The Numbers

A Run at the Latest Data from ABC's Poobah of Polling, Gary Langer

Gary Langer is director of polling at ABC News, where he's covered the beat of public opinion for nearly 20 years - conducting and analyzing ABC News polls, evaluating data from other sources and setting the news division's standards for poll reporting. Langer is a two-time Emmy award winner, both for ABC's reporting of public opinion polls in Iraq.

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The Palin Equation

August 29, 2008 3:59 PM

Part of the immediate Sarah Palin spin has been to suggest that the Alaska governor’s position on the Republican ticket is a play for former supporters of Hillary Clinton. In the data, it’s hard to see.

An easier case to make, instead, is that Palin – if she has any effect at all – may help support McCain not in the center, but in the GOP base.

We’ve looked today at Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents who preferred Clinton for the nomination and have not lined up “definitely” behind Obama – the movable ones. One challenge for McCain/Palin from the start is that these voters by definition are inclined toward the Democratic Party. But there are others:

-Eighty-four percent of Clinton movables classify themselves either as moderates or liberals. Just 14 percent are conservatives, as is Palin.

-Sixty-five percent in this group think abortion should be generally legal (compared with 54 percent of all Americans) and 34 percent say it should be legal in all cases. Thirty percent say it should be generally illegal; illegal in all cases, just 5 percent. Palin opposes legal abortion.

-While 56 percent in this group think Obama does not have enough experience to serve effectively as president (hence their compunctions about supporting him), an identical 56 percent also think McCain would continue in George W. Bush’s direction. And only 13 percent approve of Bush’s job performance.

-Clinton movables trust Obama over McCain on the economy – the single top issue by far – by 50-35 percent.

Six in 10 Clinton movables are women, but it’s awfully tough to argue that women will vote for a woman because she’s a woman. In the incumbent Republican romp of 1984, with Geraldine Ferraro alongside Walter Mondale on the Democratic ticket, women voted for Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush by 56-44 percent.

Fundamentally, as we’ve reported previously, the top of the ticket drives the vote; we see no consistent evidence of a vice presidential nominee directly influencing vote choices. That said, the selection is a piece of the puzzle that helps people understand the presidential candidates’ thinking, and to that extent a conservative opposed to legal abortion and supportive of gun rights might reassure strong conservatives and evangelicals, core GOP groups that have viewed McCain with some skepticism.

The addition of a successful young politician may also be intended to counter concerns about McCain’s vitality, but it could run the risk of exacerbating them instead. McCain himself, discussing his v.p. pick last spring, noted “the enhanced importance of this issue given my age.”

That, as well as other possible effects, remains to be seen. And in the end this surprise selection could have been intended simply to give the McCain campaign a basic ingredient it’s had in comparatively short supply: a dash of excitement.

August 29, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (120)

User Comments

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Problem is... I think what they are refering to is not the 99% of Hillary supporters but the 1% of crazies that all candidates have ...the ones that will look for any excuse to fulfill their spiteful anger. Their choice is not about reason or what is best...

it is about what makes them feel better and the fact that Palin's parts are the same as Hillary's they will say they are voting for women...even though Palin is against almost every last thing Hillary stood for in trying to protect women.

Posted by: dl | Aug 29, 2008 4:31:39 PM

Biden then quipped, "If I had your hair, I'd be president, you know what I mean? I wouldn't be screwing around with this job."

SEEMS EVERYONE KNOWS THE OBAMA/BIDEN TICKET IS UPSIDE DOWN.

Posted by: JA | Aug 29, 2008 4:34:36 PM

Since McCain has opposed women’s rights, equal pay, laws on domestic violence, right to choose, then isn’t she just a token to get elected?

I just found another interesting item on another site. She is already under investigation. Yes!! An actual investigation in her home state.

Different day, More of the same!!

