The Numbers
A Run at the Latest Data from ABC's Poobah of Polling, Gary Langer
Gary Langer is director of polling at ABC News, where he's covered the beat of public opinion for nearly 20 years - conducting and analyzing ABC News polls, evaluating data from other sources and setting the news division's standards for poll reporting. Langer is a two-time Emmy award winner, both for ABC's reporting of public opinion polls in Iraq.
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Taking Aim at the Military Vote
July 22, 2008 11:10 AM
Barack Obama is playing to a variety of audiences while he travels abroad this week, with stops in Iraq and Afghanistan as well as Europe. One of them is an interesting voting group that could pack some surprises: Active-duty U.S. military.
Conventional wisdom holds that U.S. service members – including the 500,000 currently serving overseas – are a disproportionately Republican and conservative group. But that assumption is challenged by a unique survey of the U.S. Army done in 2004 by Maj. Jason Dempsey, then of West Point, and Prof. Robert Shapiro of Columbia University, via Columbia’s Institute for Social and Economic Research and Policy.
Their data show that the officer corps indeed is disproportionately conservative and Republican – but that enlisted service members, who make up the bulk of the population, are not. They’re essentially no more conservative, and no more apt to be Republicans, than the U.S. population as a whole. Fewer are Democrats; more, independents.
On ideology, while 63 percent of Army officers identified themselves as conservatives, only half as many enlisted members, 32 percent, said the same. The combined total, 38 percent, is very close to the aggregate for the U.S. public overall in ABC/Post polls this year, 34 percent. Twenty-one percent of all Army service members were liberals – again roughly matching the U.S. public overall.
The survey had to estimate partisan identification in a roundabout way. It asked respondents to place the Democratic and Republican parties on an ideological spectrum, then to place themselves on the same spectrum, then asked if they identified with one of the parties (but not which one). The answers were used to project party allegiance.
The result: Fifty-one percent of Army officers were identified as Republicans, but that fell to 23 percent of enlisted personnel. The net was 29 percent – again very close to the public overall, 27 percent in ABC/Post surveys this year.
There was a big difference in estimated Democratic allegiance: Only 11 or 12 percent of officers or enlisted service members were identified as Democrats. Instead 37 percent of officers, and a whopping 66 percent of the enlisted ranks, were independents, for a net total of 60 percent of U.S. Army personnel.
Independents, as it happens, are the quintessential swing voters in presidential elections.
Ideology Est. party ID
Lib Mod Cons Dem Rep Ind
Officers 14% 23 63 12% 51 37
Enlisted 23 45 32 11 23 66
All 21 41 38 11 29 60
Gen. pop. 23 40 34 37 27 31
(Army data from Jason Dempsey and Robert Shapiro, survey of U.S. Army personnel, Institute for Social and Economic Research and Policy, Columbia University. Gen. pop. data is 2008 ABC/Post aggregate.)
VOTE? – Another question is how many active-duty military actually vote. The Pentagon, which runs the Federal Voting Assistance Program aimed at encouraging turnout, commissioned a survey in 2005 in which 73 percent of uniformed military respondents reported voting in the 2004 election, compared with 57 percent in a 2000 study. (See the full report here.) If so, that’s better than the 60 percent turnout among all eligible voters in 2004.
But the reliability of that survey is in question. Dempsey and Shapiro’s Army survey produced a much-lower 43 percent turnout figure for 2000. (Full disclosure: Shapiro consults with ABC News on exit poll analysis.) Dempsey is skeptical of the FVAP figure for 2004; as he puts it, take a bunch of 18- to 24-year-olds, move them around every few years, and it’s hard to see three-quarters of them voting.
Moreover, the Government Accountability Office has raised questions about the FVAP survey, saying its "estimates and conclusions should be interpreted with caution" because of its response rate, which was low by GAO standards. Scott Wiedmann, deputy director of the FVAP, told me this week that his group agrees with the GAO criticism, avoids projecting the survey results beyond the individuals who participated (though the FVAP report doesn’t read that way to me), and is reworking the methodology to produce better data after this fall’s election. Wiedmann referred my detailed methodological questions to others at FVAP; see their reply here. (Aficionados will note the creative calculation of response rate, as well as the vote question that offers two yesses vs. one no.)
