The Numbers
A Run at the Latest Data from ABC's Poobah of Polling, Gary Langer
Gary Langer is director of polling at ABC News, where he's covered the beat of public opinion for nearly 20 years - conducting and analyzing ABC News polls, evaluating data from other sources and setting the news division's standards for poll reporting. Langer has won two Emmy awards for ABC's reporting of public opinion polls in Iraq, and The Numbers blog was honored this year as winner of the 2008 Iowa Gallup Award for Excellent Journalism Using Polls.
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Attack Blowback
October 12, 2008 6:02 PM
The McCain campaign’s more aggressive tone is prompting pushback from the public: Registered voters by a broad margin now believe John McCain is more focused on attacking his opponent than on addressing the issues in the 2008 presidential election.
Barack Obama, by contrast, is perceived even more widely as sticking to the issues, this new ABC News/Washington Post poll finds – a striking point of differentiation between the two. More differences will be reported in the full release of this ABC/Post poll on ABCNews.com at 12:01 a.m. and Good Morning America on Monday morning.
While McCain’s image as the more negative of the two is not new, it’s sharpened considerably, coinciding with his campaign’s more pointed criticisms of Obama in the last few weeks, including Sarah Palin's accusation that Obama’s been "palling around with terrorists."
Registered voters by a 24-point margin, 59-35 percent, now say McCain is more focused on attacking his opponent rather than addressing the issues. That’s grown from a roughly even 48-45 percent split on this question in late August.
There's far less criticism of the tone of Obama's campaign: Registered voters by 68-26 percent say he's mainly addressing the issues, not attacking his opponent, a slightly more positive rating than in August.
Candidate is mainly:
Addressing Attacking
the issues his opponent
Now:
McCain 35% 59
Obama 68 268/22:
McCain 45% 48
Obama 64 29
PARTISAN – It’s noteworthy that Republicans, despite their general antipathy toward Obama, don't broadly see him as running a negative campaign; they divide essentially evenly on the question, 44-46 percent. Democrats, by contrast, overwhelmingly say McCain's going negative, 80-16 percent.
The deciding factor, as ever in presidential politics, is independents. They see McCain as mainly attacking his opponent, by 61-33 percent, but Obama as mainly addressing the issues, by 68 -26 percent.
Obama is mainly:
Addressing Attacking
the issues his opponent
Democrats 87% 12
Independents 68 26
Republicans 46 44McCain is mainly:
Addressing Attacking
the issues his opponent
Democrats 16% 80
Independents 33 61
Republicans 62 32
GROUPS – Nearly 9 in 10 African-Americans say McCain’s been attacking Obama more than addressing the issues, but likely of greater concern to McCain’s campaign is that 54 percent of whites say so as well. So do a majority of men (57 percent), as well as six in 10 women and nearly two-thirds of moderates.
Among swing voter groups, beyond independents, 58 percent of white Catholics and 59 percent of married women alike say McCain’s been mainly attacking his opponent rather than addressing the issues. So do 56 percent of non-evangelical white Protestants and 57 percent of veterans, a natural affinity group for McCain.
Far fewer in any of these groups say Obama’s been mainly on the attack – a quarter of men and women alike, including married women; fewer than three in 10 whites, white Catholics and non-evangelical white Protestants; two in 10 moderates; and a quarter of veterans. Even among core McCain groups such as conservatives and evangelical white Protestants, more say Obama is mainly addressing the issues than attacking his opponent.
For McCain, finally, among the biggest changes is the result among onetime supporters of Hillary Clinton against Obama – the sought-after Clinton Democrats. In August 59 percent in this group said McCain was mainly attacking Obama, not addressing the issues. Today, 74 percent of Clinton Democrats say so.
Click here for a pdf with details. These results are from a detailed new ABC/Post poll on the election and the mood of the country; for full results check back online at 12:01 a.m., and tomorrow morning on Good Morning America.
