The Numbers
A Run at the Latest Data from ABC's Poobah of Polling, Gary Langer
Gary Langer is director of polling at ABC News, where he's covered the beat of public opinion for nearly 20 years - conducting and analyzing ABC News polls, evaluating data from other sources and setting the news division's standards for poll reporting. Langer has won two Emmy awards for ABC's reporting of public opinion polls in Iraq, and The Numbers blog was honored this year as winner of the 2008 Iowa Gallup Award for Excellent Journalism Using Polls.
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New Direction vs. Experience (and an Early Voting Update)
October 31, 2008 7:41 AM
With the economy proving far scarier to voters this Halloween than the threat of terrorism or the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, likely voters are looking more for new ideas and a new direction than an experienced hand – though it is a close call.
Just fewer than half, 48 percent in the latest ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll, say new ideas and a new direction are more important in their choice for president than strength and experience. Slightly fewer, 43 percent, say the opposite.
That tilts the advantage to Barack Obama, given the sharp difference in vote choice. He wins 90 percent of “new ideas” voters, while 86 percent of “experience” voters go to John McCain.
The preferences split largely along party lines. Seventy-seven percent of Republicans – the party that sent a war hero and longtime senator into battle for the presidency – say they prefer a strong, experienced candidate. About as many Democrats – whose party nominated a relative newcomer largely on his promise of change – focus on a new direction and new ideas. And independents divide down the middle.
Even with this division, Obama passes muster on experience with a majority of likely voters, his greatest vulnerability earlier in the campaign, and a point on which McCain has tried hard to make progress. Fifty-five percent say Obama’s experienced enough to serve effectively as president, essentially steady since Oct. 11. It cracked 50 percent for the first time on Sept. 29, just after the first presidential debate.
Nonetheless, it’s still a close call in some key groups. Independents, for example, divide by 51-46 percent on whether Obama’s experienced enough for the job.
…and an Early Voting Update
Separately, our latest tracking poll data find that one in six likely voters has done the deed, and as many say they will between now and Election Day. Their preference: Obama by a substantial margin.
Seventeen percent now say they’ve already voted, favoring Obama over John McCain by 59-40 percent. An additional 18 percent say they’ll do so before Tuesday, for a possible total of 35 percent voting early or by absentee ballot. That would be a record by far, well above its levels in 2004 and 2000 alike, 22 and 15 percent, respectively.
Obama’s wide margin among early voters reflects his campaign’s push; likely voters who plan instead to hold off until Election Day divide much more closely, 50-45 percent. And while state-level reports match the high numbers reflected in this poll, it remains to be seen whether long lines at early-voting locations depress some of that anticipated turnout.
Obama’s edge among early voters is particularly broad – better than a 2-1 margin – in the 16 battleground states and eight toss-up states as designated by our Political Unit. And intended early voting, that 35 percent total, peaks in some pro-Obama groups – among blacks and Hispanics, city dwellers and in the West. It’s also high among seniors, a more divided group.
October 31, 2008 in 2008 General Election | Permalink | User Comments (402)
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rightfully so, but you need to note what type of government compulsory voting has made in Australia. An inept, dysfunctional, scandal ridden Labor government which has more than its fair share of cheats and outright criminals as MP (congressman). some even make it to be minister.
Posted by: dav | Oct 31, 2008 8:44:19 AM
Sherrie,
"This is simple economics and Obama doesn't understand it."
You are correct about one thing -- it is *simple minded. The facts show otherwise, but Rush and Hannity won't tell you that.
Look up economic growth AND stock market statistics covering both republican and democratic administrations. You'll find that stocks, jobs, wealth and everything else economy-related has consistently faired better under Democratic administrations.
Obama/Biden 08!
Posted by: Common Sense | Oct 31, 2008 8:44:26 AM
I can't wait until Tuesday when Palin takes her rootin' tootin' gosh darnit butt back up to Alaska!
Obama-Biden '08!
Posted by: Texan for Obama | Oct 31, 2008 8:45:48 AM
I don't know, Eric - I don't care. I've cast my vote already. For Obama. YES WE CAN! Obama 08.
Posted by: chester burns | Oct 31, 2008 8:46:04 AM
Whatever happened to common sense in politics? The federal government was not designed to manage social affairs. It attempted to assist elderly with Medicare and social security and failed! It attempted to reform American schooling and failed! It attempted to provide welfare and again failed! Each of these “entitlement” programs is wasting millions of dollars each year. Most are projected to run out of money within 25 years and all need to be overhauled. The federal government is NOT the right solution for social problems! Do we really want to incur more tax burdens and trust the federal government with managing our health system?
Obama wants to take more of our money and redistribute it to more programs. The problem is, our existing programs are not properly funded and poorly implemented. We expect this inexperienced senator and 535 congress members to get all these new programs right? They couldn’t even pass an economic rescue plan without attaching more pork spending to it! We cannot manage our current Medicare, social security, education, and welfare programs – do we really want our federal government to take on more programs?
How did we ever survive in the past without federal government intervention?? =) The best solutions for helping our poor and needy come through local charity and community and state organizations. These are focused on relief of their people and they do not suffer as much from the excessive waste and mismanagement problems ($$) of our national government.
I cannot vote for a team that irresponsibly throws around free-bees the way Obama is. He wants to throw more money at everything. It’s easy to make promises like that, but impossible to finance them – or to implement them effectively in the federal government. Quit dreaming. I cannot vote for Obama.
Posted by: Damon | Oct 31, 2008 8:46:10 AM
Obama is already backpedaling. He is now saying that people are expecting too much from him, and he can't possibly deliver on all his promises for HOPE and CHANGE that he has been promising, because of the economy. LOL..
