The Numbers
A Run at the Latest Data from ABC's Poobah of Polling, Gary Langer
Gary Langer is director of polling at ABC News, where he's covered the beat of public opinion for nearly 20 years - conducting and analyzing ABC News polls, evaluating data from other sources and setting the news division's standards for poll reporting. Langer has won two Emmy awards for ABC's reporting of public opinion polls in Iraq, and The Numbers blog was honored this year as winner of the 2008 Iowa Gallup Award for Excellent Journalism Using Polls.
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Pre-Debate: An Epic Snit
October 07, 2008 5:29 PM
A little polling background for the debate tonight:
-Americans are in an epic snit. In a Gallup poll completed Sunday only 9 percent said they’re satisfied with the way things are going in the United States, the fewest since Gallup first asked the question in 1979. Ninety percent are dissatisfied. The only election year since 1984 in which satisfaction was even close to this low was in 1992, but even then it bottomed out higher, 14 percent, and earlier, in June.
-Sixty-nine percent named some aspect of the economy when asked the most important problem facing the country. In our own national ABC/Post poll last week, 53 percent called it the single most important issue in their vote choice, with all other mentions in the single digits.
-Also in Gallup’s data, 25 percent approved of the president’s job performance, a new Bush low for Gallup, while 70 percent disapproved. That’s very much like the 26-70 percent in our ABC/Post poll last week.
-This is not a hold-your-nose election; majorities of Americans have a favorable opinion of McCain and Obama alike – 55 percent and 62 percent respectively in the Gallup poll. That may make it a hard decision for swing voters not rooted in partisanship. (McCain’s favorable rating is the same as Bush’s at about this time in 2004; Obama’s is 10 points better than John Kerry’s.)
-As reported in our last two national polls and our Ohio poll yesterday, economic concerns have turned the dynamic in Obama’s favor; he leads McCain in better understanding the economic problems Americans are having and, by extension, in trust to deal with the issue. Obama’s also built back to a 2-1 lead in trust to “bring needed change” to Washington. But he’s still dogged by the experience question, a continued opening for McCain. McCain, on the other hand, is even more dogged by the suspicion he’d be a Bush retread.
-This dynamic has pushed Obama into leading status in most (not all) national polls, and competitive or leading status in many battleground states. In airworthy state polls just out today, he’s +10 in Pennsylvania, +8 in New Hampshire, +7 in Nevada, +5 in Wisconsin and dead even in North Carolina. Yesterday we ourselves had him +6 in Ohio.
Advantage Obama - but with 19 percent of likely voters still movable.
October 7, 2008 in 2008 General Election | Permalink | User Comments (39)
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Factcheck.org is owned by The Annenberg Foundation. Factcheck published the “fight the smears” story about Obama’s Certificate of Live Birth (COLB). The Chicago Annenberg Challenge is the organization of Bill Ayers that Barack Obama chaired for years. The American Public has been HAD.
Posted by: Mike | Oct 7, 2008 5:37:52 PM
Obama and Ayers are, and continue to be, casual acquaintances. They served on some board together, both were appointed. Ayers is a professor at the University of Illinois, and the son of the former chair of ComEd...40 years ago he was a student radical. So were a lot of other people. 40 years ago the geezer was a POW in Viet Nam, collaborating with the Viet Cong and admitting "war crimes" 40 years ago the skeezer was a little kid in Alaska trying to stay warm. Enough already.
Posted by: NatFrankie | Oct 7, 2008 5:49:12 PM
I am curious to know how is that like many polls by state, your ABCNews/ Wash. poll shows Obama ahead in Ohio where he is significantly underperforming John Kerry's 2004 numbers by double digits (12 points) among independents (30% of the voters in Ohio).
OH: Obama 46 to McCain 45 among Indies
OH: Kerry 58 to Bush 41 among Indies.
Can Barack Obama win states like OH, PA, FL, NH, and MN underperforming Kerry 04 numbers by double digits among independent voters?
