The Numbers
A Run at the Latest Data from ABC's Poobah of Polling, Gary Langer
Gary Langer is director of polling at ABC News, where he's covered the beat of public opinion for nearly 20 years - conducting and analyzing ABC News polls, evaluating data from other sources and setting the news division's standards for poll reporting. Langer has won two Emmy awards for ABC's reporting of public opinion polls in Iraq, and The Numbers blog was honored this year as winner of the 2008 Iowa Gallup Award for Excellent Journalism Using Polls.
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Economic Discontent: The Brass Ring
September 15, 2008 10:52 AM
Today’s turmoil on Wall Street underscores the brass ring of the presidential election – the American public’s deep economic discontent. The candidate who seizes it very likely wins.
Yet both are still grasping.
The reasons cut to their broader pros and cons. Barack Obama leads on empathy, including the economic sort; 74 percent of Americans in our latest ABC/Post poll say he understands the economic difficulties people are having, compared with 53 percent who think John McCain gets it.
But 53 percent still is a majority, if a smaller one, and McCain has other attractions – such as his 17-point lead over Obama in trust to handle “an unexpected major crisis.” That surely seems to describe what the financial markets are facing today.
Balance these out and the two are rated very closely in overall trust to handle the economy – 47 percent pick Obama, 42 percent McCain, a scant 5-point Obama edge. That’s contracted from an 11-point Obama advantage before the conventions and a 17-point Obama lead on the economy in mid-July – a trend in McCain’s favor.
McCain’s pushback on “change” has helped. The shine Americans take to the notion of change depends more than anything on economic change – a break from $4 gas, falling home prices, weak income growth, higher unemployment, a flat job market and, now, the increasing specter of instability and failures in leading financial institutions. Change is the demand – but who’s best to deliver it? McCain with his greater experience overall, or Obama with his advantage in seeming to understand the problems at the kitchen table?
Addressing it is tricky for the candidates, because – contrary to conventional wisdom – economic concerns are fueled by more than self-interest. Sixty-five percent of registered voters actually feel financially secure, though many fewer, 20 percent, feel “very” secure (which it seems fair to see as an essential element of the American dream). In our weekly consumer confidence poll just 45 percent say their own finances are good, 3 points from the record low in 22 years of data. But ratings of the buying climate and the national economy overall are much lower still – just 21 and 14 percent positive, respectively.
That means Americans look not just at how they’re doing personally, but even more at how the country’s doing. And they don’t like what they see; at -47 on its +100 to -100 scale, our Consumer Comfort Index is 4 points from the record low it reached in late May. Addressing these concerns politically means more than connecting with self-interest, but with perceived national needs and interests as well.
In the election, nothing matters more. When we ask registered voters the single most important issue in their choice for president, four in 10 say it’s the economy – a high level of agreement on an open-ended question. It’s been steadily that high since February, after soaring from 11 percent last September. Economic concerns are the main reason more than three-quarters say the country’s seriously off on the wrong track – as many as said so at this time in 1992, when the issue cost George H.W. Bush a second term.
But the equation this time is not so simple. Economic discontent usually damages, above all, the incumbent president – fire the manager, if you will. (Ask George W. Bush how he’s doing.) This year, without an incumbent in the race, the economic question becomes more evaluative: Who gets it, and who can fix it?
If the candidates battle to a standstill, other issues and attributes decide their contest. But if either breaks out on the economy, the election, very likely, breaks open.
September 15, 2008 in 2008 General Election, Economy | Permalink | User Comments (56)
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I keep asking, where can I participate in these polls? Until the time that I can see the true source of these ephemeral numbers is the actual American public, I will give them no credibility.
Posted by: iamwomaninMI | Sep 15, 2008 11:19:08 AM
While Bush is certainly a catalyst for a lot of these problems, it is not just him or the government. These firms have made bad decisions, as have many of us who have overspent and looked at finances in a "pollyanna best-case" way (and I am guilty of that, as well). Hopefully, we will be able to avert a depression - I think of my parents who live off the interest from their investments and whom have been hit hard by this - but in any event, we need to pull together and stop this partisan fighting. The article says this could hurt McCain, but I believe this turn of events only more strongly illustrate how much we need someone of McCain's experience at reaching across the aisle and his strength of character. As much as we all want and need change, we don't need to place our futures - and, more importantly, our children's futures - in the hands of a man (Obama) who has only shown that he will do anything and step over anyone to get elected. We need McCain and Palin to help steer our country through these tough economic times.
