The Numbers

A Run at the Latest Data from ABC's Poobah of Polling, Gary Langer

Gary Langer is director of polling at ABC News, where he's covered the beat of public opinion for nearly 20 years - conducting and analyzing ABC News polls, evaluating data from other sources and setting the news division's standards for poll reporting. Langer has won two Emmy awards for ABC's reporting of public opinion polls in Iraq, and The Numbers blog was honored this year as winner of the 2008 Iowa Gallup Award for Excellent Journalism Using Polls.

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Pre-Debate: An Epic Snit

October 07, 2008 5:29 PM

A little polling background for the debate tonight:

-Americans are in an epic snit. In a Gallup poll completed Sunday only 9 percent said they’re satisfied with the way things are going in the United States, the fewest since Gallup first asked the question in 1979. Ninety percent are dissatisfied. The only election year since 1984 in which satisfaction was even close to this low was in 1992, but even then it bottomed out higher, 14 percent, and earlier, in June.

-Sixty-nine percent named some aspect of the economy when asked the most important problem facing the country. In our own national ABC/Post poll last week, 53 percent called it the single most important issue in their vote choice, with all other mentions in the single digits.

-Also in Gallup’s data, 25 percent approved of the president’s job performance, a new Bush low for Gallup, while 70 percent disapproved. That’s very much like the 26-70 percent in our ABC/Post poll last week.

-This is not a hold-your-nose election; majorities of Americans have a favorable opinion of McCain and Obama alike – 55 percent and 62 percent respectively in the Gallup poll. That may make it a hard decision for swing voters not rooted in partisanship. (McCain’s favorable rating is the same as Bush’s at about this time in 2004; Obama’s is 10 points better than John Kerry’s.)

-As reported in our last two national polls and our Ohio poll yesterday, economic concerns have turned the dynamic in Obama’s favor; he leads McCain in better understanding the economic problems Americans are having and, by extension, in trust to deal with the issue. Obama’s also built back to a 2-1 lead in trust to “bring needed change” to Washington. But he’s still dogged by the experience question, a continued opening for McCain. McCain, on the other hand, is even more dogged by the suspicion he’d be a Bush retread.

-This dynamic has pushed Obama into leading status in most (not all) national polls, and competitive or leading status in many battleground states. In airworthy state polls just out today, he’s +10 in Pennsylvania, +8 in New Hampshire, +7 in Nevada, +5 in Wisconsin and dead even in North Carolina. Yesterday we ourselves had him +6 in Ohio.

Advantage Obama - but with 19 percent of likely voters still movable.

October 7, 2008 in 2008 General Election | Permalink | User Comments (39)

User Comments

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Millions of Americans had their life savings wiped out when one savings-and-loan after another went down because of the criminality of repugnant swindlers such as Charles Keating. KEATING IS A CONVICTED FELEON who defrauded millions out of their life savings, while at the same time he donated more money to McCain's campaign than any other contributor. AND WHAT DID MCCAIN DO WHEN HE LEARNED OF KEATING'S ARREST? HE ILLEGALLY TRIED TO USE HIS INFLUCEN TO KEEP HIS GOOD FRIEND AND SINGLE LARGEST CAMPAIGN CONTRIBUTOR OUT OF JAIL...... Did McCain care about the millions who lost their life savings in the savings and loan collapse? No, he only cared about the felon Keating who gave McCain money.

Posted by: Sallie | Oct 7, 2008 7:25:33 PM

Just for all you OBAMA "MESSIAH" people who do ya think is going to pay for all of his great plans he has for US all. Well in two words "WE ARE". When he gets elected, and he will be elected!!!! Don,t start gripeing when you see your paychecks start to dwindle, and dwindle they will. Remember you heard it here first!!!!!!!! GOOD LUCK AMERICA cause when we get our buts kicked in another fracas be it our fault or someone else's, LIKE IRAN!!!!! Know this his weakness will show then. I am a democrat and have always been a democrat, but this election I think I'll pass, and don,t worry I won't gripe, or complain cause I'm just not going to be a part of it. I'll just try and cover my own but.

