The Numbers
A Run at the Latest Data from ABC's Poobah of Polling, Gary Langer
Gary Langer is director of polling at ABC News, where he's covered the beat of public opinion for nearly 20 years - conducting and analyzing ABC News polls, evaluating data from other sources and setting the news division's standards for poll reporting. Langer has won two Emmy awards for ABC's reporting of public opinion polls in Iraq, and The Numbers blog was honored this year as winner of the 2008 Iowa Gallup Award for Excellent Journalism Using Polls.
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Obama and Working-Class Whites
May 13, 2008 12:42 PM
The anticipated outcome of today’s contest in West Virginia is prompting a fresh review of Barack Obama’s difficulties winning support from working-class white voters in this year’s Democratic primaries. One question: The extent to which it does or doesn’t predict problems for Obama if he’s the party’s nominee in November.
The effect, which we started reporting back in February, has been clear in the primaries: Whites who don’t have a college degree have voted for Hillary Clinton by a 2-1 margin, 62-31 percent, while those who’ve gone through college have divided evenly, 48-47 percent.
It seems that the effect stems in part from the thematic positioning of the two, with Clinton’s more nuts-and-bolts approach better attuned to the working class, Obama’s inspirational pitch for a new politics resounding better among more upscale Democrats. Obama’s been helped by the fact that better-educated voters are disproportionately likely to turn out – especially in primaries.
But primaries only tell us so much about general elections. In our latest ABC/Post poll, testing each of the Democrats against John McCain, there’s a shortfall among less-educated whites for both: McCain leads Obama by 12 points in this group, Clinton by 8.
Obama, with his upscale appeal, does better among better-educated whites: McCain’s just +3 vs. Obama, compared with McCain’s 12-point advantage against Clinton among college-educated whites. That accounts for Obama’s better showing against McCain overall, 51-44 percent in our poll, vs. 49-46 percent in a Clinton-McCain matchup.
Obama McCain Clinton McCain
Whites, no college 40% 52 44% 52
Whites, college grads 47 50 42 54
There are other potential impacts of race and socioeconomic status. As we noted in our poll analysis yesterday, 17 percent of less-educated whites say they’re at least somewhat uncomfortable with the idea of an African-American president; among better-educated whites that declines to 4 percent. As noted, there’s a similar effect on comfort with a woman president – and McCain’s age is a far bigger negative than either of these. Each of the candidates has room for some consciousness-raising on these concerns.
It’s also worth noting that the latte-vs.-lunch bucket effect has not been entirely consistent in all primaries this year. Obama won less-educated whites in the Vermont and Wisconsin primaries, was +2 in Utah and came within 4 points in his home state of Illinois (although in each he again did better with upscale whites).
It’s fair for the Obama camp to point out that he doesn’t do significantly worse against McCain among working-class whites than Clinton does, and that he does better with their upscale counterparts. And Obama’s numbers are nothing like John Kerry’s and Al Gore’s; they lost working-class whites to George W. Bush by 24 points and 17 points, respectively.
But working-class whites nonetheless are a group with which Obama might well like to improve. If he loses today’s primary, and next week’s in Kentucky, they’ll be the first place to look. And less-educated voters account for a greater share of the turnout in general elections than in primaries. While Obama could win a general election without them – just as he leads McCain today – it’s also true that the last Democrat to capture the White House, Bill Clinton, ran evenly among working-class whites as he did so.
May 13, 2008 in 2008 Primaries, Race | Permalink | User Comments (126)
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This makes no sense: are all blacks upscale blacks...why are they voting 93% Obama??? The fact is we will have another 4 years of Bush, when McCain wins in November!!!
Posted by: C. California | May 13, 2008 12:57:22 PM
Obama is an empty suit, created by the media with the help of the Chicago political machine. He is a weakling whose strings are manipulated by Teddy Kennedy, John Kerry-Heinz and Joe Biden. He is at their beck and call and is unable to make a decision without their help. An empty suit. Obama is further creating a cult which is being incited to hate the Clintons and John McCain. Along with the above three are Howard Dean and Nancy Pelosi who are panting for obama to become nominated - further manipulation.
The Democratic party is split and I for one, will be glad to see it buried and never alive again.
I will vote for McCain if Hillary is not nominated and I will campaign that each of the above, when faced with their own re-election may not win. Obama is an unknown, has no leadership experience and is not qualified to become president. And Yeah - I am a middle-class white person.
Posted by: Lou | May 13, 2008 12:58:54 PM
I think the media is not looking at the ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM. I don't think that Obama has problems so much with white working class voters because he does WELL with this population in the North, West, and not too badly in the Mid-West.
However, when you look at the APALACHIA part of the United States which includes parts of Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Kentucky there IS a problem.
I think the problem is RACISM. Perhaps these white working class voters in this part of the U.S. would NEVER vote for a Black man no matter who he is.
I think it is time for the media to look at WHERE Obama has this problem (Apalachia, the South).
You will see that in Oregon, I predict that Obama will get a big chunk of the white working class vote for example. He doesn't have problems with the West.
Obama will have to choose a VP that will help him with these voters in these parts of the U.S.
Posted by: Stacey | May 13, 2008 1:02:31 PM
They don't want those typical bitter Americans in the New and Improved Progressive Democratic party anyway.
Posted by: Mack | May 13, 2008 1:06:11 PM
Obama is unfit to be president. No matter what class will or will not vote for him.
