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Of Markets and Marriages

October 10, 2008 1:25 PM

Polling notes follow on two very different issues in the news: The market and gay marriage.

MARKET - In the past the public has reacted with fortitude to steep declines in the stock market. There are several reasons: While a lot own stocks or stock funds, plenty don’t; those who do tend to be long-term, buy-and-hold investors, many with an investment timeline long enough to wait out a crash; and stock and stock-fund owners tend to be better-off financially, and thus better positioned to absorb a hit.

To some extent, also, a sense of the market’s inherent risk is built into public attitudes. In a poll we did in March 2005, 69 percent called the stock market a risky place to put their money. In July 2002, after a one-week, 10 percent drop in the Dow (and a two-year, 30-percent drop), even more, 80 percent, called it risky. Yet investors invest.

None of this mitigates the real impact of the current turmoil on millions of individual investors, particularly those ready to call on long-built savings for tuition or retirement. Nor does it anticipate the broader economic impact yet to be felt. And while the past adds perspective, it’s not predictive; the current turmoil is virtually unprecedented.

Recent polling indicates that about 45 percent of adults own stocks directly or through mutual funds, excluding retirement accounts. More, 57 percent in a Pew poll in February, reported having retirement accounts such as an IRA or 401(k). In a January poll, 40 percent reported having a traditional pension plan. Fewer directly own stocks, outside of mutual funds – 22 percent in that poll we did in 2002.

And among all stock and stock fund owners, in a poll we did back in 2001, 92 percent called themselves long-term, buy-and-hold investors.

As to recent data: In a Wall Street Journal/NBC poll completed Oct. 5, 49 percent of Americans said they were being personally affected by the Wall Street and mortgage crisis; considerably fewer, 20 percent, said they were being affected “a great deal.”

Broader concern nonetheless clearly is high. In an ABC/Post poll Sept. 22, with the financial crises well underway but not yet at its fever pitch, 79 percent Americans were worried about the economy’s future, 72 percent about the performance of the stock market and 60 percent about their own family’s finances. Again, fewer in each case were “very” worried, 40, 33 and 22 percent, respectively. One obvious question is whether the ongoing crisis has heightened those high-level worries.

Our ongoing ABC News consumer confidence index remained very low this week, -43 on its scale of +100 to -100 last week. It’s been stable, but part of that stability may stem from the fact that it’s computed on a four-week rolling average. We’ll see what happens when a fresh week rolls in next week. At the same time, likely for the same reasons cited above, the index has not responded dramatically to past stock market declines. (And one strongly negative factor on consumer views, gasoline prices, in fact have eased.)

As noted, previous steep market declines were accompanied by concern, but well short of despair. In the July 2002 poll I’ve mentioned, 69 percent said they were concerned by the market’s drop; it was 64 percent in March 2001, and 68 percent after the particularly nasty tumble of October 1987. But in each of these cases far fewer were “very concerned” – 28, 24 and 14 percent, respectively.

MARRIAGE - Vis-à-vis the Connecticut ruling, the latest national polling indicates greater acceptance of gay marriage than in the past, with anywhere from a slight majority opposed, to, in the latest result, an even split.

In a Time magazine poll in August likely voters divided 47-47 percent on gay marriage. That result was a tad odd, since it was a less even 51-42 percent opposed in a Time poll just a month earlier, and 53-44 percent opposed in a CNN poll in late June. All these, though, are closer to the 58-35 percent opposition Time measured in 2004, and our own average of 57-37 percent in polls from 2003-2006.

Support for civil unions has been higher, and also has shifted – in our own data, from 40 percent support in 2003 to a high of 55 percent support in 2007.

Another approach has been to ask which of the three options people prefer – gay marriage, civil unions or no legal recognition of gay relationships. Most nationally favor one of the two forms of legal recognition. In the latest, a Quinnipiac poll in July, 32 percent favored gay marriage, 33 percent civil unions, 29 percent no recognition. Newsweek and CBS polls earlier in the summer had very similar results.

In Connecticut itself, Quinnipiac asked the three-way question in early 2007: Thirty-nine percent favored gay marriage, 33 percent civil unions, 22 percent neither. It hasn’t asked a straight yea/nay on gay marriage in Connecticut since spring 2005, at that time finding 53 percent opposed, 42 percent in favor.

October 10, 2008 in Economy, Social Issues | Permalink | User Comments (22)

User Comments

Posted by: ANNA | Nov 12, 2008 4:28:34 PM

Posted by: hello | Nov 20, 2008 8:49:15 PM

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