Posted by: Earl J | Oct 7, 2008 7:37:44 PM

With a mess that George Bush is leaving for his successor, it would take divine intervention to get out of this mess regardless of who will become the next president. There are two major(fatal) mistakes that McCain has made-turning negative with lies about Obama and picking Palin. Heaven forbid if anything happens to McCain during his presidency, our enemies will eat and spit out Palin and our great nation. Come on America, wake up! Get realistic.

Posted by: Kamala | Oct 7, 2008 7:43:18 PM

Sallie - McCain returned the $100,000 Keating donated to his campaign and cooperated with investigators. He was cleared of wrong-doing in 1991. The four democrats (the other members of the Keating 5) were not convicted, which is why democrats rarely bring the issue up. Bush attempted to use this against McCain 8 years ago and got no where with it. Obama is just following in Bush's footsteps on this one, and hurting his own party in the process.

Posted by: Me Again | Oct 7, 2008 7:44:45 PM

Sorry, that was a typo - my post should have read: the other 4 members of the Keating5, 4 democrats, were convicted.

Posted by: Me Again | Oct 7, 2008 7:47:13 PM

Kamala,

Palin as president - our enemies might try to eat and spit her out

Obama as president - our enemies will hug him and he'll hug them back

I'd much rather take my chances with the former

Posted by: fob | Oct 7, 2008 8:36:59 PM

Earl J,

Great point about us paying for The Great One's programs.

Notice, how all interviewers ask the candidates "How will you pay for xx", conveniently forgetting that the candidate doesn't pay but the people pay.

They should repharse the question "How will you get the american people to pay for your xx program". Then maybe people will be more sensitized to their reckless spending.

Posted by: fob | Oct 7, 2008 8:40:23 PM

Still a good Idea to put Social Security dollars into the stock market?

Posted by: Alex | Oct 7, 2008 8:57:52 PM

Alex,

Yes, it is still a good idea to put SS dollars into the stock market because even with the current meltdown my investment would have made more than 50%, whereas the current SS scheme would pay be zero by the time we retire..

For those like Alex who are mathematically challenged - 50>0

Posted by: fob | Oct 7, 2008 9:20:48 PM

I am so SICK of both candidates pointing the finger and slinging mud. I am tired of both of them side stepping the question.

Both state the obvious but don't address HOW. FIX THE STINKING PROBLEM. Noone bales out middle american if we can't pay our house payment. Who is there for us

Again, they both state the obvious, but neither one states HOW. It's unfortunate that I have to vote for the lesser of two evils.

Posted by: Shelley-Louisville, KY | Oct 7, 2008 9:30:54 PM

Well you know if Obama and McCain ends in a tie Obama does get the president but Governor palin is your vp due to VP Cheney gets the deciding vote. I am democrate and I won't be part of Obama and his corruption friends either.

Posted by: Chris | Oct 7, 2008 11:45:50 PM


A substantial number of Americans will vote against Sarah Palin...about 55%...dooming McCain by a landslide.

Posted by: Tangito | Oct 8, 2008 12:09:48 AM

Doesn't McCain know that 5,000 dollar tax credit for insurance won't pay medical bills if you have cancer, I should know this is my 3rd time around in 3 years, and still paying bills from two years around. We know health insurance that will help the working class. And insurance that will cover you if you have a pre-existing condition. We need better health plans not a health cut.
McCain need to rethink, revisit, and redesign, because he doesn't what we as Americans really need.

Posted by: Marie | Oct 8, 2008 12:31:46 AM

Hey, NatFrankie, dig this:

"... the AIP's founder, Joe Vogler, told an interviewer in 1991: "The fires of hell are frozen glaciers compared to my hatred for the American government. ... And I won't be buried under their damn flag."

"Video footage shows AIP Vice Chairman Dexter Clark describing Palin at the 2007 North American Secessionist Convention as an "AIP member before she got the job as a mayor of a small town -- that was a nonpartisan job. But you get along to go along. She eventually joined the Republican Party, where she had all kinds of problems with their ethics, and well, I won't go into that." (No need to. The Alaska Legislature's ethics investigators are on the case.) Apparently with Palin in mind, Clark then went on to urge AIP members to "infiltrate" the major parties."
(Los Angeles Times | September 4, 2008).


