The Numbers
A Run at the Latest Data from ABC's Poobah of Polling, Gary Langer
Gary Langer is director of polling at ABC News, where he's covered the beat of public opinion for nearly 20 years - conducting and analyzing ABC News polls, evaluating data from other sources and setting the news division's standards for poll reporting. Langer has won two Emmy awards for ABC's reporting of public opinion polls in Iraq, and The Numbers blog was honored this year as winner of the 2008 Iowa Gallup Award for Excellent Journalism Using Polls.
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New Direction vs. Experience (and an Early Voting Update)
October 31, 2008 7:41 AM
With the economy proving far scarier to voters this Halloween than the threat of terrorism or the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, likely voters are looking more for new ideas and a new direction than an experienced hand – though it is a close call.
Just fewer than half, 48 percent in the latest ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll, say new ideas and a new direction are more important in their choice for president than strength and experience. Slightly fewer, 43 percent, say the opposite.
That tilts the advantage to Barack Obama, given the sharp difference in vote choice. He wins 90 percent of “new ideas” voters, while 86 percent of “experience” voters go to John McCain.
The preferences split largely along party lines. Seventy-seven percent of Republicans – the party that sent a war hero and longtime senator into battle for the presidency – say they prefer a strong, experienced candidate. About as many Democrats – whose party nominated a relative newcomer largely on his promise of change – focus on a new direction and new ideas. And independents divide down the middle.
Even with this division, Obama passes muster on experience with a majority of likely voters, his greatest vulnerability earlier in the campaign, and a point on which McCain has tried hard to make progress. Fifty-five percent say Obama’s experienced enough to serve effectively as president, essentially steady since Oct. 11. It cracked 50 percent for the first time on Sept. 29, just after the first presidential debate.
Nonetheless, it’s still a close call in some key groups. Independents, for example, divide by 51-46 percent on whether Obama’s experienced enough for the job.
…and an Early Voting Update
Separately, our latest tracking poll data find that one in six likely voters has done the deed, and as many say they will between now and Election Day. Their preference: Obama by a substantial margin.
Seventeen percent now say they’ve already voted, favoring Obama over John McCain by 59-40 percent. An additional 18 percent say they’ll do so before Tuesday, for a possible total of 35 percent voting early or by absentee ballot. That would be a record by far, well above its levels in 2004 and 2000 alike, 22 and 15 percent, respectively.
Obama’s wide margin among early voters reflects his campaign’s push; likely voters who plan instead to hold off until Election Day divide much more closely, 50-45 percent. And while state-level reports match the high numbers reflected in this poll, it remains to be seen whether long lines at early-voting locations depress some of that anticipated turnout.
Obama’s edge among early voters is particularly broad – better than a 2-1 margin – in the 16 battleground states and eight toss-up states as designated by our Political Unit. And intended early voting, that 35 percent total, peaks in some pro-Obama groups – among blacks and Hispanics, city dwellers and in the West. It’s also high among seniors, a more divided group.
October 31, 2008 in 2008 General Election | Permalink | User Comments (402)
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I think you're going to be highly disappointed on election day. I know the media has pushed for an OBama win but I don't believe the American people will elect this unknown. The world is too scary right now and his changes are going to devistate America, not help us.
Posted by: lizathome | Oct 31, 2008 8:13:54 AM
The thing that is most bizarre about the election map is that McCain's own state is only *leaning towards him. To me, that says the people that "really know anything about him", are skeptical about voting for McCain (possibly due to *his poor associations).
Oh the irony!
Obama/Biden 08!
Posted by: Common Sense | Oct 31, 2008 8:15:04 AM
How about the ability to be open to varying points of view and ideas? How about intelligence? How about not following the same economic philosophy that had made the rich richer while the rest of us fall behind? How about a leader that will be respected by and respectful of the rest of the world so America can be a partner for good again?
Posted by: TSnow27604 | Oct 31, 2008 8:16:46 AM
These polls are so skewed. If they polled my N Texas county, they'd find it 55+ for McCain/Palin. So, it just goes to show, you can make the polls say whatever you want. If you're a McCain/Palin supporter, ignore the polls and the main stream media propaganda and vote.
Posted by: deanbob | Oct 31, 2008 8:17:57 AM
My neighbor asks me "what is wrong with these Americans - why are they voting for a Socialist/Marxist; don't they read about what socialism does to a country? I came to America to get away from Castro and the Socialists who took everything I had." Since I haven't been in school for so long, I don't know what they teach any more.
Posted by: deanbob | Oct 31, 2008 8:22:14 AM
all the young people need to vote as it is their future that they will be voting for------and a continuance of the last 8 years means there would be no future with mccain-
VOTE OBAMA -BIDEN
Posted by: rodney | Oct 31, 2008 8:22:37 AM
lizathome:
You say Obama's changes are going to "devastate" America?
But having Sarah Palin a heartbeat away from the presidency does not scare the hell out of you????
Okay.
By the way, I will not be disappointed on election night. My candidate is going to win!
