The Numbers

A Run at the Latest Data from ABC's Poobah of Polling, Gary Langer

Gary Langer is director of polling at ABC News, where he's covered the beat of public opinion for nearly 20 years - conducting and analyzing ABC News polls, evaluating data from other sources and setting the news division's standards for poll reporting. Langer has won two Emmy awards for ABC's reporting of public opinion polls in Iraq, and The Numbers blog was honored this year as winner of the 2008 Iowa Gallup Award for Excellent Journalism Using Polls.

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Gay Marriage: The California Questions

May 28, 2008 12:16 PM

In the wake of this month's state Supreme Court ruling, do most Californians support gay marriage?

It depends - and therein lies a cautionary tale in understanding poll results. A pair of polls in the state have had somewhat different results on the question, underscoring the fact that a single number rarely is sufficient to understand public attitudes fully – and that different approaches, compared and contrasted, can better inform our judgment.

Today’s headline, out of the latest Field Poll, is that 51 percent of Californians approve of allowing homosexuals to marry – up 7 points from when Field last asked in 2006, and over half for the first time.

So most Californians (barely) do support gay marriage. Right?

Sort of.

That result is in response to a question asking yea or nay on gay marriage. Field also asks another question, with three options, not a simple dichotomy – whether Californians prefer gay marriage, gay civil unions, or no legal recognition of a gay couple’s relationship. In this formulation support for gay marriage slips to 45 percent, with 32 percent preferring civil unions, 19 percent neither.

Here we have a difference from a Los Angeles Times poll a week ago. In that one, with a very similar question, fewer supported gay marriage, 35 percent (10 points fewer than in the Field Poll); civil unions drew 30 percent support (similar to Field); and neither got 29 percent (10 points more than Field).

There are other differences as well: In the L.A. Times poll just 41 percent approved of the court’s ruling; in the Field Poll it was 48 percent. And in the Times’ poll 51 percent said they’d vote to support a ban on same-sex marriage; in the Field Poll support was lower, 43 percent.

Sample differences can matter (the Times poll was among all adult Californians, the Field Poll among registered voters only, and both noted big differences among areas of the state and demographic groups). Timing can matter, too (the Field Poll was done May 17-26, an unusually long 10-day field period; the Times poll, May 20-21, a short one). So can the order of questions, and these are worth a look.

The Times poll’s first question on the subject was the one that asked about gay marriage vs. civil unions vs. neither; nothing ahead to influence answers. The Field Poll started differently, first asking its dichotomous “approve/disapprove of gay marriages” question. It would want a clean read on this, a long-term trend question. But having told Field that they approve or disapprove of gay marriages (without civil unions as an option) might have influenced some respondents' answers to subsequent questions - the three-parter including civil unions, as well as those on approval of the court’s ruling and views on an amendment banning gay marriage.

That's a guess (it'd take a split-sample test to prove it), and it doesn't mean one approach is intrinsically better. Both polls are high-quality, with clear, balanced questions. Instead they tell us that measurements on the subject can differ; a possible reason is that for some respondents attitudes on gay marriage are not firmly held, and thus more sensitive to options and order.

One thing that's clear from the Field poll is that support for gay marriages (in its dichotomous test) has grown sharply, from 28 percent in 1977 to today's 51 percent. Another is that on this, as on many issues, there’s more to public attitudes than a single number.

May 28, 2008 in Social Issues | Permalink | User Comments (56)

User Comments

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religion is not evidence. it is not proof, and it is not, cannot be the basis for law in this country.

Posted by: Louis | May 28, 2008 4:25:35 PM

"you actually do have the right to tell her how you feel just as she would have the right to leave me should she choose to."

We're not talking about leaving you. She wants to stay with you but get funky with me, too. We're committed adults and, as you have said, that's all that's needed.

" I also see no issue with plural marriage, if three or more people should desire to commit to each other, why should they not be allowed?"

Ahhh, cuz it's Morally wrong. We understand that you people don't get it.

Posted by: Faisal Smith | May 28, 2008 4:25:51 PM

^^religion is not evidence. it is not proof, and it is not, cannot be the basis for law in this country.^^

That's the PR, anyway.

