The Numbers
A Run at the Latest Data from ABC's Poobah of Polling, Gary Langer
Gary Langer is director of polling at ABC News, where he's covered the beat of public opinion for nearly 20 years - conducting and analyzing ABC News polls, evaluating data from other sources and setting the news division's standards for poll reporting. Langer has won two Emmy awards for ABC's reporting of public opinion polls in Iraq, and The Numbers blog was honored this year as winner of the 2008 Iowa Gallup Award for Excellent Journalism Using Polls.
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Divided Gov't and McCain's Closing Case
October 26, 2008 8:06 AM
One of John McCain’s closing arguments – as reported by George Stephanopoulos last week – has some resonance among swing-voting independents: resistance to Democratic control of the presidency and Congress alike.
Likely voters overall favor Democratic control of Congress by 8 points, and half in principle support single-party control of both branches. But that masks sharp partisan differences, with independents tilted slightly toward McCain’s view.
Independents by 45-37 percent in the latest ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll say they’d rather see the Republicans than the Democrats win control of Congress. And by 43-34 percent they're a bit more apt to say divided government is the better way to go.
In addition to independents it’s possible McCain’s argument could hold some appeal to movable voters, who likewise are less rooted in partisanship.
In October 2006, more likely voters – 58 percent overall, including 58 percent of independents – preferred to see the Democrats control Congress, which was the outcome of that election, driven by frustration with the war in Iraq.
Preference for control of Congress
In 2008 In 2006
Dem Rep Dem Rep
All 50% 42 58% 38
Dems 94 3 96 3
Inds 37 45 58 32
Reps 10 86 11 87
There’s a sharp gender gap today; women by 56-36 percent prefer Democratic control of Congress while men by 50-43 percent would like to see it go to the Republicans. Whites split evenly; blacks, the Democratic Party’s single most loyal group, almost unanimously favor its continued control.
On the question of whether divided or single-party control is better in general, 50 percent overall side with single-party control – Democrats most, independents least. Thirty percent favor divided government – independents and Republicans most. And 14 percent have no preference either way.
Preference for Congress/presidency
Same Different No diff.
All 50% 30 14
Dems 63 13 16
Inds 34 43 17
Reps 49 37 8
October 26, 2008 in 2008 General Election | Permalink | User Comments (84)
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McCain has given absolutely NO argument on why anybody should vote FOR him. All it is is just bashing Obama.
Posted by: Joseph | Oct 26, 2008 8:16:03 AM
Joseph,
McCain has gotten pretty pathetic. Can't win on his own merit so he bashes Obama with lies.
Posted by: Jwench | Oct 26, 2008 8:28:20 AM
Zogby's daily tracking within 3. Start folding the drapes
Posted by: vs | Oct 26, 2008 8:42:34 AM
VS,
Zogby is a charleton and everybody knows it.
Posted by: Joseph | Oct 26, 2008 8:55:37 AM
We can see how "divided government" has worked the past two years. Everything the democrats attempted to accomplish was overcome first by the republicans filibustering and second by Bush's vetos. Yeah, worked real well.
Posted by: counting crows | Oct 26, 2008 8:59:09 AM
Well, well, well..... this dirty business with Sarah Palin just keeps getting better and better all the time. But certainly it comes as no surprise of just how much has no business making decisions about ANYTHING!! I honestly doubt that she would qualify as a parking meter attendant.
It seems that Sarah Palin is not only "one of the good old boys", but she reeks of it! What an obscene joke that John McCain and the Republican Party/GOP has touted her as "taking on these good old boys network". I actually think that she is much worse than this GOB's network, because at the same time, she is UNBELIEVABLY AND SUPERBLY IGNORANT!
In MY opinion, the only difference between Sarah Palin and this "good old boys" network is that she wears "VERY" EXPENSIVE DRESSES and ACCESSORIES, AND SPORTS "VERY" EXPENSIVE DO'S AND LIPSTICK!!!
Let this be a lesson on just how much not only INTELLIGENCE, COMMON SENSE AND EDUCATON are required when placed in positions of authority, but INTEGRITY is required as well...... otherwise, innocent people stand to pay for that ignorance.
