The Numbers

A Run at the Latest Data from ABC's Poobah of Polling, Gary Langer

Gary Langer is director of polling at ABC News, where he's covered the beat of public opinion for nearly 20 years - conducting and analyzing ABC News polls, evaluating data from other sources and setting the news division's standards for poll reporting. Langer has won two Emmy awards for ABC's reporting of public opinion polls in Iraq, and The Numbers blog was honored this year as winner of the 2008 Iowa Gallup Award for Excellent Journalism Using Polls.

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White Women and Movability

September 09, 2008 3:12 PM

A good follow-up question to our latest poll's finding on white women is whether they’ve been more changeable overall in their vote preferences in this year of the historic Clinton and Palin candidacies. The answer: Yep.

Check out the two tables below. There’ve been any number of swings among white women between majority preference for Barack Obama or John McCain – in the spring as Obama and Hillary Clinton duked it out, in the early- and mid-summer as Clinton’s intentions remained the subject of speculation, and now as Sarah Palin has joined the GOP ticket. For around one in 10 white women, it’s been a complicated race in which to choose.

There’s been far less movement among white men – they’ve consistently favored McCain by significant margins. The standard deviation (dispersion from the average) among white women has been nearly twice what it’s been among white men. It makes white women especially worth watching; since they've been moving, they could keep moving.

Interestingly, white women also have been a changeable group in past elections. In 2004, per the exit poll, they voted 55-44 percent for George W. Bush over John Kerry; in 2000, though, they divided evenly, 49-48 percent, between Bush and Al Gore. White men, by contrast, went for Bush by about 25-point margins in both those elections.

Among white women
     Obama McCain   O-M Diff
9/7    41%   53      -12
8/22   50    42       +8
7/13   47    46       +1
6/15   40    53      -13
5/11   43    51       -8
4/13   46    47       -1
3/2    51    41      +10
2/1    43    52       -9
STDEV 4.1   4.9      8.9
Among white men
     Obama McCain   O-M Diff
9/7    34%   58      -24
8/22   35    57      -22
7/13   35    56      -21
6/15   40    55      -15
5/11   41    54      -13
4/13   39    53      -14
3/2    41    52      -11
2/1    38    58      -20
STDEV 2.9   2.3      4.8

Among the differences between these groups, white women are more apt than white men to be Democrats (by an 11-point margin), more apt to be retirement-aged, less apt to be under 40 and less well-off financially (more apt to have incomes under $50K, less apt to have incomes over $100K). There are no significant differences on ideology, attention to the race, intention to vote, education or religion.

Comparing our last poll to our new one, we find movement toward McCain among white women pretty much across the board (excluding Democrats and liberals), but it’s been most pronounced among white women who are lower-income, under 50, opponents of legal abortion and non-evangelicals - the latter probably because evangelicals were a broadly pro-McCain group already.

September 9, 2008 in 2008 General Election | Permalink | User Comments (81)

User Comments

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NO OBAMA! NO OBAMA. he is not fit.

Posted by: foxynewslady | Sep 9, 2008 4:40:30 PM

The very women who fought so hard regarding roe v. wade are the very women BO decided didn't have anywhere else to go but to him. He was soooooooooo wrong.

Posted by: Kitty | Sep 9, 2008 4:42:11 PM

Wow someone using scare tactics. Sound familiar?

Posted by: kgj | Sep 9, 2008 4:49:10 PM

As a white female I am concerned that woman can dismiss the issues at hand and not see where the country is today before getting excited about a woman that has so little experience. I am independent but lean on the Democrate side most of the time. This woman's beliefs are very scary for mainstream women. Her views on absence only and not teaching sex education shows a lack of understanding of what is happening with the kids, I am a retired health teacher with 25 years experence, and know that absence only does not work. For this reason alone I would not vote for McCain and the idea that Palin would be next in line is unthinkable. I hope the media will keep telling the truth on all four and people will listen instead of just voting without thinking. We don't know much about Palin and have little time left to find out. I resent the way McCain decieded on this woman and expects us to vote for him because of her. Come on women wake up and think don't fall for an old man pushing an unknown on us just because it is a woman. I though we were smarter than this.

Posted by: rbrgood | Sep 9, 2008 4:50:08 PM

Prince Abdullah told Dr. Khalid al-mansour
Arabia wanted more influence in America?
Khalid al-Mansour, one time known as
Donald Warden has Berkeley California, black
panther associations. That was bad news for
Obama's camp.. More questionable associations
emerge daily. Community organizer of church
groups? His soft pedalling his work with his
Pastor, Jeremiah Wright? No thanks. No obama
he has no experience as a leader and he was
groomed for this candidacy by who? hmmm
American women vote for your America, the
Land of the Free and the Home of the Brave.
Women are treated better in America than any
arab country. Obama's history is unacceptable.

