The Numbers
A Run at the Latest Data from ABC's Poobah of Polling, Gary Langer
Gary Langer is director of polling at ABC News, where he's covered the beat of public opinion for nearly 20 years - conducting and analyzing ABC News polls, evaluating data from other sources and setting the news division's standards for poll reporting. Langer has won two Emmy awards for ABC's reporting of public opinion polls in Iraq, and The Numbers blog was honored this year as winner of the 2008 Iowa Gallup Award for Excellent Journalism Using Polls.
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The Palin Equation
August 29, 2008 3:59 PM
Part of the immediate Sarah Palin spin has been to suggest that the Alaska governor’s position on the Republican ticket is a play for former supporters of Hillary Clinton. In the data, it’s hard to see.
An easier case to make, instead, is that Palin – if she has any effect at all – may help support McCain not in the center, but in the GOP base.
We’ve looked today at Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents who preferred Clinton for the nomination and have not lined up “definitely” behind Obama – the movable ones. One challenge for McCain/Palin from the start is that these voters by definition are inclined toward the Democratic Party. But there are others:
-Eighty-four percent of Clinton movables classify themselves either as moderates or liberals. Just 14 percent are conservatives, as is Palin.
-Sixty-five percent in this group think abortion should be generally legal (compared with 54 percent of all Americans) and 34 percent say it should be legal in all cases. Thirty percent say it should be generally illegal; illegal in all cases, just 5 percent. Palin opposes legal abortion.
-While 56 percent in this group think Obama does not have enough experience to serve effectively as president (hence their compunctions about supporting him), an identical 56 percent also think McCain would continue in George W. Bush’s direction. And only 13 percent approve of Bush’s job performance.
-Clinton movables trust Obama over McCain on the economy – the single top issue by far – by 50-35 percent.
Six in 10 Clinton movables are women, but it’s awfully tough to argue that women will vote for a woman because she’s a woman. In the incumbent Republican romp of 1984, with Geraldine Ferraro alongside Walter Mondale on the Democratic ticket, women voted for Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush by 56-44 percent.
Fundamentally, as we’ve reported previously, the top of the ticket drives the vote; we see no consistent evidence of a vice presidential nominee directly influencing vote choices. That said, the selection is a piece of the puzzle that helps people understand the presidential candidates’ thinking, and to that extent a conservative opposed to legal abortion and supportive of gun rights might reassure strong conservatives and evangelicals, core GOP groups that have viewed McCain with some skepticism.
The addition of a successful young politician may also be intended to counter concerns about McCain’s vitality, but it could run the risk of exacerbating them instead. McCain himself, discussing his v.p. pick last spring, noted “the enhanced importance of this issue given my age.”
That, as well as other possible effects, remains to be seen. And in the end this surprise selection could have been intended simply to give the McCain campaign a basic ingredient it’s had in comparatively short supply: a dash of excitement.
August 29, 2008 in 2008 General Election | Permalink | User Comments (120)
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Palin is Cheney in a beehive
a)Palin governor of Alaska/Cheney executive at Halliburton
b)Alaska untapped regions for oil drilling/Iraq raided for oil interest
c)Palin is good with a gun/Cheney was good with a gun.
d)Cheney convinced Bush that Iraq had WMD/Can Palin convince McCain that polar bears have WMD?
Eight more years of oil burning and the shores of northern Alaska will be a vacation spot.
McCain/Palin = Bush/Cheney
McCain/Palin = WonMoreDisaster
Posted by: Kazeki | Aug 29, 2008 5:39:35 PM
lets not forget, she has been a governor for 2 years, and already has a investigation going on about here abuse of power, and position.
Lets also not forget that alaska is the 47th most populated state in our country. and her so called experience is rather mute.
lets look at her current history of being in some time of office held postion.
PTA-3+years
Mayor-1 year
governor 2 years.
she doesnt being any experience. Zero!
if McCain wins the Election. And later dies. She will become president, and that scares the hell out of me.
was going to vote mccain. but heck no not now!
