The Numbers
A Run at the Latest Data from ABC's Poobah of Polling, Gary Langer
Gary Langer is director of polling at ABC News, where he's covered the beat of public opinion for nearly 20 years - conducting and analyzing ABC News polls, evaluating data from other sources and setting the news division's standards for poll reporting. Langer is a two-time Emmy award winner, both for ABC's reporting of public opinion polls in Iraq.
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The Veteran Vote
August 18, 2008 10:41 AM
The presidential candidates’ visits to the Veterans of Foreign Wars convention in Orlando today and tomorrow raise the question of just what the “veteran vote” looks like – including to what extent being a veteran actually informs vote preferences.
Most voter groups exist via political or religious affinity or demographic characteristics – independents, blacks, Catholics, married women. With the exception of career officers, veterans seem to have less of a common denominator, aside from the fact of their service.
And for most, that service was long-ago. Among registered voters, veterans on average are 58 years old, 11 years older than non-veterans. Veterans are twice as likely to be senior citizens – 35 percent, compared with 17 percent of non-veterans. And just 2 percent of veterans are under 30, compared with 17 percent of non-vets.
Veterans, who account for 12 percent of registered voters overall, stand out in other ways. Ninety-one percent are men. Eighty-four percent are white (compared with 76 percent of non-veterans). Veterans are 12 points more likely than other adults to describe themselves as conservatives, 9 points less apt to be liberals, 5 points more likely to be Republicans and a substantial 13 points less apt to be Democrats.
If that sounds like a John McCain group, it is: Veterans favored McCain over Barack Obama in our last poll by 58-29 percent, one of McCain’s best groups.
Eighty-three percent of veterans also said McCain would be a good commander-in-chief (11 points more than among non-veterans), while just 38 percent said the same about Obama. And veterans trust McCain over Obama to handle the Iraq war by 59-30 percent.
That doesn’t mean their overall preference is based disproportionately on a military assessment. Veterans also broadly trust McCain over Obama to handle the economy, by 54-35 percent. They’re more apt than other adults to believe the United States is making significant progress in Iraq, but still a minority, 41 percent, say the war was worth fighting. And veterans are no more apt than others to accept McCain’s argument that victory in Iraq is essential for success in the broader war on terrorism; just 35 percent agree.
Looking back to one of our polls earlier this year, veterans haven’t looked different from other adults in their issue priorities, with the economy – rather than terrorism or the Iraq war – at the head of the list. (On another issue, among registered voters, 77 percent of veterans support the military’s 15-year-old don’t-ask-don’t-tell policy on service by homosexuals. Fifty-three percent also support service by gays who do disclose their sexual orientation, 28 points below its support among non-veterans. See that full report here.)
Veteran status hasn’t been asked in a national exit poll since 1992, when 18 percent of voters said they were veterans; they broke 41-37-22 percent among Bill Clinton, George H.W. Bush and Ross Perot, very similar to the overall vote, 43-38-19 percent. (Bush was a celebrated World War II veteran, while Clinton had no military service.)
At the end of the day, it’s not entirely clear whether being a veteran independently predicts vote preference. When we run a regression analysis to predict vote, holding other factors constant (age, race, sex, education, partisanship and ideology), being a veteran is independently significant in our July poll, but not powerfully so; and it was not significant in a poll we did last spring. Whether a “veterans vote” truly exists, then, remains to be seen. But in the meantime there’s surely nothing to lose in the candidates’ traveling to Orlando and reaching for it.
(This note looks at veterans in the civilian population. For a rundown on active-duty military, see this blog item from a few weeks ago.)
August 18, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (30)
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This vet is for Obama all the way.
Posted by: disabledOIFvet | Aug 18, 2008 11:15:00 AM
The vets are obamas 100 percent, our brave men and woman know mccain could care less HIS VETERNS VOTING RECORD PROVES IT its in black and white mccain only wants to use them for his senseless wars he will start but when it comes to supporting them caring for them MCCAIN S---KS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Posted by: angie | Aug 18, 2008 11:22:21 AM
McCain always votes against the GI bill claiming it is ``too generous``.
