The Numbers

A Run at the Latest Data from ABC's Poobah of Polling, Gary Langer

Gary Langer is director of polling at ABC News, where he's covered the beat of public opinion for nearly 20 years - conducting and analyzing ABC News polls, evaluating data from other sources and setting the news division's standards for poll reporting. Langer is a two-time Emmy award winner, both for ABC's reporting of public opinion polls in Iraq.

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What the Heck Happened

May 30, 2008 3:38 PM

The approaching end of the primary season prompts a terrific question: What the heck happened?

You’ll hear answers from a lot of sources. But a beautiful thing about the internet is that you can also dig out some of your own conclusions – or fact-check what you’re hearing from others – by going directly to the source. With that in mind we’ve posted full exit poll results from each state contest in which they were conducted. Click here to get there.

We’ve been dissecting these polls in detail all year; they’re an absolutely invaluable source of intelligence on the election outcomes. Our fundamental understanding of the contours of the Democratic and Republican nominating contests alike relies on them.

There’s some apparent misunderstanding of how these polls are done. Interviews are conducted in person at randomly selected polling places in each state; voters leaving the polling place are randomly selected to participate. Interviewers note the sex, race and estimated age of those who decline; these are used in a non-response adjustment. In states where it's estimated that about a quarter of the vote, more or less, will be by absentee ballot, telephone polls supplement the exit polls.

There can be differential non-response in exit polls; for example, in many of this year’s Democratic primaries Barack Obama's supporters have been disproportionately apt to participate. In addition to the sex, race and age adjustment, the exit poll is adjusted for non-response in two other ways: Preliminary results are partially weighted to an estimate derived from pre-election polls, and later results are weighted to the actual vote as it becomes available.

One use of the exit polls is to assist efforts by news organizations to project winners. Another use – the one I find most valuable – is to enable us to make an independent, valid and reliable assessment of who voted, how and why. You've seen our analyses. Have a look at the data.

May 30, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (26)

User Comments

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Fraud and intimidation at caucuses in Republican states is the easy answer to that question Mr. Langer.

Posted by: s.b. | May 30, 2008 4:08:39 PM

What happened?

- the liberal media framed the whole campaign to fit Obama.

- moveon.org endorsed obama so he could blow clinton away in fundraising

-Clinton trusted long time loyal staff who were villiage idiots.

-Clinton ignored the caucus's because she didnt have much chance in that type of forum and thought she would win the big states by enough to make up for it.

- super delegate decided by late february that Obama would be the nominee no matter what, and in spite of the fact Obama has looked pathetic since then, and is not the same candidate he was before Rev wright or bittergate, they INSIST on making him the nominee anyways.

Posted by: cgeast | May 30, 2008 4:31:50 PM

A sense of entitlement.

Running a poor campaign on the wrong issue.

ignoring caucus states.

not planning past Tsunami Tuesday.

sending mixed messages (alternating between rage and motherly serenity)

making divisive statements like working class white people.

letting her husband run of his mouth.

talking about assassination of an opponent.

Claiming that your losing because of Racism, Sexism, Elitism or any other ism you can come up with in a news cycle.
Not caring about the people of Florida and Michigan until you were on the losing end and then pretending to be their champion all along.

Lying under sniper fire.

Trying to torpedo your parties chances in the general election because you want to be able to run again in 2012 (Good luck with that one)

Claiming your from every coal town in every state in the rust belt.

And last but not least the complete inability to do math and accept that you've lost the nomination by the rules set up by the guy running your campaign.

Posted by: QuestinoEvil | May 30, 2008 4:35:36 PM

5 months from now, we will be asking, 'what went wrong with Obamas general election campaign'

- Obama supporters insisted on blowing off the Clinton supporters by calling Bill and Hillary Clinton every rude and vile name in the book.

Posted by: cgeast | May 30, 2008 4:39:56 PM

cgeast
thats right clinton was completely robbed in this primary...

im sick of talking about hillary im sick of her double talk, and her lies, and her divisive strategy that she swears is actually party unity

OBAMA IS THE DEVIL!!!

no no i say that to bring the party together

hillary had every shot, she had eveyrthing going, SHE NEEDS TO ACTUALLY REALIZE THIS WAS HER DOING

cmon, i just how can you guys even believe this stuff anymore

i jumped off the hillary band wagon long ago... her campaign has since gone further down the toilet

obama thanks her for her party unity by campaigning like a republican and using repub tactics, and for painting him like an elitist while her campaign can never go broke becuase she can just throw MILLIONS into it without batting an eye

cmon

i use to love the clintons, now they are just.... horrible filthy dirty liars

I DONT SAY THAT TO HER SUPPORTERS, but i do say that to them

Posted by: bhrandon | May 30, 2008 4:47:49 PM

The Clintons have a bad habit of either winning badly or losing poorly and in this cycle they are doing both. Their combined sense of entitlement is only matched by a campaign that has lost all entitlement to sense and uses a combined contrived game plan of exaggeration,stirring up religious or racial prejudice mixed in with class envy or a double standard of guilt by association. Hopefully the famous last words of Yogi Berra on it being over when it's over will be true.

