The Numbers
A Run at the Latest Data from ABC's Poobah of Polling, Gary Langer
Gary Langer is director of polling at ABC News, where he's covered the beat of public opinion for nearly 20 years - conducting and analyzing ABC News polls, evaluating data from other sources and setting the news division's standards for poll reporting. Langer has won two Emmy awards for ABC's reporting of public opinion polls in Iraq, and The Numbers blog was honored this year as winner of the 2008 Iowa Gallup Award for Excellent Journalism Using Polls.
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Game On: Here Come the Votes
September 16, 2008 11:30 AM
Pennsylvanians serving in the military may have completed the task already. Kentuckians and North Carolinians can start any time now. And in the next week or so people in up to a dozen more states can go ahead and be done with it.
Voting for president, that is.
The political world may be focused on Election Day, Nov. 4, but balloting already is beginning in the 2008 presidential election. The vehicle – absentee voting – is a growing and potentially transformational phenomenon in American politics; in 2004 more than one in five voters cast their ballots before Election Day actually arrived.
It can make a dramatic difference in campaign strategies. A knockout punch in the debates won’t matter a whit to people who’ve already cast their ballots, and last-minute appeals make no difference at all to first-minute voters. And they’re coming. Like now.
Absentee ballots became available yesterday in Kentucky and North Carolina, according to election officials in both states. For some military voters the gates opened even earlier; in Pennsylvania, the secretary of state’s office says county officials were required as of Aug. 26 to start mailing ballots to overseas service members in “extremely remote or isolated areas” who’ve requested them. That can include Iraq, where the U.S. Postal Service says delivery takes 7 to 10 days. (Ballots go out to other Pennsylvanians overseas starting Friday, while those here in the states have to wait until Oct. 21.)
More are coming, soon. A summary prepared by The Associated Press for the National Election Pool, the media group that tallies votes on Election Day, says absentee ballots should start to become available in nine more states by the end of this week. Five more states should follow anywhere from Sunday through Tuesday, with more coming.
The rules on absentee voting vary from highly restrictive to wide open, all the way to Oregon, where all voting is by mail. Twenty-eight other states have unconditional absentee voting, seven more have relatively loose rules (including Washington, D.C.) and 15 have strict ones.
There are other ways to go: Nineteen states also allow “in-person absentee voting,” starting anywhere from 30 to as many as 45 days before Election Day in Maine (depending on when ballots are printed), six weeks before Election Day in South Dakota and 40 days before Election Day in Iowa and Wyoming. (This allows you to drop off a completed absentee ballot at a county election office.) Seventeen states also make arrangements for early voting (using voting machines set up early at satellite polling places); that starts as soon as Oct. 2 in Arizona and Oct. 6 in California.
It all adds up. That AP summary says 21.9 percent of votes cast for president in 2004 were absentee or early votes, up from 15.7 percent in 2000 – more than 26 million votes, soaring as high as 68.8 percent of the total in Washington state, 53.1 percent in Nevada and 51.1 percent in Texas. Among anticipated battleground states, absentees accounted for 50.6 percent of voters in New Mexico, 47.8 percent in Colorado and 36.2 percent in Florida, though many fewer in Ohio and Pennsylvania.
How they voted isn't perfectly known, but absentees sure can make a difference. In our final pre-election tracking poll in 2004, 15 percent of “likely” voters in fact said they’d already voted (our estimate did not include any overseas absentees). They divided by 53-45 percent between George W. Bush and John Kerry, compared with a dead-even 48-48 percent race among the rest.
This year absentee voting could go even higher. Which is why, if the candidates seem to be running like there’s no tomorrow, that’s because, for some voters, there is.
September 16, 2008 in 2008 General Election | Permalink | User Comments (50)
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Great news for Obama. Bad news for Rep's. Rep's better not stop votes from voting this election. To many lawyers on hand this year so Rep's can't turn away voters.
Posted by: Mrs Ethel | Sep 18, 2008 3:23:01 AM
I was going to vote for Obama but know I'm voting for Sarah Palin. She is the only one that truly represent the middle class people. The democrat seems to be talking to much with no substance. Go Sarah Palin the next vice president of the US !!
