The Numbers

A Run at the Latest Data from ABC's Poobah of Polling, Gary Langer

Gary Langer is director of polling at ABC News, where he's covered the beat of public opinion for nearly 20 years - conducting and analyzing ABC News polls, evaluating data from other sources and setting the news division's standards for poll reporting. Langer has won two Emmy awards for ABC's reporting of public opinion polls in Iraq, and The Numbers blog was honored this year as winner of the 2008 Iowa Gallup Award for Excellent Journalism Using Polls.

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Vote Count III

May 28, 2008 11:52 AM

A fundraising note from the Clinton campaign today declares her intention to win the "national primary vote." With all the votes in Oregon counted, that's a good enough excuse for us to update our total vote estimate in the Democratic primaries and caucuses. Our methodology for these computations is sketched here and detailed here. We’ll update after the remaining contests in Puerto Rico, South Dakota and Montana.

            With         Without      With FL,
          MI and FL     MI and FL    Without MI
Obama    18,191,417    17,615,203    18,191,417
Clinton  18,222,170    17,022,875    17,893,861
         
         Cl +30,753   Ob +592,328   Ob +297,556

May 28, 2008 in 2008 Primaries | Permalink | User Comments (13)

User Comments

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This numbers could not be correct, look at them again.It makes it look like Obama has the same amount with MI and FL or without MI. It does not make sense, are you trying to make Obama the winner.

Posted by: dana gum | May 28, 2008 12:08:53 PM

Why is Bho winning the dem nomination? who knows! some will have a life long analysis. But, deceptions, as Bho demonstrated by his pandering of veterans in selling his "uncle" story, could bring out followers, especially youths.

One can look at one precedent in the 20th century.


Chairman Mao was able to mobilize hundreds of millions youth, the Red Guards during the Cultural Revolution, to remove his political opponents. He called for these youths to serve their country, literally, sending them to the countryside to help the poor, in the name of HOPE, CHANGE, revolution (Bho would not used this term, would he?).

These youths only realized the deception years too late, but I wonder if there is parallel here in the dems nomination. I suppose the only difference is that the propaganda machine - the media - was controlled by Mao, but the media in this monination process volutarily supported Obama by one-sided favoritism.


Talking heads were in teers hearing Mao speech, although talking heads now only felt tingled between their legs hearing Obama speech. Is this a real difference, I wonder?


Revolution we can believe in!

How does that sound!? It was one of Mao's quotes.

Posted by: fact check | May 28, 2008 12:10:17 PM

dana gum,
Those numbers are correct. That's what so lame about Clinton's argument to count the vote "as they were cast". Obama pulled his name off of the ballot in MI, thus not receiving any votes. Do you really think that if he were on the ballot he would have recieved "0" votes? Clinton's camp also rejected MI suggestion of giving 59% to Clinton and 39% to Obama... they want him to get zero, period, otherwise there is no way to claim the most votes. See the problem?

Posted by: JP | May 28, 2008 12:15:51 PM

She still has a case to make...and many know the polls have consistently shown her to do better against McCain. Obama has sort of sailed by since his 11 wins in Feb., dodging debates, where we really see she is the better candidate. She has strength and staying power, and Saturday should be interesting, when they decide what to do with FL and MI.

Posted by: Debra | May 28, 2008 12:16:06 PM

How can anyone in his/her right mind think that Obama got "zero" vote from MI?

Clinton does not want to give Obama any vote from MI and she does not want to count the popular votes from caucuses, and she wants to claim she wants every vote to be counted. This is such a sad joke.

Posted by: JT. | May 28, 2008 12:18:46 PM

How can anyone in his/her right mind think that Obama got "zero" vote from MI?

Clinton does not want to give Obama any vote from MI and she does not want to count the popular votes from caucuses, and she wants to claim she wants every vote to be counted. This is such a sad joke.

Posted by: JT. | May 28, 2008 12:21:09 PM

She was smart to leave her name on the ballot in MI and...Dems wanted to get out and vote in the primary there despite the DNC ruling earlier.
So do a re-vote there. Hillary still wins FL, even if they did a re-vote there, which they don't have to. There are elections coming up in August in MI...do a re-vote before the convention.

Posted by: Debra | May 28, 2008 12:21:20 PM

Please remember that for caucus states, it is not the actual number of people who have voted for a given candidate that's displayed...

Posted by: SQ | May 28, 2008 12:23:06 PM

Since a prior post brought a reference to Chairman Mao I would recall my first day of law school in September of 1971 our Torts professor read a quote from Chairman Mao's Little Red Book about how we must not be guilty of impotent thinking. While that might sound like a lead in to a Viagra commercial today it could certainly be ascribed to the Clinton bogus method of counting only what is convenient and claiming victory when the opposition was not on the ballot as in Michigan and entirely dismissing the vote totals from the caucus states. RCP has a more complete total on votes which should be examined that shows all the various permutations. I would also disagree that all the polls show her doing better against McCain than Obama. He is still ahead of her in the RCP composite and in a number of Western and Midwestern States and carries California by 7 points in the latest LA Times state wide poll while Hillary is ahead only by three in the State with the largest number of electoral votes. The Clinton campaign hides the whole truth when it is inconvenient.

Posted by: bhciapol | May 28, 2008 12:25:49 PM

The Clinton camp is griping they are the ones who said he "doesnt get any votes from MI" then when he starts winning when he doesnt get any votes from MI they get mad, they thought Clintons arguement of the popular vote would win her the nomination and he is taking the lead even without MI. What is her next arguement going to be?

Posted by: Deb | May 28, 2008 12:28:10 PM

JT -

Let's see. How anyone in his right mind whines he got no votes because he VOLUNTARILY took his name off the ballot, thereby forfeiting his right of getting votes before the election?

Bho was pandering Iowans by going one step further to discard MI votes for him, simply trying to gain more support from Iowa to show that he supports keeping that caucus first among all states.

Now, he and his supporters are cry babies.

Bho needs to take some responsibilities - something the Dreams of His Father did not teach him as his father did the same thing, by abandoning his family and taking no responsibility of raising his son.

Posted by: a new name | May 28, 2008 12:28:39 PM

In Michigan almost half the democratic contestants pulled their name out. Therefore it is not fair to assume that the votes that Hillary didn't get might have been for Obama. It could very well have been for the other 3 candidates who pulled their name out.

Posted by: John Keenan | May 28, 2008 11:17:33 PM

The superdelegates should not have any more power than any other voter. one vote for one person. If neither candidate gets enough votes for the nomination, the candidate that wins the popular vote should get the nomination. There should be no superdelegates. This ia a violation of individual rights and is an attempt for the eletist to control who gets the nomination of the party.

Posted by: Anders Scooper | May 30, 2008 6:57:14 PM

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