The Numbers
A Run at the Latest Data from ABC's Poobah of Polling, Gary Langer
Gary Langer is director of polling at ABC News, where he's covered the beat of public opinion for nearly 20 years - conducting and analyzing ABC News polls, evaluating data from other sources and setting the news division's standards for poll reporting. Langer has won two Emmy awards for ABC's reporting of public opinion polls in Iraq, and The Numbers blog was honored this year as winner of the 2008 Iowa Gallup Award for Excellent Journalism Using Polls.
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Drill Here, Get Gas
June 17, 2008 3:20 PM
John McCain’s push on energy policy today is good cause for a quick review of recent data. Let’s start with one approach I don’t love.
A recent Gallup poll asked people if, “to attempt to reduce the price of gasoline,” they favor or oppose drilling in U.S. coastal and wilderness areas. Fifty-seven percent were in favor, but this kind of question makes me worry about positive-attribute bias. It posits a reduction of gas prices, with no balancing language on the other side – raising skepticism whether and when prices indeed would fall (there’s debate), or environmental concerns, or frankly anything to level the playing field in considering the options.
In previous polling, support for drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, for example, has been lower than the 57 percent number Gallup produced. It may be that support for drilling has increased as gas prices have run up. It also may just be an example of how message testing works: If you want to promote drilling, do so as a way to cut gas prices.
In a better Gallup question, but one dating to March, 61 percent preferred “more conservation by consumers of existing energy supplies" over “production of more oil, gas and coal supplies" (29 percent). And in a Pew poll in February, the public more narrowly opposed drilling specifically in ANWR, by 50-42 percent.
Setting aside whether it's reasonable, people generally favor soft energy (wind, solar etc.) and conservation over traditional energy sources. In that same Pew poll, the public opposed tax breaks for oil exploration by 53-42 percent, and split on government promotion of nuclear power, 48 percent opposed vs. 44 percent in favor; but favored federal funding for research on wind, solar and hydrogen technology by 81-14 percent and on mass transit by 72-23 percent.
Separately, from our new ABC/Post poll:
Americans trust Obama over McCain…
-to handle energy policy, by 51-36 percent;
-to handle gas prices, by 50-30 percent; and
-to handle global warming and other environmental issues, by 55-28 percent.
And by 2-1 (63-32 percent), the public says it’s preferable for the government to offer tax breaks for companies to develop alternative energy sources, rather than to leave it to the marketplace.
June 17, 2008 in 2008 General Election, Environment and Energy | Permalink | User Comments (21)
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Well this goes to show that all the legislation for renewable energy that Mcsame voted againts was out of touch. If he would have helped pass this stuff 5 years ago we wouldn't be in a crisis right now.
Posted by: Joe | Jun 17, 2008 3:53:46 PM
You bet we need to drill in our own country, we have the technology to do it in a way that is safe for the environment, it brings jobs for our country, we become energy independant, and we lead the way, and become the strong nation that we once were. If we don't use our resources, and things keep going the way they are, this energy shortage will cripple our nation, and none of us will get to enjoy our environment. Turn it up full speed ahead!
Posted by: lori | Jun 17, 2008 4:01:37 PM
What about global warming?
Posted by: Joe | Jun 17, 2008 4:17:48 PM
I hope you guys don't like living in the south because it will be too hot there... Hows the heat wave going? its snowing in july up here,,,I bet the mid west loves the flooding
Posted by: Joe | Jun 17, 2008 4:35:10 PM
Joe, I don't know where you are, but it's June here.
Posted by: JR | Jun 17, 2008 4:45:34 PM
OK So we drill in ANWAR and off the coast of Florida. The oil starts flowing in 7 to 10 years to the gas pumps and lasts maybe 5 to 10 years. Where do we get oil from in our own country when that runs out? There has got to better alternatives.
Posted by: vinnie | Jun 17, 2008 4:45:38 PM
Sorry June! Still it was 32 degrees last week now it's 87 the mid west is flooding heat wave in the rest of the country. What do you guys think is going on? Act of god? Drill more oil put it in your car and burn it up... You'll kill us all!
