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Gary Langer is director of polling at ABC News, where he's covered the beat of public opinion for more than 15 years – conducting and analyzing ABC News polls, evaluating data from other sources and setting the news division's standards for poll reporting. He's the first and only pollster to win a News Emmy, for his second national survey of public opinion in Iraq.
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McCain: Health and Age
May 23, 2008 11:10 AM
The release today of John McCain’s health records raises again the question of whether his age can hurt him in the 2008 campaign. The best answer: You bet.
This doesn’t mean it will hurt. Voter preferences are most likely to be determined by voters’ partisan affiliation and the candidates’ positions on issues. But – as we’ve seen in the primaries – the candidates’ personal attributes do matter. And McCain’s age, like Barack Obama’s relative inexperience, is an undeniable negative.
An AP report on McCain’s medical records today notes that in our ABC/Post poll in April, 70 percent of Americans said his age made no difference to them. This is true, but more to the point is the fact that 26 percent - one in four - said it made them less enthusiastic about his candidacy, while just 3 percent said it made them more enthusiastic.
Election politics is often a game of margins; when one in four expresses concern, that is well beyond the ignorable. So is the fact that concern about McCain’s age is far greater than the number who say they're less enthusiastic about Barack Obama because of his race or Hillary Clinton because of her sex. Indeed those are both net positives – twice as many people are drawn to those attributes than put off by them.
There is partisanship in views of McCain’s age; just 13 percent of Republicans see it as a concern, compared with 40 percent of Democrats. But it’s 24 percent among independents, the quintessential swing voters in national elections. And it’s 27 percent among seniors, who may be said to have a unique perspective on what 71 is like.
Perhaps the best news for McCain is that the “less enthusiastic” number in our poll ebbed slightly, from 31 percent in January to 26 percent in April.
But it’s still there. Our more recent poll, this month, used a different approach, asking not about McCain in particular, but about a president first taking office at age 72. Thirty-nine percent said they were uncomfortable with the idea, including 15 percent "entirely" uncomfortable. That again was more than twice the level of discomfort with either an African-American or a woman president.
In a Gallup poll in March, relatively few people raised McCain's age in an open-ended question asking their compunctions about him. But that was simply because other concerns were more salient – e.g., his closeness to President Bush and his support for the Iraq war. It doesn’t mean age is a non-issue.
We’ve been here before; as a 73-year-old candidate Ronald Reagan effectively defused questions about his age, and not just by his well-timed zinger in an October 1984 debate against Walter Mondale, then 56. “I will not make age an issue of this campaign,” Reagan said. “I am not going to exploit for political purposes my opponent's youth and inexperience.”
Reagan showed that a candidate can effectively address concerns about his age, not just with a snarky line but best by displaying vigor and acuity on the campaign trail. McCain – who, if elected, would be the oldest person sworn into office as a first-term president – has the opportunity, in the months ahead, to do the same.
May 23, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (10)
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I'm more concerned with how years of drug use and cigarette smoking have affected Obama's brain function.
Posted by: Mack | May 23, 2008 11:58:08 AM
Lol! sounds like American idol syndrome. Honest Abe wasn't a looker.
Posted by: Mack | May 23, 2008 12:15:13 PM
No matter how healthy they will want us to believe Mc Cain is...
He is just old, physically ill, and ill tempered.
Everything is wrong with this old guy. He should be retired like many others at his age and dedicate to something quieter and more relax. That would be the wise thing to do. But he is not wise.
He suffers from a disease called arrogance and the belief that having been a military hero means that he knows it all.
His mental condition is weak: he does not know if he is a republican or a democrat or an independent. He has gone from one side to the other looking for room for his ambitions.
We need someone young and healthy...we deserve this much.
Posted by: tired of spins | May 23, 2008 12:16:51 PM
My concern: McCain's halting speech pattern when reading from the prompter, repeated faltering recall, flip flopping on issues, aggressive uncontrolled anger, not responding accurately nor getting the point to comments, fuzzy judgment, past dizziness, cholesterol medication, low affect, poor judgment on the war, recent vet vote passed by majority of the senate that he missed, seeking the endorsements of extremist as Hagee, Parsley, etc for political gain, surrounding himself and his campaign with lobbyists with questionable foreign connections, continuing to align himself to W.
Posted by: Kay | May 23, 2008 12:25:33 PM
My primary concern is that his mind will not be as sharp as we want and need in a president. The fact is my elderly father was so dangerous on the road that I had to ask him to quit driving. And he gets forgetful often. They say he's likely to be in the early stages of Alzheimers. He's 75...
Posted by: Scotti | May 23, 2008 12:27:41 PM
His Mother is in her 90's and she seems to be pretty sharp. Good genes. Drug use kills brains cells. Maybe that's why Obama believes in his heart that there are 57 states. Next.
Posted by: Mack | May 23, 2008 12:42:59 PM
Nobody at the age of 65 years can try to find any kind of a job anywhere and be offered one.
How come at the age 72 years we can offer McCain the most demanding and brain-eating job in the entire world!!!
Posted by: Peace | May 23, 2008 12:43:49 PM
He's just too damn old. Sorry, but both his father and grandfather died of natural causes by the time they were 71.
McCain has bad genes and is living on borrowed time.
Posted by: Sgt. Ryan | May 24, 2008 2:52:44 AM
Age is an asset and John McCain is a hero. The age descrimination card has been played.
Posted by: Anders Scooper | May 30, 2008 6:34:12 PM
Regardless to what many may think about McCain , there are two things that he cannot escape ,{1} he is a old very worn man and he looks very tired and often does not know the facts and his well dressed wife makes him likk even older even though she puts her hair up like and old woman , he stills looks much older than her .Also , whatever McCain has to say now he does not represent the futher ,but the past . All of tne many many young voters did not turn out in record numbers for the first time to have McCain win in Nov . America is ready for a change and his name is OBAMA. If McCain wins he is against everything that young people want and need and McCain cannot give give them that . To fully understand what is happening here all must watch the special done on the You Tube headed by a young man only 24yrs ols . It is quite something to watch and listen to him about fund raising and getting out the vote. The special was on Nightline last night .Amazing stuff.2. Hillary messed up by trying to rain on Obama's parade . She was made to look evil and vindictive and a very sore looser . She is not to be trusted to work as Obama's cabinet . Maybe he could make her Ambasador to Bosnia and she can take Bill with her and return to the states in 8yrs . she cannot go to the WH with Obam , he would have to put human rat traps all over the place . The is something going on with Bill , Hillary should now take the time to see why he ste out to sabotage her campaign and did .
Posted by: DWB | Jun 5, 2008 12:20:10 PM
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