The Numbers
A Run at the Latest Data from ABC's Poobah of Polling, Gary Langer
Gary Langer is director of polling at ABC News, where he's covered the beat of public opinion for nearly 20 years - conducting and analyzing ABC News polls, evaluating data from other sources and setting the news division's standards for poll reporting. Langer is a two-time Emmy award winner, both for ABC's reporting of public opinion polls in Iraq.
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Obama's Laundry List
August 28, 2008 3:47 PM
Barack Obama’s chief challenges tonight are to persuade voters he’s sufficiently seasoned for the presidency, better define his theme of “change” and cement his advantages on key domestic issues, chiefly the economy.
There’s more: Obama needs also to expand his support among older, more reliable voters; maintain his lead on personal attributes such as empathy; protect himself on consistency; and capitalize on his advantages in enthusiasm and an aura of optimism.
And, as much as any other, to tie John McCain to the unpopular George W. Bush.
Not a short order for a night’s work, but potentially a crucial one. The contest has been close; 49-45 percent Obama-McCain among likely voters in our pre-convention poll. Arguably that’s closer than it should be, given the flight from the Republican Party and the broad public discontent that’s accompanied the faltering economy, the unpopular war in Iraq and dissatisfaction with the incumbent president.
Conventions can matter: Candidates usually get a 10- to 12-point convention bounce on the margin. But the size and durability of the bounce can vary, and it’s complicated this year by the back-to-back conventions (a first since 1956) with Labor Day weekend sandwiched in between.
Here are some of the data points that inform the shape of the race and the content of Obama’s laundry list. (For more see our full election poll analysis from Sunday a.m. and subsequent analyses this week.)
-Obama addresses a disgruntled public. Seventy-eight percent of Americans say the country’s seriously off on the wrong track, the most heading into a convention since 1992. Sixty-three percent say the Iraq war was not worth fighting. Consumer confidence is a point from its record low in 22 years of weekly polls. Sixty-six percent disapprove of Bush’s job performance.
-On average across our polling this year, 37 percent of Americans have identified themselves as Democrats, 26 percent as Republicans, the rest independents – a dramatic reversal from 2003, when, for the first time in a generation, the parties had reached parity (31-31). Add independents who lean toward either party, and this year it’s been an average 52-37 percent Democratic advantage.
Remember nonetheless that Republicans long have overcome Democratic advantages in partisanship to win presidential elections – a matter of differential turnout (generally higher among Republicans) and their ability to appeal to independents, the quintessential swing voters.
-Obama’s support among blacks is overwhelming but customary for Democratic presidential candidates. He’s competitive among whites – a 45-49 percent race among white likely voters, better than usual for a Democrat.
-Obama has a 2-1 lead among voters under 30, his best group by far. But while under 30s account for 22 percent of the adult population, they’ve made up only 17 percent of voters in each of the last three elections. Obama’s looking not only to boost their turnout, but to broaden his appeal to older, higher-turnout voters.
-Doing so means defining change. In our July poll 50 percent of registered voters said Obama has not done enough to define what he means by change; 46 percent said he had. Voters 50 and over especially wanted to hear more.
-Obama’s support is considerably more enthusiastic than McCain’s. Fifty-two percent of his supporters are “very enthusiastic” about his candidacy, vs. just 28 percent of McCain’s. The number of registered voters who have a “strongly favorable” overall opinion of Obama is 12 points higher than it is for McCain (37 percent vs. 25 percent, though they’re similar in overall favorability, 62 percent vs. 59 percent).
-Obama leads McCain in empathy – understanding the problems of average Americans – by 49-36 percent, and particularly in being seen as the more optimistic candidate, by 64-28 percent. Registered voters think he’d do more than McCain to stand up to lobbyists and special interest groups, by 53-32 percent, and work in a bipartisan way, 49-37 percent – all advantages for Obama to stress, against his weaknesses (described yesterday and previously) in experience, foreign affairs and readiness to serve as commander-in-chief. And McCain's inched ahead in being seen as more consistent in his positions - a flank for Obama to cover, in an already full list of opportunities and challenges alike.
August 28, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (18)
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Under the Obama regime, will government funds be used to pay MSNBC, CNN & Newsweek magazine for their work on behalf of the Obama campaign?
Posted by: Just Asking | Aug 28, 2008 4:11:58 PM
After her husband’s coronation, will First Lady Michelle finally be proud of the United States of Obama, or will she deem it a mean empire?
Posted by: Just Asking | Aug 28, 2008 4:14:07 PM
Michelle Obama left her lucrative high paying job to take a job in public service.....
Another high paying lucrative job!
Posted by: AmericanWoman | Aug 28, 2008 4:40:59 PM
There's nothing that he can say because his actions(or lack of them) speak louder than his words.
If Ben Franklin were around he'd kick him in the seat of his pants.
Posted by: Mack | Aug 28, 2008 4:45:24 PM
The pundits are in love with Obama who is a PR and media creation that has been crammed down the throat of the American people. BUT no matter how many ads have saturated the TV, radio, neswpapers, blogs and whatever other source of media PR experts have designed to seduce voters - and no matter how much the supposedly "unbiased" press has swung for Obama - there has been NO sale. I will not vote for Obama. I will vote with my conscience for the most experienced and best candidate for the highest job of the land and that isn't Obama.
