The Numbers
A Run at the Latest Data from ABC's Poobah of Polling, Gary Langer
Gary Langer is director of polling at ABC News, where he's covered the beat of public opinion for nearly 20 years - conducting and analyzing ABC News polls, evaluating data from other sources and setting the news division's standards for poll reporting. Langer is a two-time Emmy award winner, both for ABC's reporting of public opinion polls in Iraq.
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Game On: Here Come the Votes
September 16, 2008 11:30 AM
Pennsylvanians serving in the military may have completed the task already. Kentuckians and North Carolinians can start any time now. And in the next week or so people in up to a dozen more states can go ahead and be done with it.
Voting for president, that is.
The political world may be focused on Election Day, Nov. 4, but balloting already is beginning in the 2008 presidential election. The vehicle – absentee voting – is a growing and potentially transformational phenomenon in American politics; in 2004 more than one in five voters cast their ballots before Election Day actually arrived.
It can make a dramatic difference in campaign strategies. A knockout punch in the debates won’t matter a whit to people who’ve already cast their ballots, and last-minute appeals make no difference at all to first-minute voters. And they’re coming. Like now.
Absentee ballots became available yesterday in Kentucky and North Carolina, according to election officials in both states. For some military voters the gates opened even earlier; in Pennsylvania, the secretary of state’s office says county officials were required as of Aug. 26 to start mailing ballots to overseas service members in “extremely remote or isolated areas” who’ve requested them. That can include Iraq, where the U.S. Postal Service says delivery takes 7 to 10 days. (Ballots go out to other Pennsylvanians overseas starting Friday, while those here in the states have to wait until Oct. 21.)
More are coming, soon. A summary prepared by The Associated Press for the National Election Pool, the media group that tallies votes on Election Day, says absentee ballots should start to become available in nine more states by the end of this week. Five more states should follow anywhere from Sunday through Tuesday, with more coming.
The rules on absentee voting vary from highly restrictive to wide open, all the way to Oregon, where all voting is by mail. Twenty-eight other states have unconditional absentee voting, seven more have relatively loose rules (including Washington, D.C.) and 15 have strict ones.
There are other ways to go: Nineteen states also allow “in-person absentee voting,” starting anywhere from 30 to as many as 45 days before Election Day in Maine (depending on when ballots are printed), six weeks before Election Day in South Dakota and 40 days before Election Day in Iowa and Wyoming. (This allows you to drop off a completed absentee ballot at a county election office.) Seventeen states also make arrangements for early voting (using voting machines set up early at satellite polling places); that starts as soon as Oct. 2 in Arizona and Oct. 6 in California.
It all adds up. That AP summary says 21.9 percent of votes cast for president in 2004 were absentee or early votes, up from 15.7 percent in 2000 – more than 26 million votes, soaring as high as 68.8 percent of the total in Washington state, 53.1 percent in Nevada and 51.1 percent in Texas. Among anticipated battleground states, absentees accounted for 50.6 percent of voters in New Mexico, 47.8 percent in Colorado and 36.2 percent in Florida, though many fewer in Ohio and Pennsylvania.
How they voted isn't perfectly known, but absentees sure can make a difference. In our final pre-election tracking poll in 2004, 15 percent of “likely” voters in fact said they’d already voted (our estimate did not include any overseas absentees). They divided by 53-45 percent between George W. Bush and John Kerry, compared with a dead-even 48-48 percent race among the rest.
This year absentee voting could go even higher. Which is why, if the candidates seem to be running like there’s no tomorrow, that’s because, for some voters, there is.
September 16, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (50)
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Good news for those ahead in the polls if a significant number of people vote early. That, of course, includes McCain/Palin. Bad news for the shallow one.
Posted by: dl | Sep 16, 2008 11:51:32 AM
I predict big time voter fraud on the Obama side. He learned dirty Chicago poitics and how to screw Alice Palmer out of a victory. Check out his ties to ACORN. I heard a pundit say this election will make the Bush/Gore/Florida debacle look like a tea party and could very well take a month before all is settled and we really know who got what votes. I just feel the Axlerod/Obama machine is primed and ready to cheat.
