The Numbers
A Run at the Latest Data from ABC's Poobah of Polling, Gary Langer
Gary Langer is director of polling at ABC News, where he's covered the beat of public opinion for nearly 20 years - conducting and analyzing ABC News polls, evaluating data from other sources and setting the news division's standards for poll reporting. Langer has won two Emmy awards for ABC's reporting of public opinion polls in Iraq, and The Numbers blog was honored this year as winner of the 2008 Iowa Gallup Award for Excellent Journalism Using Polls.
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Leadership and Change
October 30, 2008 8:00 AM
After a year positioning himself as the change candidate, Barack Obama owns the issue. On leadership overall, though, it’s a far closer call.
Likely voters by 60-34 percent in the latest ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll say Obama would do more than McCain to bring needed change to Washington. That’s roughly where they’ve been since March, with the exception of a 51-39 percent result just after the Republican convention, a gain for McCain that didn’t hold.
The result is another of several that conjure up the 1992 election. Bill Clinton held a 25-point lead over George H. W. Bush on who’d do the best job “bringing needed changes,” almost identical to Obama’s 26-point lead today. (As we’ve reported previously, Obama’s also the first Democrat since Clinton to lead on taxes, and the first since Clinton to hold a clear lead in trust to handle the economy – the dominant issue now as then.)
McCain is more competitive on leadership; likely voters divide, 49-46 percent, Obama-McCain, on who’s the stronger leader. That’s better for McCain than Obama’s 56-39 percent lead on this question Oct. 11; but worse than McCain’s best, a 53-40 percent lead back in March. For a candidate who’s campaigned heavily on experience and judgment, McCain must have been looking to do better on leadership in the final week.
Beyond Republicans and conservatives, McCain does best on leadership with evangelical white Protestants (72 percent pick him as the stronger leader than Obama) and rural voters (59 percent). But it’s closer in some other groups, such as whites (53 percent) and men (51 percent).
Views on change are more lopsided; just Republicans, conservatives and evangelical white Protestants pick McCain over Obama as best to bring needed change. Rural voters divide by 47-41 percent, Obama-McCain. Obama preferred on change by 54 percent of whites, and, in the political center, by 58 percent of independents.
…and Hispanics
Separately, we’ve taken another look at Hispanic voters in our tracking poll. As in past years they’re somewhat less engaged politically: While 83 percent of whites and 82 percent of blacks report being registered to vote, that declines to 67 percent of Hispanics. (Some, of course, are not citizens, and therefore ineligible to register.) Moreover, among registereds, 63 percent of blacks and 59 percent of whites are following the election “very closely”; among Hispanics that declines to 45 percent.
Whites account for about three-quarters of likely voters, blacks for about one in 10 and Hispanics for 6 percent – each group essentially matching its share of 2004 turnout, per the network exit poll. In one interesting difference, though, Hispanics are far more likely to identify themselves as first-time voters – 31 percent do so, compared with 19 percent of blacks and 9 percent of whites.
As far as vote preference, using our aggregate data over the past 14 nights for a good sample size, Hispanics favor Obama over McCain by a wide 69-28 percent, much like their Democratic vs. Republican vote for House seats in 2006 (69-30 percent) and similar to Clinton’s 72 percent support from Hispanics in 1996. Al Gore won 62 percent of Hispanics in 2000, John Kerry 58 percent in 2004, though a less-reliable 2004 exit poll figure of 53 percent often is reported.
October 30, 2008 in 2008 General Election | Permalink | User Comments (33)
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Ok Libs, now that we are all getting ready for failed jimmy carter presidency part deux with all of obamas socilist policies, when do u suppose the media will finally turn on him and expose him for what he really is. I am betting by February 1, after he has proposed a trillion in spending. What do you say...
Posted by: jack f. | Oct 30, 2008 8:20:36 AM
YUP he is the candidate of change, he keeps changing his tax cut numbers, now we are down to 200k for families. The good news...now we have more RICH people in America, I bet they are relieved to find out they are rich.
Posted by: samhiguchi | Oct 30, 2008 8:26:52 AM
It will take longer than until February 1st to start tearing him down. I'd guess mid May. Oh the disappointment the voters are going to face. I'm just glad I no longer look to the government to make my life better. I broke free, and YOU CAN, too. Power to the people not the media.
Posted by: Kitty | Oct 30, 2008 8:29:43 AM
jack f. you're funny! you compare Obama to Carter, but when anyone compares McCain to Bush you say he's not the same, keep trying....
Posted by: matt | Oct 30, 2008 8:32:29 AM
and samhiguchi nice try
the tax numbers have never changed
but the lies from the McCain campaign sure have...lol
same team
same tactics
same lies and spin to fool the American people
9th year.
Posted by: dl | Oct 30, 2008 8:33:17 AM
I am betting by February 1, after he has proposed a trillion in spending. What do you say...
-------------------
I say that according to all third party sources, McCain has proposed a larger budget deficit that Obama.
The idea of "fiscal responsibility" in the GOP is a farce. When has the Republican party ever really decreased spending? Every Republican President in the last 50 years has incresed the deficit and increased the debt.
Sure, they always say, "no new taxes". Instead they just borrow the money from other nations and pass on the debt to the next generation. Buy now, pay later is the Republican ideology.
It's their failure to understand the consequesnces of such a policy that has put America where it is today. Republican economic thoery has been a failure by every metric used to measure an economy.
Posted by: GOP HYPOCRISY | Oct 30, 2008 8:42:29 AM
There is no way he can do anything he wants to without raising taxes and someone finally pointed that out to him
-----------------
And yet no one has pointed that out to McCain?
