The Numbers
A Run at the Latest Data from ABC's Poobah of Polling, Gary Langer
Gary Langer is director of polling at ABC News, where he's covered the beat of public opinion for nearly 20 years - conducting and analyzing ABC News polls, evaluating data from other sources and setting the news division's standards for poll reporting. Langer has won two Emmy awards for ABC's reporting of public opinion polls in Iraq, and The Numbers blog was honored this year as winner of the 2008 Iowa Gallup Award for Excellent Journalism Using Polls.
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Do You Know This Candidate?
October 29, 2008 7:20 AM
Barack Obama and John McCain alike have made strides since June in acquainting likely voters with their positions. The difference: For Obama’s supporters, it looks much more likely to matter.
More than three-quarters of likely voters in out ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll feel they know at least a good amount about the candidates’ positions on the issues, up 18 points for McCain and 21 points for Obama since the general election campaign got underway. That’s part of what campaigns are for.
But the importance likely voters place on those issue positions is not the same. Forty-five percent say the candidates’ positions on the issues are more important than their personal qualities – and they’re a very broadly pro-Obama group, favoring him by 67-30 percent.
Fifty-three percent, however, say either that the candidates personal qualities are more important, or that the two are equally important (42 and 11 percent, respectively) – and this group favors McCain by 14 points, 55-41 percent.
That may be what McCain’s campaign manager, Rick Davis, had in mind when he told The Washington Post in early September that what mattered in the race wasn’t issues but the voters’ “composite view” of the candidates. From McCain’s perspective that makes sense. From Obama’s, not so much.
Another approach to the data reinforces that conclusion. Among likely voters who feel they know at least a good amount about Obama’s positions, he leads by 56-40 percent. Among those who know at least that much about McCain, it’s a 51-46 percent McCain-Obama race.
That effect also appears among the subset of likely voters who feel they know a “great deal” about each candidate. Those who feel they know a great deal about Obama’s positions support him by a 2-1 margin, 64-31 percent. Those who know a great deal about McCain’s favor him by a smaller 8-point margin, 52-44 percent.
These results point to two conclusions about current strategy. One is that the McCain campaign portrayal of Obama as an unknown quantity may be aimed at breaking down the link between feeling informed about Obama’s positions and supporting him. The other is that Obama’s heavy advertising campaign, including his half-hour network television ads tonight, seems aimed at building up that very same link.
…and a Look at Movables
Another subject of interest, since we’re swimming in data these days, is what we call movable voters. Twelve percent of likely voters overall (using all 12 nights of our tracking poll), they’re those who are either outright undecided (just 2 percent) or who have a preference but haven’t definitely made up their minds (10 percent more).
Who are they? How movable? Here’s a sketch:
- Movables split about evenly between being highly movable - either undecided or saying there’s a “good chance” they’ll change their minds (7 percent) - and those who say it’s “pretty unlikely” they’ll change, 5 percent.
- They split by 37-34 percent between McCain and Obama, with 7 percent saying “neither” and 20 percent no opinion (based on the four nights of tracking data we released last night).
- Highly movables go 31-25 percent McCain-Obama, 13 percent neither, 29 percent no opinion.
- Unlikely movables, by contrast, split 50-49 percent Obama-McCain - more decisive, as you can see.
- Movability peaks in groups less rooted in partisanship: independents (17 percent movable overall, 11 percent highly), moderates (15 percent overall, 9 percent highly), white Catholics (15 percent overall, 8 percent highly) and white mainline Protestants (15 percent overall, 9 percent highly).
- They’re also less engaged. Just 45 percent of movables are following the campaign very closely, compared with 68 percent of likely voters who’ve definitely decided on a candidate. So if these are folks Obama’s aiming at in his TV specials tonight – well, it’s not at all clear how apt they’ll be to tune in.
October 29, 2008 in 2008 General Election | Permalink | User Comments (42)
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Well Planewizard that is too bad that you don't support Senator Obama, the change this country, this world needs like your children and grandchild. It is too bad that you believe the hype of the republican party and their supporters. Yes, he backed away from campaign finance. He would have been foolish not too. The people hungry to get away from the bad management of the republicans were donating to him in record numbers, that was his "public" financing. Trust me, ALL candidates will follow his model in the future.
Question I have for you Planewizard, how did you feel when you learned that President Bush had lied to you on the reason for invading Iraq? Do you think John McCain was truthful 17 years ago about his involvement in the Charles Keating, Savings and Loan failure? Are you comfortable with Sarah Palin as President IF something were to happen to a President McCain? Do you think John McCain can turn the economy around?
