The Numbers

A Run at the Latest Data from ABC's Poobah of Polling, Gary Langer

Gary Langer is director of polling at ABC News, where he's covered the beat of public opinion for nearly 20 years - conducting and analyzing ABC News polls, evaluating data from other sources and setting the news division's standards for poll reporting. Langer is a two-time Emmy award winner, both for ABC's reporting of public opinion polls in Iraq.

ARCHIVES

FAVORITES

July 2009
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
      1 2 3 4
5 6 7 8 9 10 11
12 13 14 15 16 17 18
19 20 21 22 23 24 25
26 27 28 29 30 31  

« Previous | Main | Next »

Ready for 2012

October 28, 2008 7:30 AM

For nearly one in 10 likely voters, it’s not a week from Election Day, it’s four years and a week. Their work in 2008 is done.

Those are the 9 percent in the latest ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll who say they’ve already voted, either by early in-person voting or absentee ballot. Their preference: Barack Obama over John McCain, by 60-39 percent.

That leaves 91 percent yet to vote, but more are coming. A total of 34 percent of likely voters intend to vote early, including those who’ve already done so and those who say they will in the next week. This overall early voting group favors Obama over McCain by 59-39 percent, essentially the same as it is among those who’ve gotten it done already.

It’s even more lopsided in the 16 battleground and eight toss-up states, as identified by our Political Unit. In the battlegrounds, those who say they’ve already voted report a 69-30 percent preference for Obama over McCain; it’s about the same, 66-32 percent, when we add in those who intend to vote in the next week.

In the eight toss-ups (Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia) these preferences are 74-25 percent (already voted) and 69-29 percent (including those who plan to do so). (Note, given our sample size there’s a 10-point error margin on this estimate.)

Preferences are far more lopsided than in the 2004 ABC/Post tracking poll: Fifteen percent reported voting early, splitting 52-46 percent in favor of George W. Bush over John Kerry (and at this stage, a week out, 4 percent said they’d already done so). Obama’s mounted a major early-voting effort this year, and it looks to be bearing fruit. (Actual early voting in 2004 was 22 percent, higher than the poll estimate.)

Early voting to date this year peaks among senior citizens – 17 percent say they’ve voted – and Westerners, 14 percent. These also are prominent when we include those who intend to vote early or absentee in the next week: Fifty-seven percent of Westerners, 47 percent of seniors, 41 percent of blacks, 41 percent of urbanites and 39 percent of single women. Apart from seniors, those are particularly strong groups for Obama.

The sharpest differences are regional. Just 8 percent in the Northeast say they either have voted early or plan to do so, jumping to 25 percent in the Midwest, 40 percent in the South and, as noted, 57 percent in the West, where voting rules in many states encourage early participation.

October 28, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (22)

User Comments

Feed You can follow this conversation by subscribing to the comment feed for this post.

The problem with John McCain is that he is trying to use the old Lee Atwater, Karl Rove playbook when the country has moved on from that after eight years of Bush incompetence, intransigence and malfeasance. Senator McCain, demonstrates his Bush-like tone-deafness to this new reality, and he shows it by still trying to capitalize on a grotesque caricature of reformism, without its substance, symbolized cynically by his selecting of Sarah Palin to be the anti-Hillary for his running mate.____Mr. McCain must never have noticed that the public has, since 2004, turned overwhelmingly against the Bush administration because of its repeatedly demonstrated incompetence and out-of-touch, stubborn intransigence._____Now, here is Senator McCain, in the midst of a national crisis, doing the same kind of things as Bush, using right wing mantras and litmus tests to deal with crises instead of understanding or caring what the American public needs. Instead, McCain continues Bush's demonstrable incompetence in his use of the old Rovian playbook instead of showing that he gets it, and facing the new, urgent issues. ____McCain and Palin are walking affronts to even the many Republicans who have abandoned the Republican party of late, turned off by disgust over a lying, dishonest attack campaign run by Bush operatives working for John McCain and Sarah Palin._____ All but the extreme right wing base of the Repubican party are sick of the McCain ticket not facing our country’s dire needs and playing political 'gotcha' instead of dealing coherently with a new, dangerous reality that we have all entered into__a reality of of long term bankruptcy, joblessness, and need for finding new energy sources and dealing with global warming, among other things. ____We are in a world full of dangers that are not being faced at all under Republican leadership.__John McCain could have departed from the Bush model and traveled a higher road. He chose not to__He bet instead on one last gasping triumph of the politics of the past. And if he doesn't lose, it will be because of vote fraud and a rigged election.

Posted by: wurzelbacher_ | Oct 28, 2008 9:28:05 AM

Well I'm 65 and for the first time voted across party lines. I cast my early vote for Obama as did my granddaughter and many of her friends. Arizona is not solid red anymore.

Posted by: judi book | Oct 28, 2008 11:01:07 AM

Could you explain how you determined your 100% of voters in this election? Are these 'likely voters' -- meaning voters who have a history of voting in presidential elections?

What I'm getting at is this: how do you know that 9% have voted, when you can only know that 100% have voted AFTER the election? You've clearly made an assumption; I'd like to know what it is.

Posted by: America | Oct 28, 2008 12:05:24 PM

I wish my state had early voting - I would have already cast my Obama-Biden vote. Early or not, Obama-Biden gets my vote on Election Day.

Posted by: jmb | Oct 28, 2008 2:22:29 PM

America- He's probably referring to already registered voters. So, it's still flawed in the sense there are many that can register on election day depending on the state, but at least this idea of mine has a basis of logic. I doubt he just made a number up. That would be...to maverick like. :)

Could you explain how you determined your 100% of voters in this election? Are these 'likely voters' -- meaning voters who have a history of voting in presidential elections?

