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A Puerto Rico Lookahead

If Hillary Clinton does well in Puerto Rico on Sunday, it shouldn’t be a surprise: She’s been strong among Hispanic Democrats all year, a group that lifted her to victory notably in the California and Texas primaries; and likewise among...

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May 30, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (20)

What the Heck Happened

The approaching end of the primary season prompts a terrific question: What the heck happened? You’ll hear answers from a lot of sources. But a beautiful thing about the internet is that you can also dig out some of your...

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May 30, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (26)

Gay Marriage: The California Questions

In the wake of this month's state Supreme Court ruling, do most Californians support gay marriage? It depends - and therein lies a cautionary tale in understanding poll results. A pair of polls in the state have had somewhat different...

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May 28, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (56)

Vote Count III

A fundraising note from the Clinton campaign today declares her intention to win the "national primary vote." With all the votes in Oregon counted, that's a good enough excuse for us to update our total vote estimate in the Democratic...

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May 28, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (13)

Democratic Voter Groups: A Second Look

Voter-group analysis in the Democratic contest has been flying thick and fast lately. Among the arguments: Barack Obama has a problem with white voters. And/or with Jewish voters. And/or with supporters of Hillary Clinton. Each can use a second look....

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May 27, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (143)

McCain: Health and Age

The release today of John McCain’s health records raises again the question of whether his age can hurt him in the 2008 campaign. The best answer: You bet. This doesn’t mean it will hurt. Voter preferences are most likely to...

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May 23, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (10)

Updating the Vote Count

(Check the bottom of this item for a 5 p.m. update.) I blogged last week on the intricacies of counting the vote in the Democratic nominating contest, and proposed a better estimate – a count in which Barack Obama led,...

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May 21, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (70)

Counting the Vote

In an interview with Charlie Gibson this week, Hillary Clinton contended that she's ahead in the popular vote – a critical claim in her last-ditch attempt to win over super delegates. The problem: It's arguably not so. "Arguably" because there...

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May 16, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (29)

Obama and Working-Class Whites

The anticipated outcome of today’s contest in West Virginia is prompting a fresh review of Barack Obama’s difficulties winning support from working-class white voters in this year’s Democratic primaries. One question: The extent to which it does or doesn’t predict...

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May 13, 2008 in Favorite Posts | Permalink | User Comments (126)

Follow the Lines

This morning our Political Unit broke news when Barack Obama for the first time inched into the lead in its tally of Democratic super delegates. That inspired the attached charts – showing Obama and Hillary Clinton’s accumulation of pledged delegates,...

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May 9, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (20)