There’s also the question of overstatement of voting in polls, not just because of presumed social desirability bias, but also – and for my money, more so – because of civic-engagement bias – the fact that people who participate in polls are more civically engaged, and therefore are also more likely indeed to have voted. In any case, the FVAP reply to my questions goes so far as to predict a lower estimate for 2008, simply because they’ve tweaked their question wording to make it easier for respondents to say they didn’t vote.
The bottom line is that there’s plenty of room to debate both the size and direction of the military vote; Dempsey and Shapiro's data suggest you could drive a Humvee through the holes in the conventional wisdom on the subject. Dempsey will be reporting his full survey results in a forthcoming book on the social and political attitudes of the U.S. Army – meaning there may be more surprises yet to come.
July 22, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (25)
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When Obama left the USA, he was saluted by a number of US officers; at each one of his visits, he was mobbed by military types and even played basketball with them. You can tell by their smiles and body language that they were glad to see him. Whenever McCain visits the troops, attendance is mandatory. There are few smiles and everybody is just wanting to get the assembly over with.
BTW, remember the debate where Ron Paul revealed that most of his money was coming from the active military.
If voting is fair, Obama will win the military vote big time.
Posted by: Bob | Jul 22, 2008 11:32:07 AM
Our military seems very pleased to see Obama overseas. They are very enthusiatic!
Posted by: TV | Jul 22, 2008 11:42:02 AM
attendance at Obama Rock concerts are hardly an indication of how people vote. This man with the huge ego is filling football stadiums, yet, curiously, his polling numbers are dwindling according to Rasmussen, and McCain's has remained steady. The military loves outside visitors, especially celebrities, even old TV stars on the USO got big cheering crowds. Miss Universe and Bob Hope got cheering crowds. Doesnt' mean the military will vote for Miss Universe to be president though. The military, and God bless them all, are way to smart, way to patriotic, to vote for someone like Obama, who shows disrespect for our veterans with his associations with antiAmerican Wright and flag stomping Ayers. I am from a proud military family, and Obama shames us all.
Posted by: dblstndrd | Jul 22, 2008 11:42:57 AM
The military might want to consider whether they want to exchange tours in Iraq for tours in Afghanistan. That seems to be what the latest Obama comments indicate he would intend. He promised to end the war, not just move it to a different country.
Posted by: Charlie35 | Jul 22, 2008 11:56:38 AM
The Pretend-to-Be President is getting rave reviews for his new act as the avuncular statesman at large. The American taxpayer bought all the tickets in advance.
So it turns out Obama is actually a song and dance man for the USO? Wow. Who knew?
Posted by: len | Jul 22, 2008 12:03:25 PM
"there is still a war to be won"
"evacuation will never win a war"
"defeat is one thing,disgrace is
other"
WISTON CHURCHHILL
Posted by: VINNIE | Jul 22, 2008 12:26:45 PM
Both Obama and Ron Paul dominated active military donations. This means they want to come home. McCain wants to send them to Tehran. I think I know where the military vote will go.
Posted by: Ben Straub | Jul 22, 2008 12:27:15 PM
I have heard that the Ron Paul got the most money from donations from the military. The military tend to turn anti-government as they dont want the government taxing them and telling them how to live their lives. This is what Ron is about, the exact OPPOSITE of Obama.
Obama didnt have a huge crowd of military men around him, he had a handfull who were happy to see a famous face. I think this year McCain will win the military vote hands down. his son is in the marines, other son is in the navy, and he admires and respects the Military in general.
Posted by: Louise | Jul 22, 2008 12:51:01 PM
My family proudly will cast our votes for the one and only true patriot: Senator John McCain.
Retired SGM, USArmy.
Posted by: rey | Jul 22, 2008 1:55:21 PM
I can tell you this: Most of the active Army soldiers I serve with are voting for Obama. Not overwhelming, but a clear majority.
