The Numbers
A Run at the Latest Data from ABC's Poobah of Polling, Gary Langer
Gary Langer is director of polling at ABC News, where he's covered the beat of public opinion for nearly 20 years - conducting and analyzing ABC News polls, evaluating data from other sources and setting the news division's standards for poll reporting. Langer is a two-time Emmy award winner, both for ABC's reporting of public opinion polls in Iraq.
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Vote Tally: Can We Just Call it a Tie?
June 04, 2008 9:40 AM
Barack Obama won the delegates, but who won the vote?
We’ll never know for sure. But results from the South Dakota and Montana primaries – where Obama netted a total of 17,128 votes – do allow us to compute final estimates, using the parameters and suppositions I’ve outlined here and here.
Conclusion: Give Obama zero in Michigan and Hillary Clinton won the popular vote, as she’s grown fond of claiming. But give Obama 40 percent there (the “uncommitted” vote, and pretty much what the DNC Rules Committee did), or leave out Michigan, or leave out Michigan and Florida alike, and by our calculations, he did.
The margins, though, are ridiculously thin: With the Michigan uncommitteds we estimate an 82,881-vote margin for Obama out of more than 37 million cast, or two-tenths of one percent. With nothing for Obama from Michigan, it’s a Clinton margin of 155,287, or four-tenths of one percent. Exclude Michigan entirely and it’s Obama by half a percent. Exclude Florida as well and it’s Obama by a smidge over 1 percent.
Those are squint-thin margins, in calculations that necessarily don’t hold up to much hard squinting. In popular vote, here’s a proposed compromise: Let's just call it a tie.
With FL vote and With FL vote and
MI uncommitted to Obama MI zero to Obama
Obama 18,697,142 18,458,974
Clinton 18,614,261 18,614,261Ob +82,881 Cl +155,287
Without With FL,
MI and FL Without MI
Obama 17,882,760 18,458,974
Clinton 17,414,966 18,285,952Ob +467,794 Ob +173,022
June 4, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (72)
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Hillary is the example of a Machiavellian human gone completely over the deep end much the same as some historical dictators like Stalin, Lenin and so on. If she cannot have the pie, nobody can or so her delusioned brain thinks.
Posted by: rockychance | Jun 4, 2008 9:52:10 AM
It's not a tie, Obama won more. AND he won the educated voters too. That says something.
Posted by: mike | Jun 4, 2008 9:52:29 AM
This delusion really needs to stop. As Americans we know from day one it's about delegates. Have some respect for all parties and let's move on.
Posted by: jAYjAY | Jun 4, 2008 9:54:47 AM
For those supporters who going through a rough time.. here are the five steps of grief after suffering any major lost.. so we will give you time to recover and let the healing begin..
1. Denial (last 2 months)
2. Anger (nomination speech)
3. Bargaining (begging for VP)
4 Depression (not getting VP)
5. Acceptance (i.e Voting for Obama in the general election..
YES WE CAN!!! UNITE!
Posted by: Lawrence | Jun 4, 2008 9:56:16 AM
As she trumpets her recent wins, please keep in mind that as these primaries played out, Obama had already gone into General Election mode after Ohio and Texas ensured that there was no way that Clinton could catch him.
As the Clinton campaign went into the "kitchen sink" strategy, going negative over Rezko, Wright, Ayers etc. please notice that the Obama campaign never mentioned Norman Hsu, Denise Rich, Rose Law records, the Bill Clinton foreign investor connections and terrorist Pardons etc. All things that the Republicans would have used. Instead Obama, knowing that he'd need to bring in Clinton supporters, took the negative hits without returning them. If he had played it like the Clinton campaign, she would not have run off anything close to this string of victories.
It will be different in the final. He does not have to play nice like this with the McCain campaign and if McCain goes negative expect Obama to respond in kind, neutralizing the negative benefit.
Posted by: The Other Ed | Jun 4, 2008 10:02:40 AM
Don't even try to beat the dead horse or resurface the unrealistic issue. WE PLAY BY THE RULE.
Posted by: mampang | Jun 4, 2008 10:08:50 AM
59 delegates "gifted" to Barack under the guise of "unity" does not a nominee make. This will be challanged in court and they will be taken away. Claiming he is the nominee does not make it so. Supers don't vote until August. So, until then......there is no nominee. Neither has reached the threshold.
Posted by: SadStateOfAffairs | Jun 4, 2008 10:09:44 AM
CAN'T ANYONE SEE THROUGH THE GLASS? OBAMA IS NOT QUALIFIED TO THE HIGHEST POSITION. HE HAS VERY THIN RESUME. GEEZ, WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO AMERICA? WORSE THAN BUSH...WE NEED THE CLINTONS BACK IN THE WHITE HOUSE...THEY KNOW HOW TO CLEAN UP THE MESS LEFT BY THE BUSH. THEY ARE THE ONLY ONES WHO UNDERSTAND THE AMERICAN ECONOMY. REMEMBER THE 90'S? US WAS WORLD'S #1 WITH THE STRONGEST ECONOMY FAR BETTER THAN WHAT WE HAD FROM JFK YEARS EVEN IF HE LIVED LONGER....
