The Numbers
A Run at the Latest Data from ABC's Poobah of Polling, Gary Langer
Gary Langer is director of polling at ABC News, where he's covered the beat of public opinion for nearly 20 years - conducting and analyzing ABC News polls, evaluating data from other sources and setting the news division's standards for poll reporting. Langer has won two Emmy awards for ABC's reporting of public opinion polls in Iraq, and The Numbers blog was honored this year as winner of the 2008 Iowa Gallup Award for Excellent Journalism Using Polls.
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National Security, Joe Biden and WJC
August 27, 2008 2:38 PM
National security is the theme of tonight's proceedings at the Democratic National Convention; Joe Biden and Bill Clinton, the headline speakers. A fistful of relevant data points follows.
National security
-Significant shortfalls for Obama. In our latest ABC/Post poll registered voters by 61-29 percent think McCain would make a better commander-in-chief of the military and by 62-31 percent think he has better knowledge of world affairs.
-Our July poll tested the candidates individually rather than comparatively; fewer than half of registered voters said Obama would be a good commander-in-chief (a 46-49 percent split). Meanwhile they saw McCain as a good CIC by a blowout 73-24 percent.
-McCain’s better trusted to handle terrorism, by 52-38 percent; to handle "an unexpected major crisis," by 52-41 percent; and to handle international affairs, by 51-43 percent.
-The two are even in trust to handle Iraq (46-46 percent). That’s arguably better than it should be for McCain given his support for, and Obama’s opposition to, the unpopular war.
-Americans say the Iraq war was not worth fighting by 63-35 percent. It’s been essentially steady at that level for two and a half years. A majority hasn’t said the war was worth fighting since September 2004. There are sharp partisan differences, with independents aligning more with Democrats.
-Americans divide by 50-46 percent on whether or not the United States is making significant progress restoring civil order in Iraq. That 50 percent is its highest since the capture of Saddam Hussein, albeit still just half.
-The economy is the top issue by far, cited by 43 percent of reg. voters; for 14 percent it’s Iraq, while 7 percent cite national security or terrorism. At the same time, in our July poll the Iraq war was called "extremely important" in vote choices by 42 percent, the campaign against terrorism by 37 percent, putting both among the upper-tier issues.
Joe Biden
- In our latest poll (pre-selection), 13 percent of registered voters said having Biden on the ticket would make them more likely to support Obama, while about as many, 10 percent, said it would make them less likely to do so. Most by far – 75 percent – said it would make no difference in their choice.
-Nonetheless, in the never-hurts-to-try department: White Catholics (like Biden) are a true, key swing voter group – they’ve voted for the winner in each of the last eight elections. Obama trails McCain by 50-39 percent among white Catholics in our latest poll.
-Despite his long tenure in office, Biden’s not particularly well known. In a CNN poll after his pick, 38 percent expressed an overall favorable opinion of him, 25 percent unfavorable. Thirty-seven percent had no opinion.
Bill Clinton
-Bill Clinton is seen favorably by 55 percent of registered voters (comp. Obama 62, McCain 59, HRC 52), rebounding from the primary campaign, when his favorable rating dipped to 47 percent in April. His peak was 68 percent as he took office in January 1993.
-On job approval (different from personal favorability): Clinton averaged 57 percent approval over his career, in the mid-tier for postwar presidents, exactly matching Ronald Reagan and a point from LBJ. Kennedy (71 percent career average), Eisenhower (65 percent) and G.H.W. Bush (63 percent) did better.
-George W. Bush’s current approval rating is 30 percent; his career average, 51. Bush has been as low as 28 percent approval. Clinton's low was 43 percent, during the rocky start to his first term.
-Clinton left office in January 2001 with a 65 percent approval rating, the highest departing grade for any postwar president.
August 27, 2008 in 2008 General Election, National Security/Terrorism | Permalink | User Comments (15)
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I'm a white Catholic, from Cleveland, Ohio. Joe Biden on the ticket does nothing for me, despite his working-class, Catholic roots. It just lessens my respect for Joe Biden. If the Obama campaign thinks having Joe Biden on the ticket is going to sway Catholics, they don't understand Catholics very well. We value life, in the womb and outside it. No decent Catholic would vote for a man with Obama's abortion record. This man wants to see fetuses who survive abortions left to die in trash bins of hospitals. Obama may get the votes of some Catholics, but he won't get the majority. He won't even come close. He could have a stellar record and all the experience in the world, but I would still opppose him - on this issue alone. Biden says he's "personally" against abortion, but suppports abortion rights. Hypocrisy at its finest.