October 12, 2008 in 2008 General Election | Permalink | User Comments (373)
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Even Bill Kristol called the McCain campaign "pathetic" today.
Posted by: bubba | Oct 12, 2008 6:59:32 PM
The tactic is to attack. Then, accuse your opponent, claim foul, demand an apology, all to make it seem that you are on the high moral ground. This is text book GOP strategy. McCain does not deserve an apology. Furthermore, McCain should stop staging questions at townhall--abusing or paying people with comments and questions is pathetic. This country is in real trouble and deserves better.
Posted by: Tasha | Oct 12, 2008 7:01:27 PM
@ Jim, you have got to be joking. The fact that Obama is a senator means nothing. There are reports that he has violated the Logan Act by trying to negotiate with the Iraqis on his Mid East trip. There are reports that he was a direct participant in the ACORN training process and taught volunteers how to pressure banks into giving mortgages to people who could not afford them.
THIS is someone that you think is qualified to be president?
Ha, I wouldn't vote for him, for dog-catcher.
************
@ justahousewife -- you are right on target.
Posted by: justataxpayer | Oct 12, 2008 7:01:29 PM
Republicans:
The rule of thumb is-
Don't go to the grocery store when you're hungry. Let's apply that to this case, don't go to the polls angry. The moral of the story is AVOID IMPULSIVITY!
2000: Republicans were fired up against Gore (just like they are now)
2004: Republicans were fired up against Kerry (just like they are now)
One question: how is that decision working out for you?
All I ask is that you remove the anger, remove the fear and ask yourself. "the last time I was passionate like this, did I make the right decision?"
Posted by: letsvotealready | Oct 12, 2008 7:02:19 PM
At a time of great anxiety and worry, McCain/Palin seemingly offer only fear, hatred, and more division. Sen. Obama is far from perfect. But Obama/Biden continue to appeal to our better angels. We need a President with "the sun on his face." This poll shows that the the people agree.
Posted by: B. Bear | Oct 12, 2008 7:02:48 PM
WE CAN NOT GIVE , ACCORN MEMBERS PERMISSIONS TO COMMIT VOTE FRAUD, IDENTITY THEFT AND FORGERY. IMMEDIATELY ACTIONS TO ESTABLISH AND AVOID BRIBERY ON THE REGISTRATION OF FAKED APPLICATIONS. THERE IS NO DOUBTS THE ORGANIZED CRIME IS BEHIND GOING THROUGH OUR SERIOUS PROBLEMS OF UNEMPLOYMENTS, ECONOMIC FACTORS,AND POVERTY AND OTHERS RELIGIOUS CONNOTATIONS NATIONWIDE.////
Posted by: ENE M DIAZ | Oct 12, 2008 7:02:58 PM
ahahahahaha Americans are afraid of their elected Senator "Barak Obama" lo siento mucho
Posted by: law | Oct 12, 2008 7:04:47 PM
Obama talks about the issues??? WHEN? All he does is whine about McCain's attacks and that Obama will bring change. He never says what kind of change...but he says he will. I've only seen 3 of Obama's ads and they ALL are negative and don't talk about the issues. Democrats are just believing what Obama is saying...Obama is a great salesman and he is selling people a load of crap and they just repeat what he says. ABC interviewed three women of Friday after an Obama rally and they couldn't name ANYTHING on why they were voting for him. People have NO idea of his platform. Obama talks a great talk but he has no experience or legislative accomplishments to back it up. Obama is just a typical politician that is being followed blindly by Democrats and people who don't educate themselves on the issues.
Posted by: Mike | Oct 12, 2008 7:04:58 PM
Basically, All that Obama has hung around with are communists and terrorists and muslims that regularly run scams either by shaking down businesses, defrauding foundations, or defrauding taxpayers. Obama gets in a position (or is gotten in by higher ups like Rezko and Ayers) and then he turn starts sending cash to various organizations that his handlers or family members run. Its sad. Obama is crook people.
