The Numbers
A Run at the Latest Data from ABC's Poobah of Polling, Gary Langer
Gary Langer is director of polling at ABC News, where he's covered the beat of public opinion for nearly 20 years - conducting and analyzing ABC News polls, evaluating data from other sources and setting the news division's standards for poll reporting. Langer has won two Emmy awards for ABC's reporting of public opinion polls in Iraq, and The Numbers blog was honored this year as winner of the 2008 Iowa Gallup Award for Excellent Journalism Using Polls.
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Battlegrounds, Reds and Blues
October 22, 2008 7:09 AM
Our latest tracking poll results underscore Barack Obama’s advantage on the electoral map – both in comparison with past years and in terms of this year’s battleground states.
In the 16 states identified by the ABC News Political Unit as battlegrounds, Obama leads John McCain by 54-43 percent among likely voters in our ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll. That’s a party switch from the last two elections: George W. Bush won these same 16 states in 2004 and 2000 alike. And in 1992 and 1996 Bill Clinton won these 16, and the White House.
Cutting it down to the eight states rated by our Political Unit as tossups this year (Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia) Obama has a 52-45 percent advantage.
The past is not predictive, and history is littered with alleged bellwethers that, like all statistical bubbles, eventually popped. But Obama’s aggregate lead in these highly contested states underscores his advantage in national polls and in states alike. (It’s noteworthy, as well, because likely voters in these battleground states are disproportionately white, compared with those in the less highly contested states - 83 percent vs. 72 percent.)
Indeed, Obama’s current 11-point advantage in the 16 battleground states is larger than the margins by which they ultimately were won in any of the last four elections – Bush by 5 points in 2004, Bush by 4 in 2000, Clinton by 6 in 1996 and Clinton by 2 in 1992.
Another comparison to past years also may be instructive. In 2004 George W. Bush won 30 “red” states by a 14-point margin overall, 57-43 percent. Today Obama and McCain are dead even – 49-49 – in those same 30 states. (This excludes Alaska, where we don’t have tracking data.) In the 2004 “blue” states, meanwhile, John Kerry won by 9 points – but Obama’s now ahead by 18 (excluding Hawaii).
It’s a similar story if we jump back to 2000: That year Bush won his red states by 12 points; now it’s essentially tied (McCain +1) in those same states. And while Al Gore won his 2000 blue states by 12 points, Obama now leads in those states – again, by an 18-point margin.
2008 Exit polls
tracking Dem-Rep
Obama-McCain 2004 2000
08 battleground 54-43 47-52 46-5004 red states 49-49 43-57
04 blue states 57-39 54-4500 red states 48-49 43-55
00 blue states 57-39 54-42
October 22, 2008 in 2008 General Election | Permalink | User Comments (38)
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The Republican voters, YPM (Young Political Majors), has been caught at voter fraud.
Polls or no polls, red state or blue, the voters will need to be careful this election as there is crooked stuff going on. CNN reports an old white man casting his vote for Obama that kept trying to record his vote as a vote for McCain. It was reported to the election official who had the man keep trying until his vote showed up as one for Obama.
Obama/Biden 08!
Posted by: Common Sense | Oct 22, 2008 8:07:28 AM
Posted by: Common Sense | Oct 22, 2008 8:07:28 AM
Everyone voting for Obama needs to make sure that is the way it is recorded.
Posted by: Jwench | Oct 22, 2008 8:20:00 AM
Mcshame need to just go lie down. Im sure hes disoriented again. All of these polls showing hes washed up are certain to take their toll on an old fella. He just is too grumpy and flustered to be POTUS and its scary to imagine his sidekick anywhere near the button to the nukes.
Posted by: Jo | Oct 22, 2008 8:20:22 AM
The GOP is involved in voter fraud? EGADS!!!..lol
Posted by: Jwench | Oct 22, 2008 8:34:18 AM
Pray for Obama! Pray for his Grandmother. Sorry John McCain you're just too angry and to scary to be our next President.
Posted by: Lisa | Oct 22, 2008 10:46:40 AM
I am astonished that Obama's margin is not MUCH larger. The McCain campaign has set an all-time record of slimey, unethical, unsupported of assertions to discredit his apponent. The American public has already experienced the damage 8 yrs of trickery; they are too smart to be swifted again.
