The Numbers
A Run at the Latest Data from ABC's Poobah of Polling, Gary Langer
Gary Langer is director of polling at ABC News, where he's covered the beat of public opinion for nearly 20 years - conducting and analyzing ABC News polls, evaluating data from other sources and setting the news division's standards for poll reporting. Langer is a two-time Emmy award winner, both for ABC's reporting of public opinion polls in Iraq.
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White Women and Movability
September 09, 2008 3:12 PM
A good follow-up question to our latest poll's finding on white women is whether they’ve been more changeable overall in their vote preferences in this year of the historic Clinton and Palin candidacies. The answer: Yep.
Check out the two tables below. There’ve been any number of swings among white women between majority preference for Barack Obama or John McCain – in the spring as Obama and Hillary Clinton duked it out, in the early- and mid-summer as Clinton’s intentions remained the subject of speculation, and now as Sarah Palin has joined the GOP ticket. For around one in 10 white women, it’s been a complicated race in which to choose.
There’s been far less movement among white men – they’ve consistently favored McCain by significant margins. The standard deviation (dispersion from the average) among white women has been nearly twice what it’s been among white men. It makes white women especially worth watching; since they've been moving, they could keep moving.
Interestingly, white women also have been a changeable group in past elections. In 2004, per the exit poll, they voted 55-44 percent for George W. Bush over John Kerry; in 2000, though, they divided evenly, 49-48 percent, between Bush and Al Gore. White men, by contrast, went for Bush by about 25-point margins in both those elections.
Among white women
Obama McCain O-M Diff
9/7 41% 53 -12
8/22 50 42 +8
7/13 47 46 +1
6/15 40 53 -13
5/11 43 51 -8
4/13 46 47 -1
3/2 51 41 +10
2/1 43 52 -9
STDEV 4.1 4.9 8.9
Among white men
Obama McCain O-M Diff
9/7 34% 58 -24
8/22 35 57 -22
7/13 35 56 -21
6/15 40 55 -15
5/11 41 54 -13
4/13 39 53 -14
3/2 41 52 -11
2/1 38 58 -20
STDEV 2.9 2.3 4.8
Among the differences between these groups, white women are more apt than white men to be Democrats (by an 11-point margin), more apt to be retirement-aged, less apt to be under 40 and less well-off financially (more apt to have incomes under $50K, less apt to have incomes over $100K). There are no significant differences on ideology, attention to the race, intention to vote, education or religion.
Comparing our last poll to our new one, we find movement toward McCain among white women pretty much across the board (excluding Democrats and liberals), but it’s been most pronounced among white women who are lower-income, under 50, opponents of legal abortion and non-evangelicals - the latter probably because evangelicals were a broadly pro-McCain group already.
September 9, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (81)
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What I find interesting is that the media is all over Palin regarding her Christian faith , which amounts to religious bigotry in my opinion. (Apparently, this is the only association the media and the Dems can come up with that they are trying to use to unjustly smear Palin with). While ignoring Obama's very dubious connections to, Wright, Ayers, Rezko, Pfleger, Khalidi and others, including Dr. al-Mansour,. Dr. Khalid Abdullah Tariq al-Mansour (born Donald Warden) whose 1995 book claimed that the U.S. government was planning the genocide of black Americans. Dr. al-Mansour also has been a harsh critic of Israel and has served as a major advisor to Saudi Royal family members seeking to improve and extend their influence in the United States. And according to the Social Activism Project at the University of California at Berkeley, when he was still Donald Warden, the fellow was a mentor to Black Panthers Huey Newton and Bobby Seale. Investor's Business Daily last Friday wrote a fascinating editorial about Dr. al-Mansour's assistance to Barack Obama. It is a short piece but the news it contains is explosive and certainly deserves careful attention. But, of course, the old guard media is interested only in associations that might hurt Republicans.
Posted by: Mary | Sep 9, 2008 3:41:43 PM
"across the board - excluding Democrats and liberals"? How is that 'across the board'? So if Republican women presumably favor McCain already, the movement is among Independents with particular emphasis on working class (Catholic?) women (with kids?) Can you be more specific?
Posted by: bct424 | Sep 9, 2008 3:49:57 PM
Well, there's no "old guard" left-wing media anymore, if there ever was. A good book to read would be "What Liberal Media - The Truth About Bias and the News" by Eric Alterman. As a Christian, my observation isn't that the press is "all over" Palin for her Christian faith. Instead, now that their invasive intrusion into her family seems to be over) they're looking at 1) a long string of allegations of ethical violations and just plain outright lies on her part and 2) possible extremist religious views which put her way out of the mainstream of American culture.
Posted by: Wiscon108 | Sep 9, 2008 3:52:44 PM
Maybe they are "movable" because there is no such ideological group like "White Women" so each time you sample different women, you get different answers. This might be a false demographic for the questions you are asking.