Posted by: Vickie | May 13, 2008 1:06:23 PM
OH come on. Face it. People of all colors aren't all racist or not racist. The simple fact of the matter is, regardless of who takes the oath of office in January, if your life sucks so much today that Obama or anyone else will make a big difference in it, you will be dissappointed once you realize you still have to live that life the day after the inauguration. Jeez. The only scary thing is that people actually believe anything a politician runnning for office says. "I'm from the government, and I'm here to help." Lalala lol
Posted by: Kitty | May 13, 2008 1:14:10 PM
These are racists comments:
From Dreams of My Father, “ I FOUND A SOLACE IN NURSING A PERVASIVE SENSE OF GRIEVANCE AND ANIMOSITY AGAINST MY MOTHER’S RACE”.
From ‘Dreams of My Father’, “I CEASED TO ADVERTISE MY MOTHER'S RACE AT ABOUT 12 or 13, when I began to suspect that by doing so I was ingratiating myself to whites”
And then this scary one:
From ‘The Audacity Of Hope, “I WILL STAND WITH THE MUSLIMS SHOULD THE POLITICAL WINDS OF WAR SHIFT IN AN UGLY DIRECTION..
Smiling face and stupid non-answers to pointed questions, answers like, "Oh, it's just more of the same old politics." are just a very small sample of why he should not be president. He doesn't give real answers because he has NONE. He is just a smiling face with a pat speech and the rest is hollow.
Posted by: Vickie | May 13, 2008 1:14:25 PM
Wow, Obama has difficulty with getting votes from uneducated white voters in WV and Kentucky?! How is that possible? I guess we just have to wait until things change...Maybe the situation will be different in say...year 2052?
Posted by: bewildered | May 13, 2008 1:15:28 PM
Obama has no problem with people on this class. Its them who have problem. How come that educated folk on that age are voting for him.
This is all about education. The more you are educated, the more you understand! Please stop blaming Obama on this. Its beyond his control.
Posted by: Peace | May 13, 2008 1:15:52 PM
Yes, we know, we know....he has trouble getting white voters.
But do we really wonder why? Or is the real reason right up under our collective noses...
Posted by: LA in Indiana | May 13, 2008 1:18:18 PM
Peace: Your comments are exactly right. It IS about education...followed closely by culture.
Posted by: dano | May 13, 2008 1:18:53 PM
@formerHillary-
You're wrong. It's blacks who turned their backs on the Clintons, not the other way around.
And Obama has a problem with less educated whites, not UNEDUCATED whites.
This language- typical for a snotty Obama supporter.
Posted by: IndependentPlease | May 13, 2008 1:20:41 PM
Well, considering the mess people seem to think we're in, AND considering most of the mess makers are well-educated, MAYBE it's time for the "really smart, educated" people to rethink things. Some people have book smarts. Some have life smarts. If the fear mongers are correct and we need Obama to save us from whatever this horrible thing we're heading into happens, I'll make my way to WV where people actually know how to grow food and sustain themselves.
Posted by: Kitty | May 13, 2008 1:21:55 PM
Vickie...if you're going to quote material, you should quote the text and show references to include PAGE NUMBERS and you should quote material IN context and not OUT of context. Otherwise, you're just as guilty as those who desire to maintain various levels of racism.
Posted by: JustMyObservation | May 13, 2008 1:23:55 PM
So, 90% of blacks voting for the black nominee is not racist? Why is that?
Posted by: MOMO | May 13, 2008 1:25:05 PM
Typical elitist babble. If you don't support Obama then you must be a uneducated racist. So much for the support for the proletariat.
Posted by: Mack | May 13, 2008 1:26:25 PM
Yeah I heard about all those educated people voting for Obama because they thought he was cute or it was the cool thing to do. Well I am a college educated white and I don't care if he is as cute as a newborn baby or as ugly as and old mutt dog. I don't care if he is white, black or purple polka dotted It is all about his Abilities! and he has NONE NONE NONE other then talking and smiling...and those are his positive ones. I will not take the time to restate the many many negatives
Posted by: Vickie | May 13, 2008 1:31:16 PM
Why does Hillary have such a major problem with Black voters? If she were nominated today she would lose to McCain because of this - Blacks will not forget how she has played the race card and continues to play the race card everywhere she goes - White white white - VOTE HILLARY VOTE WHITE - In any case lets all rejoice she is still in the race wasting more of her cash and going into major debt - Good riddance.
Posted by: daisy | May 13, 2008 1:31:17 PM
C. California, 93% isn't bad, huh?!
And we go the full range in education. Apparently we are able to reach back and bring most of our 'less educated' along with the progression.
Its almost like being a soldier...we do our best with leaving no man behind on the information highway.
In our neighborhoods, our families, and even in our church communities, we try to educate those that don't have access to resources to remain fully engaged in the political process. So that may account for the large percentage.
So it seems, that ain't happnin' in good ole Appalachia.
Signed,
Middlescale black
Posted by: LA in Indiana | May 13, 2008 1:34:00 PM
Maybe to working class whites, the idea of a rookie senator thinking he can solve the world's problems comes across as extremely arrogant.
Working class people have real problems that effect their daily lives and they want to hear real solutions and plans, and that's what Senator Clinton delivers.
Posted by: Jackson | May 13, 2008 1:35:11 PM
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