The Numbers

A Run at the Latest Data from ABC's Poobah of Polling, Gary Langer

Gary Langer is director of polling at ABC News, where he's covered the beat of public opinion for nearly 20 years - conducting and analyzing ABC News polls, evaluating data from other sources and setting the news division's standards for poll reporting. Langer has won two Emmy awards for ABC's reporting of public opinion polls in Iraq, and The Numbers blog was honored this year as winner of the 2008 Iowa Gallup Award for Excellent Journalism Using Polls.

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Polling and Party ID

September 24, 2008 12:16 PM

Some confusion about polling and partisan affiliation worked its way into the campaign dialogue today. Let’s sort it out.

It’s at issue because Bill McInturff, pollster for the McCain campaign, held a conference call to suggest the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll in effect overcounted Democrats. The reality is that partisan affiliation in our poll is just about where it’s been all year – and just about where McInturff himself said it might end up on Election Day.

What matters is whether you’re looking at “unleaned” or “leaned” party identification, and whether that’s among registered or likely voters. The most relevant number for this discussion is unleaned party ID among likely voters – 37-30 percent Democratic to Republican in our poll. As it happens that’s precisely where McInturff said the election could turn out: the Republicans, he said, “could be down 6 to 8.”

McInturff’s focus was on a different number  - leaned party ID, not unleaned, and among registered voters, not likely voters. We have a 16-point, 54-38 percent Democratic advantage there, which he said was “an unusual outlier.” In fact, rather than an outlier, that almost exactly matches our average for this number all year, 52-38 percent.

Background: Partisanship is measured by asking if people think of themselves as Democrats, Republicans or independents. That’s unleaned party ID. A next step is to ask independents which party they lean toward. That’s leaned party ID.

Unleaned party ID is more telling – it’s more rooted in actual partisan sentiment; it lets us look separately at independents, the quintessential swing voters; and it’s the number that’s comparable to what we learn from the exit polls on Election Day.

As noted, unleaned party ID among likely voters in our latest poll is 37-30 percent. Its average since we started following likely voters in June has been about the same, 36-31 percent. Among the broader population of registered voters it’s 38-28 percent, exactly matching its 2008 average in ABC/Post polls. Our leaned party ID among registered voters, also as noted, is 54-38 percent. Among likely voters it’s 52-41 percent.

I’m attaching to this note a pdf of our party ID breaks all year. You won’t see McInturff’s: “We’ve never talked about our internal numbers during the campaign,” he said. “Ever.”

September 24, 2008 in Partisanship/Party ID | Permalink | User Comments (68)

User Comments

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This conversation as been concluded by the fox news poll which put obama in the lead.

Pls stop sulking and admit the facts on ground.l'm happy that for once in my lifetime' FOX NEWS IS ACTUALLY FAIR AND BALANCED.

VOTE OBAMA-BIDEN 08.

Posted by: NICKY | Sep 26, 2008 8:11:32 AM

The McCain/Palin ticket is the absolute worst idea that the Republicans could come up with, although they had no one else - what does that tell you?
They have no ideas, other than the same ol crap the repubs have been dishing out to this country for 8 loooooong years. Its time for change and Obama/Biden will give us what this country needs - new ideas, and a real concern for the American people!

VOTE OBAMA/BIDEN IN NOVEMBER!

YES WE CAN AND YES WE WILL!!

Posted by: TERRY4OBAMA | Sep 26, 2008 8:52:30 AM

All I have to say is that in a recent Sarah Palin interview (one out of the whopping three shes done - it shouldn't be that hard to figure out which one I'm talking about) Palin was asked to cite specific examples of McCain's past support of more oversight over Wall Street. Her answer "I'll try to find ya some and I'll bring 'em to ya". PRICELESS!!

Posted by: Candice | Sep 26, 2008 9:32:53 AM

"Do the Media, Obama and his campaign actually think that anyone in their right mind would actually believe this CRAP? Obama will NOT WIN THIS ELECTION no matter what poll of polls they put out there to try and fool voters. I, have to say, that this election has been the WORSE THIS COUNTRY HAS EVER SEEN. After this election is over in November and President McCain takes office, it is going to take a while to get this country back on track.