Posted by: foxynewslady | Sep 9, 2008 5:02:10 PM

The world is in recession. At least in America
we have an abundance of food, sources to help
people in need, women have rights, are not
forced to walk behind males, wear costumes
treated as second rate citizens. Does
the House of Saud protect women's rights?
Huh? Why not, they want influence in America
and did they fund all of Obama's education, his
4 million dollar home? He didn't buy it with
books. wake up sleeping dogs. It is time to
confront the liars or demagogues and elect
the All American Team, McCain and Palin.
We are independents for the Republicans and
we are forming another group, the Women for
the McCain/Palin ticket. Join in and learn the
truth about Obama and his history. It is no
longer secrets, the truth is emerging daily. The
archives of the UIC Library have been opened.
the graduate, Obama, Magna cum saudi is exposed.

Posted by: foxynewslady | Sep 9, 2008 5:09:38 PM

McCain's history is unacceptable. As in his history with George W. Bush.

Posted by: kgj | Sep 9, 2008 5:13:27 PM

My whole family, democrats from birth, will vote McCain/Palin. Not just because of a great woman was just added to the McCain ticket, but because 1) OBAMA IS NOT QUALIFIED. 2) Obama runs with corrupt characters. 3) Obama has no friends to speak of his character as job reference.

Obama's friends hate America and most are in jail. That makes Obama an enemy of the state.

Now that Governor Palin has been added to the ticket as VP, Obama the community organizer, looks less qualified to be president.

There's no doubt that John McCain has experience to the President.


Posted by: Mrs. Phoenix | Sep 9, 2008 5:17:04 PM

I don't believe in poll either. It is not real. Let's wait till November 4. It is the day when the American will choose their president. It is the day when we will say:

No McCain/Palin
No Bush failed policies
ENOUGH IS ENOUGH

Posted by: I.A.T smith | Sep 9, 2008 5:17:07 PM

I am a middle-age, middle-class white women and I was both a Hillary and Obama supporter. My support shifted to Obama the moment Hillary backed out of the race and he and Joe Biden will continue to have my support. Just because Sarah Palin is a woman has nothing to do with where I stand on the issues. Personally, I think tapping Palin for VP is a joke. The fact that Bush began talking about removing troops from Iraq after Obama made removal of troops from Iraq an issue, and the fact that McCain is now talking about "change" when this is what Obama has based his entire campaign on is amazing to say the least. Although I have a lot of respect for what McCain went through in the war, the rhetoric from both Bush and McCain, seems to confirm that you cannot trust what now are the McCain/Palin messages. In any case, I trust in the Change that Obama talks about and believe that cares about all Americans. I was against the war from the beginning; am part of the middle class affected by a corporation that cut health and retirement benefits to my husband who has worked for the same company for 25 years. I am pro-choice, believe in equality for everyone and am a huge supporter of the health and education changes as outlined by Obama. I hope people who are independent or don't know who they are going to vote for can manage to look at the issues and not the hype of personalities that is presented to us. Obama is smart, dedicated and articulate and would not only do great things for us in the U.S., but would be a great at diplomacy and foreign relations.

Posted by: Rose | Sep 9, 2008 5:33:15 PM

I consider this a referendum on the way the democrats treated Hillary.

It just so happens though that I'm completely excited about McCain/Palin though.

So now I have a number of great reasons for my choice.

McCain/Palin 08

Posted by: Nobama9989989 | Sep 9, 2008 5:40:25 PM

IF you are a child left behind, blame your
parents, before most of begin school, we are
already educated in some areas. We develop
learning skills at the knee of our father and
mother, how to communicate with people is
first. Our parents communicate with us, we
are taught to read and write with books and
interaction with our families. Please don't
put me in the charge of a public school. We
learned more about American History before
we entered school to have them undo our learning
not only from the Historians, but the fact we
were taken to Americas historical sights, to
Washington, we saw the Capitol Building, the
10 commandments, engraved on the walls, the
history of the Congress having church meetings
in the legislative buildings.

Posted by: foxynewslady | Sep 9, 2008 5:41:18 PM

I'm a white woman, new lawyer, my starting salary is just under $200,000. I was voting Hillary, but now I'm all about McCain/Palin.

I don't embrace either party on the issues. I admire McCain/Palin's record of reform and service and their ideas. I'm also excited to finally get the first woman vp and potential pres.

I'm a feminist, and I don't care about abortion at all. I'm tired of pro-choice feminists saying Palin is anti-woman because she's pro-life. Since when is being pro-choice a litmus test for feminism? I'm much more concerned about other issues, and can see how being pro-life doesn't mean you're an anti-feminst.

Democratic men use abortion scare tactics to try to keep womens' votes without ever having to do anything for us. It's not going to work this time!!!!

McCain/Palin 08!!!!!!!!

