildly insensitive remarks of a woman tangentially connected to Hillary's campaign is really something. And he wanted Ferraro to resign straight-away. He came with hatchets at her. Look at the cold-blooded nature of people like David Axelrod who sought and got Ferraro's support several times in the past for minority candidates and is known to be her friend. No benefit of doubt for a friend. No respect for a former democratic vice-presidential nominee.

That Obama's candidacy has been sustained by "we know what is good for you" attitude of mainstream press. That such intellectuals should be so naive is what is galls me. Did they really think a person who ginned up a real estate deal with a top-notch crook to add a 10 square foot of land to a $1.5 million dollar home is of any remarkable probity? How ding-dong in the head do you have to be to expect that such a person wouldn't be upto all sorts of other crookery?

And, of course, so it has been the last few weeks. All kinds of crookery. He relentlessly beats up Hillary for being supportive of NAFTA while his top economic aide comforts Canada - ah, don't worry, it's all campaign rhetoric. Approaching Iowa, he viciously beats up Hillary for not having a firm Iraq withdrawal date, for suggesting that such a date is hard to predict not knowing what she would inherit as president. Meanwhile, his top foreign-policy aide tells another ally that Obama wouldn't be relying on some withdrawal plan he has for the campaign trail!

I mean, in terms of crookery, Nixon, Rezko, Norman Hsu have nothing on this guy.

What is truly remarkable is the incapacity of those stupid "latte liberals" to get down from their Ivory Tower of wine and pastries and take some responsibility here. It is time, poets and star-gazers, to put aside sentimentalizing, and give us a hand as we throw this guy overboard. There is a policy on this ship, folks. No rats allowed. Put Hillary down, she's not the one and give us a hand over here.

Posted by: Har | Apr 21, 2008 4:55:26 PM

Cynics always moving that imaginary bar to satisfy the incessant cynicism that never stops. Answer this, tell me that, what about this, oh, what about your bowling score. You can't possibly be CINC with a bowling score like that!!!!

Cynics are funny aren't they??
First he had no chance of winning, now he won't go to the White House.

Memo to brain. One doesnt' come this far with the support and backing via grassroots mobilization from the American people without being victorious. It's not just Obama, it's the American people.

Mad at us too?? Get over it.
OBAMA POTUS

Posted by: Nat Turner | Apr 21, 2008 4:57:02 PM

All words of truth.

Hurts huh, UM?

Posted by: Nat Turner | Apr 21, 2008 5:00:42 PM

Hey, do you see how massively negative Obama has gotten over the last week. He has thrown about $3 million worth of slime - ads/robocalls/fliers at Hillary. What a scumbag he is, folks. New Obama campaign slogan:

BITTERNESS YOU CAN BELIEVE IN!

Posted by: Umbria | Apr 21, 2008 5:01:11 PM

Still can't get over Obama's unguarded reflection on Middle American economic anxiety: "It's not surprising that they get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren't like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations."

First, religion is a cultural value not a disease of the poor. Second, It is not usual for people who belong to small-time America to suffer from bigotry. Third, if anti-trade sentiment is, for those who are suffering, only a "way to explain their frustrations" then why has Obama been going around saying what a bad thing NAFTA is.

Never has a politician packed so much astounding stupidity in a single statement.

I know quite a few people who were previously charmed by Obama but now find him reprehensible. As one of my friends said, If Obama had the courage of his convictions he should have just said that to our face rather than to money bags in a private San Francisco dinner.

Posted by: aamittal | Apr 21, 2008 5:05:39 PM

I guess all the blacks that are supporting OB are college educated. If that is so, why all this cry about disparity amongst the races in America. I guess black America is even more educated than whites in; big news to me.

Posted by: PAT | Apr 21, 2008 5:12:03 PM

Wannaknow... The reason why Hillary and Bill have remained married is because they took the VOW....til death do us part AND because LOve and Foregiveness are stronger than Fear, hatred and DIVORCE!! Love is the greatest gift of All.....................GO HILLARY!

Posted by: DaneNM | Apr 21, 2008 5:12:17 PM

I am sooooooooooooo sick of Obama.

Posted by: Carl | Apr 21, 2008 5:12:42 PM

No amount of whining or sniping is going to prevent Obama from being POTUS.

He's smiling and staying above the fray while going straight to the White House.

That explains the cynics coming out in droves. They know too, but they only thing they can do is whine.