Obama is the WORSE presidential candidate that this country has ever seen. I say to the Media and Obama campaign, keep it up with all the lies and political spin and see how far it gets Obama in November."
GO MY HERO MCCAIN!

Posted by: nancysabet | Sep 26, 2008 11:42:34 AM

Wow- how misguided are these Republicans--I guess not everyone researches the facts and just decides to believe what they read and see on the news. Wake up McCain is not change he represents corporate America and his views are just another representation of an administration that continues to mislead this country. McCain do bloggers know that you have supported so many of Bush's foreign policies and lack the MAVERICK persona you so pursue. Dont just blog vote OBAMA. OBAMA will be in the white house in January--Americans are smarter than McCain and Palin think.

Posted by: James | Sep 26, 2008 10:38:46 PM

Obama is totally credible, totally tuned in and aware of life in 2008. Unfortunately McCain comes across as out of touch, unaware of what's important to Americans in this day and age and really living in the past, focusing on where he's been and what happened during those times, instead of what's happening now. Barak Obama DOES UNDERSTAND. Sadly, McCain doesn't.

Posted by: Jeff Bellows | Sep 26, 2008 10:44:15 PM

Nobama has no chance FACT! The DNC blew it. Clintons was Americas only chance.
So suffer America and you will, FACT. You may mot beleive me now, but you will, FACT. What else can I say, except hope I am wrong. I love america, but not the crooks!

Posted by: drwfll | Sep 26, 2008 10:45:12 PM

After watching Obama's performance, as a Clinton supporter, I decided to go for McCain finally!
McCain is ready to lead, Obama was very nervous and did not answer the asked questions , kept changing subjects, and told few baseless comments!

Posted by: Democrat | Sep 26, 2008 11:06:53 PM

Obamanation is what it will be if Obama wins. McCain is a republican, but it doesn't mean more of the same we have had the last 8 years. You can say what you want about Bush, but he has kept American safe since 911. Clintons had it easy, and got all the credit for Senior Bush's work. You can not change the country and see the results in just four years. Clintons are what started the mortage mess....look it up yourself!!!!

Posted by: Angel | Sep 26, 2008 11:15:03 PM

How can you vote obama. He doesn't even want to be an American. Can't put his hand on his chest and say the pledge, what is wrong with you ppl??? He want to bring back the death tax. He wants to raise taxes on retirement. Come on ppl. He will raise them up 35 % from 10 to 45. We wont have a future we wont be able to afford a future. What about our children? Don't they deserve a future. Not when it will be legal for partial birth abortion under Obama. He will take away our guns, that will just put them in the hands of those who don't need them and we wont be able to protect ourselves anymore. Think ppl think.

Posted by: Brandy | Sep 27, 2008 12:02:56 AM

I watched this debate and still am very confused by the way adults can totally return to childish ways of trying to show who is the "best". I think both men running think they will be better for the country, but I still do believe that experience and a bit of humilty are very important so my idea is that John McCain is what our country needs at this stage of our very bad situations. Obama very much thinks he is the one for the job and if we get him I pray he is, but he truly doesn't seem to understand just what this is all about, but just my own opinion. But I am older and do remember how bad things can get and our country is truly in crisis We cannot just spend our way out or tax our way out.

Ann

Posted by: Ann | Sep 27, 2008 12:04:05 AM

America is in trouble on every side. Our Senators and Congressmen have not did a good job. They should first cut their salaries and pay for there own health care. No more free rides for the politicians. The government should stop printing money it's not worth the paper it's printed on. The politicians should stop over spending in every area. They should not bail out the banks. They should come together with a plan to restructure and fire some CEO's. They should not be compensated for making a mess of the economy. should stop spending and

Posted by: Brenda | Sep 27, 2008 12:11:43 AM

How can you vote McCain? What have the Republicans done for the working people?
The rich continue to take from the poor and give to the rich. You want a President who cares about all the people and who is not ashame to get his hands dirty. Also you want a man who belives in prayer and calling on the Creator who has all the answers.