No doubt, Sarah Palin never bothered to "really" understand the bidding process and conflicts of interest or lucrative contracts, just as she has never bothered reading the US Constitution. I guess that she was working on "instinct".
What is the next episode of "As The World of Sarah Palin Turns?"
Go read the AP press report just released about her dealings on the bidding for the pipeline.
Posted by: CW | Oct 26, 2008 8:59:32 AM
McBush and his unqualified Barbie doll are imploding based on thier choices and poor leadership style and reputation. They continue to follow the script of the republican political machine and they continue to try to divide our country AT A TIME WHEN WE NEED TO BE UNITED MORE THAN EVER!Is it any wonder why Americans want a change from people like Bush and Cheney and their politicalm operatives?
Posted by: savoymt | Oct 26, 2008 9:05:47 AM
McCain represents the best of the PAST and Obama the best of the FUTURE.
Posted by: FM | Oct 26, 2008 9:06:20 AM
9 more days and this will all be over. I can't wait. It seems as if this election was going on for 2 years.
Posted by: Joseph | Oct 26, 2008 9:11:48 AM
WOW, Zogby is a charleton whereas MSNBC, NBC, ABC, CBS, NYTimes are FAIR !!!
Posted by: vs | Oct 26, 2008 9:13:53 AM
Whine and cheese top the menu at the McCain/Palin Pity Party Nov 4th.
Posted by: Clint | Oct 26, 2008 9:22:55 AM
McCain is loosing touch with realty on "Meet the Press", and refuses to believe numbers in polls that he doesn't agree with.
Posted by: laojie | Oct 26, 2008 9:34:15 AM
Obama Campaign Cuts Off Interviews With Florida TV Station
Barack Obama's campaign killed all interviews with a Florida TV station after Sen. Joe Biden, the Democratic vice presidential nominee, faced tough and critical questions from a reporter at the Orlando station, the Orlando Sentinel reported .
During a satellite video Thursday, WFTV's Barbara West quoted Karl Marx and asked Biden how Obama's comment to "Joe the Plumber," about spreading the wealth wasn't being Marxist.
"Are you joking?," Biden asked.
West replied, "No."
Later in the interview West questioned Biden about his comments that if Obama wins the election next month, he would be tested early on as president and wanted to know if Biden was implying America was no longer the world's leading power.
"I don't know who's writing your questions," Biden asked her.
The Obama camp then killed a WFTV interview with Biden's wife Jill, according to an Orlando Sentinel blog.
"This cancellation is non-negotiable, and further opportunities for your station to interview with this campaign are unlikely, at best for the duration of the remaining days until the election," wrote Laura K. McGinnis, Central Florida communications director for the Obama campaign, according to the Sentinel.
I guess the truth hurts and "The One" can't handle the truth.
Posted by: News you will not find reported here | Oct 26, 2008 9:46:31 AM
The Party which gave us Bush is the same which wants to give us McCain/Palin.
Their offer of Bush has not been tastey and people have all reasons to be skeptical in accepting their offer this time.
Posted by: FM | Oct 26, 2008 10:09:57 AM
I really see no difference. As long as the government does the right things to help the people *overall* and not just a few groups, then it's okay.
One thing people keep forgetting is that the Repubs had an unified government for 6 years under Bush between 2001 and 2006. If most people thought things were bad during these years, especially the war in Iraq, then it's the fault of the unified Repub government.
So in the end, I really see no difference. If a divisional government works best, why did even the Repubs try to control everything? It seems partisan views will always exist in this country, and now that the Repubs know they will loose both the WH and Congress, they are using this argument to state their case for a divisional government when they had been in overall control for more than 6 years even 8 if one counts the Dems not fully were in control of Congress after 2006.
(shakes head sadly) Seems the Repubs are being hyprocrits. They don't mind an unified government as long as they are in control.
Posted by: GWP | Oct 26, 2008 10:11:30 AM
Our forefathers said never let a absolute control go to one party.
Obama's Best friends of 20 years. All hate the American Government and want the country taken over and the Government Changed.