Posted by: traci | Sep 15, 2008 11:21:38 AM
McCain WINS - that will be the end to this nightmare campaign. Obama is just not qualified - If Obama was in touch with America he would have selected Hilary like her or not. The American people in large numbers wanted her as President.
Obama has no chance at all - never had -the American people are not stupid like Hollywood and the left who only want someone who says what they want to hear.
Qualified are not. Again Not -
The big question is will the Democrats wake up and make the changes our country needs are will they block everything that brings change?
My guess is that they will continue to do nothing with losers like ried and palosi who promote nothing but hate. They are so un-American or just stupid.
McCain will be our Truman
Posted by: a citizen | Sep 15, 2008 11:24:25 AM
if we elect mccain the economy will continue to slide further in the ditch buhs put us in. we have to stop giveing to the rich so they can send jobs overseas and manage companies bad so we the workingclass have to bail them out. obama has a fantastic tax plan it will make the rich pay there fair share and lower how much us poor working class ahve to pay. also obama will help get insurance for 47,000,000 that dont have it and wont get it under mccain.
Posted by: tom | Sep 15, 2008 11:34:44 AM
Good job a citizen! Reid and Pelosi are both. They are un-American as well as stupid. Just look at the gas situation this week end, and those two morans don't want to pump. Can't wait till November!!
Posted by: bombem | Sep 15, 2008 11:37:47 AM
MCSAME signed a document in Viet Nam agreeing that his is a war criminal. He even said he was broken by the guards who were merely detaining him. He could have left but he was didn't want to fight any more so sat the war out. He cannot be trusted as commander-in-chief. He is also deep in the pockets of lobbyists. He is merely a puppet. He has been on The Hill for a quarter of a century. He is the problem and needs to be voted out of office immediately.
Posted by: W | Sep 15, 2008 11:42:23 AM
What do you expect, Cheney said "deficits don't matter" now look at the economy. If your currency is worthless so are your companies, real estate etc...soon Saudi and China will own the US.
Posted by: Hege! | Sep 15, 2008 11:43:28 AM
One of the first things Governor Sarah Palin did upon taking office was to have a TANNING BED installed in the Governor's Mansion for her use.
“The governor did have a tanning bed put in the Governor’s Mansion,” Roger Wetherell, chief communications officer of Alaska’s Department of Transportation and Public Facilities, confirmed to this newspaper. “It was done shortly after she took office [in early 2007] and moved into the mansion.”
Good to know where Sarah Palin's priorities are. I wonder where that money for the tanning bed came from... They cost between $10,000 - $35,000.
See the full story on Narco.
Posted by: Narco News | Sep 15, 2008 11:43:31 AM
McCain has offered no solutions only criticisms and distortions of Senator Obama's ideas. I look forward to the debates mostly so we can focus again on the issues, which are of huge importance in this election.
I hope people watch the debates to decide whether they agree with policies of the candidates. Voting from information spread by the forwarded e-mails of well meaning relatives is not in our best interest as a country.
Posted by: Stacey | Sep 15, 2008 11:44:24 AM
come on people the drill baby drill thing is just a ploy it will not lower gas prices it will only make the oil companies alot of money. dont be sheep dont follow. lead and stand up for teh working class and the poor. vote all democrat if you care for america if you dont care for america vote republican.
Posted by: tom | Sep 15, 2008 11:44:51 AM
Guys, the fact is tax-cuts will increase deficit and dollar value will decrease significantly. Note India increased tax in their budget, and that is the reason their economy is very strong, so does China. Bush Tax cut policy lead to this economic diaster.