The economy didn't get this way overnight, and he has been making these promises for months now, so why the sudden change. He knows that if he gets in office all of his LIES will be exposed.
Posted by: mom | Oct 31, 2008 8:47:10 AM
The "likely" voters that are being polled havent even made up their minds.. get real VOTE..
McCain-Palin 2008.
Inexperienced Islamic Celebrity or an experienced POW who has and will put YOUR Country First.
Obama voters you will be sorry you voted for inexperience and his lies of "change".
If he wins, we'll talk in about a year when we are in World War 3.
Posted by: jh | Oct 31, 2008 8:47:19 AM
DonM - the only true thing in your post is this fact: Barack Obama is a black man. Yes, oooooOOOOOooooo, big deal. So what. Who cares? MOST OF US DON'T. THE REST OF YOU HAVE A LOT OF GROWING UP TO DO.
Posted by: lily | Oct 31, 2008 8:47:39 AM
Sherrie...thank God there are still a few of us with our eyes open. The Christian people in this country will not vote Obama. Not unless they are trying to usher in the End Times.
Posted by: mom | Oct 31, 2008 8:50:18 AM
CANNOT WAIT FOR TUESDAY ----CANNOT STAND ANY MORE OF THE MCCAIN FREAK SHOW--LIKE A CARTOON FOR OLDER PEOPLE.
OBAMA--BIDEN
Posted by: rodney | Oct 31, 2008 8:52:00 AM
oooooooOOOOOOooooooo now its the End Times scare. Wow - I thought you evangelicals looked FORWARD to the 'End Times'? Must be a drag waking up every morning - and finding out you're still here huh?
Posted by: lily | Oct 31, 2008 8:52:43 AM
Funny - I'm a christian. When I go to church 2+ times a week for various reasons - we don't talk about depressing "End Times". Wow what a drag! Maybe you should look around because real church is fun! A place to renew faith and renew spirit. As it should be!
Posted by: lily | Oct 31, 2008 8:55:00 AM
Stock facts 1901 to 2005:
Republicans = 6.9% gain over 56 years
Democrats = 13.3% gain over 48 years
Obama/Biden 08!
Posted by: Common Sense | Oct 31, 2008 8:55:01 AM
LILY
you have to admit these mccain people are entertaining---a little nutty but entertaining--palins minister could help them.
Posted by: rodney | Oct 31, 2008 8:55:34 AM
Many in Ohio including my husband and I are voting McCain. I was a Hillary supporter and we strongly feel that the democratic party did whatever possible to ensure her defeat. We all forget Michigan and Florida and Howard Deans rules that penalized these states. This secured Obama's noimination. The dems did not want Hillary so they stacked what they could against her. That is where they lost me and many others. I also voted democratically since I've been a registerd voter. (not because of pro-choice either) My party thinks I don't pay attention to ALL that has gone on in the last two years. I see another attempt to push women out and stiffle us. I will not tolerate it. Vote McCain!
Posted by: Amanda | Oct 31, 2008 8:56:40 AM
Damon: "The federal government was not designed to manage social affairs." Federal Governments can and do manage health care and education programs in other countries and does it very well. If you have a concern re: poor facilitation and management, well that's another matter. But it can be done very well. Vote for who you want, more money has been thrown away under Bush administration than any other administration than I can remember. He inherited a sizeable surplus and is leaving us with historic levels of debt. Our "social affairs" as you call them have been mismanaged. Our education, health care and social security have all gone backwards. We can either vote to change the situation or vote to keep going along the same disastrous road that has brought us to this point. And No, it couldn't get worse under Obama. I can see what lies at the end of the road we are on - most of us can - ANY attempt at change would be better than continuing along on this path. As it happens, Obama will be a great and welcome change.
Posted by: chester burns | Oct 31, 2008 8:57:04 AM
So reviewing the two types of commenter’s here really say’s it all
First group - You have the Obama supporters – full of hope and promise – a bright new day for America – something new
Second group - You have the McCain supporters – full of bland ideology with no real substance – but a lot of negative emotion, mostly fear, anger, worry – pretty much what we have had the last 8 years.
So if you look at it you don’t have to judge the poor choice or zero message from McCain, the fact that Joe the unlicensed tax owing, never earned $250K but I am token worker guy – and now am part of the McCain inner circle – giving Mr. Experience advice. How many more Joe the Plumber decisions can we afford?
So you don’t have to think about the fact that McSame has no real plan except to attack Obama (and God knows who else he’ll attack)
All you really have to do is ask yourself do you want a bright new future in America? Or do you want to extend this dark chapter in our history with more of the McSame –
Vote for a bright new future – Vote for Obama
Posted by: JimInFlTheBlueState | Oct 31, 2008 8:57:51 AM
McCain is a good man. However, he has a reputation as a maverick. He seems to be proud of it. But he is known as a maverick because of his tendency to go against common wisdom. His military career, his personal life, his political life and this presidential campaign are marred by his impulsive decisions that cause him to be known as a maverick. His traits that cause him to be known as a maverick have worked against him in campaigning and would work against the country if he became president. He is trying to sell the country a large pile of horse hockey, by claiming being a maverick is a desirable characteristic. I have a bunch of mavericks in my family . They cause trouble.
Posted by: msgijoe | Oct 31, 2008 8:58:11 AM
If anybody says to me the polls are biased or the news is biased? It's code for "I think we're losing and my candidates suck."
Posted by: Susan-1 | Oct 31, 2008 8:58:31 AM
So Amanda - you don't really have any ideals - you're just voting to punish someone because Hillary didn't win the primary? Wow, real smart. And you think putting someone like Palin in office is doing Hillary any favors? Hillary would slap you silly. Geeeeesh. Think with your HEAD.
Posted by: lily | Oct 31, 2008 8:59:31 AM
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