WHINE ON! YEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEAAAAH!

Posted by: Common Sense | Apr 21, 2008 5:13:05 PM

Clinton supporters are cheering thinking one battle will make a difference when they've already lost the war. How funny is that?

Who cares if she wins PA? She's primed to lose it to be honest with you.

People in PA are definitely tired of Clinton negatives and lies. Most are opting to just sitting it out.

That's not good and she knows it.

Posted by: Common Sense | Apr 21, 2008 5:20:19 PM

Since when have highly educated voters prevailed in presidential contests? As for the claim that Clinton's voters are not educated, I wonder why it is that all the people I know who voted for her have at least a college degree and a number of them hold postgraduate degrees. Be careful in assuming we're all uneducated. It is isn't so.

Posted by: Two-cats | Apr 21, 2008 5:32:47 PM

Considering who most of the people voting for Obama are I seriously doudt that their the most educated. and beside's that some people would be insulted to think the uneducated people vote for Hillary.. where do they do their polling on this anyway? If It's those phone call's,or some of it anyway people can lie on the phone. or do they ask people what kind of an education they have going in and out of the voting precient's. If it's the collage kid's that they are referring to as being the educated voter's for Obama then they are like him, they have a lot more growing up to do and taking responsibilitie's as an adult.

Posted by: Jeanette | Apr 21, 2008 5:37:41 PM

Senator Barack Obama stood before Washington's elite at the spring dinner of the storied Gridiron Club. In self parody, he ticked off his accomplishments, little more than a year after arriving in town.

"I've been very blessed," Obama told the crowd assembled in March 2006. "Keynote speaker at the Democratic convention. The cover of Newsweek. My book made the best-seller list. I just won a Grammy for reading it on tape.

"Really, what else is there to do?" he said, his smile now broad. "Well, I guess I could pass a law or something."

Obama? I will never vote for him. Liar, never says "sorry" (Clinton does), cocky, arrogant, nose so high in the air he'd drown if it began to rain.

Posted by: Phoenix Comment | Apr 21, 2008 5:38:59 PM

This makes sense, educated people are too smart for the Clinton's bull. The uninformed or under-educated people is what Clinton has always count on. I shouldn't talk. I only have a 12th grade education myself but Hillary insults my intelligence.

Posted by: Crys | Apr 21, 2008 5:41:24 PM

Boy oh Boy, Oh Boy!
Now, you mean to tell me that all you have to do is be able to take a shot and a beer,and go hunting, you can become President? Oh Hillary, voter of the Irac war and Nafta, maker of closed door deals, spinner of wild stories,give it a rest.

Posted by: Wannaknow08 | Apr 21, 2008 5:46:50 PM

To 'Common Sense' I don't know where you are from, but it can't be PA. The people I know are very anxious to show Obama just how BITTER we really are. All his millions spent on his negative campaigning and blatent lies in PA are going to be for nothing, Come tomorrow night that slime-bag is going to be more than aware of just what bitterness is.

Posted by: Barb | Apr 21, 2008 5:50:00 PM

What a crock this article is? I can't imagine how anyone could come to some of these conclusion, especially the one about the black voters. Since their is a huge number of black people who lack a college education, a large number who lack a high school education based on this analogy a win by Obama would be based on a large amount of uneducated black people. Truthfully, the largest number of Hiliary Clinton Af-Am supporters, even though the percentage is smaller are more educated than the large number of AF-AM Americans who are voting for Obama. I guess that would be considered the exact opposite of the rationale for the educational background for Hiliary. Actually, these polls mean nothing. One of the reasons that Obama is always ahead in the polls because who has time to answer twelve to 32 question depending on which poll you are taken. Every time I click on a poll, I hurry up and click out of it because it entails a waste of valuable time.
Statistic are as follows: - 51 year old, Af-AM, college degree, AF veteran, mother of three, grandmother to 8, health care professional, born in rural Louisiana, currently living in Houston, Texas and voted for Hiliary.

Posted by: winning0853 | Apr 21, 2008 6:03:46 PM

If college was all it was cracked up to be, these "educated" Obama supporters would realize his position on healthcare is partial, on Iraq simplistic, and on the economy poverty-inducing protectionist. His recommendation to double capital gains tax rates would wreak havoc on the housing market, inflate the cost of consumer goods and drive more jobs overseas; it would do as much harm to the US economy as the Bush years and seriously damage the middle class.

