The Numbers

A Run at the Latest Data from ABC's Poobah of Polling, Gary Langer

Gary Langer is director of polling at ABC News, where he's covered the beat of public opinion for nearly 20 years - conducting and analyzing ABC News polls, evaluating data from other sources and setting the news division's standards for poll reporting. Langer has won two Emmy awards for ABC's reporting of public opinion polls in Iraq, and The Numbers blog was honored this year as winner of the 2008 Iowa Gallup Award for Excellent Journalism Using Polls.

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Palin's Chance

October 02, 2008 5:18 PM

Our poll report today underscores the world of doubt facing Sarah Palin in advance of tonight’s debate. The table below adds some historical context.

It’s clear that the top of the ticket drives the vote. Nonetheless we do ask people if a vice-presidential pick makes them more or less likely to support the team. In our latest poll, 23 percent say Palin makes them more likely to vote for McCain, 32 percent, less likely – a net negative of 9 points.

There are a couple of ways to look at this. One is that none of the VP candidates we’ve previously measured ever approached a 32 percent “less likely” number. It’s partly mitigated by Palin’s “more likely” result, but it means she’s unusually divisive.

The other is that only one previous vice-presidential nominee in our data ran a net negative in vote effect – Dan Quayle in 1988. Clearly it wasn’t decisive, since George H.W. Bush won that election. But Quayle does not look to have helped. (And Barack Obama certainly hopes he's no Mike Dukakis.)

Other comparisons with Quayle are mixed. He did substantially worse than Palin in personal favorability, but better than in terms of being seen as qualified for the presidency. Not good – just better.

A challenge in all this is that Quayle, in four years as vice president, never turned around those initial doubts about his competence. Tonight is probably Palin's single best chance.

                             More    Less    No 
                            likely  likely  diff.    Net 
9/29/08
Obama's choice of Biden      25      13     61      +12
McCain's choice of Palin     23      32     45       -9

9/4/08
Obama's choice of Biden      22      11     66      +11
McCain's choice of Palin     25      19     55       +6

7/25/04
Kerry's choice of Edwards    24       9     66      +15

8/7/00
Gore's choice of Lieberman   15      10     73       +5

7/29/00
Bush's choice of Cheney      14       6     78       +8

8/15/96
Dole's choice of Kemp        18       6     75      +12

9/19/88
Bush's choice of Quayle       7      19     68      -12

9/18/88
Dukakis' choice of Bentsen   20       6     71      +14

7/12/84
Mondale's choice of Ferraro  22      19     49       +3

(Among registered voters except 8/7/00, gen pop)

October 2, 2008 in 2008 General Election | Permalink | User Comments (70)

User Comments

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Providing she remembers what they have cramed into her head this week,One hell of a note when someone has to fill you full of info to debate.She has no knowledge of her own.She didn't even know what the Surprime court has done....

Posted by: indp voter | Oct 2, 2008 5:40:36 PM

We all know what saves Palin doing worse in such polls than Quale: she's a woman.

If a man had given her answers to Katie Couric, he'd be sitting at home right know, drinking one six pack after another.

Posted by: helen | Oct 2, 2008 5:43:31 PM

She'll be fine tonight because there won't really be follow-up questions. Her knowledge of the subjects are superficial enough for her to continue to BS her way through. She will try and attack Biden so that he is responding to the attack rather than people paying attention to what she knows or doesn't. Kind of like her speech at the Republican convention.

Posted by: MIguy | Oct 2, 2008 5:53:46 PM

The standards for the second highest office in our nation has reached a new low.

McCain, on FOX of course, compared her to Clinton. He said people questioned Clinton since he was from Arkansas.

Clinton? He was a Rhodes Scholar. Palin has a journalism degree.

And it's not the lack of education that bothers people. It's the lack of credibility.

It's the fact her own party has been afraid to let her speak. (And it seems with good reason)

It's the fact that the GOP shoveled a bunch of BS at the convention, had her read ONE sarcastic speech, and everyone thought she was the second coming.

Then the truth came out and showed half of what was said was just misleading fabrications.

Personally, I just can't stand her views. Way too right wing. Her international views, if you could even understand them, indicate she lives in Cold War America - just like John McCain.

McCain and company USED Sarah Palin for political reasons. They did not chose her based on ability and we all know that. Even Karl Rove acknowledged that!

In the end, she will be the Dems MVP.

I don't like her at all, but she could have been a contender if they had waited until she was prepared for the job.

Now, she will just be a laughing stock and may surpass Quale as the worst VP pick ever.

Posted by: History will not be kind | Oct 2, 2008 5:56:01 PM

The spin coming out of the McCain camp is pathetic...if this woman does not perform well tonight...as in reasonably answering questions, demonstrating an understanding of issue, not just a regurgitation of talking points and being able to engage, in any meaningful way with the many issues that face America, she should be dismissed with the derision of a people being led to ruin by an out-of-control "Maverick". Anything less would be to betray this country.