Posted by: Mr. Incredible | May 28, 2008 4:26:34 PM

"How does a same sex marriage damage your marriage? how does it harm yoru family? how is it somehow inherently inferior? "

It harms this society, this culture, this country. I'm a citizen of this society, this culture, this country.


Specifics faisal, specifics! Saying something is harmful is not the same thing as it actually being harmful.

How does a same sex marriage damage your marriage? How does it harm your family? Why is it somehow inherently inferior?

Posted by: Louis | May 28, 2008 4:27:32 PM

Faisal, you seem to confuse Love with sex. they are two separate and distict things. Now, the sexual issue you bring up is known as swinging, and if consenting adults wish to indulge in such an activity, I don't see where I get to tell them they can't.

We don't pass laws for morality. we pass laws for public safety. Show me the public safety issue regarding plural marriage. For that matter, since you brought it up, where is the immorality of plural marriage between consenting, non-related adults?

Posted by: Louis | May 28, 2008 4:31:06 PM

^^It doesn't matter when someone recognizes they they are homosexual.^^

Except to those who claim to be homosexual who say that they were created homosexual. I'ts up to them to prove that they were created homosexual. All I'm asking is "when?"

^^ Did you know at birth that you would be attracted to a particular type of person?^^

We're not discussing "knowing." I asked those who say they are homosexual when they were created homosexual. THEY say they were created homosexual. It's a simple question.

^^I didn't figure out what kind of women I liked until I was in my teens.^^

You're skewing the issue.

^^trying to make homosexuality some kind of birth defect is laughable.^^

It's choice, and THAT's laughable.

^^ I've never bought into the 'gay' gene theory.^^

A choice. Thanks for agreeing.

^^ Sexual attraction is as individual a thing as can be, I'd find it very difficult to believe there was a specific genetic trigger for it. ^^

Except that God joined a man, as husband, and a woman, as his wife.

Posted by: Mr. Incredible | May 28, 2008 4:32:29 PM

Mr. I you don't get to require that I legally subscribe to your religion anymore than I can require you subscribe to mine. Your religion and the role of the state regarding marriage must be two separate issues. The state cannot say these people cannot be married because Mr. I's religion says so. and that is really the only argument there is against allowing same sex marriage, or plural marriage for that matter. This decision is CA. is not a liberal judge, it is one that has understands that there is no public safety component to a ban on same sex marriage. that there is no other relevant or applicable argument beyond the religious.

Posted by: Louis | May 28, 2008 4:38:24 PM

^^We don't pass laws for morality.^^

Legislative members vote for laws that conform to their sense of Moral right and wrong.

^^ we pass laws for public safety.^^

"Marriage" being for a man and a woman being one of them.

^^ Show me the public safety issue regarding plural marriage. For that matter, since you brought it up, where is the immorality of plural marriage between consenting, non-related adults?^^

God joined a man, as husband, and a woman, as his wife.

Posted by: Mr. Incredible | May 28, 2008 4:38:49 PM

^^you don't get to require that I legally subscribe to your religion anymore than I can require you subscribe to mine.^^

Nobody is requiring you to do anything that you want not to do.

^^ Your religion and the role of the state regarding marriage must be two separate issues.^^

There you go requiring me to follow YOUR religion.

^^ The state cannot say these people cannot be married because Mr. I's religion says so.^^

However, those who vote for laws may do so based on their sense of Morality.

Posted by: Mr. Incredible | May 28, 2008 4:41:26 PM

"Specifics faisal, specifics! Saying something is harmful is not the same thing as it actually being harmful."

I WAS specific. You don't accept it. So what?

"How does a same sex marriage damage your marriage? How does it harm your family? Why is it somehow inherently inferior?"

It harms this society, this culture, this country and family.


Posted by: Faisal Smith | May 28, 2008 4:43:11 PM

faisal, there is plenty of love without sex out there and plenty of sex without love, it is sad that you do not believe you can have one without the other. Sex can be an expression of love and there is certainly a component of attraction there, but you can be attracted to and have sex with someone and not love them. You can be in love with someone and not have a sexual attraction.

Posted by: Louis | May 28, 2008 4:43:22 PM

so we are at an impasse. Mr I cannot separate church and state.

Faisal thinks saying something is harmful without actually saying how it is harmful is somehow meaningful.

Mr. I did hit the nail on the head though - the constitution is probably the closest thing I would refer to as my bible. I hope he takes the time to read it some time.