For those who question Hillary Clinton's integrity, her record speaks for itself. No matter how her opponent has tried to paint her support for trade deals and corporate influence, you can easily look to her two terms in the Senate. Bosnia is only an issue for people who already hated her for personal reasons. I would rather vote for a typical politician who takes their job seriously than another politician whose whole life is a lie.

Posted by: Genevieve P. | Apr 21, 2008 6:19:05 PM

Let's see, Obama loses in a face to face debate to Hillary Clinton on Wednesday, and then on Thursday behind her back he gives her the finger in a speech in North Carolina, and all those "more educated" voters scream and laugh like kids in high school. The amount of education a person has is not an indication of his sense of decency, his integrity, his maturity level, or the amount of common sense he has. Mr. Obama fails the test on all the above, but he is well-educated.

Posted by: Grammy Barb | Apr 21, 2008 6:28:17 PM

Karen....I campaign for Obama and no one has told anyone to say they have degrees if they don't. I really don't see what this has to do with anything. I am so proud of Obama, I live in Indiana and we went out to register voters and he told us to register who ever wanted to register no matter who they support. What a man of great INTERGITY! OBAMA 08*****************

Posted by: Emilianna | Apr 21, 2008 7:14:36 PM

I think it's funny when they talk about all the newly registered Democrats because I know a lot of people who are just that.... and they are Republicans who switched parties for this primary just to vote against Hillary!

Posted by: ellsbells930 | Apr 21, 2008 7:32:52 PM

Can anyone vote for OBAMA who runs away from debates?

He is the loser in the last debate?

He quit going to debates.

He is skittish and has no stomach for hardworking. He prefers writing books and going to Virgin Island. He wants to inspire those are young and innocent to the point of ignorant.

He is afraid of having his ties to Weatherman asked again. He is afraid of real questions.

He is afraid of reality!!!!!!He is grey.

He wants to go back to his dream house and enjoy winning his dream election with dream votes.

What a irresponsible snob denying the voting rights of two states, and people's right to hear more about the dark side, and the real side of him.

Posted by: John_Lai | Apr 21, 2008 7:46:48 PM

Less educated ppl support Hillary. Gee you'd never know that from reading the posts here - now would you???

Posted by: nathan | Apr 21, 2008 8:10:28 PM

I'm amazed at all of the Obama supporters who smugly tout their superior intellect.

I sure as hell haven't seen it. Of course, I don't judge a person's intelligence by how many degrees he/she holds.

I'm a teacher with two masters degrees, and you know what that has added up to: jack ####. The vast majority of knowledge that I have gained has come from life experience and independent reading and inquiry.

Some of the smartest people I have ever met have been working people. Some of the stupidest have been members of the "educated" class.

Posted by: stickety | Apr 21, 2008 8:14:58 PM

PENNSYLVANIA: OHIO-LIKE? Final

Great analysis!!. However, I will be watching a single number from the PA exit polls.

First, what Barack Obama's bowling score and the PA primary have in common?

Six (6) of the latest polls show Barack Obama getting less than 40% among White Voters in PA:

PPP(D): Obama +3 / Obama with 38% of white votes
Quinnipiac: Clinton +7/ Obama with 38% of White votes
Maxon-Dixon: Clinton +5/ Obama with 33% of White Votes
ARG: Clinton +13 / Obama with 32% of White Votes
SurveyUSA: Clinton +6/ Obama with 36% of White Votes
InsiderAdv.: Clinton +10/ Obama with 32.6% of White Votes

Among Democrats, the Obama poll numbers in PA are not as bad as those in Ohio where exit polls showed Obama getting a surprisingly 27% among White Democratic voters.

The OHIO exit polls showed Obama with 34% among all White Voters which matched the predictions by Quinnipiac and PPP(D) Polls. Hillary Clinton won the OHIO primary by 10.1 points.

The Superdelegates watching electability, Barack Obama will have to score among white voters in PA, better than his bowling score of 37.

Posted by: Angel | Apr 21, 2008 8:40:18 PM

I am a Minnesotan, an independent voter who supported and voted Ron Paul in the primary and I am adamant on a returning our troops home from Iraq. I have never in my life voted for a Democratic presidential candidate.

Now that Congressman Paul is apparently out of the race, it looks like my choice will be between McCain on one hand and either Clinton or Obama on the other.

If Obama is the Democratic nominee, I will vote for him. He treats the public as intelligent adults and I have listened to his speeches (especially the New York address on financial policy) where I have found his positions to be rational and surprisingly moderate.