Posted by: mar | Sep 18, 2008 9:13:12 AM
mar - do you realize American soldiers are fighting currently and have fought and DIED for your right to vote? And to vote for Palin because you think you can relate to her is to laugh in the face of these soldiers and their sacrifice. You are not thinking clearly. You're not. You are making an emotional vote and not an objective one. Palin brings nothing to this election except an American Idol like quality, which while exciting, evaporates quickly. Barack has talked about nothing but substance -- you just haven't been listening. By the way - Palin and McCain (remember, McCain, the guy running for president??) represent THE EXACT OPPOSITE OF EVERYTHING THAT WILL BE GOOD FOR THE MIDDLE CLASS. mar - I care about you and people like you and I don't want them to make the biggest mistake of their lives, and the lives of children who will come after us. Please, for God's sake, stop and think clearly about who you are voting for and why.
Posted by: Adam | Sep 18, 2008 10:32:31 AM
Well looks like Obama is ahead by 2 points on CNN and Gallup. Basically the conclusion, polls mean nothing and voters keep switching. Only 10% of Americans are still undecided and those will wait until Nov 4 to vote, after Obama obliterates McCain and Biden squashes Palin.
Isnt it funny Palin is trying to stall the trooper probe past Nov 4? Republicans really are evil.
Posted by: Ricky | Sep 18, 2008 12:13:19 PM
I predict big time voter fraud on the McCain side. He learned dirty Washinton poitics and how to screw everybody out of a victory. Check out his ties to Bush. I heard a pundit say this election will make the Bush/Gore/Florida debacle look like a tea party and could very well take a month before all is settled and we really know who got what votes.
Posted by: historyforgotten | Sep 18, 2008 4:51:15 PM
mar- take it from a republican, Sarah can not and has not spoken for herself yet. As for middle class. did'nt she just hock a plane for 600,000 dollars? I guess not to many middle class people have a plane.
Posted by: historyforgotten | Sep 18, 2008 4:55:09 PM
s mebep-Obama wants to exercise all energy forms. Wind, solar, hydro. These will create more jobs than a few oil rigs. And he's more concerned with long term effects on the environment than McCains oil buddies. Palin is shallow. I just hope one day I can lift my head and say I am a Republican again. But so far I am siding with Obama and Biden for the future of our children. 5% of big businesses rule 95% of America. Just look at the Energy lobbiest right now. You can be a Free Thinking Liberal Republican. They also tend to think about change.But to being to Conservative can keep you in a rut.
Posted by: historyforgotten | Sep 18, 2008 5:04:14 PM
McCain is going to have to cheat his way into the white house because there is no way he'll earn it fair and square!
Posted by: bea | Sep 18, 2008 9:37:11 PM
OBAMA/BIDEN 08' Because we all know the ending to the last 8 years!
Posted by: timesuprepubs | Sep 18, 2008 9:54:32 PM
Lets see Obama will increase taxes for the top 1% (making over 600k a year) by an average of 96k a year, or McCain which will decrease the taxes for the wealthiest 1% (making over 600k a year) by an average of 48k (an 8% pay raise). Give me the socialist view any day!!
OBAMA/BIDEN 08'
Posted by: timesuprepubs | Sep 18, 2008 9:58:39 PM
The POLL of POLLS now has OBAMA/BIDEN ahead by 3% 47 to 44. BYE BYE MCSAME/FLAVOR OF THE WEEK..
Posted by: timesuprepubs | Sep 18, 2008 10:02:20 PM
I don't know why people is so dumb predicting some ones dead, without thinking that God is the only one who knows when is going to be our day. Who knows that the people is saying that Mccain is going to died in Office, is going to go firt?. Who knows if Obama is going to die first than Mccain?
Posted by: DD | Sep 19, 2008 10:48:00 AM
My fellow Americans, what has happened to accountability? Millions of Americans have suffered due to an administration and party that has put their interest before the American people. Where I come from its simple, your party had 8 years and they failed horribly and have let the American people down. The Reps have failed us in all facets 8 strikes your out!!!
Posted by: Vance | Sep 19, 2008 11:29:34 AM
Ok so I have read all of the recent posts and cannot believe what I am reading. Where has the respect for another person gone? Why are there so many personal attacks?
At one time we were a nation of the people, by the people and for the people. JFK in his presidential address stated, “ask not what your country can do for you - ask what you can do for your country.” He also states
“Let both sides explore what problems unite us instead of belaboring those problems which divide us." Seems we need some edumacating.
