The Numbers

Texas is a screwy system by my estimation as well. But the answer to your question on how she loses the caucuses there is simple: they weren't the same voters. Maybe Republicans who voted for her didn't want to stick out the caucuses; maybe her supporters were bullied. Doesn't matter. The Obama campaign managers, whether you like them or not, knew the rules of these games better than the Clinton campaign managers.

MI guy.

Agreed. I have the most enormous respect for Axelrod and Burton. They blew the clintons away on the ground and on the internet.

I do hate Axelrod for several reasons I wont mention here, but he is one wicked campaign manager.

But look at what has happened here.

Its not like 1/2 blacks voted for Obama, 1/2 for Clinton.

1/2 women for Obama, 1/2 for clinton.

Both candidates voted specifically out of identity groups.

If Obama doesnt pick Hillary for the VP spot, then he isnt as smart as we all think he is.

You cant take voter groups like this and simply 'hope' they come together.

As for 'hope and change' , who is he going to pick who ISNT part of the system ?

He cant pick another woman. The clinton women voters would REVOLT .

I dont know who he could honestly pick that would bring the clinton supporters to him other than Hillary Clinton.

The clinton support is 16 years old. It goes back to 1992.

You picked a real clear politics version of it that doesnt include michigan.

The DNC has offically recognized the michigan vote now.

Clinton egro is the winner of the popular vote.

@cgeast:

I know one thing for sure - I'm certainly not as smart on the delegate/electoral math as the Obama folks are.

It seems to me McCain is making a big mistake by running as a moderate and jettisoning conservatives, evangelicals, and big business (so far). My guess is he backtracks, which he has done a lot of lately, and chooses a conservative for VP. They then paint Obama as a whiny, inexperienced, US hater who wipes his rear with the flag. He needs a VP candidate who helps deflect some of that nonsense.

To me, although it would be historic for Clinton to be VP, I think she would turn it down. I don't think she did this to make history, I think she wants the powere. The VP spot is a weak position and she would be marginalized. She would be better off as someone in the Cabinet, Majority leader, or whatever (heck, maybe she bargains for Supreme Court justice).

"Angel, you suggest no one in MI would have voted for Obama."

The Green Party with Nader did not have its name in the ballots of all 50 states (43) in 2000.

Based on Obama friendly media math, should we add to Ralph Nader popular votes total those voters of the states he was not in the ballot but they wanted to vote for Nader?

In addition, you have to ask how many DEMOCRATIC votes each candidate got. With Rush Limbaugh urging Republican voters to cross over and vote for Hillary, should you really only count the votes in those states where only Democrats could vote? Wouldn't that be a more accurate representation of how Democrats feel about the candidates?

I changed over to Independent. I would never vote for Obama ever!!! WE aren't crying. We are mad as hell and will all vote for McCain. So why don't you get over it. Republicans for 8 more years.

With 90% of the Clinton supporters, Obama can still win with inflated youth turnout.

80% , hes going to have to hope there is a major skelleton in Mc Cains closet.

70% or less, he loses .

Obama has to offer the VP spot to clinton. Whether she accepts or not.

She can decline and still campaign hard for him.

If he doesnt offer it to her, he simply does not bring the voters together.

@cgeast: maybe, maybe not. it's about the math. say 1/3 of clinton supporters do not vote for Obama, as some polls suggest (but is probably high). Starting at 50% of the total, that's 16.7%. Then assuming the typical voter turnout of around 50%, that leaves about 8.3% that don't vote for Obama. That's probably a high estimate, but it is also fair to assume that many of these 8.3% will write in HRC or vote for someone besides McCain.

So, it will probably work out to 2-6% that Obama loses out to McCain. Now, does he lose any votes by adding her to the ticket? And since the presidential election isn't decided by popular vote, it is more important to figure this all out on a state-by-state basis.

I'm sure the Obama tacticians have already done this, know which states they must win, and will decide on the person who is most likely to help him carry those states.

It's not a personal affront if he doesn't offer it to her; it's about winning. She would do the same in his position. It could very well be, as you suggest, that she is the right person for VP.

Are some of you not sick of the MSM spin by now I say let them crown Obama geez lets get this over with, the faster they can do that its the quicker we will find out who was right or wrong.

Obama say everyone will jump on board he will get all the Hillary supporters to vote for him, the Obama fans says they are going to wipe McCain off the map, well lets get busy now.

Lets see who is going to have the last laugh am sick of all this debating now.

@SJ: Still over 5 months left; lots of debating to go. Sorry, sounds like blog fatigue. Maybe time for a vacation - turn off the computer and TV and come back in November. I'm kinda sick of it too and it will be interesting to see how it all plays out.

OBAMA WOULD GET ZERO VOTE IN MI ONLY IN AN IDIOT'S/FOOL'S/HYPOCRITE's CALCULATION.

Hey Moeen,

Obama was the idiot/fool/hypocrite who took his name off the Michigan ballot because his polling told him that he would be crushed. Stick with Obama, though, he needs as many people who think like you as possible.
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What kind of zombie would claim votes that never happened?