Despite McCain's detestable position on Iraq, I would easily vote for him over Senator Clinton for one simple reason:

I CRINGE AT THE THOUGHT OF YOUNG AMERICANS GRADUATING FROM COLLEGE IN 2012 HAVING KNOWN NO PRESIDENT OTHER THAN A "BUSH" OR A "CLINTON."

Posted by: Luke Anderson | Apr 21, 2008 9:09:06 PM

What a dubious distinction for Hillary. How does it feel to know the more educated the voter, the more likely that they vote for Obama. Ouch!

Posted by: Tina | Apr 21, 2008 9:32:16 PM

Hillary, Hillary, Hillary. Come on now.

When you were leading the race 6 months ago, you were not BITTER or so spicy in your attacks. Now that Obama is leading you are sucking on sour grapes. Even if you win tomorrow, do you really win? If it is a tight race, I think you lose. Backdown and allow the party to come together and defeat the Conservatives in Nov. Negative Campaign adds? So old school, sour-apple polic-like!

OBAMA for President of the USA!!!!!

Posted by: Derek Adams | Apr 21, 2008 10:01:28 PM

You can study voting as a function of issues like the economy, war etc but none of that affects how people vote in this primary. The candidates have similar policy on that.

Obama has won because he matches the mood of the country and the time so perfectly and McCain & Clinton are completely out of sync with what is happening. People vote by their gut.

Posted by: Fey | Apr 21, 2008 10:06:13 PM

Dano: The youth that is voting for Obama are college kids some educated and some on drugs to get educated. When they say he has the educated young voters that's what their talking about and believe a lot of the college kids have to drop out because they cannot pass all the exams. Therefore that leaves them what? You guessed it. Nothing. And college did nothing for Obama. His speech writer had to use the speeches of RFK and add some words to help Obama on the platform. That's the educated Obama that is running for president.

Posted by: Mariann Pepitone | Apr 21, 2008 10:10:01 PM

I have a Master's degree and I support Senator Clinton. College if full of left wing nut job professors who rope these kids into their left wing philosophy. A lot of these elitist professor types like to look down on people and decide what's good for them because after all they think they know what's best. I'd rather have a president who stands up for me than a president who looks down on me. Obama is just out of touch.

Hillary 08

Posted by: Carol 17 | Apr 21, 2008 10:10:58 PM

Obama claims that he doesn't need to win white blue collar voters because he is motivating so many new, young people to join the Democratic Party that he is, essentially, changing the electoral map.

Obama's argument does have merit, in that his appeal to white, post graduate degreed intellectuals and college students cuts across some Red state boundaries and party lines. Thus Obama brings us hope of a new Democratic electorate this Fall -- that divided along new racial and socioeconomic class lines instead of that divided along old racial and socioeconomic and class lines.

Why trade the old electorate for a new? The new demographic can contribute much, much more money, and they have Internet connections! Obama's electorate is the Ebay of electorates and the Amazon.com of American Democracy! And we can replace the Congressional Record with the Congressional Blogosphere! If we are going to divide along socioeconomic class lines, let's unload the white, blue collar workers onto the Republicans because the hyperlingual educated classes are a better class of voter (donor).

Think of it as an upgrade to Democrats 4.0, Professional Version. But, what should worry the Democratic Party, however, is how long would those newly converted Democrats (mostly independents and Republicans) remain loyal to the Democratic Party and the impact on the real democrats of the Party. The Democratic Party must be wondering whether this purported “unifier” is really a “DIVIDER.”

Posted by: Definitely Common Sense | Apr 21, 2008 10:27:14 PM

A thought about this purported educated pro-Obama supporters. You have people with undergraduate and post-graduate degrees who do not have a clue of those things that you only learn in the University of Life. You have those that only know what they have learned while attending the University of Life. You have those who have both types of education. My grandmother was out of school after finishing her middle school. Many of those arrogantly shouting that you have an undergraduate and post-graduate degree or a formal education can only wish to have her wisdom. So it is kind of dumb to believe that because you have a "formal" education you know it all. And this applies specially to the young super-educated Obama supporters with this "we are better-than-you attitude that do not have a clue about the real life issues. Hillary supporters belong to the group of those who have attended the University of Life and/or those who have attended both. Obama supporters belong to the first group.