Posted by: I <3 McCain/Palin | Sep 9, 2008 5:48:00 PM

Rose, This is a free country and so far not socialist so you are allowed to vote for whoever you want as president and be respected for that decision. However, there are some inconsistencies in your post. Bush is not talking about pulling troops because Obama suggested it. Bush is pulling troops (to send to Afganistan) because the surge in Iraq, of which McCain supported and Obama did not, is working. They are handing over more and more provinces to Iraqi soldiers who were trained by our military.
Secondly, as stated by Biden, the presidency does not lend itself to on the job training, Obama has no foreign policy experience, and limited experience in everything else.

Posted by: S Adams | Sep 9, 2008 5:57:19 PM

Every woman I know is voting for Obama. Truth is hard to spin.

Posted by: Carolina | Sep 9, 2008 6:15:33 PM

Okay, everyone wants to base this one race, but deny it at the same time. Ask McCain's senior adviser, Nancy Pf., what she meant when she said on CNN Sunday that Obama is just carrying the water for his party.

Posted by: Vee | Sep 9, 2008 6:26:07 PM

What scares me about Palin is her reigniting the culture wars just when America was starting to at least appear to move beyond that ugly era. There is no place in Washington for someone who is so overtly religious about her politics, particularly when she has such extremist positions. If a politician actually believes that a war is God's will...specifically she said that the war effort in Iraq is "from God"...he/she should not say that out loud. It sounds, for lack of a better way of putting it, what someone in the middle east would say about the war against America. While my personal faith is deep, I DO NOT believe God involves him/herself in wars nor favors one group over another. We are fighting that type of extremism, not trying to emulate it!!!!

Posted by: Jessica Ferry | Sep 9, 2008 6:49:21 PM

The rebulican party seems to be getting the gains they have by promising no new taxes or not raising taxes,well it is pretty dumb to think that with the economy being in the shape it is in that we can get by without raising them.we cannot keep boring from other countries to keep our heads barely above water,to keep us in Iraq with 140,000 troops still there doesn't sound like the Bush administration is sure the surge is going to keep.Why does McCain and Palin keep saying the surge has worked and that the war has been won.It is not won nor will it be such until we don't have to keep troops there in substantial numbers.The republicans are painting a rose colored picture but if you look very carefully you will see it start to fade.We don't no what Palin is really about until the debates.That is if the media is not afraid to question her.There is going to be some that will bring up sexism but if she wants to run she should be questioned just as Hillary was.She came out swinging like she could stand up to the world so she should be able to take some questions.She is going to have to deal with much more than a few questios from reporters.

Posted by: damehen | Sep 9, 2008 6:57:53 PM

McCain offers what Americans really want: a genuine commitment to bipartisanship and unity. Respect for people of both parties, as partially evidenced by a commitment to cabinet of mixed party. Pride in what we accomplish, but an expectation that we can do even better. Accountability, so that the best ideas achieve success and the bad ideas don't. Obama is inspiring that he has a vision of a new direction, but sadly much of it so far is polarized and simply "anti Bush" rather than a method of reconciliation or a pathway to unity. One of McCain's central tenets of his "Country First" agenda is not a nationalistic cry, but rather an admonition: "Don't be selfish." These elections seem to almost demand that the candidates be extremists; I am glad that one party put forth a moderate centrist. I would much rather Americans pull together than have a tug-of-war.

Posted by: HawkTheSlayer | Sep 9, 2008 7:03:32 PM

Anyone that knows me knows that I usually keep my opinions to myself …at least on things like religion and politics. I’m a 28 year old white female from a small town in NC. I do mortgage lending for a local bank, have been married for 8 years and have no kids.

I tell you all of this in order for you to realize that I’m a pretty average person.

I’m sitting on my couch today September 9th, 2008 sick with a cold and watching ABC News with Charles Gibson. I am absolutely astounded at what I just saw. So astounded in fact that if I hadn’t just looked up what I saw at www.abcnews.com I would almost believe I had taken too much cold medicine.

I’m referring to a segment that just aired in which the topic of discussion is the shift in the polls of white women voters. More importantly, I’m referring to a statistic that was mentioned. In a nutshell it was stated that people who are voting based on the issues Obama is leading and that people who are voting on “personal quality” McCain is leading.

It was also mentioned that in the very close election of 2000 Gore lead in people voting on issues and Bush lead in people voting on “personal quality”.

Am I the only one completely outraged that the American public would be so ignorant as to vote on “personal quality”?

I could go on and on about how this is simply insane and a complete embarrassment to the voters of America. However, instead I will make a simple plea:

Please Please Please be an informed voter. Whether you vote for Obama, McCain, or you write someone in - please vote for the issues and the person that you think can best serve America. Don’t vote for someone because they chose a female VP running mate or because someone would be the first black president. Please be an educated voter - even if you just read up on 1 or 2 of the most important issues to you. Vote for a VALID reason.

Posted by: Nicole | Sep 9, 2008 7:50:01 PM

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