McCain wants to follow the same tax cut policy. While McCain want their men and women in Uniform to do ultimate sacrifice of giving life, he is not willing for big oil companies to give a meagre increase of taxes. Tax-cut is a very dangerous thing, but very tempting for people to fall into this populistic appeal. If Americans use their minimum 101 Economics, they will find Obama alone has sound economic policy. If you still don't believe, please consult the biggest CEOs personally without a TV interview.
Posted by: Sri | Sep 15, 2008 11:45:48 AM
It would be nice if SOMEBODY could say specifically how McCain's economic policy would differ from that of George W. Bush. We have had eight years of Bush/Republican economic policies and can see the results.
When Bush took office, he inherited a huge surplus from Clinton. We are now have a trillion dollar deficit. I can remember when Republicans were fiscally conservative. That is no longer the case.
What--EXACTLY--would McCain do to put the nation and its citizens back in the black?
Posted by: Joel | Sep 15, 2008 11:46:38 AM
For these past 8 years the Republican Bush administration every single December blamed the failing economy on the consumer lowering their spending during the holliday season. Yet the Republicans would pat themselves on the back every late spring and early summer with claims that the country will do better due to their bolstering of the economy. Yet it was the same every single year with the rollercoaster economy. In September 2007 Republican Feds had messed with the interest rate making things worse. By February 2008 Republican Feds helped cause such a flux in the economy that they had to mess with the interest rate yet again. And the Republicans did it a few more times. Each time the Republican Feds just dug the hole deeper. One year after September 2007 when they first "MESSED WITH THE INTEREST RATE", the Republican Feds dug the hole so deep for the USA economy it is hard to see that small dimming light up above.
Posted by: mere | Sep 15, 2008 11:47:40 AM
Hey tom, do you also believe Harry Potter is a real person. You seem to live in a fantasy world. What NoBama proposes is one step away from socialism, wake up, "THERE IS NO FREE LUNCH" You claim to be a member of the working class like I am, well tom, the more I worked the more I got and you can't have any of mine, just because fantasy man say's you can!!
Posted by: bombem | Sep 15, 2008 11:51:03 AM
Perhaps Democratic Representatives Charlie Rangel and Nancy Pelosi have advice for us. Rep. Rangel got an interest-free $75,000 loan from a developer on his home in the Dominican Republic. Rangel, chairman of the House Ways & Means Committee - which writes the tax laws, failed pay taxes on the gift and failed to disclose it. Democractic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi says he should still remain chair of the House Ways & Means Committee in spite of this corruption or incompetence (you make the call). For details, go here:
Posted by: Corrupt Democrats | Sep 15, 2008 11:51:41 AM
This crisis is during the Republican Big Plan for America and McCain wants the same as Bush (as he's stated) so what the heck is he going to do to make it better? Not a darn thing, he has no plan and people will be starving and the rich will be hiring slaves that are the product of the past Republican fiasco. NO MCCAIN, we have to change things with Obama and a Democratic Congress so we can get back to reality instead of this Bush nightmare.
Posted by: Brenda | Sep 15, 2008 11:54:47 AM
bombem---keep up with the lies you learn from rush limburger.. guess what capitalism is broken and corupt and so greedy that it has failed and until we clean out all the rich republicans that have did thsi to our once great nation we need a little socialism to get us thru this rough time.i work a full time job 40 hours a week one part time job 15 hours a week and one part time job 10 hours a week, and i can hardly pay my bills were as ten years ago under clinton i only had my full time job and i lived good. that is what you get under a republican bad economy and bad ideas.
Posted by: tom | Sep 15, 2008 11:54:58 AM
bombem---also every year my health insurance goes up 20% and covers 15% less. there is 47,000,000 with out insurance. my brother-in-law works for the loacl hospital they write off 15,000,000 a year on taxes for non-payments from people with no insurance. taht is one small hospital so guess what you are already paying for everybody else that doesnt have insurance i would rather pay it up front then let these rich hospitals control what they write off.
Posted by: tom | Sep 15, 2008 11:58:19 AM
Crash Baby Crash....Burn Baby Burn !
Posted by: Tomjoad1776 | Sep 15, 2008 12:02:58 PM
The money changers are having a bad day ? That breaks my heart. LOL
Posted by: Tomjoad1776 | Sep 15, 2008 12:05:56 PM
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