See Planewizard, your reasons for not supporting Senator Obama seem all based on what the republican party and its two white house candidates have LEAD YOU TO BELIEVE. Your support of them does not seem to based on your own analysis. I say this because you surely have to be part of the 90% that says the country is headed in the wrong direction. If you are, you cannot possibly support McCain economic and foreign policy because it is VERY similar to the current administrations. I often feel voters, citizens like yourself have let the "distractions" affect your decision verses facts.
Posted by: CitizenAJ | Oct 29, 2008 3:15:23 PM
I don't care about either candidates association with Kahalidi. What my main concer is, is how our future cammander & chief handled himself in the presence of somone spewing hatred towards America and an ally while he was a guest at a gala.
There are tapes and before Nov 4, it's only reasonable to wonder what his body language was like during the times a Palestanian women was spewing hatred rehoteric.
For all we know, Barak could've been cool as a cucumber as he always seems to be; it'd just be good to see what his temperment is like "under fire" if you will?!?
Knowing the video exists and is "hidden" leads one to believe Barak was standing up giving the black-power salute etc., when in fact, he may have displayed a demeanor conducive to the requirements of The President of the United States.
We won't know unless Peter Wallsten of the LA Times to release it..
I just want to see what all the fuss is about. I bet Obama handled himself very diplomatically reflective of how he would be as POTUS.
Posted by: Planewizard | Oct 29, 2008 3:16:19 PM
About Bush lying about Iraq,,,,,,I didn't vote for him in 2004!
About Palin;,,,, I like her. I think she the type of gal that'll roll up her sleeves and get the job done, in spite of her "less than stellar" education
Keating - ; McCain was exenorated. I used poor judgement a few times in my career too, but I didn't commit any crimes!
What I really despise is a public official lying, in a "lawyerly, Ivy League" manner and expect we're fools!
His association with Ayers, and he "not knowing the guy is "hogwash." The law case "US-v-Ayers" is extensively taught in law school, and Obama went to the best there is!
Then he expected you and I to just "not question" his infedility of the truth, not once, not twice,,,,but at least three times (do I hear a rooster crow Peter??)
No,,,Obama's roosters have certinally come back to roost,,,,,"just in time!"
Posted by: Planewizard | Oct 29, 2008 3:26:58 PM
I cannot believe someone still refers to themselves as a "former Hilary supporter". Wow! Talking about hanging on to things.
Posted by: CitizenAJ | Oct 29, 2008 3:27:30 PM
Google :
"An examination of Obama's use of hidden HYPNOSIS techniques in his speeches "
It's a compelling 67 page report.
Some people are more susceptible to it...may explain the 'Obama Zombie' syndrome .
Posted by: American Citizen | Oct 29, 2008 3:42:21 PM
I think he associated with Ayers but there is no evidence of them having the same idealology are haning out sharing a beer. My purpose for mentioning Keating, is because it was "asked and answered" then just like Ayers has been asked and answered 3 times now as you pointed out. When do we believe someone and move on? If you never are, then we should apply that to everyone, i.e. McCain's Keating scandal, because unlike Obama's interaction with Ayers on a foundation, McCain and Keating were friends. McCain utilize Keating's personal aircraft. You see where I am coming from? Sorry to ask you "stupid" questions but my teachers and professors have always told me, at least, there is no such thing as a stupid question.
Posted by: CitizenAJ | Oct 29, 2008 3:46:56 PM
CONSERVATIVE REVERSE SOCIALISM: Conservative economic plans also redistribute wealth, but to the wealthiest Americans in the form of tax cuts that benefit corporations and those in the top income brackets. Yesterday, Boehner unveiled his own economic recovery plan, which is focused on tax breaks that include cutting the top corporate tax rate from 35 percent to 25 percent and suspending the capital gains tax for two years. Sen. James Inhofe (R-OK) proposed a similar "six point economic plan" this month, in which he advocated completely eliminating the capital gains tax and making all of the Bush tax cuts permanent. Some of these provisions are also embraced by former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, and they are all propositions from which the overwhelming benefit would go to the very wealthy. As the Tax Policy Center found, 75 percent of the benefit of low taxes on capital gains and dividends "already go to those making $600,000 or more. Half goes to those making $2.8 million or more." Simply cutting the capital gains rate in half gives two-thirds of the benefit to those making $1 million or more. Meanwhile, cutting the corporate tax rate sends $175 billion to America's corporations, and these corporations would have no incentive to reinvest the extra money. As a report by the Center for American Progress found, "economic policies with tax cuts for corporations and the wealthy as their centerpiece have simply failed to produce strong economic growth by a variety of measures," including employment, investment, and wage levels.
Posted by: wurzelbacher_ | Oct 29, 2008 4:00:29 PM
The Ayers connection and Obama's renaging on a campaign finance promise are all cast into the big pickle barrell of public perception.
You see, it all has to do with "who do you trust?" And, "what degree of distrust can you accept??"