Posted by: RT | Sep 9, 2008 4:00:12 PM
If white women are moving from Obama to Palin simply because she is a woman, then they are doing a great disservice to their families and community.
It is mind-boggling that they would dismiss the issues at this time when we are at war and our economy is so f'd up. If it were up to McCain, we'll be in Iraq indefinitely...that means more of our soldiers are placed in harms way meaninglessly to protect a country that has a stronger economy than we do. FOR MOTHERS...doesn't that mean anything to you. McCain also made a comment that he hasn't retracted that bringing back the draft would be a good idea...MOTHERS, doesn't that mean anything to you? McCain and Palin talked only about themselves in their convention and never mentioned what they would do for us...PEOPLE doesn't that mean anything to you?
These people don't have a plan to get us back on the right track so they are parading Palin, a woman, to entice us women to vote for McCain. They don't have a plan to help pull us out of a bad economy, so they say that the election will be about personality.
Eight years ago, we all said "Now Bush...there's a guy I can have a beer with." Eight years later, we can't even afford the damn beer.
That's what the republicans are so good at...distracting you from what really matters...the issues. AND WOMEN if you are stupid enough to fall for it this time around, then you can't complain when your sons and daughters come home in more bodybags or you can't afford to put your children through college or let alone send them to good schools, or you can't complain when you realize you're about to lose your home to foreclosure...because you reduced yourselves to what the Republicans expected you to be...empty women who vote with their bras instead of their brains.
And as for sexism...I've never heard that term spit out so losely. It's not sexism when we question Palin's history or her ability to lead should anything happen to McCain...it's responsible. I've got the responsibility to put my children's future in the right candidate's hands, so, you're damn right I'm going to ask questions. As mothers...that's our damn job! And if we question whether Palin can handle it with 5 kids...we asked the same of John Edwards when Elizabeth announced her cancer had returned...so all you Republicans...SHUT UP!
Posted by: sandra | Sep 9, 2008 4:00:37 PM
For the white male, it's about race. If a black man who made Law Review at Harvard can't be accepted because he's only half-white, that says a lot.
For the women, it's about having a woman in the White House. Forget Roe vs. Wade and everything else the pro-choice groups calimed were so important to them.
This is all about RACE! This is White America!
Posted by: DQ | Sep 9, 2008 4:05:47 PM
I'm under 50, white, have a Bachelor's degree, earn more than $50,000 a year, am a life-long Democrat, and don't care about the abortion question, one way or another. I'm supporting McCain-Palin because I think John McCain will make a good president. The more the Obama campaign and their idiot supporters attack Sarah Palin, the better I like her.
Posted by: Another Sarah | Sep 9, 2008 4:06:27 PM
Hey Republicans...I have to comment on your assestment that the media has been sexism against Sarah Palin because they are asking if she can handle the job as VP and still be able to care for her family.
First of all...you MUST recognize that the men candidates have also been asked this of them. The one example that races to my mind is when Elizabeth Edwards revealed her cancer had come back and everyone was asking could John Edwards handle looking after his family at the same time he was running for president.
So please, please refrain from a close-minded approach that anytime we question Sarah Palin it's because we're sexist. I'm a woman and I am asking this same question because she has 5 teenage children and they are at an age where they are very impressionable...that's fair. Just like it was fair to question Edwards if he could handle running for Pres. while his wife was in her vulnerable state.
What scares me is that women might be focusing on trying to prove a point at the expense of putting our country back on the right track. The republicans are dangerous...and as a mother to be (my baby arrives in Dec.) I'm more concerned on making the point that I cannot entrust my baby's future to a party that wrecklessly thrusted us into a war that never should have been waged. I'm more concerned that the republican party for the next 8 years will countinue to harms us economically and do nothing to advance our educational system. That's what we should be focusing on.
If your focus is sexism and accusing anyone of that when we question whether or not our candidates are capable of handling the job, than you're doing a bigger disservice to your families and communities and you need to recognize that. I've got the right to ask ALL the questions of our politicians because I've got the responsiblity to my family to vote for the person that I believe will best benefit us as a country. And if the media can help me get those answers, then your dam right I'm going to listen and take advantage of that tool...not to say I won't look for other tools to help me gather info. on our candidates.
And for all you women who vote for McCain just because he's got a woman on the ticket...ask yourself this question:
will you feel good about yourselves voting for a man who would keep us in Iraq indefinitely...if so then don't complain when your sons and daughters come home in a body bag. Will you feel good about yourselves for voting for a ticket that refuses to believe we have an economic disaster...than don't complain when you lose your home, or your jobs and can't pay the bills or send your kids to college.
The republicans don't have a plan! That is why for them, this election will be about personality than issues. That's what they are good at, distracting us from what really matters. Remember this 8 years ago: "Now Bush...there's a guy I can have a beer with." Well eight years later, we can't even afford the dam beer.
