The Numbers

A Run at the Latest Data from ABC's Poobah of Polling, Gary Langer

Gary Langer is director of polling at ABC News, where he's covered the beat of public opinion for nearly 20 years - conducting and analyzing ABC News polls, evaluating data from other sources and setting the news division's standards for poll reporting. Langer has won two Emmy awards for ABC's reporting of public opinion polls in Iraq, and The Numbers blog was honored this year as winner of the 2008 Iowa Gallup Award for Excellent Journalism Using Polls.

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Do You Know This Candidate?

October 29, 2008 7:20 AM

Barack Obama and John McCain alike have made strides since June in acquainting likely voters with their positions. The difference: For Obama’s supporters, it looks much more likely to matter.

More than three-quarters of likely voters in out ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll feel they know at least a good amount about the candidates’ positions on the issues, up 18 points for McCain and 21 points for Obama since the general election campaign got underway. That’s part of what campaigns are for.

But the importance likely voters place on those issue positions is not the same. Forty-five percent say the candidates’ positions on the issues are more important than their personal qualities – and they’re a very broadly pro-Obama group, favoring him by 67-30 percent. 

Fifty-three percent, however, say either that the candidates personal qualities are more important, or that the two are equally important (42 and 11 percent, respectively) – and this group favors McCain by 14 points, 55-41 percent.

That may be what McCain’s campaign manager, Rick Davis, had in mind when he told The Washington Post in early September that what mattered in the race wasn’t issues but the voters’ “composite view” of the candidates. From McCain’s perspective that makes sense. From Obama’s, not so much.

Another approach to the data reinforces that conclusion. Among likely voters who feel they know at least a good amount about Obama’s positions, he leads by 56-40 percent. Among those who know at least that much about McCain, it’s a 51-46 percent McCain-Obama race.

That effect also appears among the subset of likely voters who feel they know a “great deal” about each candidate. Those who feel they know a great deal about Obama’s positions support him by a 2-1 margin, 64-31 percent. Those who know a great deal about McCain’s favor him by a smaller 8-point margin, 52-44 percent.

These results point to two conclusions about current strategy. One is that the McCain campaign portrayal of Obama as an unknown quantity may be aimed at breaking down the link between feeling informed about Obama’s positions and supporting him. The other is that Obama’s heavy advertising campaign, including his half-hour network television ads tonight, seems aimed at building up that very same link.

…and a Look at Movables

Another subject of interest, since we’re swimming in data these days, is what we call movable voters. Twelve percent of likely voters overall (using all 12 nights of our tracking poll), they’re those who are either outright undecided (just 2 percent) or who have a preference but haven’t definitely made up their minds (10 percent more).

Who are they? How movable? Here’s a sketch:

- Movables split about evenly between being highly movable - either undecided or saying there’s a “good chance” they’ll change their minds (7 percent) - and those who say it’s “pretty unlikely” they’ll change, 5 percent.

- They split by 37-34 percent between McCain and Obama, with 7 percent saying “neither” and 20 percent no opinion (based on the four nights of tracking data we released last night).

- Highly movables go 31-25 percent McCain-Obama, 13 percent neither, 29 percent no opinion.

- Unlikely movables, by contrast, split 50-49 percent Obama-McCain - more decisive, as you can see.

- Movability peaks in groups less rooted in partisanship: independents (17 percent movable overall, 11 percent highly), moderates (15 percent overall, 9 percent highly), white Catholics (15 percent overall, 8 percent highly) and white mainline Protestants (15 percent overall, 9 percent highly). 

- They’re also less engaged. Just 45 percent of movables are following the campaign very closely, compared with 68 percent of likely voters who’ve definitely decided on a candidate. So if these are folks Obama’s aiming at in his TV specials tonight – well, it’s not at all clear how apt they’ll be to tune in.

October 29, 2008 in 2008 General Election | Permalink | User Comments (42)

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McCain’s campaign manager, Rick Davis, had in mind when he told The Washington Post in early September that what mattered in the race wasn’t issues but the voters’ “composite view” of the candidates.
=======================
Exactly! Who cares about those pesky "issues". What does THAT have to do with being Presidenet anyway?

As long as we can make this election about secret Muslims, secret terroroists, and secret socialists, our guy will win.

Posted by: From the Right Wing | Oct 29, 2008 7:32:32 AM

I still don't know what either candidate intends to do about the huge deficit being left by Bush and the Republicans.