I find the fact that Obama debukes Ayers, and his non commitment to a campaign finances promise to be extremely important!
Reason being; If Obama finds it so easy to lie to our face about Ayers; even though Obama covered his notorious law case in Harvard Law (Ayers got off a life sentence on a "procedural technacality"), wouldn't it be equally easy for him to be lying about his Health Care Policies, his Economic Solutions, His College Funding promise etc?
Same holds true with campaign finances. In my 50+ years, if I made a commitment I stick to it! I've eaten crow a number of times for doing that, but,,,"it's the only way I can look myself in the eyes in the morning, when I shave!!"
You see, it's not so easy to fool people anymore, and I'd feel really foolish if I voted for Obama, simply because he was "cool" and "Matt Damon told us to!"
This is the most historic election ever, and could very well tear apart the fabric of American society, so it's very important we get it right
What'do you think?? Can you look yourself in the eyes knowing you supported someone with less than an honerable intent??
Posted by: Planewizard | Oct 29, 2008 4:11:13 PM
The reason America doesn't know the true Obama is because the liberal MSM has hidden the truth about him and has continued to present him in a positive light. Obama and his leftist illuminati ideals have been presented as a progressive approach for our country. This is also known as Socialism.
Posted by: Jeff | Oct 29, 2008 4:25:36 PM
Dave in VA....the Dem's control the Senate which actually added more PORK SPENDING to the last 2 years of the Budget....So, Bush could have Veto to Budget, but the budget would have been overridden in the Senate....So why do you say that it is the Republicans fault for the huge defict, when the Dems' are the ones that made and passed the budget? If you want to say that the War in Iraq is causing the huge defict, then I would like for you to tell the Iraqi's that were suppressed by Hussien sorry but we should have never liberated you from this dictator. Tell that to the women of Iraq...tell that to the soliders guarded the streets that the girls and female teenagers were safe walking to school. When OUR TROOPS guarded their route to school these innocent girls didn't have to worry about being raped, beated, or killed. they could go to school and get an education....and make something of themselves when OUR SOLIDERS guarded them....But does the MEDIA report any of this NO,NO,NO.
Posted by: 55Mariposa | Oct 29, 2008 4:42:22 PM
Citizen AJ ... Well you need to believe it! There's a reason this election is so close. There are many of her former supporters who have yet to decide if they will vote for Obama, and I'm one of them! ....And as for association...care to explain the 20 year association with Reverend Wright? and by the way. I'm African-American!
Posted by: Former Hillary Supporter | Oct 29, 2008 4:56:25 PM
Folks, this election is simple.
You can throw out the associations if you wish, the history, the background. each person, whatever ever side they take sees that their candidate is clean and the other guy is not. each sees that their candidate has a grasp on the issues and the other does not.. But the bottom line is simple. Assuming that each candidate is sincere, and has the best interest of the country at heart, then which direction is better.
McCain was not my first choice - I disagree with him on a multitude of issues. But i don't disagree with him on a basic tenet of capitalism. less taxes does mean more growth - across all levels of income.
Obama on the other hand suggests that what this country needs is a redistribution of wealth. Some how he believes that you can tax big business and still grow the economy. That has never been proven to work. in fact, the last president who taxed big business when the economy was weak was Hoover and the result was the worst depression in our history. Whether or not you like it, wealth must go to those who pursue it and taking it away to give to those who don't has NEVER worked. You can not grow the middle class by giving them a hand-out from those who actually invest in the growth they achieve. the result is not that everyone has more, the result is that everyone has less.
We operate under so many false inferences today, its no wonder that people struggle to understand what is best for them. Someone made reference in an earlier post about the massive deficit Bush left us with. It did grow under Bush, it always does in times of war, but the deficit was not all his doing. Half the people on here think ther was no deficit before Bush.. that Clinton left a surplus.. the deficit actaully grew over 2 trillion dollars under Clinton.. just like most don't realize that the current mortgage crisis is far more heavily tied to the democratic party than to the republican party..
Now we have a presidntial candidate who claims that he will cut taxes for 95% of america (that minght be hard since only about 70% actaully pay taxes).. but in the same breath he states that he intends to Let the bush tax cuts expire.. those cuts did help the wealthy, but they also lowered taxes on middle class and low income families as well... If he lets the tax cuts expire, Isn't that the same as raising your taxes??? No socialist country has ever enjoyed the level and standard of living that we enjoy in this country. Why should we support a philosophy that will ultimately decrease the standard of living for everyone. If the standard of living were placed on a scale of 1 to 10, wouldn't it be better for a few to be at 10 with the majority of the country at 5 or 6 than to have the ENTIRE country at 3 or 4?? Thats what socialism brings a more equitable distribution of less.