Women don't reduce yourselves to what the Republicans are wanting you to be...empty women who vote with their bras instead of their brains."
WE'RE BETTER THAN THAT!!!!!!!!!
Posted by: Sandra | Sep 9, 2008 4:11:25 PM
The best choice is Hillary. It's about issues and, yes, I truly believe a woman will bring necessary leadership for this country right now. Too bad Palin is way off to the right - otherwise she's a great woman.
Posted by: sue truckowski | Sep 9, 2008 4:17:57 PM
The best choice is Hillary. It's about issues and, yes, I truly believe a woman will bring necessary leadership for this country right now. Too bad Palin is way off to the right - otherwise she's a great woman.
Posted by: sue truckowski | Sep 9, 2008 4:18:44 PM
Since Palin doesn't believe in the separation of church and state, her religious views are VERY important in this race. She will use those views to further establish policy slanted toward evangelism.
Posted by: JR | Sep 9, 2008 4:21:20 PM
How many here have ranted against Bush and his policies the last few years but are going to now vote for McCain/Palin even though they represent a continuation of those very same Bush policies? And you say "race" isn't an issue? Bull-spit.
Posted by: JR | Sep 9, 2008 4:26:02 PM
It's all moot because, as the WSJ is reporting, BHO has sent 30 (yes, 30!) lawyers to Alaska to dig up dirt on Palin. When these scumbags find anything negative, the Obama surrogates in the mainstream media are going to have a feeding frenzy on it and the election will be won by BHO in a manner reminiscent of his first Illinois legislature campaign: by dirty backdoor tactics.That guy is as dirty a politician as any I've ever seen and I've been involved in general elections since 1959 (and never previously for the Republicans).
Go McCain
Posted by: Marty | Sep 9, 2008 4:28:58 PM
I guess women like throwing their equal rights away by voting for Bush 3 and Bush 4. Odd!
Posted by: kgj | Sep 9, 2008 4:30:37 PM
JR -- a lot of Dems have shifted to Repubs in the past. That's how Reagan won. Bill Clinton brought them back. Also, people have complex opinions. Blacks as a group are fairly religious and conservative, but they back the Dems. There are a lot of "flexible" voters among whites, who do not adhere to Democratic or Republican orthodoxy. There are a lot of "national security" women who value lower taxes and the Republican stance on terror. They may want public health care and might actually be pro-choice, but they prioritize. You guys act like people are "black and white" politically, when they are not.
Posted by: Angry Black Democrat | Sep 9, 2008 4:31:00 PM
Me too. Independent voters for McCain Palin!
They represent the American majority. Race
has nothing to do with it, we supported Condi
Posted by: foxynewslady | Sep 9, 2008 4:32:07 PM
Kgj - stop it with the scare tactics. What "rights" did women as a class lose as a result of Bush? The only one I can think of is "partial birth abortion -- unless necessary to protect the woman's life." It usually is necessary to protect the woman's life. Also, there were alternatives to the procedure left in the statute.
Posted by: Angry Black Democrat | Sep 9, 2008 4:32:58 PM
Don't worry Marty. McCain is dispatching a "truth squad" to respond to the "dirt." Unlike the Democratic primaries, the Republican media (Fox, Wash Times, National Review, WSJ, etc) and blog world will tear down efforts to demonize Palin. The liberal media helped him beat down Clinton. This is a new ballgame.
Posted by: Angry Black Democrat | Sep 9, 2008 4:36:34 PM
Manfred - EnOUGh BUSHes , along with McBush and Pit Bull
Posted by: Linda,Fl | Sep 9, 2008 4:37:22 PM
Another Sarah, I agree totally that Obama has used race to his advantage in this campaign. On several occasions he told audiences that the Republicans and John McCain would say, “he doesn’t look like the other guy, his name is funny, did I mention he’s black, etc.” The problem is, I never heard John McCain, anyone on his staff, or any official in the Republican Party refer to Barack Obama’s race, the rumors about his alleged Muslim religion, his ‘funny’ name, or anything of the sort. Barak Obama was the one bringing up these issues, not John McCain. That is one thing that turned me off in his campaign, and I was, in the beginning, open to Senator Obama. For a time I truly did believe he was a new kind of politician. Then he proved he wasn’t, and he lost my support. I really think a lot of Obama supporters have invested so much energy and time into their adulation of this man that they simply cannot bring themselves to admit that they were wrong. Instead, they cling to their position, and spew vitriol at those who don’t agree with them. That’s just childish, in my opinion. I supported Obama in the beginning because I didn’t want a rerun of the Bill & Hillary Show, but now I’m casting a vote for John McCain. He’s a decent guy, and he doesn’t deserve to have his reputation and his war record trashed by the left-wing of the party. My father is a veteran, and so are two of my uncles. I don’t have much patience for people who attack men who have served their country.
Posted by: Veteran's Kid | Sep 9, 2008 4:37:30 PM
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