Posted by: Joel | Oct 29, 2008 7:45:39 AM

We've had over a year to learn about each candidate. If you don't know them yet, you probably aren't interested.

These candidates are polar opposites.

McCain represents the old way of doing things. Big businesss first, the middle class if he gets around to it. He suggests the same direction we've gone for 8 years. If you like what has happened in the last 8 years, vote McCain.

Obama represents a new direction for our nation. A new emphasis on the middle class instead of the corporation. And a chance to restore America's credibility in the world. And a vision of a government that is looking out for everyone, not just the wealthy.

All McCain has offered is more fear and division. And how did that work out for our nation over the last 8 years?

Obama is the change we need!

Posted by: No truly | Oct 29, 2008 7:46:03 AM

I still don't know what either candidate intends to do about the huge deficit being left by Bush and the Republicans.
====================
Both have proposed policy that is WAY beyond our budget. Sad, but true.

However, McCain's plan actually costs MORE than Obama's.

Changes proposed by Obama’s campaign would mean the national debt would grow by $5.7 trillion over 10 years, while proposals spelled out by McCain’s campaign would add $10.9 trillion, according to the Tax Policy Center.

Posted by: Dave in VA | Oct 29, 2008 7:48:50 AM

Former Sen. Bob Kerrey of Nebraska, an Obama supporter, writes in The New York Post about Obama, "a hypocrite is a person who puts on a false appearance of virtue -- who acts in contradiction to his or her stated beliefs or feelings. And that, it seems to me, is what we are doing now."

Obama has done this during his entire campaign.

Posted by: MaryD | Oct 29, 2008 7:57:47 AM

MaryD,

A hypocrite is a person who calls his opponent a Socialist when he knows that charge to be false.

Is John McCain today willing to propose the end of all redistributionist government policies, including:

A) Social Security
B) Medicare
C) Unemployment insurance
D) All local sales taxes.
E) All local property taxes.
F) Federal funds to Alaska, which is number 1 in terms of federal pork, receiving a whopping THREE times more per person than Illinois!

Posted by: John | Oct 29, 2008 8:14:38 AM

John - if it were up to the Republicans or the Libertarians - they'd do away with all the social safety nets and millions of Americas would drop into abject poverty while the rich would become the uber-rich. America would become a 3rd world nation and China or India would be the next superpower. Look - the Republican mantra is "Don't tax me" and "Let the market decide". Well - we let the market decide and it decided to run amok. They know they cannot win this election. And the reason is - Americans are as mad as hell and aren't going to take it anymore!!!!!

Posted by: Bob | Oct 29, 2008 9:28:53 AM

Personal qualities??? To heck with that! Give me the guy who will change this nation. We've already had Bush who people said "He's the guy I'd like to have a beer with". Sometimes people are incredibly stupid and naive.

Posted by: Bob | Oct 29, 2008 9:31:29 AM

Do we really want another depression--

The Great Depression became what it was not because of the starting conditions, but mostly because of bad decisions made along the way. Japan didn't mimic the U.S. policies of higher taxes. The Japanese government kept tariffs low, didn't raise taxes, and actually cut taxes in the mid-1930s. Although the Japanese economy was affected by the events in the rest of the world, like everyone else, statistics like industrial production actually show more growth during the 1930s than during the 1920s. -----Obama's plan--He wants a 33% increase in the tax rates on capital gains and dividends, an increase of 16% to 32% in the top payroll tax rate, reinstatement of the death tax with a 45% top rate, and a new payroll tax on employers estimated at 7% to help finance his health insurance plan. He's also contending for higher tariffs under his protectionist policies.Finally, he would increase corporate taxes by 25%, though American businesses already face the second-highest marginal tax rates in the industrialized world, thus directly harming manufacturing and job creation while weakening demand for the dollar.

Posted by: amazed801 | Oct 29, 2008 9:31:41 AM

Hello,
What happened to the right to free speech? You have NO problem with the rights of free speech when it comes to John McCain. Obama's far left radical views do matter to some Americans! You need to ask the LA Times why they won't release the Obama / PLO 2003 tape! You need to ask them; do you plan to release the tape before the election? The public has the right to know all the views of the possible next president of these great United States of America! I am having problems with Obama’s past and I would like to know more on this tape and why the LA Times won’t release it. Are they being BIAS as most of you in the media have been? What are they hiding? If the tape is the same as they wrote about in April then WHY NOT RELEASE IT.
Thank you,
BK

Posted by: BK News | Oct 29, 2008 9:36:25 AM

Which face is McSame wearing, maverick, reformer. Bush's best friend...now that is a lying hypocrite

Posted by: Shayla | Oct 29, 2008 9:44:16 AM

You may not like or hate BUSH, but OBAMA just says whatever to get votes, look at what he did vote on.