Posted by: Pat | Aug 28, 2008 9:28:42 PM
Obama's speech was original nothing he said changed been consistant. I guess he will be the next commander in Chief, I like that he thanked the Clinton's again with respect he remembered them tonight again now that's respect. I wish the Obama camp had some respect for Hillary Clinton for all she has done to help Obama adn the 18 million that are voting for him well more then a few I'm sure
Posted by: Gloria | Aug 28, 2008 10:47:59 PM
If Obama and Michelle have spent most of their careers in public service, I am curious to know how they paid off their student loans and can still purchase a $4.5 million dollar home. That mortgage costs $25,000 to $35,000 per month. I would love to have that kind of public service job.
Posted by: Diana | Aug 28, 2008 10:57:06 PM
I, for the first time ever, am glad to finally hear a candidate remark that this will not be an easy road, there are a ton of things to fix, BUT was most impressive is that he GETS IT. He gets that if we don't drastically change things now, then there will be nothing left in this world for my daughter. Do you honestly think McCain is thinking about my daughter? Well, I AM !! and I will vote for who is thinking of her future. I live in Michigan and I am in the mortgage industry. Two things that don't go together well right now, but I am also a single mom and I am happy to hear that someone who is running for president actually has common sense and THAT is what has been missing in Washington for years. I was glad to hear that someone is more worried about the United States of America and what we are gong to do to fix us, than to worry about the countries who don't care about America. IT IS TIME TO FIX US !! For my daughter's future, so that maybe their generation can continue to make America the place to be. Sometimes, it is not all about politics, but about sincerity in the american people. I Hope America gives Obama the chance to change this nation.
Posted by: Kathy | Aug 28, 2008 11:11:43 PM
For the person who wants to know how Obama and Michelle paid off their student loans and can afford the home they have.
Have you never heard of the non-profit organization called Blue Cross Blue Shield. Non-profit. Would you like to ask that CEO where he lives and how much his mortgage is?
Obama has done well for himself - he lives in America - he is allowed to do well for himself, but in the same breath, he would also like to serve in public office to help millions of
Americans be able to achieve the same. George W serves in Public Service he is worth millions - are you questioning that? LIke Obama said - it is not about him, other then his integrity,he is fighting for us for a change, the americans, not the huge corporations who are making way too much in profit while we are paying for it. He wants to fight for us. get it?
Posted by: Kathy | Aug 28, 2008 11:29:13 PM
I am sick and tired of you whiners about Obama and what he cannot do. He is the breath of fresh air we need and he is a much better man and candidate than McCain. Get over your bitterness or your racism and let this country be led by someone who GETS IT...obviously you whiners DON'T!!!
Posted by: Gwen | Aug 29, 2008 12:12:20 AM
well i see it like this hes called mccaine twice he will debate twice anytime any where he says soooooooo if he does do this i might think about voting for him if he dont he will never get my vote because its just words
Posted by: david reyes | Aug 29, 2008 2:31:18 AM
lets see if he will debate like he says if its just words
Posted by: david reyes | Aug 29, 2008 2:33:32 AM
He will debate John McCain any where any time as long as John McCain does not show up and the morons who consider him do show up. This is a fellow who made an obscene gesture at Mrs. Clinton.
I am still waiting to know "What statements did he hear Rev. Wright make and what did he do about it?"
Posted by: Roger Miller | Aug 29, 2008 4:40:02 AM
Diana,
Better luck next time. The Obama's home was purchased for $1.65M NOT $4.5M as you incorrectly have been told. Senator Obama is the author of TWO...let me repeat TWO New York Times Best Seller books. Michelle Obama is the director (Harvard Law School graduate herself) of Chicago's largest hospital. So, sweetie...they have a few bucks of their own. Maybe not enough to buy 6, 7, or 8 homes...but 1 house, 1 spouse is good enough for me!!!
Posted by: BruhMan | Aug 29, 2008 10:03:58 AM
I cant believe the american public buy this garbage that Obama and McCain spout, I think its time the american people stood up and really looked at themselves and demand a qualified person, and they should be evaluated all ways mentally background both these candidates are not interested in the joe bloggs only how to better themselves financially and nothing more. The american people like all the band and fanfare get back to basics and get someone who really does want the best for this country. look beyond the party and words. words mean nothing unless the actions follow. Obama is great at speeches but he has a background that should be checked thoroughly and McCain should be in a nursing home not become president he relies on his miltary achievements, get someone who we can trust and is educated to the level we want we employ the president not the other way round thank goodness I dont have to make this choice . Americans whoever they vote for McCain or Obama is a joke and the rest of Europe can see right through these two why cant their own . Look at Bush and you elected him and some still thinks he's great what will it take for you to have back bone.
Posted by: Cathie Lee | Aug 29, 2008 2:00:33 PM
Go Dems.. go Obama.. I am so proud of you!
Posted by: Lisa | Aug 30, 2008 4:06:38 PM
Question: Is it true that both the republican picks under investigation.
Posted by: Charles | Florida | Aug 30, 2008 10:02:47 PM
George Bush will be regarded by historians as the worst President ever. I voted for him twice because if I had voted for John Kerry, Bush would have been the 2nd worst president we have ever had. Is it just me or is our system not producing qualified candidates? As I look at this year's choices I can only have the same feeling I did last time. Neither of these tickets is qualified or capable. Maybe George Bush will be our 2nd worst President after all.
Posted by: Ray Gorcyca | Sep 2, 2008 9:05:09 AM
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