Posted by: judesuper | Aug 29, 2008 4:35:53 PM

Can you see this individual as president? Obama went through 18 months of a presidential campaign, with all the tough questioning and sounded pretty knowledgeable and presidential throughout.

Some Americans think that foreign policy experience equals alpha male who wants to club everyone one the head. To me this isn't the case, and I think Obama is in fact far more into it in terms of foreign policy than McCain. But, for the guys who are for the club, I just can't see how Palin can help.

I think this is a shallow attempt to get the Clinton disgruntled, who have largely already moved to Obama after the Clintons' speeches. I suspect it may backfire, because, unfortunately, everyone who considers voting for McCain knows that he may not make it through his term.

Think of Palin as president. Are you kidding me? Michael Palin of the Monty Python would be more reassuring.

Posted by: Gianluca Pollastri | Aug 29, 2008 4:35:55 PM

Obama has 3 1/2 yers of forign policy experience in the US Senate.

Paley has zero.


Poor judgment from McCain. Just pandering to women.

Posted by: krista | Aug 29, 2008 4:36:06 PM

The VP pick provides a glimpse into a candidates' decision-making abilities and judgment. McCain has demonstrated his marginal abilities in these areas with his VP choice.
This woman would be a heart-beat away from the Presidency. He has mocked the process, and proved he cares more about getting himself elected than making sure this country would have a competent leader should something happen to him.
His new name should be McLame.

Posted by: GS | Aug 29, 2008 4:41:56 PM

hey Kistra: Obama has NO foreign policy experience at all.. wake up and get educated

Posted by: Hilly-Billy | Aug 29, 2008 4:42:58 PM

I don't see how Palin will help McCain at all. The groups that he needs to retain or win over are moderate Rebulicans, Independents, and moderate Democrats. The selection of Palin does little toward that end. Pro-choice, pro equal pay for woman voters (Hillary supporters) are not going to vote for Palin just because she's a woman -- to be honest, it's a bit insulting.

Posted by: Alissa | Aug 29, 2008 4:43:13 PM

Palin may be a woman but does not share womens` values. She is also dangerously inexperienced considering McCain`s age and his argument.


What about the economy McCain?

Posted by: krista | Aug 29, 2008 4:43:17 PM

Palin doesn't want Polar Bears to be a threatened species, because it would place restrictions on oil drilling. She says that evidence that the polar caps are melting, the threat for Polar bears, is not proven, and that global warming is not proved.


A more of the same pick on global warming for sure.

Posted by: markymark | Aug 29, 2008 4:46:17 PM

Numbers aside, this is obviously a strategic choice that has more to do with what's going on in the Democratic camp than it has with Palin's fitness for the job. Her greatest asset to the McCain camp is being a woman, not because they want a woman there, but because they need a woman to beat that black dude. Good choise, but for all the wrong reasons.

Posted by: El_Pajaro | Aug 29, 2008 4:46:26 PM

So...

Obama's not ready to be president because he's only been a senator for 4 years. Palin is ready because she's been Alaska governor for 2? Oh, and I loved how one of the qualifications she touted in her speech this morning was that she was in her local PTA. That's just great.

McCain picks an inexperienced governor that no one outside of RNC circles has ever heard of, her biggest qualification is that she has a vulva, and oh, by the way, she's under investigation in a corruption scandal.

Wow. Way to go, McCain.

Posted by: Wendy | Aug 29, 2008 4:46:30 PM

Hill billy

Yes Obama has foreign policy experience. At least 3 1/2 years in the US senate. Did you think they just sit in the Senate house for nothing other than discussing high profile foreign policy?

Palin has zero. And McCain has flip flopped on the issue of experience. Palin is anti womens rights.

Posted by: keith | Aug 29, 2008 4:48:39 PM

PALIN-GOVERNOR OF ALASKA=EXECUTIVE
EXPERIENCE.........
McCAIN=SENATOR-WAR HERO......

McCAIN/PALIN '08

COUNTRY FIRST.......