Posted by: Joe | Jun 17, 2008 4:54:35 PM
What bugs me is that all this was gone over in the '70's. We've had 30 years, where are the wind farms, the solar farms, the roof top solar arrays, the clean coal plants and the good mileage cars? If we drill into new big sources, prices will drop and everybody will go about there business just like last time. Don't get me wrong, I drive a SUV just like most of America but then, what was the alternative? Can you name a car that gets good mpg and can pull a trailer and carry a load of supplies or people that costs less than $30,0000? Why not?
Posted by: JR | Jun 17, 2008 4:54:36 PM
BEING A VERY LIMITED RESOURSE WHERE WILL WE DRILL NEXT PERHAPS ON THE MOON---WE NEED ALTERNATE FUELS AND WE NEED THEM FAST.--IF WE PUT AS MUCH EFFORT IN ALTERNATE AS WE PUT IN DRILLING WE WOULD BE INDEPENDENT. SORRY FOR CAPS
Posted by: rodney | Jun 17, 2008 4:55:56 PM
Yeah rodney, I think this latest runup is total bull. It's supposed to be based on the increase in demand from the world (read China and India) but the price was risen from $30 to $140 per barrel in seven years and demand hasn't jumped over 4 times in the last seven years.
Posted by: JR | Jun 17, 2008 5:05:53 PM
Oh, and in 1973 I drove a Datsun 510 4 cylinder that got 29 mpg. It got across the country three times but barely could get out of it's own way.
Posted by: JR | Jun 17, 2008 5:08:49 PM
jr
and it still costs the arabs 2.00 a barrel to produce--disgusting is it not----there is to much power in too little hands---no competition and i assure it arranged that way to rob us.
Posted by: rodney | Jun 17, 2008 5:09:38 PM
joe
as far as weather nothing that is happening today--is different than what has happened in the past.you overestimate mans effect.
Posted by: rodney | Jun 17, 2008 5:18:52 PM
If not for greenhouse gasses we would all freeze at night. We have not begun to tap into the worlds oil reserves. Most of our oil is between 5 & 20 miles down and is produced by the earth not dead plants. Oil will continue to flow from the ground until we find a cheaper form of energy we are willing to use (We would have more electric cars if not for our government stopping all new reactors for the last 30+ years. What else will they screw up? - Answer any thing they touch.)
Posted by: David | Jun 18, 2008 1:00:35 AM
At $35 a barrel oil wasn't worth the effort to get it out of the ground in Texas, but at over $135 a barrel it's windfall time again. Oil producers don't want the price of oil to fall again, and I don't believe it will. But at over $135 a barrel they want to produce as much as they can....were ever it is! This is by design people. It's about greed, and Bush is at the botton of the heap.
Posted by: Texas Lil | Jun 19, 2008 4:30:03 PM
There are certain things that should not be up for a vote. Whether or not to drill or to build a refinery are a couple. These are private business decisions that the government should not be involved in. Who knows the best whether or not to do these things other than the people doing them for a living. Congressman that never set sight on an oil rig are clueless when it comes to anything related to energy. To have them leading our energy policy is like trusting a blind man to drive my car because all my neighbors voted that he could.
Posted by: Kurtis | Jun 19, 2008 10:52:54 PM
offshore drilling NO there is plenty of land to drill on and this is not a quick fix. regulations should be set and our presidents and legislators need to make decisions on healthcare and social security which has been screwed with our leaders need to cut back on ear marks and their own benefits the american people are not the only ones to be punished. This president is the worsed starting war not warrented and causing us money to go to nothing and osama still is not caught and killed.
The housing crisis needs to help people, mortgage companies should be punished also and regulated as should gas since the companies and president are not able to curb there profits. Illegal immigrants need to go back where they came from I am tired of talking to people who do not speak English and act like we are the foreigners and causes American money to be spent on jail, medical care on them rather than the Americans who paid for all this through taxes. We need someone who is honest and fair and neither candidate is that man. The whole government needs an overhaul and we should not vote for anyone who is already in Washington.