Posted by: Soldier | Jul 22, 2008 2:15:26 PM
Louise: 'Obama didnt have a huge crowd of military men around him, he had a handfull who were happy to see a famous face.'
Wow. Thanks for making us sound like children overwhelmed by 'a famous face'. How condescending and dismissive of our ability to think for ourselves.
Do you serve in the active army? If not, listen up- the active army is largely voting for Obama. You can listen to all the talk radio you like, but the truth is that the military is supportive of Obama.
Posted by: Soldier | Jul 22, 2008 2:17:57 PM
"there is still a war to be won"
"evacuation will never win a war"
"defeat is one thing,disgrace is
other"
WISTON CHURCHHILL
-Vinnie
Hey, Vinnie. You want to keep beating the drums of war? Never enough for you? Victory in the newspapers and history books is worthy of more people losing their sons and daughters? Tough talk from a guy who isn't facing bullets and mortars himself.
Recruiting offices are open. You want to keep fighting until we're all dead? C'mon down. You're welcome to stand WITH us and not BEHIND us anytime, buddy. Or maybe send YOUR kids. You know, just like the Bushes, Clintons, Gores, and Romneys- they didn't think the war was worth THEIR kids. Only other peoples' kids are worthy of dying for their country.
Posted by: Soldier | Jul 22, 2008 2:21:18 PM
I'm sure alot of veterans will look at the difference between McCain's and Obama's voting record regarding veteran benefits, Obama scores a B+ and McCain scores an F. Obama voted yes on the GI Bill. McCain didn't even show up to vote. Obama ordered an investigation into the Veterans Administration because they were deliberately mis-diagnosing PTSD in order to cut-costs. Actions speak louder than words and Obama's actions have proven his support for veterans. Unfortunately, McCain can't say the same.
Posted by: Liz in Texas | Jul 22, 2008 4:27:25 PM
I believe the military has spoken from their wallets. Forget the spinmeisters. Obama and Paul clearly got the most donations. Paul is now out, so Obama will the military vote - no contest.
Posted by: antenian | Jul 22, 2008 4:36:17 PM
Liz in Texas, McCain didnt vote on Webbs bill because he thought more should be added then just giving soldiers the same benefits whether they are 3 year or 8 year veterans and also allowing spouses to be able to use the money - seems like a better benefit for a solder and family. Dont bother trying to bring that up as McCain will tell you straight up why he at first apposed this bill. McCain has many veterans from different wars surrounding his campagnes so i know he is popular (i know 'soldier' might say differently as he's obviously a democrat anyway)
Posted by: Louise | Jul 22, 2008 5:55:20 PM
Great response Louise. Mc authored his own GI Bill with varying benefits especially to family members of Service members to use their benefits.
BO degrades all service members as well as do dems who gullibly believe him just to get a dem in the WH. My family and friends in Hawaii will cast our votes for our patriot, Sen McCain!!!
SGM, USA-retired
Posted by: rey | Jul 22, 2008 6:25:18 PM
the dems think military vote is gop. thats why they didn't want to count them in Fl.
Posted by: bigal | Jul 22, 2008 7:13:52 PM
Hey Bob..The pictures of Obama overseas were staged, not taken by reporters, tajen by his staff, mostly black soldiers, if you notice
Posted by: Jen | Jul 23, 2008 7:14:57 AM
Are people just half listening to Obama??? He made a comment that if we pull out of Iraq we may have to go back later???? McCain wants to make sure Iraq is secured and over so it isn't ongoing and our troops will never half to go back there. God Bless our troops and give them the wisdom and knowlege and knowlege to know what to do with it when they cast their votes this Novemeber. America security depends on them.
Posted by: patricia mo | Jul 28, 2008 2:56:21 PM
People tend to vote and side with people that have been in the same situations they have. Obama has never even been a boy scout let alone the been in the military. Leave the big decisions to people who have been there done that, like McCain.
Posted by: chris | Jul 31, 2008 11:14:42 PM
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