Obama has always supported this bill. This shows how much Obama cares for them rather than how McCain only needs them for his Whitehouse run.
Posted by: Krista | Aug 18, 2008 11:51:14 AM
No way does McCain get this veteran's vote. McCain voted against me, I'll return the favor in Nov.
Posted by: Sam | Aug 18, 2008 12:02:44 PM
Huh...McCain has no problem voting money for the Iraq black hole. However, he turns his back on those that served in that hades hole.
Posted by: Sam | Aug 18, 2008 12:06:11 PM
at least obama voted for you vets to have a better GI bill
good thing your voting for mccain
Posted by: bhrandon | Aug 18, 2008 12:27:52 PM
McCain has a very poor record when it comes to supporting the troops in the senate. The record speaks for itself!
Posted by: nathan | Aug 18, 2008 1:04:13 PM
You never know. McCain could always make up some more touching POW stories to win them over
Posted by: TallyGirl, FL | Aug 18, 2008 5:22:42 PM
My family will vote for the patriot McCain. It is absolutely clear that he loves America and has 2 sons serving in the Navy and Marines currently.
McCain is the ultimate veteran whatever you may think. My family resides in Hawaii and all will vote R.
SGM USA (retired)
Posted by: rey | Aug 18, 2008 6:49:30 PM
McCain has the Vets full support
Posted by: NOBAMA NO WAY | Aug 18, 2008 7:04:40 PM
My husband, a Navy flight instructor, honors Senator McCain’s service but questions his head work. He’s voting for Obama.
Posted by: CaliRules | Aug 18, 2008 7:49:58 PM
Eighty-three percent of veterans also said McCain would be a good commander-in-chief (11 points more than among non-veterans), while just 38 percent said the same about Obama. SPEAKS FOR ITSELF
Posted by: NOBAMA NO WAY | Aug 18, 2008 8:09:17 PM
We are a military family and we are backing McCain. Even my father-in-law, who is a yellow-dog democrat, never voted Republican in his life, is voting for McCain. Obama is just too inexperienced and radical for this family.
Posted by: S Adams | Aug 18, 2008 10:55:49 PM
This vet doesn't want to see any more wounded or disabled vets so I'm voting Obama.
Posted by: steve9337 | Aug 19, 2008 12:03:17 AM
angie 100 % Wow, the North Koreans say the same thing about Kim Jong-il.
Posted by: mhm | Aug 19, 2008 1:42:47 AM
McCain loves to use his military record when convienent but not in practice of helping veterans in the senate. He has been a dissapointment for years!!!
Posted by: Ray Fisher | Aug 19, 2008 7:15:36 AM
Obama is an empty suit. He can't stand up to the Clinton.
The only good thing about Obama is a good size of this nation may decide to leave the union and Obama will try to figure which of the 57 states have left.
Posted by: Reagan | Aug 19, 2008 8:11:33 AM
Any Vet with half a brain would not vote for Obama. He and his wife have made it clear by words and there friends they hate America untill now.
Posted by: Ron | Aug 19, 2008 8:54:24 AM
The facts that McCain votes against Veterans on a consistant basis and he surrounds himself with conservative chickenhawks tells me he's not getting my vote.
Posted by: Saddlesablazing | Aug 19, 2008 9:22:08 AM
How your buddy Phil Gramm doing Johnny boy is he looking after your wifes money in his Swiss Bank as well as your and his???????? Yea you can trust McCain to look out for his interests before voting against the next veterans bill.
Posted by: texmexborderjumper | Aug 19, 2008 9:27:06 AM
I, a disabled veteran, will be voting for John McCain. Mr. McCain has demonstrated to me that he truly loves, honors, and is proud of this nation. He has shown that he truly understands what is necessary to win a war and will take those actions, instead of putting our tail between our legs and running as some others would have us do. John McCain has further shown that, while he cares deeply for the veterans of this nation, he is unwilling to support policies which directly impair the ability of our men and women in uniform to safely achieve the objectives we set out for them. McCain, with his long years of experience and extremely admirable good judgment is a man I would be proud to follow into battle and fight alongside of.