Wanting The wealth of the Country redistributed. The power redistributed and a new Government.
Funny how that is obama's main champaign goal. Change your Government.
Not a coincidence, All of them worked hard getting Obama from the south side of Chicago to where he is, and hope to get him in the position to do just that.
They worked long hours, gave their money and collected other peoples money to help get him here. There goal was a new government.
Obama like them has taken on that goal.
Wright Hates your Government and wants it changed.
Michelle Hates your Government and wants it Changed.
Ayers Hates your Government and wants it changed.
Bernardine Dohrne Hates your Government and wants it changed
Soros Hates your Government and wants it Changed.
Louis Farrkham Hates your Government and wants it Changed.
Pfegler Hates your Government and wants it changed
Khalid Al Mansour Hates your Government and wants it changed
(C. Rice, j.jackson, sharpton all want the constitution rewritten)
These people do not want to just clean it up, fix it. They mean A whole new Government. Re write the Constitution and all the laws and everything.
What has Obama said since the first day of his campaign, I will Change the Government.
No way is that a Coincidence, That the Majority of Obama's best friends in Life all want the same thing?
How many of your close personal friends want to Destory the American Government.
Posted by: seah | Oct 26, 2008 10:22:02 AM
I CAN NOT WAIT FOR ALL TO TO BE OVER!!!
But god help us if obama get's in.
All we can do is hope for the best. We are going to need it.......
Posted by: carol | Oct 26, 2008 10:29:37 AM
Palin is "annoyed" with Katie Couric because she asked "irrelevant question".... GET THIS - HERE'S HER QUOTE - - “Last time I was here (Ft Wayne, Indiana) I got to tell a crowd that I had to give a national interview that didn’t go so well,” she said. “And it was because I was kind of annoyed with the questions that I was being asked because I thought they were kind of irrelevant to, you know, national security issues and getting our economy back on track, so I kind of showed some of that annoyance.” DID YOU GET THAT?? SHE THINKS NATIONAL SECURITY ISSUES AND OUR ECONOMY GETTING BACK ON TRACK ARE "IRRELEVANT"!!! This woman is a disgrace to humans.
Posted by: Julie | Oct 26, 2008 10:36:28 AM
This is exactly what I have been saying this whole election that the public manipulations of Obama campaign are winning the quiet vote for those of the whole party of Democrats. Why should we now swing all the power to only one side of the senate, congress,speaker, and possibly Presidency, we need a Balance in our government. When need a fair balance to oversee the both sides of bills,laws, and use of public funds in Washington. It's ok to be concerned, but to vote only one party based on influence by that same party is not what we need in our country. BAlance folks, a Balance to be heard, to watch the checks and balances. This is for our best interests. Study your party's voting stlye for the past 2 years and see from that if they should end up with total power across the line???
Posted by: Mel | Oct 26, 2008 10:44:42 AM
Sen. Barack Obama, the Democratic nominee, brings far more promise to the office. In a time of grave economic crisis, he displays thoughtful analysis, enlists wise counsel and operates with a cool, steady hand. The same cannot be said of Sen. McCain.
Since his early acknowledgement that economic policy is not his strong suit, Sen. McCain has stumbled and fumbled badly in dealing with the accelerating crisis as it emerged. He declared that "the fundamentals of our economy are strong" at 9 a.m. one day and by 11 a.m. was describing an economy in crisis. He is both a longtime advocate of less market regulation and a supporter of the huge taxpayer-funded Wall Street bailout. His behavior in this crisis -- erratic is a kind description -- shows him to be ill-equipped to lead the essential effort of reining in a runaway financial system and setting an anxious nation on course to economic recovery.
More and more honest-to-God Republicans now believe Obama is more functional, more able to navigate us through the problems of the times than John McKKKain. Newspapers seem to agree. Many that endorsed George Bush four years ago have gone for Obama this time. These include two Texas papers, the Houston Chronicle and the Austin-American Statesman, as well as the Denver Post, Chicago Sun-Times, Kansas City Star, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, and even the Salt Lake Tribune____
Republicans for Obama._____
Posted by: republicansareliars | Oct 26, 2008 11:00:06 AM
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