The predicament we are all in, from the war, to our economy, falls directly on all of our shoulders. Both republicans and democrats, you and I. Both parties share equally in the mess we are in, as well as the people that elected them. Stand up and be accountable for your actions! An election should be about the issues and which candidate more closely REPRESENTS your views, not what is listed in a personal email account or what a guy’s middle name is. The thing you should all do is to vote for the person that most closely resembles your point of view...for me, McCain and Palin...you got my vote. Do I agree with everything you represent, absolutely not. But at least you have the conviction to stand behind what you believe in.
Posted by: MB | Sep 19, 2008 5:17:22 PM
Why is Obama's Health Care Plan better?
For starters it's because McCain doesn't have one. Now for the rest of the story:
The big threat to growth in the next decade is not oil or food prices, but the rising cost of health care. The doubling of health insurance premiums since 2000 makes employers choose between cutting benefits and hiring fewer workers.
Rising health costs push total employment costs up and wages and benefits down. The result is lost profits and lost wages, in addition to pointless risk, insecurity and a flood of personal bankruptcies.
APSustained growth thus requires successful health-care reform. Barack Obama and John McCain propose to lead us in opposite directions -- and the Obama direction is far superior.
Sen. Obama's proposal will modernize our current system of employer- and government-provided health care, keeping what works well, and making the investments now that will lead to a more efficient medical system. He does this in five ways:
- Learning. One-third of medical costs go for services at best ineffective and at worst harmful. Fifty billion dollars will jump-start the long-overdue information revolution in health care to identify the best providers, treatments and patient management strategies.
- Rewarding. Doctors and hospitals today are paid for performing procedures, not for helping patients. Insurers make money by dumping sick patients, not by keeping people healthy. Mr. Obama proposes to base Medicare and Medicaid reimbursements to hospitals and doctors on patient outcomes (lower cholesterol readings, made and kept follow-up appointments) in a coordinated effort to focus the entire payment system around better health, not just more care.
- Pooling. The Obama plan would give individuals and small firms the option of joining large insurance pools. With large patient pools, a few people incurring high medical costs will not topple the entire system, so insurers would no longer need to waste time, money and resources weeding out the healthy from the sick, and businesses and individuals would no longer have to subject themselves to that costly and stressful process.
- Preventing. In today's health-care market, less than one dollar in 25 goes for prevention, even though preventive services -- regular screenings and healthy lifestyle information -- are among the most cost-effective medical services around. Guaranteeing access to preventive services will improve health and in many cases save money.
- Covering. Controlling long-run health-care costs requires removing the hidden expenses of the uninsured. The reforms described above will lower premiums by $2,500 for the typical family, allowing millions previously priced out of the market to afford insurance.
In addition, tax credits for those still unable to afford private coverage, and the option to buy in to the federal government's benefits system, will ensure that all individuals have access to an affordable, portable alternative at a price they can afford.
Given the current inefficiencies in our system, the impact of the Obama plan will be profound. Besides the $2,500 savings in medical costs for the typical family, according to our research annual business-sector costs will fall by about $140 billion. Our figures suggest that decreasing employer costs by this amount will result in the expansion of employer-provided health insurance to 10 million previously uninsured people.
We know these savings are attainable: other countries have them today. We spend 40% more than other countries such as Canada and Switzeraland on health care -- nearly $1 trillion -- but our health outcomes are no better.
The lower cost of benefits will allow employers to hire some 90,000 low-wage workers currently without jobs because they are currently priced out of the market. It also would pull one and a half million more workers out of low-wage low-benefit and into high-wage high-benefit jobs. Workers currently locked into jobs because they fear losing their health benefits would be able to move to entrepreneurial jobs, or simply work part time.
In contrast, Sen. McCain, who constantly repeats his no-new-taxes promise on the campaign trail, proposes a big tax hike as the solution to our health-care crisis. His plan would raise taxes on workers who receive health benefits, with the idea of encouraging their employers to drop coverage. A study conducted by University of Michigan economist Tom Buchmueller and colleagues published in the journal Health Affairs suggests that the McCain tax hike will lead employers to drop coverage for over 20 million Americans.
What would happen to these people? Mr. McCain will give them a small tax credit, $5,000 for a family and $2,500 for an individual, and tell them to navigate the individual insurance market on their own.
For middle- and lower-income people, the credits are way too small. They are less than half the cost of policies today ($12,000 on average for a family), and are far below the 75% that most employers offering coverage contribute. Further, their value would erode over time, as the credit increases less rapidly than average premiums.