Posted by: Bliss | Oct 2, 2008 6:00:45 PM

Biden needs to start the debate with a question for Palin - "Do you want me to treat you like a lady or like an equal?" and then go from there.

Posted by: RENEE | Oct 2, 2008 6:07:41 PM

.She didn't even know what the Surprime court has done....
....And it seems that all those smart Lawyers, Bankers and Thieves sure know their business when it comes to running a Government as they sure have made a fine mess of our economy.

Posted by: david | Oct 2, 2008 6:13:56 PM

Palin is an embarrassment to all women across the USA, I can't believe this woman... you know what? I'm fed up. I'm a life long Republican, and tomorrow I'm changing my party affiliation... I'm tired of the inconsistencies the Republicans have dished out on us American's. People tonight I'm convinced that this isn't a Race or Gender Issue. This is an American issue. We can not allow McCain or Palin run us aground.

I'm fed up!!! I am an American and my vote will count!!!

Posted by: Ruth | Oct 2, 2008 10:00:12 PM

Did she just give a shout out to a school in Alaska?!?! Is this a rodeo event or a debate. She's driving me nuts!! I'm seriously changing my political party affiliation tomorrow... what a disgrace... OMG. No wonder other countries laugh at us. because of people like her. grhhh!!

Posted by: Ruth | Oct 2, 2008 10:19:08 PM

Believe it or not, Palin has more experience than Obama. He may sound polished but his motives are tarnished. How can you trust someone who sat in a church listening to a hate spewing pastor for 20 years? And said that was not the man he knew. He's a fake all the way. Palin is the real deal and it scares the hell out of the liberal media brainwashed Americans. I used to be a very liberal Democrat until I realized the socialist agenda promoted by the party. By the way, I'm not white.

Posted by: Lula | Oct 2, 2008 10:59:46 PM

I have never been more disappointed in an analysis the media as I was tonight. Why did literally no reporter or media analyst hold Palin accountable for her lack of substance, her demeanor and absolute display of ridiculousness during this debate? I am a middle class, educated woman who found her to be nothing short of brains or experience when it comes to the level of office she is running for. She gave no facts, no substance and no direct answers to any question she was given. In short, I laughed pretty much through the entire debate anytime she spoke. I am not sure what debate the media was watching, but it certainly was not the circus show I witnessed. What a disgrace - Biden made her look like a fool and America is so smitten with her folksy nonsense, that no one is taking the office she is running for as seriously as they should be. Absolutely disgraceful.

Posted by: Kathleen Whitley-Harm | Oct 2, 2008 11:26:21 PM

Wow! More ignorant folks in America that I ever expected! Reading these morons claiming to to be "lifelong Republicans" and others who can't stand Palin's views and the best one of all, her lack of education, citing Clinton as a Rhodes Scholar, I am going to vomit. Clinton is most known for getting the head of State. Please people, do not vote with your heads like Clinton did, vote with your children and their future in mind. If our forefathers saw what the Democratic Party stood for and mostly against, they would prefer to remain dead. We are already decaying morally & spiritually in our Country. Wake up and lets stop this ridiculous notion that the Democrats are for the working class and the Republicans are the elite class. This misconception is what drives the under educated portion of our society. I believe most people are "God Fearing" and moral, so please do what is good for your Country and not what you think is good! God, Please bless America!

Posted by: Brian | Oct 2, 2008 11:37:02 PM

I agree with Lula, how can you trust a man like Obama. He may be polished and put on a good show but America doesn't need another movie star! One good test is if Hollywood is for him it can't be good for America! On the other hand, at least Palin is real and more in touch with the "real" people on main street. I think it's ironic - all the women posting blogs complaining about Palin. Isn't putting Mrs. Palin of office one step closer to elevating the women's movement in America? Yet look at all the postings from women spewing their dislike for her??? You've got to wonder what thats all about - jelousy, or just the desire to have another "movie star" like Obahma or Clinton in office???? Isn't it sad how the left wing media has dumbed down america to the point where we equate the people we put in office with weather or not they are liked by Entertainment Tonight - SAD!!! As far as experience I am still waiting for someone - ANYONE - to tell me exactly what has Obahma accomplished???? Someone please tell me, and please don't say he was a "community organizer". If we go off of his prior record of "organizing communities" - GOD HELP US! If you look at it from this perspective, yes Sarah Palin obviously has more experience! Even a mayor of an Alaskan town would have more experience than a one term lacky senator form Illinois! And while were at it why isn't the main stream media looking into the people who are running his campaigne - ex CEO's of Freddie Mack & Fanny May. The very people who have contributed to the current financial mess in America. Is this an indication of where he'll take America??? Let's pray American wakes up from their "dumbed down" stupper and does the right thing.