Faisal - homosexuality is not going to be the downfall to the family, this society or this country. Those that are intolerant of others will be. Those that say, you are wrong because I say so and expect that such a statement should be enough for condemnation.

Posted by: Louis | May 28, 2008 4:50:40 PM

"there is plenty of love without sex out there and plenty of sex without love..."

I don't doubt it, and immorality is rampant in the world. We understand that that's the kind of world you want, and you got it.

" Sex can be an expression of love and there is certainly a component of attraction there, but you can be attracted to and have sex with someone and not love them."

German shepherds do that, too. That's what the world has become.

" You can be in love with someone and not have a sexual attraction."

Being friends with somebody of the same sex is not homosexuality.

Homosexuality is something more than friends, and it involves -- as repulsive as it is -- a sexual arousal.

Posted by: Faisal Smith | May 28, 2008 4:50:55 PM

^^Mr I cannot separate church and state.^^

Sure I can.

^^...the constitution is probably the closest thing I would refer to as my bible.^^

You mean the one that mentions God in Covenant Name?

Posted by: Mr. Incredible | May 28, 2008 4:53:27 PM

"homosexuality is not going to be the downfall to the family, this society or this country."

That's the PR, anyway.

" Those that are intolerant of others will be."

When you gonna start to be tolerant of us?

Posted by: Faisal Smith | May 28, 2008 4:54:45 PM

They're chokin' on that, Paula.

Posted by: Mr. Incredible | May 28, 2008 4:57:29 PM

faisal, so the issue is that you find homosexual desire repugnant. and that is the basis of passing laws against them being able to marry. Are you under the impression that you would be required to watch? I remember being told once that becasue I was attracted to women of another race that it was somehow disgusting.

Are you under the impression that there was no premarital sex in the world before christian marriage? You do understand that marriage had nothing to do with emotional commitment or even physical attraction when it was instituted and continued under christianity.

the worlkd has not become. the world has always been. You sound like a good candidate for fundamental muslim faith. Under that dogma you can beat a woman with impunity for being in the company of a man that she is not related or married to. You can stone her to death for sex outside marriage and homosexuality also carries a death penalty. yes Christianity can trace its beginnings all the way back to the beginnings of Islam.

Posted by: Louis | May 28, 2008 4:59:56 PM

They understand that Jefferson said that the Right to life starts when we are created, and that means conception.

That conflicts with the pro-choice=pro-abortion=wrong-choice crowd who say that the Right to life begins at birth. Clearly, though, something was created before that, and Jefferson knew that.

So which is it?

Posted by: Waffie | May 28, 2008 5:00:56 PM

one is created homosexual at the same point one is created hetorsexual, if such a point exists. Since both orientations clearly exist there must be a time in human development either pre or post birth that would determine it.

As far as being tolerant, while I disagree with your points of view, I have not required that you change them, only pointed out that you cannot impose them on others.

Posted by: Louis | May 28, 2008 5:05:17 PM

"you find homosexual desire repugnant."

That would be one word for it, yes. There isn't enough room here for all the other terms.

"... and that is the basis of passing laws against them being able to marry."

They ARE allowed to marry. They have no less "Right" to marry than anoybody else.

" I remember being told once that becasue I was attracted to women of another race that it was somehow disgusting."

So?

"Are you under the impression that there was no premarital sex in the world before christian marriage?"

The world is chock full of immorality, isn't it.

" You do understand that marriage had nothing to do with emotional commitment or even physical attraction when it was instituted and continued under christianity. "

Your point?

"the worlkd has not become. the world has always been."

No, it hasn't. It fell. Willingly.

" You sound like a good candidate for fundamental muslim faith."

Muslims feel that they can perform their way to Heaven. Christians know that they cannot.

" Under that dogma you can beat a woman with impunity for being in the company of a man that she is not related or married to."

Oh, so, now, you make up an argument and argue with that. We understand.

" You can stone her to death for sex outside marriage and homosexuality also carries a death penalty."

That's up to God, as Leviticus says.

"yes Christianity can trace its beginnings all the way back to the beginnings of Islam."

No, it cannot.

Islam traces back to Ishmael. he was not the promised child. Isaac was, and he was the line to Christ.

Posted by: Faisal Smith | May 28, 2008 5:07:50 PM

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