Here's Obama July 7th in St. Louis.

OBAMA SAID: If Senator McCain wants a debate about taxes in this campaign, then it is a debate I have (sic) happy to have, because if you're a family making less than $250,000 a year, my plan will not raise your taxes.

(LATER in the campaign -- this is just recently -- Obama reduced the figure.)

OBAMA SAID: If you have a job, pay taxes, and make less than $200,000 a year, you'll get a tax cut.

(So $250,000 has become $200,000. When Obama gets in office he will lower it to under $42,000 just like his vote in the Illinois Senate. Where he voted to raise taxes on anyone making $42,000 or more a year. Yes, thankfully the bill did not get passed, but Obama wants EVERYONE to pay taxes! Obama is the lying hypocrite if you believe he won't raise taxes on you!)

10-28-08 Joe Biden in a TV interview on WNEP-TV, Channel 16 in Scranton Wilkes-Barre lowered it again.

BIDEN said: It should go like it used to. It should go to middle-class people, people making under $150,000 a year.

If you want to hear video clips go to Fox news and see the truth.

Obama/Biden will raise taxes on everyone! They think "it's the right thing to do" said Biden

Obama/Biden want to "share the wealth"
Obama said this lots in his first book. He wants to create a socialist America where your money is given to the government where he can SPEND MORE AND MORE. He wants to kill Capitalism and kill the "American Dream" of making more money and Freedom.

Posted by: Mel | Oct 29, 2008 10:05:59 AM

Rush Limbaugh admits that he’s conservative biased. A few other reporters need to admit their bias as well.

- 73% of the American people favor private ownership of firearms. Obama is strongly opposed.
- Most Americans want to close our borders. Obama wants open borders and Nafta.
- Almost all Americans want to eliminate our dependence on foreign oil. Obama voted for offshore drilling but not within 50 miles of the coast. He opposes nuclear power, clean coal research and his friend/mentor Ted Kennedy already shut down one wind generation project.
- Most Americans want to keep what they earn. Obama admits his “spread the wealth” plan.
- Obama pushes his plan to tax the wealthy knowing it will be passed on to the poor and middle class in the form of higher prices.

Americans who listen to liberal media and a charismatic candidate will vote for Obama.
Americans who take the time to learn issues will probably vote for McCain.

Posted by: Oonogil | Oct 29, 2008 10:51:06 AM

WHERE ARE THE MEDICAL RECORDS PROMISED BY SARAH PALIN?

Posted by: Truth Matters | Oct 29, 2008 11:08:00 AM

Bob in answer to your 9:28 post

If Obama wins the election it will be because Americans are dumb as hell and aren’t going to think anymore. Charisma means more than facts. Warren Buffett, Bill Gates and many other “ultra rich” as you call them, are Democrats. They don’t care how much you raise taxes, they have teams of lawyers to take care of that and they just raise prices to cover the rest. In the end the tax will be paid by the working and middle class. Always has been, always will be.

The question is how much is spent. There is no way Obama can pay for all the things he is promising without raising taxes on the working people or cutting defense spending to dangerously low levels. Every time we do that we are attacked. 1941 and 2001 are examples.

Unless you are one of the “ultra rich” or a welfare recipient you will not benefit from an Obama presidency. If you are in the middle with the rest of us, Obama is your worst nightmare.

