The Numbers
A Run at the Latest Data from ABC's Poobah of Polling, Gary Langer
Gary Langer is director of polling at ABC News, where he's covered the beat of public opinion for nearly 20 years - conducting and analyzing ABC News polls, evaluating data from other sources and setting the news division's standards for poll reporting. Langer is a two-time Emmy award winner, both for ABC's reporting of public opinion polls in Iraq.
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A Puerto Rico Lookahead
May 30, 2008 4:53 PM
If Hillary Clinton does well in Puerto Rico on Sunday, it shouldn’t be a surprise: She’s been strong among Hispanic Democrats all year, a group that lifted her to victory notably in the California and Texas primaries; and likewise among Catholics. Put the two together – Hispanic Catholic voters – and you’ve got a powerful Clinton advantage.
There’s plenty of overlap between the two groups. In exit polls conducted in this year’s Democratic primaries to date, 63 percent of Hispanics have identified themselves as Catholics, far higher than the proportion of Catholics in other groups. Nearly all Puerto Ricans are Hispanics, and 85 percent are reported to be Catholics. The population also is lower-income and lower-education than the mainland’s, another two good groups for Clinton.
Among all Hispanics voting in Democratic primaries to date, Clinton’s beaten Barack Obama by 61-35 percent, compared with her 55-38 percent margin among whites (and his 82-15 percent among African-Americans). Among Catholics, Clinton’s also beaten Obama by 61-35 percent. And among Catholic Hispanics, by 69-29 percent, a 40-point margin.
Non-Catholic Hispanics are another matter; Clinton’s won them as well, but by a much narrower 51-46 percent. And there are differences by combined racial and ethnic self-identification. Among voters identifying themselves as black Hispanics (5 percent of all Hispanic voters), Obama’s beat Clinton by 69-30 percent. Among white Hispanics (12 percent of all Hispanics), Clinton’s held a 13-point advantage, 54-41 percent. And among those who’ve identified themselves as Hispanics racially and ethnically alike, Clinton’s lead has been largest – a 2-1 margin, 66-33 percent.
When Clinton won Texas and California, she did so with support from 66 and 67 percent of Hispanic voters, respectively. She won 68 percent of Hispanics in New Jersey and 73 percent in her home state, New York. Obama split Hispanics with Clinton in his home state, Illinois, while winning the state overall by more than 30 percentage points.
A new Field Poll in California shows Hispanics there are much more apt to say they’d support Clinton than Obama in a November matchup against John McCain. But they’re essentially no more likely to support McCain if Obama’s the candidate; rather, to be undecided or currently to favor someone else. If Hispanics in California aren’t thronging to Obama, neither are they ruling him out for November. The question in Puerto Rico, though, is whether they prefer him against Clinton. So far, relatively few have.
May 30, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (20)
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Whatever happens it is projected that the turm out will; be low.
Don't you think it is time we stop parsing these elections?
I am really starting to hate this dividing the vote thing pitting one group against another. It does nothing for the ideals this country was founded on.
Posted by: Thinking | May 30, 2008 5:08:05 PM
GO HILLARY! We KNOW she can do this! Puerto Rico she needs your support BIG TIME! Thank you in advance for your votes! She will receive the FL and MI delegates FULLY tomorrow. The DNC knows better. Again, THANK YOU PR!
Posted by: jeep395 | May 30, 2008 5:08:57 PM
If you really want to see Hillary supporters run from Obama nominate a woman for VP. Do you think we are voting for Hillary just because she's a woman? or we are so gender biased that any woman is ok?
Posted by: maryintampa | May 30, 2008 5:19:07 PM
It amazes me that ever since Iowa, every time Hilary wins a primary the conventional "wisdom" has been "so what?" For somebody who supposedly has captured the nation, why is it that Obama hasn't won everything? Hilary was supposed to be the polarizing candidate but it appears that even if Obama wins the monination he can hardly say he has a mandate. In fact, He appears to be the polarizing candidate. Ironic isn't it?
Posted by: druggstohr | May 30, 2008 5:32:10 PM
yea hillary has run a clean campaign, and has been hardly divisive at all
in fact all those polls in most every primary where they asked who was the candidate that attacked the other one unfairly...
obama won hands down every single time
oh wait
and they say us obama people need to stop drinking the koolaid
Posted by: bhrandon | May 30, 2008 5:35:00 PM
Did the MSM not jump on Hillary to quit after BHO got 91% of the African-American vote? Was that not expected? Why once again are we pouring cold water on a victory that will signal the strength of her base which is also a winnable coalition in the fall? Another MSM bias.
Posted by: Mark | May 30, 2008 5:36:09 PM
"If Hillary Clinton does well in Puerto Rico on Sunday, it shouldn’t be a surprise"
But it will still be enjoyable and widen her popular vote lead. Roll on mighty river!
Posted by: len | May 30, 2008 5:36:25 PM
Barack Obama has problems of electability among Hispanic voters. Hillary Clinton does not.
The Hispanic-Battleground States without NY and IL control a total of 160 Electoral Votes.
The % of votes received by George W. Bush (286 EV Total) among Hispanic voters in those states:
NM(5 EV): 44% of Hispanics winning 50% to 49%
AZ(10 EV): 43% of Hispanics winning 56% to 44%
NV(5 EV): 39% of Hispanics winning 51% to 48%
FL(27 EV): 56% of Hispanics winning 52% to 47%
CO (9 EV): 30% of Hispanics winning 52% to 47%
TX (34 EV): 49% of Hispanics winning 61% to 38%
NJ (15 EV): 43% of Hispanics losing 53% to 46%
CA (55 EV): 32% of Hispanics losing 54% to 45%
I wonder what would happen if John McCain picked a Hispanic (a woman?) for Vice-President?