Posted by: Definitely Common Sense | Apr 21, 2008 10:43:19 PM

What this article doesn't really address, is that Obama supporters fall primarily into two groups, either leftist, pro-socialism types, or young, easily swayed college students and recent grads.

The really telling story was when several reporters asked Obama supporters to name ONE thing that obama has done in the senate, and none of them could.

Susan Sarandon is a perfect example of the Obama supporter. When asked what he stands for, she said "I can't wait to see".

All this stuff about hope and ending politics as usual is recycled Deval Patrick material, and he didn't end politics as usual. It's sad that these same words are working yet again, spouted from the mouth of yet another hollow politician.

Posted by: Southerner | Apr 21, 2008 10:50:18 PM

Obama Supporter: Point proven.

Posted by: Definitely Common Sense | Apr 21, 2008 10:54:57 PM

Obama Supporter: Since you know it all, maybe you can answer the following question. Since Obama is bi-racial as we all know, why he choose to adopt and follow as his only heritage his black heritage? (And we are not going to mention the church he has been attending.) Two of my cousins are bi-racial and both embrace both heritages the black and the white and are very happy to recognize and reconcile in their lifes the good and bad of both. You know that is what we call lead by example. Isn't this the best example of how Obama talks the talking but fails to walk the walking? Or simply put, failes to lead by example?

Posted by: Definitely Common Sense | Apr 21, 2008 11:07:00 PM

The failure of Obama to win PA is really big. The reason why the delegates are holding who they are going to support is because they are not sure if he can win the HISTORICALLY DEMOCRATIC NEED-TO-WIN-IN-ORDER-TO-WIN THE NOVEMBER ELECTION STATES. Since North Carolina has a big black population, a big win there for Obama is irrelevant for the delegates, since if Obama is not the candidate, the black voters will vote for Hillary. However, they know that the majority of Hillary's supporters do not believe that Obama has the minimum requirements to be the candidate. And we need to remember that most of the states where Obama has won have been historically Republican states or he has won by caucuses. General elections are won by voters not caucuses, big difference.

Posted by: Definitely Common Sense | Apr 21, 2008 11:16:29 PM

Two-cats,

They assum us for uneducated because from the polls all Obama supporters are mostly college students.
It doesn't mean people with less education don't use their brains but those young voters most of them don't care about health care, economy problem because they are too yong to think about it.

Posted by: crisis08 | Apr 21, 2008 11:20:29 PM

Marianne Pepitone: Given the facts that were given at the time, most of the democrats who now do not support the war voted for the war. Obama was not there so his opinion has no merit. And as always, when asked how he would have voted he responded he would have abstained. You have the right to change your opinion based on the facts at the time.

Posted by: Definitely Common Sense | Apr 21, 2008 11:20:36 PM

Obama Supporter: I really would like to see a debate between McCain and Obama. And believe me, I don't think Obama is a match for McCain. McCain has been in politics longer, knows more and Obama only knows what he reads in books. If Hillary don't get the nomination I will be voting for McCain. I don't like Obama and never will. There is a big difference between Obama and Jesse Jackson. When it comes to intelligence Obama couldn't shine Jesse Jackson's shoes. And if Rice became the VP he would win in a landslide and Obama would be back in his senate seat where he belongs anyway.

Posted by: Mariann Pepitone | Apr 21, 2008 11:21:35 PM

Obama Supporter: No, my lack of support for Obama is based on his failure to prove to me (with past proven actions and not beautiful words) that he has the requirements to fill the position, not on his race, gender, etc. He has failed to show me that he can do it and from the little I know of him (his real achievements relevant to the position) do not convince me or I disagree with his judgment. Hillary is not perfect, but she has been trashed by the Republicans for years with all the "_____GATES" imaginable all resulting in A BIG NOTHINGATE.

Posted by: Definitely Common Sense | Apr 21, 2008 11:37:13 PM

DANENM:
Most poor and uneducated people
strive to be Affluent!
Hillary Clinton and her billion dollar
programs will make us all equal,
equally Poor!

Posted by: reaganfan | Apr 21, 2008 11:38:34 PM

Obama and his supporters are elitist. Just because you have a degree doesn't make you smart, presumably just well off. Obama is a mixture of Kerry, Dukakis, Gore and Mondale. Can you imagine having to listen to his stutter for the next 4 years, why do Dems have to choose the most ridiculous charactature?!

Posted by: Nathan | Apr 21, 2008 11:39:00 PM

Marianne Pepinone: I agree with you 1000%. I am a Hillary suporter.