Posted by: chattyway | Oct 12, 2008 7:05:31 PM
I'm sure McCain is totally panicking that his character assassination techniques aren't working, and most Americans are embarrassed by the tone his rallies have taken on.
Since he's the wrong side of all the issues, what else can he do but smear?
Posted by: K8-EEE | Oct 12, 2008 7:07:03 PM
I cannot believe anyone in their right mind would vote for the McCain/Palin Ticket! Name calling, lieing, etc., this has been uncalled for! McCain may have had a chance if he had chosen someone of substance, instead of Sarah Palin, who has lied about so many things and now has even been found to have abused her power as Governor of Alaska! She needs to go back to Alaska and let them impeach her!!! She is not qualified to be a leader of our great country. I do not know what McCain was thinking to put her on his ticket! I am a 67 year old female and would love to have seen Hilary Clinton in office but Sarah Palin is NO Hilary Clinton! Obama is very intellegent and along with Joe Biden, experienced in government,they should be our President/Vice President, Men who we can be proud of---
Posted by: lola | Oct 12, 2008 7:09:57 PM
I think Americans are above scurrilous attacks, and can smell a rat a mile away when a candidate tries to muddy the pool with personal tirades. If McCain had focused on improving the lives of Americans, he might have had a shot, but it's too late.
Posted by: rob | Oct 12, 2008 7:10:24 PM
I Would not change a thing McCain. No point in trying to look Presidential, Why look sensible. There is no point in having any issues to support. Just keep on doing what you do, we can wing it. We can be Mavericks with you, aimless rebel without a cause, immature tricks are just what this country needs.
Oh, tell me again about the tax break I am going to get on those Capital Gains I do not have.
Posted by: Thinking | Oct 12, 2008 7:11:06 PM
Thinking - HA HA! Excellent point.
Posted by: rob | Oct 12, 2008 7:12:46 PM
Maybe the McCain/Palin campaign will look at these numbers and decide to get back on the issues. ;-)
Posted by: francheska | Oct 12, 2008 7:13:19 PM
It seems that McCain's decision to focus on attacks instead of issues is having an impact, although it's probably not the one he expected. From editorandpublisher: "Barack Obama picked up at least 12 newspaper endorsements this weekend, including six in swing states Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina and Missouri. John McCain, as far as we know, gained none." Obama/Biden '08!
Posted by: sawrad | Oct 12, 2008 7:13:24 PM
Really? Bill Ayers was voted citizen of the year in Chicago? I wonder if he puts that plaque next to the one he received from Hugo Chavez for education reform.
Posted by: justahousewife | Oct 12, 2008 7:17:55 PM
I guess it depends on what you believe the issues are. I believe that Obama's allies and shady friends are a major issue. I believe that ACORN and Obama's ties to this voter fraud organization are a major issue. I believe that Obama's record on abortion and gun rights are major issues. I believe that Obama's unwillingness to release his college records, his medical history, his birth certificate and other documents are major issues. If asking questions and demanding answers from someone running for President is an "attack" then I am glad McCain is finally doing it because the media sure isn't.
Posted by: dlc | Oct 12, 2008 7:20:25 PM
Look, McChicken is cooked! Well done Please!
Posted by: jon | Oct 12, 2008 7:20:43 PM
The only thing that McCain has done wrong is to bring on Palin as is running mate. He should have picked Lieberman as I beieve that he wanted to. The problem was unenthusiastic support from the conservative base, and she brought that. The problem is she is not qualified and has excited the conservative base, but not the moderate republicans (yes, there are moderate republicans and democrats) and has not done anything to bring on independents and the moderate swing voters of both sides. I feel bad for McCain because he was almost forced to chose her. However, he is clearly the more experienced and has a stronger love of country than Obama.
Posted by: Faye | Oct 12, 2008 7:21:47 PM
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