MIguy I still feel all this pandering to Obama that the media loves to do, they will have hell to pay because he cannot beat McCain.

The media feels this is a joke but there are some very ###### people out there as to what is being done, but I guess the media does not want to notice that, I have read a lot of blogs and I am 100% sure that person and not bluffing with their protest votes to McCain.

Same Stuff,
The poll that would be relevant, and the only poll that is relevant is based on the electoral map. Hillary wins that handily, Obama loses it handily. This explains why Hillary Clinton is the first choice for the MAJORITY of Democrats and Obama is the lesser choice. Buy go right ahead and try to defy history. It will be a learning experience for an entire generation.
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Hillary in '08 or '12, the lower the year number the higher the IQ of the Democratic Party!
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The fact is Obama doesnt deserve any votes in Michigan.

He agreed that no delegates would be awarded and not to campaign. So did clinton etc.........

So he got awarded his share of all the uncommited delegates blah blah, hey, even swipe some from Clinton and give em to obama to boot.

But Obama took the step of removing his name from the ballot. A step nobody asked him to take.

So no, he doesnt get any popular votes because he wasnt on the ballot.

@SJ: I don't pay much attention to what goes on in the blogs nor do I trust the media in general. The media has given up objectivity for access and has given up real investigative reporting in general.

As for McCain, he is a nice enough guy and I voted for him in 2000. He's different now than he was then, though. I think he loses because of the economy: whether one is for or against the Iraq war, the simple fact is that we can't afford it. His insistence on the war, without offering a new solution for the economy at home will be his downfall. I'm a fiscal conservative and although the Democrats will raise taxes and blow our wad, at least they'll do it here rather than letting it go to corrupt politicians overseas. $4/gallon gas is painful and people will vote their pocketbooks.

Of course, I could easily be wrong...

THESE DEMOCRATIC PRIMARIES ARE NOT YET OVER. IT WILL NOT BE OVER UNTIL THIS COMING TUESDAY AND HOPEFULLY, THEN HILLARY CLINTON WILL BE ABLE TO WIN OVER THE SUPER DELEGATES. IF NOT, THEN I GUESS OBAMA WILL BE THE NOMINEE. HOWEVER, OBAMA SUPPORTERS, FOR YOUR INFORMATION, DON'T GET YOUR GET YOUR HOPES TOO HIGH UP. WHY? WELL, I HAVE A FEELING THAT COME NOVEMBER MILLIONS OF LOYAL REPUBLICANS WILL SHOW THEIR UNDYING SUPPORT FOR THEIR PARTY BY VOTING FOR MCCAIN. AS THIS IS SUPPOSE TO BE A FREE COUNTRY, THESE REPUBLICANS HAVE THAT RIGHT AND PRIVILEGED. JUST AS YOU OBAMA SUPPORTERS HAVE THE RIGHT TO FALL FOR ALL OF OBAMA'S RHETORIC ABOUT HOPE AND CHANGE. A MORE FITTING SLOGAN IS HATE AND CRAP. FROM WHAT I HAVE OBSERVED FROM THE OBAMA CAMPAIGN THEY ARE VERY GOOD AT SPREADING THE HATE AND THEIR CAMPAIGN IS SURE FULL OF CRAP. OBAMA MUST HAVE ACQUIRED THIS BEHAVIOR FROM THE TRINITY CHURCH HE HAS BEEN AFFILIATED WITH FOR 20 YEARS. THEREFORE, OBAMA SUPPORTERS AS I SAID DON'T GET YOUR HOPES UP TOO HIGH, BECAUSE COME NOVEMBER THOSE LOYAL REPUBLICANS WILL SHOW THEIR SUPPORT FOR MCCAIN AND THOSE HILLARY CLINTON SUPPORTERS, WHOM YOU HAVE LABELED AS STUPID, UNEDUCATED, AND SORE LOSERS WILL MOLST LIKELY, VOTE FOR MCCAIN BECAUSE THEY DO NOT FALL FOR OBAMA'S RHETORIC AND NONSENSE. SO, I CAN'T WAIT TILL NOVEMBER WHEN ALL OF YOU CRY, CRY, CRY AWAY LIKE BITTER, SORE LOSERS. EVEN THOUGH MANY OF YOU HAVE FALLEN FOR OBAMA'S CRAP, THERE ARE MANY MORE PEOPLE WHO DO NOT SUPPORT HIM BECAUSE THEY SEE THROUGH ALL HIS NONSENSE.

@MG: Republicans, like Democrats, are not as mindless as you suggest. Most people want to vote FOR a candidate, not AGAINST another. McCain must provide a reasonable rationale to vote for him.

The trend since 2006 has been clear that people want something different than Bush/Cheney have offered. McCain, whether he likes it or not, is running as the incumbent because of his ties to Bush. That's why Obama says their two names together every chance he gets. Unless McCain finds some way to divorce himself of Bush, he will lose. (Bush, by the way, is not a real conservative and I don't consider him a real Republican).

Hillary math is not a recognized math, but something Hillary cooked up to confuse the superdelegates with.