Obama/Biden '08
Posted by: Shay | Oct 31, 2008 8:24:31 AM
I have noticed a stark change in Republican campaigning in the last two weeks. Now, they campaign only on fear. We have had enough fear. We should fear only the prospect of not changing our direction. If 70% of Americans feel we are on the wrong track, they better vote for change.
I voted for Obama.
Posted by: ken | Oct 31, 2008 8:28:41 AM
deanbob,
That seems to be what you guys do best -- ignore the facts.
Ignore the news that pointed out that "Joe the Plumber" didn't pay taxes, but McCain thinks he's the perfect citizen to add to his campaign.
Ignore the fact that the "conservative", "pro waste reduction" RNC spent $150K on Sarah Palin's wardrobe in one month.
Ignore the fact that McCain will tax healtcare benefits for the first time in U.S. history.
I do agree that mainstream news is not presented by Hannity or Limbaugh; they are entertainment shows, not news.
I encourage everyone to read, watch, surf for and pay attention to the news. Both sides have been presented.
Choose wisely.
Obama/Biden 08!
Posted by: Common Sense | Oct 31, 2008 8:29:02 AM
Two canidates. One focused, consistant,
shown great campaine and finance management. The other all over the place. Very nonconsistant, very poor campaine management. Makes choices like Palin. Look at the two temperments. Now tell me McCain would be better in the White House.
Posted by: CW | Oct 31, 2008 8:31:07 AM
Finally. A chance for the world to celebrate along with the US. Every friendly country on the planet is rooting for Obama. After eight years, here's an opportunity for America to regain some respect among its allies.
Posted by: musquash5 | Oct 31, 2008 8:34:39 AM
55mariposa
I watched the Good Morning America show today and it had McCain in person.
I really think they have shown both about equal. The political ads may be more for Obama, but don't be so jealous. If your canidate had the same amount of money, he would do the same and his ads have been much more dirty than Obama's. I voted for George Bush, but I will not support a canidate who ran such a dirty campaign.
Posted by: sue | Oct 31, 2008 8:35:25 AM
THANK YOU ABC. The MSM is trying to discourage McCain/Palin supporters from voting. People - wake up and GO VOTE. I get after my family and friends on a daily basis. Do the same! If you think your 401k is bad now, just wait until THE ONE is elected. Who would want to invest in an America that has higher taxes, unions and redistribution of wealth policies? If Obama is elected, you can kiss your retirement good bye. The market will go down, and higher capital gain taxes will take care of the rest.
Posted by: USA-NC-08 | Oct 31, 2008 8:35:36 AM
Sarah Palin has more executive experience than either Obama or Biden. She was governor of a state and successfully negotiated a favorable contract with oil companies. Remember your high gas prices? She can help. Obama's tax the rich policies will hurt all of us. Coporations that have to pay higher taxes under the Obama plan in a time when revenues are declining have lower earnings. This means more layoffs, no growth of the economy, and lower stock prices in our 401k plans. This is simple economics and Obama doesn't understand it. No Experience. Not ready to be President.
Posted by: Sherrie | Oct 31, 2008 8:36:31 AM
Obama's promises were inflated and now he can not delivery. More broken promises. What other CREEPY secrets will come out on Halloween.
Posted by: Eric | Oct 31, 2008 8:36:46 AM
the financial turmoil has prompted a lot of people to vote early. some would not have voted if the economy was humming along.
Posted by: dav | Oct 31, 2008 8:39:31 AM
THIS IS THE FIRST TIME IN MANY YEARS I HAVE FELT GOOD ABOUT VOTING FOR POTUS----MAYBE NOW WE WILL MOVE AHEAD IN THE WORLD---THE PAST 8 YEARS HAVE ALMOST BURIED US---TWO WARS, COLLAPSE OF THE MARKET---NO JOBS--NO MONEY--WITH OBAMA WE AT LEAST HAVE A CHANCE---
OBAMA-BIDEN
Posted by: rodney | Oct 31, 2008 8:41:20 AM
The true mettle of a man is not how he reacts when everything is going well. It is how he acts when things are going wrong. Mr. McCain has not been acting as I thought he would. I expected him to explain his agenda, to run a clean campaign especially seeing what George Bush/Karl Rove did to him in the past. He has sorely disappointed me.
Posted by: Catherine | Oct 31, 2008 8:41:50 AM
To you who says the whole world is rooting for Obama. Read Daniel and Revelations in the Bible. "For one will come that with his words will deceive many, even the elect." Then let me know if you are still blind. Christians understand the economic, moral and social devastation that policies like Obama's will have on our nation and yes, possibly the world. In the end times a leader will come who will appear to be able to save the world but instead will destroy it. Is Obama that man? Only God knows but I will not vote for anyone resembling that man. I have been forwarned by God and have my eyes wide open.
Posted by: Sherrie | Oct 31, 2008 8:43:17 AM
Why isn't ABC reporting on the 2 men in Kentucky that were arrested for hanging and obama effigy in a tree? Why wasn't the man if Ca arrested for hanging an effigy of Palin? Double standard for sure.
Posted by: boo | Oct 31, 2008 8:43:42 AM
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