Posted by: Angel | Oct 7, 2008 5:57:48 PM
If John MCCain is such a maverick! Then why did he drop out of the Michigan race? Does he not like a good fight?
Danny
Posted by: Danny | Oct 7, 2008 6:03:39 PM
mccain first decision as possible president was to pick the second most qualified person in his judgment to lead the united states should something happen to him
he picked sarah palin
when the economic crisis hit the fundamentals of our economy were strong,
and then the fundamentals were suppose to be workers
and then we need a commission to study this
and then dont bail out this bank
then do bail out think bank
mccains judgment is severely in question here
not only with the palin pick but the whole economic crisis, mccain has nothing and is out of touch
and sarah palin is the scariest person ever to be a heart beat away from teh presidency
did she look angry in that couric interview?
no she had no idea what was going on, she can read up on the answers she missed and she can make up reasons why she did so terribly
but the fact remains all that was after the fact, if interviews and debates are the only thing we get to judge a person on running for office to gauge weather or not they are capable of dealing and reacting to situations under stress and testing their knowledge base
palin wouldnt even bother answering the questions at the debate
and defending john mccain? nah why would she do that
now she has people yelling kill him at her rallies, and Treason!
and mccain has people yelling a terrorist
meanwhile the economy is still going to hell, and basically what we are hearing from the mccain camp is
the fundamentals are strong, they dont care about the economy, they just want to get elected, so they want to make the other guy scary
but nothing
nothing
is more scary then palin, and nothing is more scary then mccains judgment as a contender as commander and chief to have his first decision be the sarah palin pick
Posted by: Bhrandon | Oct 7, 2008 6:04:39 PM
The only reason why Obama appeals to many voters is they think if he is elected it will usher in a whole new era of hand-outs. The reality is that people will still have to work, still have to pay their mortgage and if they don't, they'll still be foreclosed upon. Government-subsidized homeownership is not part of his plan.
Posted by: Great Big Sigh ... | Oct 7, 2008 6:05:06 PM
Could some explain to me why the Obama and the rest of the Democratics in the Senate voted down the Kyl Amdt. No. 507; To protect families, family farms and small businesses by raising the death tax exemption to $5 million and reducing the maximum death tax rate to no more than 35%, to extend college tuition deduction, to extend the student loan interest deduction, to extend the teacher classroom deduction, to protect senior citizens from higher taxes on their retirement income, to maintain U.S. financial market competitiveness, and to promote economic growth by extending the lower tax rates on dividends and capital gains?
Posted by: Doug Lindsey | Oct 7, 2008 6:06:36 PM
Doug, probably because the republicans filled the bill with pork by-products and they had no choice,but to vote it down.
Posted by: Miki | Oct 7, 2008 6:18:21 PM
OBAMA CERTAINLY CANNOT MAKE ANY CLAIMS ABOUT UNITY !!! HE HAS TO BE THE MOST POLARIZING CANDIDATE IN US HISTORY
Posted by: disillusioned2008 | Oct 7, 2008 6:46:18 PM
2 TRILLION DOLLARS HAVE BEEN LOST IN RETIREMENT SAVINGS IN THE LAST YEAR
But McCain and Palin want to "turn the page" on the economic crisis. Why?
Because Americans know McCain has no plan. He is out of touch. He still think the fundamentals of our economy are strong.
So McCain and Palin now believe that name calling will solve our problems.
Posted by: Truth Hurts the GOP | Oct 7, 2008 6:48:15 PM
Republicans are worried about 'Guilt by Association'!(Obama & Ayers). They didn't worry about it when it was a known fact that G.W. Bush was associated with the terrorist Osama bin-Laden through his brother Salem bin-laden. They didn't worry about Bush's association with his grandfather who was Adolph Hitler's banker financier. What goes Republicans????