Posted by: Oonogil | Oct 29, 2008 11:18:20 AM

I AM DISAPPOINTED IN BOTH CANDIDATES AND OUR GOVERNMENT FOR DODGING THE ISSUE OF IMMIGRATION. THEY DO NOT HAVE TO LIVE IN THE SAME COMMUNITIES WITH THEM, THEY DON'T HAVE TO WORK WITH THEM, THEY DON'T HAVE TO SHOP FOR FOOD WITH THEM, ETC. OUR HOMES AND OUR LIVES HAVE BEEN CHANGED BY OUR GOVERNMENTS "TURN YOUR HEAD" ATTITUDE. MOST UPPER INCOME PEOPLE WANT "MORE BANG FOR YOUR BUCK" WITH LOW WAGES AND LONG HOURS OF WORK THESE IMMIGRANTS PROVIDE. THEY FINALLY RAIDED A PLANT IN OUR CITY , AFTER COMPLAINTS FOR TWO YEARS, AND TOOK 300 WORKERS OUT. PEOPLE WERE LINED UP, UNEMPLOYED AMERICANS, THE NEXT DAY TO TRY TO GET A JOB. IT GOES TO SHOW THAT THEY ARE NOT JUST TAKING JOBS THAT NOBODY ELSE WANTS. IF THESE PEOPLE ARE WORRIED ABOUT THEIR CHILDREN, WHO DIDN'T ASK TO BE HERE ILLEGALLY, THEY SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR THAT. THEY ALL HAVE CELL PHONES TO MAKE CALLS ANY OTHER TIME. PLEASE HELP US REGAIN OUR PRIDE IN OUR COMMUNITIES AND OUR PROPERTY VALUES. THANKS.

Posted by: JUDY | Oct 29, 2008 11:47:02 AM

Sarah Palin is insinuating that Obama is a socialist because he wants to "spread the wealth". It's ironic that in Alaska, all the residents receive a share of the oil companies profits. Isn't that an expample of spreading the wealth too? Why isn't Alaska a socialist state? Or is it?

Posted by: Joe the Voter | Oct 29, 2008 2:27:21 PM

For those harping on the "farewell dinner of Mr. Khalid", I give you this:

This is yet another asked and answered accusation, just like Bill Ayers. Wow, do you now have to ask people you meet and befriend what is your faith, interest and political background now in this country? Unless you can prove that Senator Obama was supportive of anti-semitism or actually spoke out against Israel, then get off of it. What we have heard from Senator Obama is support of Israel. The McCain-Palin ticket bringing up old news to stir up tension in the Jewish-American community on the eve of the election. Pitiful!

What is really sad, other respectful republican politicians have bought into this way of campaigning. Elizabeth Doles ad in North Carolina calling her opponent "unGodly" is suprising yet telling of the desparation of the republican party. I never thought she would stoop to these tactics.

When you campaign this way, bringing up false accusations, the other side investigates YOU for similar instances. What did they find, McCain gave the foundation Mr. Khalid was with and/or ran $450K. Seems to me it is a wash but giving this "suspected Israel hater" that large sum of cash is a bit more damaging to me than sitting at a farewell dinner with him. Again, here is a guy who is teaching in American institutions. This is so hypocritical.

Posted by: CitizenAJ | Oct 29, 2008 2:59:13 PM

I had to "de-program" my 7 yr old grandson last night.

His union-loyalist parents, spouting the party line, gave him an Obama kids book. He was telling me all about young Barak; (I just rolled my eyes).

He naturally assumed I was going to vote for Barak, in which case I said "no Bobby, no-way would I vote for Barak" -- He looked at me strange and asked "why not Grandpa?"

I admit, I had to sit back and think a minute; what do you tell a 7 yr old??

You see, I'm kinda old fashion, and my problem with Obama is that "I just don't trust him."

I thought of the many lies he's told about Ayers and ACORN etc., but I guess the easiest one to explain to a 7 yr old, was his cancelling his gentlemens agreement with McCain on campaign financing.

So I told him; Bobby,,,I don't like Obama and won't vote for him, because of the following:

Last year, John McCain & Barak were planning to play a baseball game next Tuesday. They both agreed to use plastic bats during the game so that no one would get hurt.

Johnny showed up on Tuesday with his slightly used, plastic bat, but Barak came with a brand new wooden bat, that the sporting goods store gave him.


Of course, this allowed Barak to hit the ball so much further than Johnny. Johnny was mad but said,,,"ya know what Barak,,,,go ahead and play with your wooden bat; I'll still play with my plastic one." But I'll play fairly, with no one to "payback" should I win!

You however Barak, sort of "owe" the sporting goods store owner, "something" because he didn't give you that bat "just to be a nice guy.

Posted by: Planewizard | Oct 29, 2008 3:03:42 PM

Everyone that is so hype on Obama now will be turning their backs on him a year from now when he screws up! And he will screw up!

Posted by: Former Hillary Supporter | Oct 29, 2008 3:06:40 PM

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