AMERICANS NEVER SURRENDER.....

GOD BLESS AMERICA......

Posted by: NICHOLAS | Aug 29, 2008 4:51:28 PM

I used to think Obama had limited experience but after McCain showing poor judgment on hisw VP pick I see a superior judgment in Obama.

Posted by: keith | Aug 29, 2008 4:53:58 PM

For anyone to think it's just pandering to women by choosing Palin, suggests to me that they do not have a clue. McCain, while I don't agree with everything he has done, by choosing Palin, shows he is still a maverick. The safe choice would have been to choose Romney and attack Obama on his lack of experience. Romney would have been like any other DC insider. But, she is "outside the box". That to me is change.
And Krista---since when does supporting abortion equal "women's values"? That is media talk because there are large number of women in this country who don't support abortion but they don't get heard like the LOUD/money-backed voices that agree with you. Women's values cannot be defined by any single topic because what it is important to a woman on the Navajo reservation in Arizona is vastly different than the young professional woman in New York City or the rich, white retiree in Florida. Where they probably do agree though, is that abortion is NOT their main concern. So, please, think "outside the box" of 'women's values'.

Posted by: sunny | Aug 29, 2008 4:58:42 PM

The Obama cultists and Media are hard at work all over the web calling Palin the most disgusting, sexist, vile names you can imagine. They’re saying she looks like a porn star.. are you freaking kidding me? I am ashamed to have ever belonged to such a hateful party. The democratic party has officially been declared dead today! I will support this McCain/Palin ticket wholeheartedly and know I’m doing it for Hillary and every woman out there who’s been mistreated and demonized unfairly. Bty, I am a 35 year old male, not a female. I just feel the way Hillary, who happened to be the most qualified democratic candidate, was treated by that idiot and the DNC was unforgivable.

Posted by: Dem4McCain-Palin | Aug 29, 2008 4:59:32 PM

I think Sarah Palin is a wonderful pick for vice President. She has the knowledge and experience to help attain John McCain goal of achieving energy independence for the United States. She also demonstrates that long-term Democratic leadership hostility and policies toward United States owned energy companies have caused our current energy crisis. Her husband works for British Petroleum and instead should be working for the former American owned Arco Oil Company. Arco Oil Company developed and explored the Alaska North Slope and formerly owned eighty percent of our proven Alaskan reserves. With its substantial oil reserves Arco Oil Company should have bought British Petroleum instead British Petroleum bought out and took over Arco Oil Company during the second Bill Clinton administration.
Governor Sarah Palin and Senator John McCain will prove that the Democratic leadership is dead wrong on the energy issue. The average American voter knows that when they need to fill up their gas tank they will have to go to the nearest Fina station and not a FEMA branch station. The average American voter knows that they can not count on some improbable Democrat sponsored government alternative fuel initiative to guarantee that they will always have gas in their gas tank in the future.

Posted by: politicsandtraditions | Aug 29, 2008 5:09:04 PM

Palin may be short on experience, but she is a gutsy reformer. She has an excellent record of taking on the "good ol' boy network" and even corrupt politicians in her own party. She even rejected the embarrassing "bridge to nowhere" project.

I really like Palin and she will excite the conservative base. She's got my vote for sure!

Posted by: SteveG | Aug 29, 2008 5:21:55 PM

Obama has been campaigning for the last two years and has done nothing in Congress which is consistent with his previous employment in the Illinois legislature and his joke of an occupation as a 'community worker'. The only talent this empty suit has is making speeches on Sunday. If he is elected, get ready to lose your job and get in line for soup. A economic depression will be the result. Folks, his numbers are bogus and he is lying to get elected just like he lied about not taking private contributions. You can't get 800 billion dollars in programs from the top 5% income earners and redistribute to the bottom 50% who pay less than 3% of all taxes.

Posted by: Aroleflin | Aug 29, 2008 5:28:12 PM

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