The Numbers
A Run at the Latest Data from ABC's Poobah of Polling, Gary Langer
Gary Langer is director of polling at ABC News, where he's covered the beat of public opinion for nearly 20 years - conducting and analyzing ABC News polls, evaluating data from other sources and setting the news division's standards for poll reporting. Langer has won two Emmy awards for ABC's reporting of public opinion polls in Iraq, and The Numbers blog was honored this year as winner of the 2008 Iowa Gallup Award for Excellent Journalism Using Polls.
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Polling and Party ID
September 24, 2008 12:16 PM
Some confusion about polling and partisan affiliation worked its way into the campaign dialogue today. Let’s sort it out.
It’s at issue because Bill McInturff, pollster for the McCain campaign, held a conference call to suggest the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll in effect overcounted Democrats. The reality is that partisan affiliation in our poll is just about where it’s been all year – and just about where McInturff himself said it might end up on Election Day.
What matters is whether you’re looking at “unleaned” or “leaned” party identification, and whether that’s among registered or likely voters. The most relevant number for this discussion is unleaned party ID among likely voters – 37-30 percent Democratic to Republican in our poll. As it happens that’s precisely where McInturff said the election could turn out: the Republicans, he said, “could be down 6 to 8.”
McInturff’s focus was on a different number - leaned party ID, not unleaned, and among registered voters, not likely voters. We have a 16-point, 54-38 percent Democratic advantage there, which he said was “an unusual outlier.” In fact, rather than an outlier, that almost exactly matches our average for this number all year, 52-38 percent.
Background: Partisanship is measured by asking if people think of themselves as Democrats, Republicans or independents. That’s unleaned party ID. A next step is to ask independents which party they lean toward. That’s leaned party ID.
Unleaned party ID is more telling – it’s more rooted in actual partisan sentiment; it lets us look separately at independents, the quintessential swing voters; and it’s the number that’s comparable to what we learn from the exit polls on Election Day.
As noted, unleaned party ID among likely voters in our latest poll is 37-30 percent. Its average since we started following likely voters in June has been about the same, 36-31 percent. Among the broader population of registered voters it’s 38-28 percent, exactly matching its 2008 average in ABC/Post polls. Our leaned party ID among registered voters, also as noted, is 54-38 percent. Among likely voters it’s 52-41 percent.
I’m attaching to this note a pdf of our party ID breaks all year. You won’t see McInturff’s: “We’ve never talked about our internal numbers during the campaign,” he said. “Ever.”
September 24, 2008 in Partisanship/Party ID | Permalink | User Comments (68)
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as the Obama supporters get panic because of sudden McCain rise in the polls, they are sure to make up something to make Obama look good. I am one who does not trust these polls at all. I think McCain will win. It is only a matter of time that all people realize Obama's actions and records belie his words.
Posted by: amy | Sep 24, 2008 12:27:12 PM
More distraction and distortion. The McCain camp is trying to say that the figures lie when what is actually happening is that the liars are figuring--also known as excuse time.
Posted by: bhciapol | Sep 24, 2008 12:32:04 PM
amy,
Did you read the blog? Have you seen McCains numbers? " McCain rise in the polls"
HUH?
The latest abcnews poll has Obama up by 9. McCain lead by 2... 2 weeks ago.
You're mistaken.
as the McCain supporters get panic because of sudden Obama rise in the polls, they are sure to make up something to make McCain look good.
Posted by: Vanessa | Sep 24, 2008 12:37:36 PM
Any intellegent human being will use their brain to analyze our current economic, politic, education, etc..etc situations, and Mc-Pain will not near any logical choice. I cannot trust him to lead this big country with his low understanding about what's going on in our daily life. We have seen a very good example in the last 8 years, and now you want to experience it again for anpther 4 years? Oops!
Posted by: Concerned US Resident | Sep 24, 2008 12:38:18 PM
Do the Media, Obama and his campaign actually think that anyone in their right mind would actually believe this CRAP? Obama will NOT WIN THIS ELECTION no matter what poll of polls they put out there to try and fool voters. I, have to say, that this election has been the WORSE THIS COUNTRY HAS EVER SEEN. After this election is over in November and President McCain takes office, it is going to take a while to get this country back on track.
Obama is the WORSE presidential candidate that this country has ever seen. I say to the Media and Obama campaign, keep it up with all the lies and political spin and see how far it gets Obama in November.