Posted by: HisUgliness | Oct 22, 2008 10:46:52 AM
Kind of like the 200,000 in Ohio, and the 30,000+ illegal registrations in Florida. I look at it like the DemP being way to desperate to win. When this country is all the way in the ground to bad the distribution of wealth is going come back and bite all of us, look no further than South America to find out that's a really bad idea.
Posted by: azson | Oct 22, 2008 11:03:50 AM
Democrats are kings at voter fraud.
Remember the fake registrations, 110% voter turnout, felons voting, keeping polls open even after they have closed in rest of the state.
Voter fraud synonymous is Democrats and they are masters at it.
Posted by: Greg h | Oct 22, 2008 11:09:37 AM
I'm not so worried about "illegal registrations" (which have by and large been caught already) as I am the consistent, persistent vote blocking by the republicans. This absolutely has to stop, and I want to see ALL media focused on this between now and election day. NOT THIS TIME, NOT AGAIN.
Posted by: Sharon Lynn Farley | Oct 22, 2008 11:16:24 AM
I agree Sharon, we should all remember how the republicans blocked the vote recount in Florida. They stole the election in 2000 and used OUR Supreme Court (Republican dominated) to stop the vote count. They will stoop to any tactic to retain the Presidency. It's hard to understand that all voters don't understand this fact.
Posted by: Rob Lee | Oct 22, 2008 11:41:13 AM
while the poll numbers look good for Obama, it can all change if enough people don't vote or, as they have in the past, and continue to do this year, Republican politicians find ways to suppress the vote through fraudulent and racist means. In Philadelphia, the Republican party has sent around fliers to Black areas saying that folks with unpaid parking tickets won't be allowed to vote - this is false. In Colorado and Indiana there are attempts to purge voter rolls for minor infractions such as not checking off a box on the registration form. This is where the danger is to our FINALLY having a lawful and fair election.
Posted by: Susan F | Oct 22, 2008 12:50:02 PM
The polls in OH and FL worry me. McCain is inching his way back in and we need to get out the vote in both those states to make sure Obama wins by a large enough EC margin to shut down any attempt to contest this election.
Keep focused! Get out and vote in Ohio and Florida for Obama/Biden!!!!!
Don't let New Hampshire happen all over again!
Posted by: Greg in MN | Oct 22, 2008 1:17:18 PM
I'm from Ohio, and I already voted via absentee ballot for Obama.
Strange that though I went through the same process of requesting an absentee ballot four years ago, I never received one so I couldn't vote. This time I applied months ahead of time. If you ask me, I don't think George Bush won either of the previous two elections fairly!
EVERY Obama supporter has to vote if we want to win!!!
Posted by: Jennifer | Oct 22, 2008 2:48:55 PM
Let's go Florida and Virginia....we're counting on you. Your vote counts! Help us get Obama there. Obama 08
Be a part in HISTORY! Let's show them some real numbers!!
Posted by: Tanya | Oct 22, 2008 3:30:13 PM
Ohio, be a part of HISTORY -- Vote Obama
Posted by: Tanya | Oct 22, 2008 3:33:36 PM
Media needs to report the news not try to manipulate and create news
Posted by: Ben | Oct 22, 2008 4:02:56 PM
wow, when will people stop sounding so negative and pathetic?! were all americans here, what ever happened to unity in our country?! remember 911?! it seems too many people forget! its such a shame that theres so much bashing, the dems are just as guilty if not more then the reps! theres voting fraud in NJ from them, 1 guy in the news admitted to signing his name 73 times on a democratic,registration form!!! heeelloo!
wake up america, this is our country here, we need someone in the White House with experience! unfortantely, Obama will prob win, and to me its a scary thing.....
Posted by: connie | Oct 22, 2008 4:30:51 PM
Ohio. Vote for MCCAIN*PALIN. Obama is one shady character that has absolutely no experience. He's just one smooth talker. Not to be trusted!!!
Posted by: OHIOGAL | Oct 22, 2008 5:15:50 PM
I think that a lot of good people will stay home because the news media are very liberal and have alreay annointed Obama as President. Lets remember one thing if Gore would have won his home state of Tennessee Florida would not have mattered. Shame on the media for not telling the publid how many people were polled.
Posted by: linda | Oct 22, 2008 5:27:25 PM
Okay nobody mentions that Susan Eisenhower (President Eisenhower R granddaughter) endorses Obama, William F. Buckley an ultra conservative son endorses Obama and of course Colin Powell. I guess there are some republicans that do their homework and vote with their conscience.
Posted by: toby darling | Oct 22, 2008 10:06:44 PM
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