Posted by: Brenda | Sep 27, 2008 12:20:40 AM

You're right Angel, Clinton got all the credit for Sr. Bush's work and planning, and George Jr. inherited all the mess Clinton created. Clinton started the mortgage mess and the economic decline - some of those "political wizards" need to research it and find out. We will not realize what George Jr. did for our country economically until his term is over and thank God in heaven he has kept us free and safe from terrorists since 9/ll. We cannot afford to hand our country over to a leader who has no knowledge of our military and what it takes to maintain it and its importance in keeping America number one!! Our people are so complacent they have not a clue how these other countries live without power, street bombings, no food, etc. Our people crumble when there is a power blackout or storms takeout power and water. We need a leader who is strong like John McCain and can stand up to these terrorists and the countries that condone them and mean what he says and let them know he knows and has the ability to back it up. Why do you think all the military leaders are backing him? They know it is a scary thought to place our country's freedom in the hands of a man with no experience, who talks out of both sides of his mouth and has to rely on other people to prompt him what to say in these issues. I don't have any faith in what the news media says or who they proclaim the winner in their "poll". Who did they contact? More liberals perhaps? Nobody called the true down to earth Americans who live a true American existence to see what they thought. The news media have always leaned toward liberalism. They need to get real. Oh by the way, I am proud to be an American every day, not like O'bama's wife who said the only time she was proud to be an American was when he got the nomination for President. I don't think that kind of attitude belongs in the Whitehouse, either. John McCain has fought for this country and has the experience to lead it and I believe has earned the right to be President of the United States.

Posted by: Proud to be an American | Sep 27, 2008 12:21:47 AM

How can you vote for Obama? You actually want your taxes going to create more government "programs"? McCain wants to get rid of big government. It will NOT be 4 more years of the same! He is his own person and God created us all to think individually. Obama threw his lifelong Pastor to the curb. Doesn't that tell you something.

Posted by: April | Sep 27, 2008 12:55:30 AM

Wake up. If Barak wins he is not going to run the country. He doesn't have enough experience to run his own party never mind the country. If Barak wins the liberal democrats of congress will run the country. They will roll over him like a field ready to be plowed.

Posted by: Doug | Sep 27, 2008 1:03:30 AM

I keep hearing "liberal media" applied "apparently" to any media that happens to tell the truth. Yesterday I even saw a post that accused Fox News of being "liberal" because of a poll that showed Obama ahead!!!!

Wow... When the hard liners are calling Fox News liberal, you know they are in trouble... Sheesh!!!!

Come on folks.. Pull up you big boy pants... it's time to grow up.

Posted by: Earl | Sep 27, 2008 2:29:15 AM

If you go to the following website you will see McCain refer to Czechoslovakia numerous times
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/07/14/mccain-references-non-exi_n_112650.html
Remember: Czechoslovakia is NO LONGER a country, and hasn't been since Jan 1, 1993. Even my former elementary students knew that! This is the man who wants to be in charge of our foreign affairs! He was in the senate when Czechoslovakia split into two independent countries, the Czech Republic and Slovakia. I don’t expect the average citizens who completed their education prior to 1993 to know that, but this guy claims to be qualified and knowledgeable in foreign affairs.
Also visit the following sites to see McCain’s double talk and blunders. ... these are as bad as the infamous George Bush bloopers. If McCain is elected, international opinion of the USA will drop even lower!
http://therealmccain.com/
http://www.brasschecktv.com/page/325.html

Posted by: rosa | Sep 27, 2008 2:32:29 AM

How can you vote for McCain? You actually want your taxes going to corporate profits? Obama wants to get rid of Bush tax cuts for big business. McCain will be 4 more years of the same! Obama is his own person and God created us all to think individually. McCain threw his lifelong maverick reputation to the curb. Doesn't that tell you something.

Posted by: Earl | Sep 27, 2008 2:34:49 AM

Wake up. If McCain wins he is not going to run the country. He doesn't have enough control to run his own party never mind the country. If McCain wins the conservative republicans of the senate will run the country. They will roll control him like a right wing sock puppet.

Posted by: Earl | Sep 27, 2008 2:43:35 AM

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