Posted by: bhciapol | May 30, 2008 4:48:42 PM

Obama dissed not only Hillary but the entire Clinton Administration, lumping the Clinton years in with the Bushes. Maybe the only way he felt he had a chance was to trash those two terms when Dems actually had the presidency, but I find that very unseemly and distasteful and wrong. Obama will be very fortunate if he gets elected, let alone wins 2 terms, and is half as successful as Bill Clinton.

Posted by: hopesprings52 | May 30, 2008 4:50:07 PM

Many of us are voting against Obama because we're voting no to sexist, racist treatment of Hillary and her supporters! We're voting no to scare tactics by Obama supporters! We're voting no to threats and insults from Obama supporters! We're voting no to bullying by Obama supporters! We're voting no to Obama supporter silence when racist, bigoted remarks fly from other Obama supporters. We're voting no to this cycle of abuse from Obama supporters!! We've had enough of abusive Obama supporters and we're saying NO! We're rising up, standing up and voting NO!! NO MEANS NO!!!

Posted by: former dem in chicago | May 30, 2008 4:54:01 PM

She lost

Posted by: Thinking | May 30, 2008 5:10:16 PM

Obama long time friends and supports start speaking up.

It is a good thing, to get to know Mr Obama for what he is.

His close personal friendships he holds near and dear to him, for well over 20 years.

Reflects his personality, what he believes in, and stands for.

He handle it as a true friend of Fahter Pfleger, brushing it off lightly, and moving on.

Shows his character flaws and what he holds near and dear to his heart and soul.

Obama is a National Secrutity Threat, that needs to be addressed.

Posted by: seah | May 30, 2008 5:28:44 PM

The Bible says, "If you sow the wind, you will reap the whirlwind."

Obama supporters have sowed insults against Hillary and her supporters throughout this campaign.

They should now prepare for the political backlash of millions of angry Hillary supporters either staying home or voting for John McCain on Election Day.

Posted by: USmarine0331 | May 30, 2008 5:53:44 PM

What has happened is that media's sexism and bias against Hillary in the beginning has helped to build the Obama Momentum. Once the Rock Star atmosphere is established, the blind mob follow the star without asking any questions about his ability and integrity.
Hillary, the candidate in the shadow, is pushed to the sideline no matter how important and good her message have been

Posted by: insight | May 30, 2008 6:00:38 PM

Manipulation by the Obama campaign and brainwashing by the mass media, that's what happened. Obama's campaign is the one thinking they are entitled to the nomination, not Hillary Clinton. His friend Rev. Pfleger should go back and review all of the most favored candidate coverage of the past 6 months to see that. I am still amazed that someone running for President of the USA has hung out with so many nutty friends and long time acquaintances, and no one seems to think it matters! Sorry, judgment on who you choose to be friends with does matter to me, regardless if he is actually caught saying the same dumb things in public or not. If you don't share their values, you don't hang around with so many of the same types of people for 10 -20 years. I'm tired of Obama's supporters making excuses for him all of the time on this issue.

Posted by: dwc | May 30, 2008 6:01:23 PM

There are many factors to examine when analyzing an election or in this case, the entire Democrat Primary Season. So why is Obama going to win this? I think it can be mainly attributable to the following:

- Obama had a message of hope and change and Clinton had a message of experience. The voters were looking for hope & change.

- Caucus strategy - Obama's team had a very methodical approach to winning as many delegates as possible by going after the caucuses where the Cinton campaign thought they would simply steamroll to the nomination.

- Clinton fatigue. Democrats either love or hate the Clintons...there seems to be very little middle ground and I think a lot of voters did not want to revisit the Clinton years, even including all the good.

- Bush - Clinton - Bush - Clinton - This pattern does seem to both more people than is discussed.

- Clinton's mismanaged campaign - Hillary Clinton did a very poor job of managing her campaign and ultimately, she is to blame for that. Debt, mistakes, etc.

- Bill Clinton - The former President did not act like a former President but instead was the story and am embarrassment to the campaign. His mishandling of events in South Carolina will be seen as one of the turning points of this campaign and delivering the old Confederacy to Obama by securing the Black vote.