Posted by: Angel | May 30, 2008 5:57:45 PM
Hillary should do good in Puerto Rico after the rant of Rev Pfleger who is a friend of Louis Farrakhan. The people in the church during the rant were pouncing up and down and were lovin it. Obama has been a member for 20 years and this was part of his environment and the environment has an influence on an individual even if they will not admit it.
Posted by: Anders Scooper | May 30, 2008 5:58:27 PM
The whole point is that Clinton has trounced Obama since Wisconsen overall, and Obama has some very serious flaws as a general election candidate.
Does it matter in the slightest?
NOPE. Never did.
Its the 'Obama no matter what' show.....
I have switched to the republican party.
Posted by: cgeast | May 30, 2008 6:17:04 PM
"I have switched to the republican party. "
Does it matter in the slightest?
NOPE. Never did.
Posted by: Thinking | May 30, 2008 6:23:51 PM
Send her home PR send her packing.....
Posted by: h | May 30, 2008 6:27:26 PM
Every single time it's the eve of a big Hillary victory, the media downplays expectations and calls it "expected". They did it in OH, TX, PA, WV, KY, even IN where they declared BO the victor even though he lost.
I am sick of it. The media and liberals have spoken, Obama will be the nominee, and McCain will be the president.
Posted by: A reader in Georgia | May 30, 2008 6:58:20 PM
I can't believe the Democratic Party. the leadership/DNC/Super delegates. Do they know to add 1+1+1+1 to make a 4. How many warning signs can you ignore? Are they blatantly sexist elitist and out of touch? How can our beloved president yes our most beloevd president sit in the pews of a racist and vitriolic church with his wife and 2 children listening to Wright/guets slike the new idiotic Pfleger/support for Farakhan/the terrorist Hamas and the Gadaffi of the 80's, the anti-semetist attitude of this racist church/Michelle's statement of I am proud for the first time and not do the simple math. Aren't we all judged by the company we keep? Don't birds of a feather flock together. These are just not a one time church visits. These are spiritual advisors, friends, uncles, mentors, sermons chosen as titles for books, praying with the pastor before announcing your candidacy. Can't anyone d the simple Math? I am no racist, I would have voted for Collin Powell in a heartbeat, but, noth this man, who is a phony and kept company with undesirables. My family of Reagan Democrats are truly considering rejecting the Democratic party once and for all. How can they take this crap? They do not deserve a place in politics. It is time for an alternative to the Dem party to emerge. I truly felt upset, and I though the unpatriotic remarks passed on Kerry were truly unfortunate. Obama is not a Kerry, but, he is a racist phony, hiding in a sheep's clothing. Down with Obama and the Democratic Party.
Posted by: Warren5678 | May 30, 2008 8:55:32 PM
I am froma family of Reagan Democrats who believe that GWB is the worst ever president in our History. I am sick tired and angry. Why on earth will my family go all out to defeat BO?
Posted by: Warren5678 | May 30, 2008 8:58:29 PM
The implication here is that Obama can only win in a "dirty" election!
Granted, he has never one a clean election before.... but what happened to your faith?
Posted by: think about it! | May 30, 2008 9:32:02 PM
Puerto Rico doesn't vote in November.
Obama 2008 -- Yes, WE CAN!!!
Posted by: jackt51 | May 30, 2008 10:03:19 PM
Hey Thinking,
It sounds like your so-called "presumptive nominee" will take another thumping in Puerto Rico. Plus he'll be taking a thumping in Florida and Michigan when the rules committee meets this weekend. Come next Wednesday Obama will not have what he needs to win this election, mark my words. This will need to go to the convention.
========================================
Hillary in '08 or '12,
The lower the number the higher the IQ of the Democratic Party!
========================================
Posted by: WestCoastMessenger | May 30, 2008 10:14:07 PM
WCM
Not going to happen. The Rules Committee is not going to give Hillary anything near what she needs. The Democratic Party is in no mood for a convention fight, and that will not happen.
Obama08
Posted by: Thinking | May 30, 2008 10:29:02 PM
The Hispanic Battleground states including NY and IL control a total of 212 Electoral Votes and 270 EV are needed to win the US Presidency.
During the 2000 Election Al Gore with 63% of Hispanic voters won 129 EV of the Hispanic Battleground states including NY (33), NJ (15), IL (22), CA (54) and NM (5). George W. Bush won 77 EV including NV(4), TX(32), FL(25), AZ(8), CO(8).
During the 2004 Election John Kerry with 54% of Hispanic voters won 122 EV of the Hispanic Battleground states including NY (31), NJ(15), IL (21), and CA(55). George W. Bush won 90 EV including NV(5), TX(34), FL(27), AZ(10), CO (9) and NM(5).
During the 1996 Election Bill Clinton won all Hispanic Battleground states with the exception of Texas and Colorado.
Most people underestimated how almost 100% of African American voters jumped into the bandwagon of an African American candidate because of its historic symbolism.
Can John McCain give Hispanic voters (without their favorite Democratic candidate, Clinton) a chance to jump into the bandwagon of historic symbolism picking a Hispanic for Vice-President?
Posted by: Angel | May 31, 2008 2:55:56 PM
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