Posted by: Debra | Sep 16, 2008 11:53:59 AM
we all know taht history ahs showen us that all teh republicans know how to do in a election is cheat...bush had his brother cheat for him in florida in 2000. he lied and cheated by teh swiftboat crap to win in 2004... so i know obama and his team are watching the most evil political party in the history of man the republicans to make sure they dont cheat.
Posted by: tom | Sep 16, 2008 12:01:31 PM
A Serious Cover-Up
William Ayers founded the CAC (Chicago Annenberg Challenge) in the 1990's and Barack Hussein Obama chaired it in the 1990's. They worked together closely. William Ayers would only have chosen someone who fit his own ideology.
Obama stated to America “The notion that somehow as a consequence of me knowing somebody who engaged in detestable acts 40 years ago, when I was 8 years old, somehow reflects on me and my values doesn’t make much sense.” Why lie to the American public? Obama worked closely with William Ayers and even chaired the CAC founded by Ayers in the 1990’s.
Posted by: Mike | Sep 16, 2008 12:04:29 PM
It's amazing to me that the only ones ever caught cheating in an election is the Republicans, yet they can't help themselves (standard operating procedure) from pointing fingers everywhere else.
Posted by: CMSgt Gary Preston | Sep 16, 2008 12:10:08 PM
dl--- yes i am sore the economy is crashed we went from budget surplus and no national debt to 400 billion over budget and a 9 trillion dollar debt. we are in a illegal war that never should have been waged. ye sme and 70% of america are sore and we will show the evil empire republicans this fall by throwing them out on there butts.
Posted by: tom | Sep 16, 2008 12:14:49 PM
so good obama just hammered mcbush on cnn. why would we elect a guy taht by his word voted 90% of the time with bush the guy that got us in this horrible economy. how is mccain going to clean up all the greed and profiterring?? by giving the rich greedy a tax cut...that is os out of touch the last 8 years the rich have been raping america now i say let them pay for the mess they made.
Posted by: tom | Sep 16, 2008 12:31:32 PM
I just don't understand how Obama can be tied or behind in the polls and he's raised at least 4 times the money McCain has?
It's really too bad Hillary didn't win the Democratic nomination. The experience issue with Obama is too strong and with Hillary it would've been mute.
They have such similar ideologies but the mud slinging from Obama supporters towards Hillary was so divisive. I, for one, as a WV native was so put off by the durogatory comments made about us West Virginians when Hillary won WV.
If Hillary had won the ticket we would've knocked this one out of the park. Now, it's just not looking good.
Posted by: MajorTom | Sep 16, 2008 12:45:03 PM
Of all the comments on this election I have yet to see one factor that I believe is of prime importance to our country. John McCain is an old man of 72 years (so am I). He has had health problems more than once. There is a real possibility that if elected he will die in office. This leaves his Vice President as our President. Has anyone actually considered this prospect? If not why not. It is important. Is she ready to be and capable of being our Commander in Chief?
Surely it is not indelicate to bring this up. Our future rides on just such important questions. Palin may be a woman and a headliner but she is not able here.
Posted by: JIM | Sep 16, 2008 2:05:48 PM
I'm surprised by the comments made on this post by republicans, you claim Obama is a "newbie socialist" or a "shallow" candidate and yet you people leave these disgusting remarks. Its people like you who make this country terrible, people like you who claim to have a sense of knowlege yet you rant and rave like a child. America should be a place of free democratic ideals in a competent manner otherwise we are just once again the laghing stalk of the world
Posted by: Bob | Sep 16, 2008 5:02:22 PM
It seems strange to me that we want to blame the President (Democrat or Republican) for the economy. Congress controls the money. How much were you paying for gas 2 years ago before the Dems took control of both house of Congress what was unemployment then how was the stock market then?? If you realy want change we need to change congress. I wish we had 3 strong parties so they would have to work together and not stone wall each other but we don't.
Posted by: Don | Sep 16, 2008 5:45:33 PM
tom- If the polls and other indications are even close to true you may have to way 4 to 8 years to through the Rep. out. Sorry this was the Dems year and it looks like they have blown it again. They blew it in 2004, oh yes they want to claim cheating and so on so on but the true fact is they lost. If they do this year they got only themself to blame. If Hillary had been the canidate then I think it might have been a lot different. Also take a look at the Senate and congress polls these are the ones that really matter, the Dems are losing ground fast in this also. So breath deep and wait for 4 to 8 years. Then you better find someone good cause they are going to be up against Palin who may carry it then. Have a very nice day.