Posted by: bonita steigerwald | Jun 20, 2008 7:58:05 AM
I am ceaselessly amazed by the rank, subterranean-level ignorance of 99.9999% of the "people" of this country, who together make the policies that the other 0.0001% have to live (and die) with.
This page is 6-3 against new federal-land production. Bravo. But does a SINGLE person here know that that oil, OUR oil that belongs to US THE PEOPLE, we SELL to the oil companies for 35-50 cents a gallon, and each gallon they turn into about .83 gallons of gasoline, plus something like half a gallon of diesel, a pint or so of jet fuel, and a few hundred grams of asphalt, plastics, propane, butane, and alcohol -- AND THEY ARE SELLING ALL OF THIS BACK TO US FOR OVER seven dollars!!!!
On a per-barrel basis, this is: SELL TO the companies for $15-$20 per barrel of crude, BUY BACK FROM the companies at MORE THAN $294 per barrel of crude.
You "people" (and I use the term very loosely) need to wake up. NO NEW PRODUCTION until we get EITHER a fair wholesale spot price for OUR crude that WE THE PEOPLE OWN -- "O" ... "W" ... "N" not a difficult concept for most of you alleged "people" -- OR the companies are required to account for all lots of OUR energy separately from other sources, and charge us based on cost plus a certain percentage.
Stupid "people".
By what right to you profess to help influence policy in contravention of the rest of us who know the facts? Oh, you have the power, no doubt about that. But by right you should have to prove you know, and understand, the relevant facts in order to exercise that power. Also, by what right do you advocate giving away part of MY share of the oil, and all the shares of people who may not be voicing their opinion? You know, I didn't study economics, so to me that's called "theft" or "larceny". Specifically of the "grand" variety. Silly me, using my brain and my mouth without benefit of the proper "re-education".
Does anybody here, be they for or against more production, understand that there are now two domestic exchanges out there, one regulated and one not regulated, for crude oil and refined products? That the insiders pay one price by virtue of being admitted to the invitation-only semi-secret exchange which does not publish any info about its trades, trading volume, or price statistics -- while the rest of the wholesale community goes to the public, regulated exchange and pays the prices we see reported on television? This means the insiders can buy at their insider, unreported price, and then turn right back around and sell the SAME !#%^ oil or refined product on the public exchange for the publicly reported price. Or, they can buy crude at the insider price, refine it, then sell the refined products on the public exchange for the publicly reported prices.
Does anybody here, be they for or against more production, understand that the public, regulated exchange contains phalanxes of big oil representatives whose job includes BUYING BACK THE SAME OIL THEIR OWN COMPANY IS OFFERING FOR SALE, for the sole purpose of illegally driving the price up?
And those "brilliant" Democrats in Congress pass a law to crack down on "price gouging" at the pump. Yeah, we're being gouged -- not at the pump, but practically everywhere else including IN THE WELLS OF THE HOUSE AND THE SENATE.
Is anyone here, for or against more production, aware that country after country of Latin America has awoken to these same issues in their own country and DEALT ACCORDINGLY WITH THE FORK-TOUNGED THIEVES of their oil and gas? Venezuela, Bolivia, Ecuador, Peru. Agreed, that Chavez has taken certain things a bit too far. But he's certainly no worse than our political class, in that department. We, as citizens, must judge each country's energy policy independently from their other actions. There is no reason we cannot condemn certain actions of a leader or a political party while simultaneously praising their other actions. I think we would expect no less from the rest of the world, with respect to our current "leadership". No one is completely bad or completely good.
Wake up, "people". Stop plaguing the rest of us with your opinion unless and until you can demonstrate full understanding of a problem. And, above all, stop doing thought experiments with MY OIL!!!!! I HAVE A SHARE, AND THAT SHARE IS NOT YOURS!!!! IT'S MINE!!!! SO, PAWS OFF!!!!
Posted by: RTF | Jun 20, 2008 2:47:25 PM
High oil/fuel prices will drive conservation and alternatives.
The government shouldn't restrict any options though if they can be explored responsibly.
What we need are stability, which doesn't mean higher or lower prices, just that they stabilize, and we need unbiased experts to examine and target abuse of the system.