Accoring to the Tax Policy Center, McCains's proposals will incease the national debt by $10.2 TRILLION dollars in ten years. Obama's plan will increase it by $5.7 trillion in the same amount of time.
Both ar HUGE over spenders, but McCain is the worse of two evils.
Posted by: GOP HYPOCRISY | Oct 30, 2008 8:46:12 AM
Dl and Matt. Kool Aid party at Olberman's starts at 8 - drink up! If your boy is so economically astute why does the tax line keep dropping 250,000 to 200,000 now it is 150,000. Get ready people the huge tax increases are coming.
Posted by: jack f | Oct 30, 2008 8:48:43 AM
McCain has shown his character in this campaign: it's vicious, petty, lazy, reckless, vain and dishonorable. Campaigns do that. They reveal who someone really is.
Posted by: asullivan | Oct 30, 2008 8:55:13 AM
A TRUE leader inspires, raises our hopes, offers a new horizon, and has a plan and vision for the future.
Name calling and inuendo based accusation takes the leadership of a third grader. Stay the course is not leadership, that just going with the flow when we're headed in the wrong direction.
It's obvious there is only one TRUE leader in this campaign and it is Barack Obama.
Americans now understand we cannot continue to have a government that believes catering only to the wealthy is what is best for the nation.
Barack has lead the whole time. McCain has just tried to play catch up.
McCain showed, with his choice of Plain, that he was more concerned with appealing to the right wing nut jobs than doing what is best for the country. He caved in on the very issues he that supposedly "stood up agianst his party".
Next Tuesday, Americans will chose the leadership over negativity.
Posted by: Barack the Vote | Oct 30, 2008 8:55:48 AM
dl, I would urge you to go in search of the tape, I believe it happens in the 4th or 5th minute of the tape. He says he will cut taxes for families making less than 200 thousand a year (Biden said 150k) So yes it did change and the words came direct from O's mouth.
As for when the press will start tearing O down (if elected) I say mid Feb, you have to consider he takes office Jan 20, he's already got the drapes picked out, so no problems there and the dems (Pelosi, Reid, Frank and Kerry) are going to be all ready to roll with their massive spending plans. Give them a week to go over that, another week for the press to try and hide their embarassment for picking a doofus for prez and before Valentines day you will see the first stories printed.
Posted by: samhiguchi | Oct 30, 2008 9:00:11 AM
Barack wants change...So McCain decided he would be about change as well(even tried to steal the slogan)
Barack speaks for the middle class...so McCain decided perhaps he should mention the middle class
Barack has the power of personality....so McCain decided he needed someone who had personal appeal
Barack speaks out against Bush policies...so McCain decided he shouls say smoething aginst Bush policies (when heactually supported them)
WHO IS THE REAL LEADER?
It's obvious.
Posted by: Dave in VA | Oct 30, 2008 9:01:48 AM
Before anyone starts calling ME names, let's explain this: I used to support McCain. My problem with McCain is called Sarah Palin. Having said that. let me remind everyone about President Bush, the elder. He said "No new taxes," but his Republican predecessor left him with a 3 trillion dollar debt. Guess what? He had to raise taxes; the alternative -- not to address the debt -- would have sunk this Nation into oblivion. Forward to 2009: who ever wins WILL HAVE TO RAISE TAXES. The debt is now $11,500,000,000,000. If ANY Candidate tells you he won't raise SOMEONE'S taxes -- he or she is lying to you. Comprende?
Posted by: aeronaut | Oct 30, 2008 9:12:53 AM
E_DAY - 5: ELECTORAL COLLEGE EV POLLS
2008
Obama 375
McCain 157
Tie 6
2004
Bush 280
Kerry 243
Tie 15
State-by-State Polls Are What Matters And Always Predict The Winer.
IT'S OVER.......
Posted by: Steve_NJ | Oct 30, 2008 9:17:31 AM
Obama 54% mccain 42%
Obama 340 EV
mccain 198 EV
Posted by: pt | Oct 30, 2008 9:30:31 AM
As for when the press will start tearing O down (if elected) I say mid Feb, you have to consider he takes office Jan 20, he's already got the drapes picked out, so no problems there and the dems (Pelosi, Reid, Frank and Kerry) are going to be all ready to roll with their massive spending plans. Give them a week to go over that, another week for the press to try and hide their embarassment for picking a doofus for prez and before Valentines day you will see the first stories printed.
Posted by: samhiguchi | Oct 30, 2008 9:00:11 AM
** Jealous are we? America gave Republicans their turn and look how they've ruined the nation.. thanks but no thanks for that bridge to nowhere!
Posted by: Voter 4 Obama in Real VA | Oct 30, 2008 9:37:14 AM
On a different note, while the American economy is verging on collapse, the financial markets have crashed, the housing maket is gone, growth is going backwards, and unemployment is on the rise.....
I thought should I'd share the feel good story of the day:
"Exxon Mobil breaks profit record, earns $14.8 Billion"
Now don't you feel better about Republican economic policy? It will trickle down right? Just trust the "Maverick".
Posted by: Dave in VA - ALSO REAL VA! | Oct 30, 2008 9:51:27 AM
Jack F seems to think we assume that the economic disaster that took eight years to create will be fixed by February if Obama takes office. Otherwise, we'll be angry.
Sorry Jack, most of us know it will takes years to get our nation back on track. But we know that McCain has charted a crash course, and he will never get get us turned around.
Posted by: Rachel | Oct 30, 2008 10:02:47 AM
Just trust the maverick!!!!!! Maverick!!!!!!
Posted by: Troy | Oct 30, 2008 10:13:04 AM
I am a Veteran of this great Nation (United States of America) and it will prosper once again.
Posted by: Troy | Oct 30, 2008 10:14:45 AM
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