Posted by: arkie vet | Oct 29, 2008 6:11:32 PM
McCain It is too late now, it is all but over for you. Good luck in 2016 for a third try.!!!
Posted by: Saar | Oct 30, 2008 12:38:57 AM
this post is for the comment that was made by dave in va: the republican party is the father of hypocrisy. what i don't understand about you americans, is this:why is it good when the same rules you use to win now becomes hypocrisy when someone other than you do it? I do know this Americans are not equal even though your own constitution says that "all men are created equal". Is that not hypocrisy? Everything america is is based on unequal rights. people have to fight for what is rightfully theirs. Lets look at history since this is how you guys do it. Everything in american history points to unequal rights even for women. the power to be wants you to believe that you are equal because you have a job to go to, they let you work. whats the difference between a job and slavery? not much when you look at the real facts. America is not all that it chalked up to be, they have been lying to the people for centuries now and it is sad to say that the current government has just LIED to the american public about everything that it has been doing for the last 8 years. Just look at the mess the power to be has gotten this country in, you got big oil companies profiting billions of dollars because of the tax break that the power to be has allowed these companies to take. and they don't put anything back in the system. 5% of americans are wealthy 95% are the ones that pay the bills for americans and you call this equal. did you see what i wrote PROFITS IN THE BILLION. and you talk about socialism, isn't nationalizing the banks under that term? the eyes of the american people have been blinded and their ears plugged because of FEAR. FEAR that a black man MIGHT become president of the divide states of america. i also thought that this is what american was supposed to be representing where any person could become anything they could achieve. does that count when your skin color is darker than the power to be?
americans need to stop and take a good look at what is reallying going on in this country. THE UNDERTONE IS RACE, AFRAID TO LET A BLACK MAN BE EQUAL.
America is not equal by a long shot and will never be so stop lying to yourselves.
Posted by: shametobeanamerican | Oct 30, 2008 10:36:20 AM
No one really knows Obama because he changes his stance every time the wind blows. His leftist illuminati ideals are being packaged as a progressive approach to spreading the wealth, when all they are is glorified Socialism.
Posted by: Jeff | Oct 30, 2008 11:10:08 AM
Look, Poeple I have already voter for the first time in my life hey, I'm 35
I never really care about it so, I guess
I let everyone else make my choice for me. But not this time I do believe that poeple will be amazed how many voters come out for Obama. Maccain an palin are jokes and some poeple think thats what the country needs are two poeple for the rich. All these smears about obama is pityful. Poeple has soon as fox news puts some b/s out there poeple eat it up like it's fact. Maybe these middle class an poor poeple can let others play them like fiddles. I thought that if you are doing bad in life that you go to the person that can help you out but when you know that the other guy is better and will help you out then whats the problem is it color a reason to keep you an your family in a hold. I would say of course not, Joe the plumber will no doubt do better in a obama white house. But, because Joe is not color blind he is going to vote for someone that will hurt his family. Thats not a man you look up to and for Palin she has done everything that she swears obama is doing with no proof.
America wake up jeez it's not that hard
this one time in your life close your eyes for this moment an let color not be our down fall.
I have already voted Obama/Biden 08
Posted by: o | Oct 30, 2008 11:40:17 AM
Obama is very very Radical - look up Rev Wright. Obama is buying the youth vote-spread the weatlth - tax credits even if you don't pay Federal income tax. Rich crooked people need to go to jail, but rich, honest people create jobs. How much did you know at 18 -21 old? You need to look at this man before you vote, he wants to destroy America - he hates America - Do You?
Posted by: pbatrs | Oct 31, 2008 11:38:01 AM
Obama lied about public financing and he is lying about his tax chart. Started at $250,000 - last debate went down to $200,000, went back to $250,000. His 30 min ad which cost 3.5 to 6 mil, he said $200,000 then on campaign trail went back to $250,000 and Biden said on Monday $150,000. Not elected yet and already has gone $100,000. He is now evasive about he will do all he has promised. If you pay taxes now you will end up paying more. Don't fall for the hype - look at the Man - how many times does he use IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII- he is Radical - Does not like this country, if you do please vote McCain Palin
Posted by: pbamisc@comcast.net | Oct 31, 2008 11:46:15 AM
Grampa Planewizard, please change your name to planefool. Mr. Obama would have been crazy to limit himself as well as his supporters to only accept campaign finance money. We the people assisted him in his run for President of the United States of America. John McCain could have done the same, but he knew that people like you would never have followed through to the end to help him.
Posted by: obamacratic | Oct 31, 2008 5:47:30 PM
I wish this loser Joe the no license plumber would go away. Sarah Palin is so stupid for having this retard campaigning for John McCain. He's a liar and a racist.
Posted by: KurtTheTvTech | Oct 31, 2008 11:14:57 PM
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