Posted by: Ivan | May 30, 2008 6:02:34 PM

I was totally baffled by the negative attitude of the middle class and the less fortunate multitude towards Hillary.
Hillary's program in its whole scope will benefit them the most, yet the crazed shouting of "change we can believe" buried all the facts. Hillary has consisitantly planned Universal healthcare, unlike Obama's shifting positions which he justified with a farcical excuse that he had not know HMOs existed when he first purposed UH.
Frankly, I am a little frightened by Obama who thought he could lied through with such glaring absurdeity.
I am just worried Americans specially the DNC are embarking onto the road to another disaster by choosing the wrong candidate.

Posted by: harvie | May 30, 2008 6:12:41 PM

And the posts put here have sure helped the Clinton supporters vote for Obama.

Yes , I realize that some are republicans posing as obama supporters to blow off the clinton supporters, but most are actual Obama supporters who think treating the Clintons like garbage is going to help Obama's cause somehow.

Its simply so stupid , its comical.

I am switching to the republican party.

Posted by: cgeast | May 30, 2008 6:20:52 PM

FROM THE VERY START, HILLARY WAS UNDER FAR MORE CLOSE SCRUTINY THAN OBAMA. IMAGINE HILLARY HAS REZKO IN HER CLOSET, THE ATTACKS ON HER WOULD BE LEGION. YET ONLY AFTER REPEATED PLODDINGS FROM THE AMERICAN PUBLIC, ABC AND SOME OTHER NETWORKS BEGAN TO LOOK INTO REZKO, THE FRAUD WHO RAISED HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS FOR OBAMA AND "HELPED" THE PURCHASE OF OBAMA MANSION. JUST IMAGINE IT WAS HILLARY, NOT OBAMA IN THIS DUBIOUS POSITION, HILLARY WOULD HAVE BEEN CAHSED OUT BY DNC LONG AGO.
SEXISM IS SO SUBTLE AND IN A MALE-DOMINATED STRUCTURE, HILLARY HAS TO BEAR THE BLUNT THE MOST AS SHE HAS THE AUDACITY TO VENTURE ONTO THE MALE TURF.

Posted by: rose | May 30, 2008 6:41:01 PM

DNC SHOULD BE WELL PREPARED TO ANSWER ALL THE QUESITONS ABOUT REZKO FROM THE REPUBLICAN ATTACK MACHINE IF THEY CHOSE TO SIDE WITH OBAMA.
PERHAPS THE MIDNIGHT COMICS HAVE A POINT: DEMOCRATS ARE SKILLFUL IN LOSING ELECTIONS.
HILLARY'S "GAFES" CANNOT BE COMPARED WITH CORRUPTION. REPUBLICANS MAY MAKE A LITTLE FUN OF HILLARY BUT THEY DO NOT POSSESS LETHAL AMMUNITIONS TO MAKE HER MORIBUND.

Posted by: thinktwice | May 30, 2008 6:46:10 PM

WOW, HOW DESPERATE AND LOW CAN ANYONE GET!!! WHEN THEY CAN'T FIND ANYTHING WRONG ABOUT POOR HILLARY WHO JUST CAN'T GIVE THEM THE DIRT THEY CRAVE, THEY TRIED TO PIN BILL'S TRESGRESSIONS ONTO HER.
AND THIS IS DURING THE TIME WHEN THEIR CHOSNE ONE IS SUPPOSED TO BE WINNING. WHAT KIND OF CRAZED AND DIRTY TACITICS WILL THEY ENGAGE IN IF THEY LOSE.
GOD HELP US IF THEY WIN!!!

Posted by: godhelpus | May 30, 2008 6:58:53 PM

REZKO WILL NOT GO AWAY AS HIS HUGE SUPPORT TO OBAMA'S PUBLIC AND PRIVATE FINANCE ARE WELL KNOWN TO REPUBLICANS.
REPUBLICANS ARE SETTING A TRAP NOW BY REMAINING MUM ABOUT IT UNTIL OBAMA STEPS ONTO THE PODIUM WITH HIS GRAND AND COCKY MANNER.
JUST WAIT!!
OBAMA SUPPORTERS HAVE SEEN SO MANY OF THEIR WISHFUL THINGKING COME TRUE. BUT THEY FORGET THEY ARE DEALING WITH THE DEMOCRATS SO FAR. REPBULICANS? HUM, REPUBLICANS WILL REALLY LET REZKO SINK IN THE SUNSET!
PERHAPS WE SHOULD ALL WAIT FOR BUSH TO ADMIT HE WAS WRONG IN INVADING IRAQ. I'LL BET ON THE LATTER.

Posted by: wishfulthinking | May 30, 2008 7:06:33 PM

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