Posted by: Robert | Sep 17, 2008 12:55:04 AM
tom- Me again, Please do me a favor, do not bring JFK up in the same light as you do Obama. If JFK was alive today he would be closer to the Reps then the Dems. Take a look at his policies and you will find that he was not even close with the Dems. but very close to the Rep. This is why I left the Dem party gone to far and I mean far left.
Posted by: Robert | Sep 17, 2008 12:58:45 AM
Don said: "It seems strange to me that we want to blame the President (Democrat or Republican) for the economy. Congress controls the money."
Yes, but the regulatory agencies of government report to the Executive Branch. The President met this week with the Working Group on Financial Markets. This group is make up of the Treasury Secretary and the Chairmen of the Federal Reserve and the Security and Exchange Commission. They meet infrequently and always in reaction to financial crisis, not proactively to avert potential crises. They have had access to internal data and reports that for years have been warning that the nation's and the world's investment capital have been becoming more and more saturated with junk loan (Subprime) derivatives. The said nothing. They did nothing.
These agencies have regulatory responsibilities. They are supposed to look out for the public's interests. But over the years, and especially during the past eight, we have seen the concept of regulation turned on its head. Industry insiders are appointed to head the agencies that are supposed to regulate them. Regulators seem to be more concerned with protecting the interests of the industries they are supposed to regulate than with the public interest. Lobbyists from industry are actually writing regulatory policies. Legislators eviscerate regulations, then leave office and take high paying jobs in the industry they were writing laws for.
It's not just the financial markets. It's been energy, mining, health care, pharmaceuticals, the environment... the list goes on.
Congress can pass regulatory laws, but what happens when the regulators don't enforce them? Congress has oversight responsibilities, but how many times have we seen efforts to perform oversight of the Executive Branch been stymied and stonewalled over the years. Committee rules and tactics have made oversight all but impossible when there is determined opposition.
McCain says he wants to clean up the corruption in Washington. What does that really mean?
There was a blowup between Obama and McCain when they tried to work bipartisanly on ethics reform. It was outlined in a series of letters between them. The Democrats had a bill they wanted to send directly to committee hearings. McCain said, it has to go to a task force first, for further study.
Just this week, McCain response to the financial crisis is to create a committee to study the problem. Is that what he means by maverick reformer?
Posted by: JoeC | Sep 17, 2008 1:21:33 AM
I'm sorry for going so far off topic. I keep forgetting ...
"This election is not about issues"
Rick Davis, McCain Campaign Manager
Posted by: JoeC | Sep 17, 2008 1:41:48 AM
Google Obama and ACORN....there is a piece about Obama and Voter fraud in the Detroit paper today.....this will be the worst in history....count on it.
Posted by: Debra | Sep 17, 2008 2:34:12 AM
The US economy has sucked since 9/11. Everyone tries to say it is Bush's fault - it really is not.
US needs Oil bad and innovative energy solutions in a hurry if they want to get their economy back on track.
Bickering about tax structure A vs. tax structure B is frivolous. It makes little difference - and the arguments on both sides are just smoke and mirrirs.
Seriously - the Republicans strategy for dealing with energy and the war on terror is most appealling.
Palin seems to understand this the most.
Posted by: s mebep | Sep 17, 2008 1:50:07 PM
Why do some Republicans resort to name calling rather than discussing the issues. It's childish and mean spirited. I won't vote for McCain because I disagree with him on issues. If you don't like Obama's ideas, fair enough.... but adhominem attacks say more about your character than the character of the person you're attacking! Be civil!
Posted by: Hallie | Sep 17, 2008 3:01:56 PM
McCain had a small boost after the convention which gradually evaporated. With Fannie, Freddie, Lehman, AIG, Merrill Lynch going down the tube Obama got a huge advantage now. For next 6 weeks, worry about economy will be front and center and will result in a big Obama win. It seems that Obama will take Ohio, Virginia and North Carolina. That is massive.
Posted by: SP | Sep 17, 2008 9:24:03 PM
Obama...all the way!!!!!!
Posted by: mary | Sep 17, 2008 10:25:08 PM
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