Right now prices are rising too fast and people are getting in a panic. Those of us that live well within our means don't have cause for panic. Call it luck or skill but you do with what you have, not with what you want to have.
Drive less if you can but the level of obesity in this country shows we are not making use of alternatives. As well, we are still paying less for gas than many countries so I wouldn't complain too loudly.
Imagine how much boycotting would occur if just one of our major oil companies is found to have been blatently gouging.
Maybe it is a conspiracy but in an economy where every penny counts, buy the cheapest gas you can find! :)
Posted by: TF | Jun 21, 2008 2:04:51 PM
Here is the letter I emailed my congressinal delegation:
There seems to be some confusion or uncertainty about what we do about the near term, mid term and long-term energy problems. As a household with 4 registered voters, I would like to relay our position on this.
Drill through the floor of the Senate if it will bring more oil.. Install a drilling rig inside the Washington monument if that will provide a penny of price relief. Oil shale – love that stuff. Nuke power, put it in my backyard. No problems -- keep investing in higher efficiency technology, no problems -- keep working on alternative energy production (provided it is cost effective.)
Key point right now is – energy efficiency technology is not now cost effective – even the ten year low voltage bulbs tend to break faster than traditional and cost so much more that they are not saving but a few pennies.. Bought them many times. They don’t work!!! We heard a report former future President of the United States A. Gore, spent tens of thousands to improve energy efficiency in his carbon mega footprint, only to have the footprint grow faster than his ego did. My hybrid gets exactly 1.5 miles per gallon more than my old “inefficient” junk car at a cost of $4000 more upfront. Breakeven point – 13.4 years!!! To say we are going to wait 10 to 20 years for this technology to mature to do something about energy is irresponsible.
Prices are being driven not by demand and supply issues today. The speculators having shifted from dot coms, to mortgages and now to energy are looking at the fact that two billion additional oil consumers coming to the market over the next 10 years (6 times as many new consumers as in the US.today will want our foreign oil – we need our own supplies just to keep prices stable at ridiculous prices. Investors and speculators like many congress persons are locking in long term supplies and contracts through their blind trusts to make hedge money as that happens. Fair, I would do that too if I had the money.
And do you not get that gasoline is the tip of the energy iceberg. Why are you all hiding from us, that electricity prices will increase 20 to 40 per cent everywhere this winter after just going up nearly 50% the past couple years. Natural gas and fuel oil are also going up just not getting the press …. Yet!!! Mass transit prices are now adjusting by a factor of 25 to 40% And so on and so on. Rome is burning!!!!
Further, right now with market whipped up in speculative frenzy, any of our adversaries in the world, could attack us through overseas oil and send a tremendous shockwaves through the economy such as raising inflation and unemployment by several percentages. If either Iran, Venezuela, or any number of other producers were to start manipulating supply for political attack purposes, we have no defense ready or on the horizon. China, Russia have authority over U.S. policy so long as they are willing to suffer the pain of destabilizing oil supplies. Al Qaeda could do more economic damage than 9/11 with a few well placed attacks. So even if prices keep going up, even if China and India nuke each other out of the consumer market for oil, we still need to have what oil we do use come from local shores. Period. Even if it costs more that way!
Seems we have an energy crisis. Let’s not have an intelligence crisis in our elected leaders adding to the problem. Vote now and vote often for drilling in the Grand Canyon and Yosemite park if necessary and blast the mountains down till they look like valleys if that is what it takes !!! Afterall, scientists have let us know, the future of earth is to be consumed in the sun before it fails and spewed out as basic elements again into the cosmos. So let’s raise a glass of sugar ethanol and toast the new year.
There is an opportunity here as well. Add a nickel pay back to each gallon of new authorized capacity … and you can buy a Blue Cross policy for everyone in America. Add another penny, you get dental and vision too. Make it ten cents and you can send every American child to Harvard on full scholarship as well. If you don’t, American money will be buying health care and college for kids overseas who want to blow up buildings to impress the world with their meglomania.. Which do you support?
Thank you,
Posted by: is_it_just_me | Jun 22, 2008 6:01:10 PM
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