Those already sick are completely out of luck, as individual insurers are free to deny coverage due to pre-existing conditions. Mr. McCain has proposed a high-risk pool for the very sick, but has not put forward the money to make it work.
Even for those healthy enough to gain coverage in the individual insurance market, the screening, marketing and individual underwriting that insurers do to separate healthy from sick boosts premiums by 17% relative to employer-provided insurance, well beyond the help offered by the McCain tax credit.
The immediate consequences of the McCain plan are even worse. The McCain plan is a big tax increase on employers and workers. With the economy in recession, that's the last thing America's businesses need.
Finally, Mr. McCain does nothing to bend the curve of rising health-care costs downward. He does not fund investments in learning, rewarding and preventing. Eliminating state coverage requirements will slash preventive service availability.
The high cost-sharing plans he envisions will similarly discourage preventive care. And as he does nothing about the hidden costs of the uncovered -- expensive ER visits, recurring conditions resulting from inadequate follow-up care.
Everyone agrees our health-care financing system must change. But only one candidate, Barack Obama, has real change we can believe in.
Posted by: indevoter | Sep 19, 2008 5:42:46 PM
Gallup is the one to watch. They have been doing this for about 70 years and in the last presidential election they had Bush over Kerry by 2.5% and guess what? Bush beat Kerry by 2.5%. Gallup uses a minimum of 1000, and usually it's about 3000+.
Here is the latest Gallup poll:
Gallup Tracking 09/16 - 09/18 2796 RV Obama 49 / McCAIN 44 (Obama +5)
Posted by: indevoter | Sep 19, 2008 5:49:17 PM
As a single working mother of three kids under 13 years old, and as a resident of west palm beach, florida. I am amazed that anyone who works for a living and never gets ahead, food prices going up, rent, gas, electric, water. I have been turned down by this government for food stamps to help ease this pain I feel week after week and it seems no is listening. I am a Hillary Clinton supporter, therefore I am an Obama supporter. These republicans say they care about us poor people....they do nothing but lie right to our faces and offer no real hope for those of us who struggle just to fight another day. I used to be a faithful person, but these last eight years have changed my views drastically. Real folks are concerned about feeding and sheltering their families, not about abortion rights. Is John McCain he best the republicans could scrape up. I will end this by saying that I was, a Reagan Democrat who cannot believe what these guys have done to our beautiful, imperfect America? Did they move it to Alaska and forget to tell the rest of us?
Go Obama Go.....
Posted by: Joanne | Sep 20, 2008 8:34:22 AM
Let me get this out of the way first: I support Obama-Biden.
But I have to agree with a McCain-Palin supporter -- attacking each other is not productive. This election is important, but not as important as the serious issues our country faces. If we divide along partisan lines, those issues could overwhelm us.
Every Obama-Biden supporter, and every McCain-Palin supporter, wants what's best for America. We want a strong economy and a safe, healthy nation. We want America to be as great, or better yet, greater, for future generations as it has been for us. We all agree on the goals. Where we differ is on how to reach them, and surely we can work together on that.
Do your homework on the candidates and the issues. Decide for yourself who you want in the next administration. And don't berate people who come to a different conclusion than yours.
America needs a strong Democratic Party and a strong Republican Party, both focused on the good of the country, both competing to formulate the best plans to improve America. It's the all-American spirit of innovation through competition.
Before you attack someone who supports the "other side," remember that you're really on the same side -- our country's side. Think about how you would feel if someone tried to take away that person's right to vote for whomever they chose.
Posted by: Stephen | Sep 20, 2008 2:39:59 PM
I'm sorry for McBushers out there, but I have taken close notice this round at both canidates. I'm probably one of few that actually understands Obama's economic plan, because I didn't try to over complicate a simple statement. As I have watch McBush over the last few months I have some questions about his mental state. Him babbling on the other day about fish swimming around oil rigs. YIKES!! Refering to Spain as Latin America? Then when corrected called them an Adversary? Not knowing how many houses he owns? And his "educated guess" he made with his speach on Friday 09/19/08, hmmmm I think I have heard that before about preditory lenders starting this colaps in the housing market. Oh yeah Obama has been saying it for over a year now.
Posted by: Charles | Sep 21, 2008 2:22:31 AM
I will be voting in Illinois on October 14th - all registered voters in Illinois are eligible.
Obama/Biden 08
Posted by: Theresa, Joliet, IL | Sep 21, 2008 2:28:07 PM
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