"Now a conservative radio talk-show host, Liddy [G. Gordon Liddy. ] spent more than 4 years in prison for his role in the 1972 Watergate burglary. That was just one element of what Liddy did, and proposed to do, in a secret White House effort to subvert the Constitution. Far from repudiating him, McCain has embraced him.

"Last November, McCain went on his radio show. Liddy greeted him as "an old friend," and McCain sounded like one. "I'm proud of you, I'm proud of your family," he gushed. "It's always a pleasure for me to come on your program, Gordon, and congratulations on your continued success and adherence to the principles and philosophies that keep our nation great." Which principles would those be? The ones that told Liddy it was fine to break into the office of the Democratic National Committee to plant bugs and photograph documents? The ones that made him propose to kidnap anti-war activists so they couldn't disrupt the 1972 Republican National Convention? The ones that inspired him to plan the murder (never carried out) of an unfriendly newspaper columnist?

"Liddy was in the thick of the biggest political scandal in American history -- and one of the greatest threats to the rule of law. He has said he has no regrets about what he did, insisting that he went to jail as "a prisoner of war. [...] How does McCain explain his howling hypocrisy on the subject? He doesn't." (Chicago Tribune)

Posted by: ludmila | Oct 8, 2008 2:23:57 AM

For anyone out there that seems to be lost let me explain something, the surge was simply sending more troops, and also fighting the war the way the Democrats have been saying all along. Here we are this many years later and the Republicans think they can sit there and say their "backup" plan was a success and people wont admit it...wth are they talking about?!?! Simple Simon at work again, fact is, Obama won the debate plain and simple, he wasnt wrong about the surge, its just who wants to send more troops when the leadership has failed?? it only makes sense. It wasnt that we need more so much as it was they failed at a concrete plan that would benefit not only us but the Iraqis, its insane to say Obama wants to leave in defeat, to anyone with military experience, this shows McCain doesnt understand. And you cant sit here and deny that McCain seems hellbent on "winning" whatever that means....in Iraq, meanwhile WHAT ABOUT AFGHANISTAN!!!!! jesus show some respect, it was the Taliban thats the prize here, lets not take our eyes off the ball, hmm i wonder why they are so worried about Iraq....derrrr....couldnt be oil or anything, or the fact that it was a backdoor way into the mid east. Real cute. Either way these middle eastern countries take what we give and turn away just like the Saudis, so lets just keep up this failed attempt at making friends with enemies, and they still say Obama doesnt get it, i love it. Bye bye Simple Simon Republicans, Parties over, enough with the first grade mentallity.

Posted by: James | Oct 8, 2008 3:52:28 AM

America is set for doom mark my words . if OBama should get this thing, Osama will attack America once again but this time it will be totally deadly and it might either be a nuclear or chemical attack. MSM has already finished America and MSM is already surrendering up this country to terrorist.Once again I say America is doomed.

Posted by: msm is too bias!!!!!!!! Palin is the answer | Oct 8, 2008 4:38:43 AM

Ayers was a terrorist. Obama worked with Ayers while at the Annenberg Challenge. Walter Annenberg created TV Guide, Seventeen Magazine and worked for Nixon. Thus Nixon and readers of TV Guide are terrorist.

Posted by: Josh | Oct 8, 2008 3:40:53 PM

Josh - thanks for the laugh, it's too bad the foil hat brigade fearful of Obama won't read it.

Posted by: citizen voter | Oct 8, 2008 8:06:56 PM

As reported by WNBC News:

On October 8, 2008, the McCain campaign issued a press release announcing the formation of a group dubbed Former U.S. Ambassadors For McCain-Palin. Lenore Annenberg is listed as "chief of protocol" for a group.

Lenore Annenberg is the president of the Annenberg Foundation.

Posted by: Tracy | Oct 15, 2008 4:48:20 PM

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