What we all need to do is get out there and do what ever you can to get McCain/Palin elected. In the end, Obama will LOSE. I still have faith in the American people on election day that they will make the right choice for this country.
McCain/Palin 08
Posted by: Robert | Sep 24, 2008 12:41:31 PM
I am a registered democrat voting for McCain/Palin. I do not trust anything Sen. Obama says. Sen. Obama and his handlers have a secret, dangerous agenda for America.
Posted by: Gloria Liberberg | Sep 24, 2008 12:53:27 PM
A key thing to point out here is that the pollsters don't call people based ON party affiliation, they ASK the people they call about it.
So out of their sampling of people listed as registered voters...more of them are calling themselves Dems or Dem-leaning. That tells a story unto itself.
More people want to be listed as Dems these days.
Now if the called people based on their politcial parties...my guess is the polls would almost always be close to a 50/50 split. So that tells us next to nothing.
Posted by: Greg | Sep 24, 2008 1:02:58 PM
Yes they do Gloria Liberberg, and the rest of the world also!! lock and load!
Posted by: bombem | Sep 24, 2008 1:08:22 PM
I believe the McCain/Palin ticket
will win in november....regardless
how the economy will look in november.
Americans vote for president with certain values regardless if they agree
with all issues........
I'm a democrat BUT i will vote for
McCain/Palin ticket.
McCAIN/PALIN '08
Posted by: ROBERT | Sep 24, 2008 1:17:20 PM
a) Obama supporters are panicking because McCain is apparently doing better in the polls and b) the polls, which show Obama doing significantly better, are lying. Does not compute.
Posted by: TRBoston | Sep 24, 2008 1:30:12 PM
Latest Fox poll Obama 45%, McCain 39%.
Posted by: su | Sep 24, 2008 1:34:53 PM
Buzz up!John McCain, whose ads skewer Barack Obama for his "celebrity" status, has his own close ties to show business, the new issue of Us Weekly reports exclusively.
The 72-year-old was recently made TV-ready by makeup artist Tifanie White who's worked on So You Think You Can Dance and American Idol.
McCain paid the 2002 beauty-school grad $5,583.43 for her services, according to the Federal Election Commission.
Posted by: Jedwards | Sep 24, 2008 2:16:33 PM
I'm a registered Republican voting for Obama/Biden. I do not trust anything Sen. McCain says. Sen. McCain and his handlers have a secret, dangerous agenda for America.
Posted by: Liber Gloriaberg | Sep 24, 2008 2:18:37 PM
Anyone notice that Fox News poll shows Obama ahead by 6 points.
Apparently, McCain only attacks companies that demand McCain and Palin stop hiding and answer questions.
Posted by: Dan | Sep 24, 2008 2:34:58 PM
Obama and the DNC today asked for a dismissal of a Lawsuit filed by Phil Berg regarding his legal citizenship and qualifications for POTUS based upon subject matter and lack of a claim.
No evidence was submitted and ...
No word yet on whether the judge has granted the motion.
I suppose I'll get banned for a link but here goes:
Posted by: blowdownarea | Sep 24, 2008 7:35:42 PM
How in the world can Obama be elected? Reciting a poll from The Democratic Party Washington Post is meaningless. If Obama wins, it's because the Liberal Media of this country bought and paid for the Office of the President. Little is covered about this man's shady Chicago past. His philosophy of what he stands for changes every day according to his audience. He's being packaged and presented by some powerful money that is still unknown to the public. His fast track through Chicago politics and now through the national politics is scary for this country. Still independent.
Posted by: Sandy W | Sep 25, 2008 12:29:51 AM
The incompetence of the McCain campaign is absolutely stunning. If not incompetent, they're either uninformed or lying. Take your pick.
How could these buffoons ever run a country?!
Posted by: James W. | Sep 25, 2008 7:31:05 PM
One word Nobama !
Posted by: drwfll | Sep 25, 2008 10:25:39 PM
Thanks God he's listening ! Obam/Biden for ever.
Posted by: Monique N | Sep 26, 2008 1:05:50 AM
When I read the replies of Demorats who support McCain; What is wrong with you???
Haven't you had enough of idiots running our country!!!
You must be living in a Cave somewhere or just uninformed about everything...
One thing I know, if the republicans get back in the WH, you all will be living in hell; At least I'll wake up each day in Beautiful Sunny Santa Barbara,CA.
Posted by: Dazed & confused | Sep 26, 2008 2:48:23 AM
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