Posted by: tired of liberal B.S. | Oct 2, 2008 11:45:13 PM

Brian, You ask how can anyone trust Obama? I further pose how can anyone trust McCain. He is clearly a liar. Time and again he has lied. On earmarks, on Obama raising taxes and soooo much more! And, McCain has changed his positions so often trying to be the populist! He can't be trusted on immigration, he can't be trusted on guns and he can't be trusted with anything he says because he is such a liar.

Posted by: Phil | Oct 2, 2008 11:58:38 PM

Sarah Palin said nothing in the debate tonight that would say me to vote for the Republican ticket on Nov 4th. As a woman, she does not connect with me; I am neither a hockey/soccer mom nor could I probably afford her glasses, clothes, or shoes as a true middle class woman. I was hoping Sarah would come across as strong and assertive as she did at the Republican convention but I was left unimpressed after the debate. The more I see her parading her children across the stage late at night on school nightgs when they should be in bed, especially the baby, angers me because they appear to be props for Sarah. And lastly, working in the healthcare field, I was most disturbed by the Republican stance on providing healthcare to the middle class and those that are uninsured or under-insured.

Posted by: LucyMO | Oct 3, 2008 12:01:08 AM

Palin cramming for her big test failed. She came across like a dumb puppet.

McCain and Palin: THE BRIDGE TO NOWHERE!

Posted by: disgusted | Oct 3, 2008 12:02:27 AM

Palen proved tonight just what she is - a soccer mom. Nothing wrong with a soccer mom, but; I don't want one for Vice President. I can hear her now,"ya betcha, Mr. Prime Minister!" I found her embarrassing. Is this what anyone wants to see representing the USA in one of the highest offices? I certainly don't. If she were to have to take over the presidency - we'd be the laughing stock of the world - again.
On the other hand, Biden, came across as intelligent and able to hold his own among other world leaders. I can see him as Vice President. Joe has my vote hands down!

Posted by: Donna | Oct 3, 2008 12:30:15 AM

Palin won tonight by a large margin.

Did you notice how Joe was breathing hard each time she stung back with a response.

I believe McCain and Palin can make a diffrence in our lives - for the best...

Florida, Nevada, NH wake up my friends and follow my lead and bring these two to the White House.

BTW - Joe made reference to Scranton Pa - highest foreclosure of homes in the nation - he aint helping!!

Obama/Oprah Chicagoland - highest murder rate in the nation - higher than Iraq!, highest unemployment rate in the nnation and the school system is the worst in the nation. but he rather be in Hollywood instead of helping his constituents... Way to go for change and prosperity...McCain/Palin have a track record for working for the people.

Posted by: James Pridgen | Oct 3, 2008 12:56:54 AM

Watching the debate was like watch ventriloquist dummy sitting on the lap of John McCain. Everything she said was John this John that she sounded more like the first lady or his daughter then a VP candidate. She never answered a question. Her whole speech because that's what it was and looked like as if it was preplanned was weak. But now I see why they don't let her talk much they just don't have enough material written down for this act.

Posted by: LANATIVE | Oct 3, 2008 1:21:14 AM

Once again Sarah Palin proved how unqualified she is for the job. I don't want a Joe Six Pack making decisions for me in the White House, we have that already.

So many women have worked hard to make strides in their careers and here come Sara Palin the most unqualified woman on the planet pushed to the American people for Sport.

John McCain should be ashamed. We don't want Palin sitting in the first or the second chair pushing the wrong bottons because she is clearly clueless.

If Palin were a man this nightmare would have been over long ago. I feel sorry for our men who would never be given such a chance.

We want smart intelligent not someone who it took 6 years to get an undergrad degree and McCain who was ranked 894 out of 899 in his class in Annapolis Naval Academy. We have Bush who was ranked at the bottom of his class and look what that got us.

Watching Palin is very painful and women are sick and tired and finally speaking out about this awful choice.

There are many Republican women who are more than qualified and should have been chosen. But good old McCain had to place a bet to change the dynamics and he lost big time.

After actually seeing him LIE TO DAVID LETTERMAN, SAID HE WAS LEAVING FOR WASHINGTON ASAP BECAUSE THE ECONOMIC WAS IN A CRATER, THEN DAVE PUT THE CAMERA ON HIM IN KATIE COURIC'S STUDIO GETTING HIS MAKE UP COMPLETED TO GIVE HER AN INTERVIEW. WHAT A LIAR!

DAVEID EXPOSED HIM AND HE SHOULD HAVE. WE CANNOT TRUST MCCAIN TO EVER BE HONEST AND PALIN IS FOLLOWING THE PLAY BOOK AND SHE'S TOO EXTREME.

I BET THE CONSERVATIVES ARE SURPRISED AND QUITE ANGRY TO KNOW THAT PALIN AGREED WITH BIDEN ON THE GAY PARTNERS HEALTH ISSUE. SURPRISE! ENOUGH

Posted by: VERN | Oct 3, 2008 1:28:05 AM

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