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Do Debates Matter?

The presidential debates are scheduled to start tonight, inevitably portrayed as potentially decisive. Is it so? Do debates change things? Directly and measurably, generally not. But indirectly or more subtly, likely so. And there are plenty of reasons to think...

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September 26, 2008 in 2008 General Election | Permalink | User Comments (80)

Polling and Party ID

Some confusion about polling and partisan affiliation worked its way into the campaign dialogue today. Let’s sort it out. It’s at issue because Bill McInturff, pollster for the McCain campaign, held a conference call to suggest the latest ABC News/Washington...

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September 24, 2008 in Partisanship/Party ID | Permalink | User Comments (68)

Views on the Bailout... um, Investment

Three new poll questions on the government’s response to the financial crisis underscore the power of words – not only in how we understand polls, but in how we choose to describe the events of our day. Some analysts might...

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September 24, 2008 in Economy | Permalink | User Comments (40)

Emmy Award Cites ABC's Iraq Poll

ABC News last night received the second Emmy award to cite its public opinion polling in Iraq. ABC’s "Iraq: Where Things Stand" coverage of March 2007 was honored as "Best Story in a Regularly Scheduled Newscast" at the annual awards...

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September 23, 2008 in Polling Awards | Permalink | User Comments (1)

Cell-Onlies: Report on a Test

10/2 update: In respose to requests for details, I'm attaching a list of landline and landline-plus-cell-only comparisons here. - Including cell-phone only respondents in a political poll produces a negligible impact on overall results. An ABC News/Washington Post poll done...

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September 19, 2008 in Polling Methods | Permalink | User Comments (8)

Game On: Here Come the Votes

Pennsylvanians serving in the military may have completed the task already. Kentuckians and North Carolinians can start any time now. And in the next week or so people in up to a dozen more states can go ahead and be...

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September 16, 2008 in 2008 General Election | Permalink | User Comments (50)

Economic Discontent: The Brass Ring

Today’s turmoil on Wall Street underscores the brass ring of the presidential election – the American public’s deep economic discontent. The candidate who seizes it very likely wins. Yet both are still grasping. The reasons cut to their broader pros...

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September 15, 2008 in 2008 General Election, Economy | Permalink | User Comments (56)

Tax Impact

There are some interesting nuggets on taxes in our latest ABC/Post poll: Registered voters by a 17-point margin are more apt to think their taxes would rise under Barack Obama than under John McCain, a perception that cuts closely to...

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September 10, 2008 in 2008 General Election, Economy | Permalink | User Comments (71)

White Women and Movability

A good follow-up question to our latest poll's finding on white women is whether they’ve been more changeable overall in their vote preferences in this year of the historic Clinton and Palin candidacies. The answer: Yep. Check out the two...

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September 9, 2008 in 2008 General Election | Permalink | User Comments (81)

McCain's Delicate Dance

George W. Bush’s virtual appearance at the Republican National Convention tonight underscores a prime challenge for John McCain: to weave a safe path between Republicans who still approve of the president and the big majority of Americans who don’t. Bush’s...

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September 2, 2008 in 2008 General Election | Permalink | User Comments (26)