Posted by: neil1785 | Jun 4, 2008 10:10:37 AM
ACCORDING TO RECENT POLLS FROM FOXNEWS, OBAMA IS LOSING A REASONABLE MARGIN TO MCCAIN IN FLORIDA, MICHIGAN, PENNSYLVANIA AND OHIO. EXPECT ANOTHER DEMOCRATIC DEFEAT THIS FALL.
THERE'S A BIG CHANCE THAT HILLARY WILL DECIDE TO RUN INDEPENDENT THAT'S WHY SHE LEFT HER CONCESSION HANGING FOR A WHILE TO GET SOME ADVISE FROM HER SUPPORTERS WHO SUGGESTED HER TO RUN INDEPENDENT, YOU'LL SEE. SHE'S DEMOCRATIC BY HEART BUT COUNTRY FIRST BEFORE PARTY.
Posted by: neil1785 | Jun 4, 2008 10:13:44 AM
As a coach, I learned that: "It's bad luck to be behind when the game ends!"
Hillary is suffering a bit of "bad luck!"
Posted by: Charles McKinney | Jun 4, 2008 10:14:48 AM
IF HILLARY CARES ABOUT THIS COUNTRY, SHE SHOULD RUN INDEPENDENT. WE CANNOT AFFORD A JOB TRAINEE IN THE PRESIDENT POSITION. HE IS TOO JUNIOR AND INEXPERIENCED TO HANDLE THE MOST COMPLICATED TASKS IN THE WORLD. THAT'S THE REAL ISSUE HERE NOT TO MENTION HIS BAD BACKGROUND, ASSOCIATIONS, LIES AND PRETENSIONS.
I THINK HILLARY IS RESERVING THAT RIGHT WHEN SHE DID NOT MAKE ANY CONCESSION SPEECH LAST NIGHT.
Posted by: neil1785 | Jun 4, 2008 10:16:52 AM
neil and sadstate
you guys are so simplistically republican its sick.
First off, he clinched the nomintaion, its over, im sorry sadstate you cant continue to play the hillary card. Even if she takes it to the convention and they say, you know your people voted to strip these states but we will seat them in full.
He still wins the next magic number because hes gone over that threshold too. IT IS OVER GIVE IT UP.
Neil,
the voters have spoken, every state has spoken, obama has beat the clinton machine, and is now going for your true candidate of choice mccain. I know you are desperate to try to keep thsi thing going because you know mccain is weak and not a very good candidate.
Hillary should have made a concession speech last night or at least congratulated him. It was a very bad tactical move on her part.
In obamas speech he said exactly what he is going to have hillary do, and that is help reform health care.
Hillarys voters will rally behind obama because they as candidates are very similar and like she said shes been working on health care for sixteen years.
HIllary is going to get behind obama. This is over
Posted by: bhrandon | Jun 4, 2008 10:25:32 AM
She lost. End of story. Its time for HRC to act like a grown up.
Posted by: DMR | Jun 4, 2008 10:28:51 AM
I could barely afford the $300 I contributed to Hillary Clinton's campaign, and now I know it was wasted. The "Obamanation" was a done deal, served up by the DNC.
It kind of makes the news rather dull for the next five months. The "contest" is over (if it ever WAS a contest).
Last night, I switched my allegiance... to Old Man McCain. I really don't need any more campaign rhetoric.
Posted by: Rhys | Jun 4, 2008 10:30:44 AM
The Emperor has no clothes. That was the case for Bush and unfortunately it's the same for Obama. Even if the popular vote is explained away, Hillary drubbed Obama by the electoral college. Obama, like Bush, is a very talented politician but it takes a different combination of experience and knowledge to govern effectively and solve problems.
Posted by: hopesprings52 | Jun 4, 2008 10:34:30 AM
Obama won and enough of the "tie" crap.
Posted by: Dan | Jun 4, 2008 10:36:27 AM
that's the reason there is no "popular vote totals"
you CAN't call the popular vote...caucus states didn't ahve a popular vote...so you can't call an election half...
that's stupid.
Posted by: dl | Jun 4, 2008 10:36:35 AM
hopesprings, America has just proven that charisma is all that's needed for a nomination. Next, we will see if charisma is all that's needed for an election, and then we will probably find out if an "empty suit" can be an effective President.
After George W. Bush, ANYONE could be President, so maybe Obama can pull it off.
Posted by: Rhys | Jun 4, 2008 10:39:35 AM
dl, the problem is that our primary process HAS NO popular vote. And even some states which DO vote can be told that their votes don't count or are worth only HALF of other states'.
The entire process leaves the chances for corruption wide open, and we have just seen how the party bosses can completely control the outcome.
Thank goodness our general election is governed by LAWS, not party "rules"!
Posted by: Rhys | Jun 4, 2008 10:43:48 AM
The reality is, since the Rev Wright fiasco, Obama has lost all the swing states. He's only won the ones he was WAY ahead in that had super liberal populations, OR/VT, or ones that have high AA populations NC. He was expected to win in SD, and he lost by 10 points. Since March, Clinton has won a lot more votes and won big swing states. That should be a red flag to the DNC.
Posted by: A reader in Georgia | Jun 4, 2008 10:44:55 AM
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