Posted by: Andrea | Aug 27, 2008 3:04:32 PM
Most of the American People thought we should go to war with a country that was no threat to us, harbored no terrorist and did not have a single person on a plane that hit the WTC! McCain is getting old and being a pilot who spent the whole war as a POW does not give him any leadership skills. Survival skills maybe. If he were a Brigade commander in Vietnam I might say differently as the actually led men into combat. The NVA took no prisoners! I know, I was there and I would NEVER vote for McCain!He is DEAD wrong!
Posted by: Dan W | Aug 27, 2008 3:06:45 PM
Oh Mike - this is such garbage. People who are voting based on this Ayers non-issue will find any excuse not to vote for Obama. I'll take my chances and vote for intelligence
Posted by: counting crows | Aug 27, 2008 3:08:27 PM
Andrea - one can be personally opposed to something but still respect the RIGHT of another to do as they wish. That's called minding your own business which is something we should all be better at. If you are against abortion, don't have one. If you are against abortion, vote accordingly. But you don't, absolutely and unequivocably DO NOT have the right to tell me what to do with MY body.
Posted by: nomorerepublicans | Aug 27, 2008 3:14:16 PM
This Irish - Roman Catholic will not be casting a vote for BO if Biden is on the ticket or not. Bo is going to have to hope Biden's 9,300 votes will be enough for him to win.
Posted by: rockthebleachers | Aug 27, 2008 3:16:15 PM
Nice try Andrea, but it doesn't fly.
Posted by: DAVID NH | Aug 27, 2008 3:18:10 PM
Please Focus I trust you 100% take care all my Kids .. when I have a chance I will come back pay you back I own you 1 time
Posted by: Mua V Nguyen | Aug 27, 2008 3:20:49 PM
the ayers ads, why are they being targeted for censorship? i heard the moveon sent out 96,000 bundled emails to tv stations? why hasn't obama just countered them if they are not true? we have the right to know.
Posted by: sonia trevino | Aug 27, 2008 3:28:44 PM
counting crows; i have a question regarding your post. if the ayers ads are a non issue why has obama and his staff demanded that the justice department become involved in keeping them off the air? and if it is a non-issue why has the obama camp gone to such great lengths to have them censored using threats against tv stations and advertisers via bundled email campaigns? if the ads are untrue obama needs to confront them instead of creating the impression that they are attempting to censor them. hillary supporter in new mexico who remembers what happened to john kerry who failed to respond to attack ads.
Posted by: sonia trevino | Aug 27, 2008 3:49:41 PM
ABC and their funny polls. By november when obama must have won, abc would be asking, "how come we got it wrong?"
Posted by: themanwhosawtomorrow | Aug 27, 2008 4:08:19 PM
Former PUMA here, and I'm fired up and ready to go to elect Obama! Let's unite Democrats!
Posted by: Melissa | Aug 27, 2008 4:12:30 PM
To those who would say "no" to Obama over the sanctity of life, I have this to say: do you really believe McCain is the best person to entrust the duty of helping to preserve life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness after birth? Does it make sense to talk about how terrible abortion is, but ignore factors that hamper quality of life, like lack of adequate healthcare, a growing income gap, the decline in quality education, and so on? Or how about McCain's intense desire to disrespect the sanctity of life by going to war willy nilly? Perhaps sanctity of life only matters long enough for someone to become a combat casualty.
Posted by: PalatinePup | Aug 27, 2008 7:47:07 PM
Andrea:
I don't see how you could support McCain if he picks Romney or Pawlenty.
Posted by: Mr. Coffee | Aug 27, 2008 10:16:17 PM
Catholics and the abortion issue is a curious one. This is a distinctly American fixation. In Italy, home office of the Catholic Church, home base for the Pope, etc. has one of the MOST liberal, pro-choice set of laws anywhere in the world. Their politicians don't touch this issue because the 97 percent Catholic population clearly have decided that the government needs to mind their own business and allow this to be a personal choice. Period, end of discussion. Even the Pope stays out of it, no battle, no contest. This is a fact people, the home country of your church believes in personal choice!
Posted by: Rick_VT | Aug 27, 2008 11:06:00 PM
Let's stop the NONSENSE about Joe Biden being "strong on national security." He cares more about terrorists' feelings than your family's safety. He'd rather a hidden suitcase nuke go off than torture the terrorist who admits to planting it!
He said so on MSNBC on September 26, 2007.
.
Posted by: Biden on National Security | Sep 7, 2008 3:21:25 PM
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