Posted by: DavidC | Aug 29, 2008 5:46:43 PM
Its amazing the bashing against Palin...
Obama has NO executive experience, no experience working directly with the military (Palin is Commander and Chief of the National Guard - which commands some of the best units in our military based in Alaska), no real record of reform of any kind, no real voting record that amounts to anything (Hillary Clinton pointed out that most Obama votes in his "years" in service have been present - not yes or no on critical votes), and certainly no experience taking on corruption in his own party.
Obama is a NOOB.....and the dems are calling her the one with no experience????!??? HUHHHH???
Posted by: ellis | Aug 29, 2008 5:49:14 PM
I am happy a women is on the ticket. But I'm scared as hell that she doesn't seem to have any of the experience that would qualify her to become president should the 72-year old McCain get sick or die.
She's a big pal of big oil and big business. So that troubles me too.
And this refusal to turn over emails related to an on-going scandal sounds too much like the Bush Administration.
I need to rethink my support for McCain.
Posted by: rick | Aug 29, 2008 5:50:44 PM
McSame just handed the election to Sen. Barack Obama on a silver platter!!! The man must have lost his mind to make this choice. Obama/Biden 2008!!!
Posted by: caliguy55 | Aug 29, 2008 5:51:54 PM
Nothing to back up claim that "Since McCain has opposed women’s rights, equal pay, laws on domestic violence, right to choose, then isn’t she just a token to get elected?"
I only see blogs that support this statement, not fact.
And Obama has 3 1/2 years of foreign policy????
Posted by: JoJo | Aug 29, 2008 5:52:17 PM
Who says she has no foreign policy experience? Her state is on the border with Russia---3 miles away at the closest point. She is on the front lines! She has to get up every morning and stare down Putin while Obama and Biden are in line getting their bagels at the Senate cafateria!
Posted by: Jason | Aug 29, 2008 5:53:59 PM
Again, Palin has MORE experience than Obama to be President.
She has been a REAL executive in office, she has run a government, at the city level and state level. She has tacked corruption head on in her own party, fought against big oil companies, and cut pork spending. On top of all of this, she has a family and children. She commands the Alaskan National Guard, which contains some of the best units in our country - because they are stationed strategically for our defense in Alaska.
This "fear" or worry that she isnt ready is silly... you should be MORE afraid of Obama - who has NO record of any of the things that I have mentioned. Heck, as many democratic senators have mentioned (errr.. initials HRC and JB) - he has a horrible record voting... in fact he DOESNT vote....
Obama Biden is a scary ticket... lets just cut Obama off and let Biden run... as a 30 year insider of Washington, at least HE has done something..
Posted by: ellis | Aug 29, 2008 5:58:23 PM
Interesting. The Conservative base is ecstatic with McCain's choice in Sara Palin. Why is it that the opposition is against his choice? Fear. McCain/Palin are destined to prevail in November. Liberals whine, whine, whine while Conservatives grind-in and get the work done and know our destiny is in our own hands, not government, as Liberals like to.. oh yeah... whine whine whine about.
Posted by: Kari | Aug 29, 2008 6:05:47 PM
I really think it was a good choice for Mr. McCain and his has my vote, sorry democrats I was once one of you, but thru this process I think that John McCain is the way to go. Obama his speeches are great but there is no substances for me, I just can not connect with his ideals, and I don't trust him at all.
Posted by: Retha Jay | Aug 29, 2008 6:06:49 PM
sorry to say this, i was up in alaska, anyone in the military is pretty darn good. but to focalize the national guard in that light, and since i retired last year from the national guard in alaska. we just do our jobs, and i wouldnt say we are some of the best, nuff said, the base commander up here has more pull then she ever could. and her being governor is a nice accomplishment, but for the 47th ranked state on population, i seriously doubt there were much issues up there besides her ongoing case of her abuse of power. also enough said!