What I'm getting at is this: how do you know that 9% have voted, when you can only know that 100% have voted AFTER the election? You've clearly made an assumption; I'd like to know what it is.

Posted by: Kyle | Oct 28, 2008 2:59:24 PM

Good for you Judibook, obviously you have paid attention to the debates, proposals, VP choices, etc...

I am 27 and have talked my 90 year old Republican grandfather into voting Obama. The choice is so obvious to anyone who has tuned in and listened to the canidates plan for the future. Obamas plan is to invest in energy independence, health care, education and infastructure. McCain plan is to freeze spending while investing in only the military. DId Palin come up with this plan?

Posted by: DSchles | Oct 28, 2008 5:16:06 PM

Gary: What's the partisan braekdown of the early voters, both those who have and who will?

Posted by: John Nienstedt | Oct 28, 2008 5:32:23 PM

I've known Barack Obama for 15 years; he was my neighbor and State Senator. Our kids were babies together. He's the same man he was then.

Can anyone say the same about John McCain?

Posted by: Local Girl | Oct 28, 2008 8:23:41 PM

Despite the stupid old century prejudice and racism still found in many places in America this election was over many months ago. McCain sealed the deal when he chose a "cheerleader" as a VP running mate.

Posted by: Die Hard American | Oct 28, 2008 10:00:13 PM

Mr. Rick Casey of the Houston Chronicle wrote similar analysis using early voting during the Texas Primary as per his article: "Election call: It is Obama",

Mr. Casey wrote: "Call me a fool, but I'm not waiting until a week from Tuesday.I'm calling the Texas Democratic primary today.

It's Barack Obama."

Mr. Rick Casey added "My projection is based on the numbers", "I'm basing my prediction on early voting patterns."

Mr. Casey numbers: "So in Clinton country turnout is up 50 percent to 200 percent. Not bad.", "But in the counties that are seen as Obama country the increases ranged from 400 percent all the way up to 870 percent"

Barack Obama losing the Texas primary as predicted by the polls showed that the increases in early voting turn out from 400 to 870% did not help Obama.

My opinion is that the enthusiasm among Democrats in this election specially among African Americans is responsible for changing the previous early voting patterns when Republicans decided early for their candidate as per the exit polls of the 2000 and 2004 elections.

Posted by: Angel | Oct 28, 2008 10:11:54 PM

I can't figure out why the people in this country take Barack Obama seriously. He has backed tracked, flip flopped, and done 180's. No clear record of positive political change in his past. What am I missing?

Posted by: Georgie | Oct 29, 2008 12:07:42 AM

I can't understand why anyone would want 4 more years of the same old policies. McCain believes that he is owed the presidency. I'd rather have a sorry Obama presidency than another 4 years of GOP rule. Give me a break with the phony fear of Obama.

Posted by: Dee Turner | Oct 29, 2008 1:57:42 AM

No one had flip flopped more than John McCain. He was against the Bush tax cuts before he was for them. He was against offshore drilling before he was for it. He rails against earmarks but has voted for bills with billions in earmarks in them. His own running mate secured 260 million dollars in earmarks in just 18 months as governor of her state.

Posted by: Dan T. | Oct 29, 2008 3:54:55 AM

Correcting your statement. Barack Obama is not sorry! Never judge a book by its cover! He is a caring person and have the people and our country in his best interest.

Posted by: Lizbet | Oct 29, 2008 5:05:00 AM

The bush/gop/loony right era of the "With us or against us" Inquisition is OVER!

We, the People of The United States of America will vote for ADULT supervision on 4 November.

Posted by: mikey | Oct 29, 2008 7:05:21 AM

No drama Obama!

Can anyone say something remotely similar to McCain?

Barack Obama is so clean that his political enemies have to find him guilty by his association with people that have either said something objectionable or has perform criminal acts decades ago.

Can anyone say something remotely similar to McCain?

Posted by: Emilio | Oct 29, 2008 7:28:51 AM

Oh, please. Read this:

In regards to Khalidi, however, the guilt-by-association game burns John McCain as well.

During the 1990s, while he served as chairman of the International Republican Institute (IRI), McCain distributed several grants to the Palestinian research center co-founded by Khalidi, including one worth half a million dollars.

A 1998 tax filing for the McCain-led group shows a $448,873 grant to Khalidi's Center for Palestine Research and Studies for work in the West Bank. (See grant number 5180, "West Bank: CPRS" on page 14 of this PDF.)

The relationship extends back as far as 1993, when John McCain joined IRI as chairman in January. Foreign Affairs noted in September of that year that IRI had helped fund several extensive studies in Palestine run by Khalidi's group, including over 30 public opinion polls and a study of "sociopolitical attitudes."

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/28/mccain-funded-work-of-pal_n_138606.html

Posted by: rgb | Oct 29, 2008 10:39:20 PM

The rest of the Country should adopt the vote-by mail system that we have in Oregon. There's no voting on machines or waiting in long lines. I sit at my kitchen table, and mark the ballot, and then mail it or drop it off. Signature verification of every voter prevents fraud.

Posted by: NO2WAR | Oct 30, 2008 5:48:56 AM

The only way Obama can lose against the inept and negative flailing of McCain is by voter suppression and vote tampering. If Obama loses, this country will see an uprising (non-violent) that has never been dreamed of. A winning McCain would be austresized by the Congress and the American people to the point he would be unable to accomplish anything.

The country is well aware of the voter fraud the Republicans have perpetuated over the last decade, and I seriously doubt they will be allowed to get away with it this time around.

Posted by: Rob | Nov 1, 2008 3:09:17 PM

I dont care if Obama was your neighbor and he was the same then as he is now thats the point Bad then even worse now.

Posted by: Ron | Nov 2, 2008 7:47:10 AM

Post a comment