Posted by: Definitely Common Sense | Apr 21, 2008 11:40:02 PM

Obama Supporter: Remember that Congress is under the Democratic Party. So it is not going to be that easy for a republican to do as he wishes regarding the war or to appoint any new judges to the Supreme Court. That, of course, assuming that Congress remains with a Democratic majority and that Pelosi starts doing something since according to the polls people deems the work of Congress really low under her Presidency.

Posted by: Definitely Common Sense | Apr 21, 2008 11:44:55 PM

Emilianna said: Karen....I campaign for Obama and no one has told anyone to say they have degrees if they don't. I really don't see what this has to do with anything. I am so proud of Obama, I live in Indiana and we went out to register voters and he told us to register who ever wanted to register no matter who they support. What a man of great INTERGITY!

When I saw this post, I couldn't believe what I was reading. Someone who shoots a bird at his opponent during a speech has "integrity?" Wow.

Posted by: WT | Apr 21, 2008 11:44:57 PM

Mariann Pepitone:
You can trash Obama and his supporters
all you want,Hillary is finished,done!
She cannot win the nomination without
having the super delegates steal it
from Obama no matter what happens
tomorrow night!

Posted by: reaganfan | Apr 21, 2008 11:46:32 PM

Rick: I agree with you. Anyone except Obama. If this country is going to be back to where it should be he is not the one for president. There is only two candidate's that can put this country back on pack and that is either Hillary or McCain. Obama wouldn't know what to do on day one. But he could call some of his choice friends to help him out. Where was Obama's common sense when he was choosing friends and churches. If college did that bad to him imagine if he was president of this country.

Posted by: Mariann Pepitone | Apr 21, 2008 11:48:55 PM

The debate in North Carolina is officially off now - Hillary committed to it weeks ago, but Obama just couldn't commit, so now it's off. What a wuss!! My 9-year old granddaughter has more guts in her little finger than this guy has in his entire body. He's still saying his little speech in Chicago against the war is the reason he would be the guy to pick up that 3 am call. Please! We need a person of courage in the White House - not a wuss that won't even debate the lady face to face again.

Posted by: Grammy Barb | Apr 21, 2008 11:53:49 PM

Obama Supporter: Do your homework. I do not have space in here to illustrate you about Hillary's achievements on her own. It is easy. I did mine regarding Obama.

Posted by: Definitely Common Sense | Apr 21, 2008 11:56:04 PM

Obama Supporter: But did you miss Obama drinking beer after Hillary? As always he always follows what she does first. Again, do your homework.

Posted by: Definitely Common Sense | Apr 21, 2008 11:58:33 PM

Obama supporter: Do you know anything about security clearances? I do, and the vetting by the FBI is extensive. With more and more friends and acquaintances of Barrack Obama's coming out of the woodwork, wouldn't it be funny if the FBI said sorry, we can't give you a top secret security clearance? If an ordinary citizen had the likes of Rezko and Auchi, Bill Ayers, and Reverend Wright in their past, he would not get past day one of the FBI's vetting process. Now that's scary to me.

Posted by: Grammy Barb | Apr 22, 2008 12:03:35 AM

Obama Supporter: Again, her platform is flawed, but Obama's is flawless? Believe me, her platform is Republican attack solid. Remember, that the republicans have already tried for years to demean her, and they have ended with nothing.

Posted by: Definitely Common Sense | Apr 22, 2008 12:04:33 AM

Granny Barb: He cancelled the debate because he lost the last debate and he doean't want to make a fool out of himself again. Hillary took him for a ride that time. What would he do against McCain. He couldn't even answere the questions fast enough he had to think of what to say. He was a joke that night. Most of this generation of fools are voting for him because there is a lot of jealousy against the Clinton's. Many of the commentors are people that never accomplished anything in their life and it hurts them when someone else did what they couldn't do and made millions of dollars. But Obama will not win the nomination unless some idiot superdelegate gives him the vote. So far, he is losing in PA which a crucial state for him to win according to his campaign manager. And if she wins there and Puerto Rico plus maybe KY she is in like Flynn. He will win NC and IN I am sure but who cares as longs as she can win three states.

Posted by: Mariann Pepitone | Apr 22, 2008 12:10:46 AM

If he is not racist, why he only donates to Black community?
We don't want a president only support AA.

Posted by: crisis08 | Apr 22, 2008