Posted by: Moa | Aug 29, 2008 6:17:36 PM
Obama was a STATE senator NOT a US senator and has NO foreign policy exp.
Know the facts! Why do you think he made a futile attemp to travel to the middle east??
The talk is already that Palin has no foreign policy, she has just as much as Obama diff. is she is on ticket as VP not as Pres. McCain has plenty of foreign policy exp. and didn't need to get a VP to help him out. She is a tough, strong women and is for women - for not all women think abortion is good for women. She is an excellent pick and will make a great first women VP. As for the investigation, which as no grounds, What is Palin response (paraphrased) - bring it on ! - She welcomes it and says "Hold me accountable" So this election -Get in the know and let's get it on, it's time for the punches and the swings, last one standing wins.
Nov. 4th - Go vote 08
Posted by: vote08 | Aug 29, 2008 6:21:12 PM
McCain has just stamped a seal of approval for the Obama presidency! Thank you for being so conscientious and kindly stepping away from leading the country into a deeper hole.
Your love for the country is well appreciated, Sen. McCain!
Yes, you are absolutely right! We do need a person like Sen. Obama to lead the country and bring back the American prosperity and peace to the world!
Posted by: GoneIsMcCainThankGod | Aug 29, 2008 6:24:10 PM
Congress tried to buy Palin by offering her funds to build a "bridge to nowhere" and she told them to shove it! Now that is the type of politician I like! Go Sarah!! ex DEM!!
Posted by: mfmros | Aug 29, 2008 6:24:37 PM
I think Palin as VP shows McCain is still a maverick......was it the right choice? NO! Won't be voting Republican this time around.
Posted by: JesseDaBody | Aug 29, 2008 6:53:09 PM
Palin - a Stellar Pick! She has More Experience than Obama! Since the DNC and Obama threw Hillary, Michigan and Florida under the bus, I can't vote for Hillary. Well, there is more than 1 way to skin a goose, so Let's have John the Maverick and Sara the Barracuda get in the WhiteHouse and Clean House! We'll get our change that way ,with out a "G D America" questionable politation being staged and shoved down our throats. McCain/Palin '08'
Posted by: John McCain for President | Aug 29, 2008 8:10:30 PM
I'm still trying to figure this one out...
Palin is a champion for ethics in government, but she is currently under an active ethics investigation?
McCain reportedly defies his party position and believes in the threat of global warming, but picks Palin, who as noted above, is fighting placing polar bears on the endangered species list and doesn't believe the data on global warming?
Do the majority of Americans REALLY want a vice president who during her campaign two years ago advocated for teaching of creationism in public schools?
Seriously? Am I missing something here?
Posted by: Jeremy Slater | Aug 29, 2008 8:11:33 PM
"Cheney was good with a gun."
Now, wait a minute, Kazeki! Let's remember that Cheney was the one that shot his friend on the ... ahem ... hunting trip.
However, the analogy may hold - I predict Palin will shoot down McCain's campaign in a matter of weeks.
My guess is that after reconsideration, McCain's gang will try to downplay Palin. On the bumper sticker they'll probably display her name in red against a dark blue background, rendering it illegible. (This is what Bush One did with Quayle during his reelection bid.)
Posted by: pianofan | Aug 29, 2008 8:12:55 PM
Umm..Jeremy Slater..I'm guessing that you want the right to be tolerant & accepting of gay marriage, women's "rights, etc. Is that correct? The right is continually bashed for not being open minded & tolerant and yet I read your statement about teaching creationism in school....which doesn't strike me as very tolerant & accepting. Do we want kids to have only information we "believe" in or do we want them to get both sides of the story (on any issue) and then form their own opinion? Isn't that what school is for?
Posted by: Sunny | Aug 29, 2008 8:33:56 PM
She's crooked and will fit nicely with Mcshame and the GOP..
Bush 3 term gauranteed!!
Posted by: Megan | Aug 29, 2008 8:34:37 PM
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