Posted by: mary | Oct 7, 2008 6:49:26 PM
Miki - You mean like they voted down the porked up bailout bill?? What a joke!!
Posted by: fairelection2008 | Oct 7, 2008 6:49:46 PM
OBAMA AND THE MSM ARE THE POLITICAL EQUIVALENT OF "ANYTHING GOES" WALL STREET CULTURE
- Pal with terrorists, no problem
- Listen to anti-american rehetoric for 20 years, no problem
- Blatantly lie to the whole country about the Wright relationship, no problem
- Finance your home with tainted money, no problem
- Finance your campaign with "mysterious" foreign donors, no problem
- Hurl the racist charge against an ex-President who's done the most for black americans, no problem
- Lie about McCain's record of reform in Washington, no problem
WAKE UP AMERICA!!
Posted by: fob | Oct 7, 2008 6:51:03 PM
OBAMA CERTAINLY CANNOT MAKE ANY CLAIMS ABOUT UNITY !!! HE HAS TO BE THE MOST POLARIZING CANDIDATE IN US HISTORY
----------------------
Sorry, Palin took that prize. And she's only been at it a few weeks!
Posted by: Truth Hurts the GOP | Oct 7, 2008 6:51:53 PM
OCTOBER SURPRISE!!! Remember that the terrorists struck Spain just 3 days before their election.
Posted by: mary | Oct 7, 2008 6:52:28 PM
The brilliance that is Sarah Palin:
That’s why I say, I like ever American I’m speaking with were ill about this position that we have been put in where it is the tax payers looking to bailout.
But ultimately, what the bailout does is help those who are concerned about the health care reform that is needed to help shore up the economy– Helping the — Oh, it’s got to be about job creation too. Shoring up our economy and putting it back on the right track. So health care reform and reducing taxes and reining in spending has got to accompany tax reductions and tax relief for Americas. A
And trade we’ve got to see trade as opportunity, not as a competitive scary thing. But 1 in 5 jobs being created in the trade sector today. We’ve got to look at that as more opportunity. ALl those things under the umbrella of job creation.
This bailout is a part of that.
Posted by: Words of a Self Proclaimed | Oct 7, 2008 6:54:33 PM
The 9% consists of the following:
Bush Family
Cheyney Family
McCain Family
Palin Family
All the CEO's who got humongous bonuses and severance packages.
Posted by: J | Oct 7, 2008 6:56:54 PM
OBAMA CERTAINLY CANNOT MAKE ANY CLAIMS ABOUT UNITY !!! HE HAS TO BE THE MOST POLARIZING CANDIDATE IN US HISTORY
Posted by: disillusioned2008 | Oct 7, 2008 6:46:18 PM
Funny, they used to say that about Hillary Clinton.
Posted by: J | Oct 7, 2008 7:00:10 PM
seansatx,
Yes, you want to stay away from the birth certificate because you CANNOT PRODUCE the birth certificate!!
Posted by: fob | Oct 7, 2008 7:01:36 PM
Because the left-leaning press controls "sound-bites", there is a lot of disinformation concerning the financial crisis. The Financial crisis was caused by the housing crisis, and housing crisis was caused by the corruption in Fannie-Freddie, and Fannie-Freddie has been run by Democrats for 20 YEARS, then McCain’s bill to curb and regulate Fannie-Freddie in 2005 was BLOCKED, and now we find Democrats Obama, Dodd, Kerry are the top three in contributions from the Fannie-Freddie lobbies, AND look at the Democrats Franklin Raines (OBAMA CAMPAIGN), Jamie Gorelick, and Jim Johnson who RAN Fannie-Freddie and RAKED IN $ MILLIONS in CEO bonuses proven to be CORRUPT when the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight's report came out in 2006 ---- All fingers point to DEMOCRATS in charge of this financial area, with Barney Frank overseeing!!!!
Posted by: Mark - Indiana | Oct 7, 2008 7:24:33 PM
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