MJB, Maj. USMC, Ret.
Posted by: MJB | Aug 19, 2008 10:03:06 AM
For those of you deceived by the so-called "improvement" in the GI Bill, consider the consequences of it. With the government offering any and every veteran a collegiate education, regardless of term of service, there will be a very large incentive for military members to leave after serving only a single contract. That directly means that those who are in our military will ultimately be boots with no experience and little to no training. Soldiers and Marines who have no experience tend to end up dead.
Obama's policy does not support our veterans nearly as much as it harms our military.
John McCain proposed the alternative of offering varying levels of collegiate support to military veterans in direct accordance to how long they had served. This would have not only given the veterans a nice additional benefit, but would also have promoted the ideal of reenlistment so that our military consists of experienced and seasoned Soldiers and Marines.
Obama's plan is one of disaster. McCain's is one of success.
Only one of them is worthy to be the Commander in Chief.
Posted by: MJB | Aug 19, 2008 10:12:10 AM
...and in response to the article...
You question what it is that all veterans have in common - other than the obvious of having been in the military. It is not demographics that define those of us who have served, but our ideology, beliefs, and values.
Every man and woman who has donned the uniform and truly served has done so because of our love for this country, our dedication to the ideals of freedom and democracy, and our willingness to put ourselves in harms way in order to protect those who cannot or will not protect themselves.
To put this into a perspective that most can understand, consider what you would do to keep your children safe from harm. In the same way that you love them and would give anything to protect them, we love you.
Posted by: MJB | Aug 19, 2008 10:24:03 AM
Follow the money. Obama and Ron Paul hav both recieved more money than Mr. McCain, and Paul has been out of the running for months now. This pretty much tells me the way they will vote. People speak with their wallets.
Posted by: Huh | Aug 19, 2008 11:17:17 AM
I doubt very much that Obama will get a lot of the veterans vote. And anybody who actually reads the reason that McCain rejects the GI bill will know that he is caring for our military, caring that the good people stay and command the troops on the ground. it takes a lot of time and money to train a GI and i think more of an incentive (as John McCain wanted) was to allow family to use the GI bill, and to make benefits go up as your time in service goes up. its a no brainer, someone who knows military and knows what is needed now.
Posted by: Louise | Aug 19, 2008 12:55:01 PM
The currently enlisted men and women are donating money to the Obama campaign over McCain 6 to 1. That says a lot about who our military wants to be the leader of the free world.
Posted by: dan | Aug 19, 2008 2:42:45 PM
Well, Dan... It doesn't say a lot about who our military wants to be the leader of the free world. Any fool can throw good money down a wishing well, for Obama. A thinking man, like myself, will keep my money in my pocket... and cast a VOTE for John McCain! I believe that most of our military, active and retired, are not only BRAVE PATRIOTS, but are also THINKING men and women, who will VOTE... McCAIN! So... save your money, spread the word, and vote McCAIN.
Posted by: KSH | Aug 19, 2008 4:51:08 PM
Dan, the story about Obama getting more money from military then McCain said that about 850 people had donated to Obama's campaign, which was a lot more then mccains. this doesnt mean ANYTHING. it means that 850 liberal officers (who have the money to donate to campaigns) have donated. i bet the rest of the millions in the military are not able to donate even $25 to a campaign, so dont go believing that there's somethng to gain from this story for Obama.
Posted by: Louise | Aug 19, 2008 5:10:58 PM
to answer this would be above my paygrade!!!! lol,
Posted by: Michael | Aug 19, 2008 9:55:17 PM
A a vietnam veteran I am for Barack Obama.
Posted by: con me not | Aug 27, 2008 7:12:58 PM
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