The Numbers
A Run at the Latest Data from ABC's Poobah of Polling, Gary Langer
Gary Langer is director of polling at ABC News, where he's covered the beat of public opinion for nearly 20 years - conducting and analyzing ABC News polls, evaluating data from other sources and setting the news division's standards for poll reporting. Langer has won two Emmy awards for ABC's reporting of public opinion polls in Iraq, and The Numbers blog was honored this year as winner of the 2008 Iowa Gallup Award for Excellent Journalism Using Polls.
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What the Heck Happened
May 30, 2008 3:38 PM
The approaching end of the primary season prompts a terrific question: What the heck happened?
You’ll hear answers from a lot of sources. But a beautiful thing about the internet is that you can also dig out some of your own conclusions – or fact-check what you’re hearing from others – by going directly to the source. With that in mind we’ve posted full exit poll results from each state contest in which they were conducted. Click here to get there.
We’ve been dissecting these polls in detail all year; they’re an absolutely invaluable source of intelligence on the election outcomes. Our fundamental understanding of the contours of the Democratic and Republican nominating contests alike relies on them.
There’s some apparent misunderstanding of how these polls are done. Interviews are conducted in person at randomly selected polling places in each state; voters leaving the polling place are randomly selected to participate. Interviewers note the sex, race and estimated age of those who decline; these are used in a non-response adjustment. In states where it's estimated that about a quarter of the vote, more or less, will be by absentee ballot, telephone polls supplement the exit polls.
There can be differential non-response in exit polls; for example, in many of this year’s Democratic primaries Barack Obama's supporters have been disproportionately apt to participate. In addition to the sex, race and age adjustment, the exit poll is adjusted for non-response in two other ways: Preliminary results are partially weighted to an estimate derived from pre-election polls, and later results are weighted to the actual vote as it becomes available.
One use of the exit polls is to assist efforts by news organizations to project winners. Another use – the one I find most valuable – is to enable us to make an independent, valid and reliable assessment of who voted, how and why. You've seen our analyses. Have a look at the data.
May 30, 2008 in 2008 Primaries | Permalink | User Comments (26)
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GEE, I DID NOT KNOW REZKO WAS A FAIRYBOOK FIGURE AS HANKS AND GRETEL ARE MANUFACTURED.
ARE THE CHICAGO ATTORNEYS CRAZY THAT THEY PROSECUTED A FICTIONAL FIGURE WITH MANUFACTURED PROBLMES?
Posted by: christiananderson | May 30, 2008 7:10:12 PM
HRC blew it, that's what happened. Bad campaign organization, week strategym incoherent and constantly changing message, out of control husband..etc
Posted by: DMR | May 30, 2008 7:49:28 PM
"What the heck happened" is going to be the cry when the DNC nominates Obama and he cannot put away McCain in the GE.
They sure are going to have the face the music with that one, its going to be a long list of I told you so
Posted by: SJ | May 30, 2008 7:51:58 PM
The Many Excuses of the Clintons
..........You've got a good list except for the last two lines. Change them to this:
But it's never simply Barack
No, it's Both
Why is McCain going to win? Democrats
Posted by: JR | May 30, 2008 8:25:55 PM
What went wrong?
Arrogance.
Posted by: Chuckamok | May 30, 2008 9:13:19 PM
McCain graduated 894th out of 899 in his class at the Naval Academy. I really don't think Americans...once they get to know the facts about McSame...are going to go with another moron running the country after The Bush Jr Disaster.
Posted by: wilder5121 | May 30, 2008 9:18:06 PM
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