The Numbers
A Run at the Latest Data from ABC's Poobah of Polling, Gary Langer
Gary Langer is director of polling at ABC News, where he's covered the beat of public opinion for nearly 20 years - conducting and analyzing ABC News polls, evaluating data from other sources and setting the news division's standards for poll reporting. Langer is a two-time Emmy award winner, both for ABC's reporting of public opinion polls in Iraq.
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The Economy... and those Clinton Democrats
October 21, 2008 8:16 AM
Two factors that weren’t fully anticipated early this summer are boosting Barack Obama in the presidential race. One, most powerfully, is the economy; another – surprise – are Clinton Democrats.
Just in time for Hillary Clinton’s appearance with Obama in Orlando last night – the first time they’ve shared a stage since their show of unity in Unity, N.H. back on June 27 - our tracking poll shows Obama with his best support to date among Clinton Democrats, 84 percent.
That’s Obama’s best yet in this group, up from 72 percent in mid-June. At that time one in four Clinton supporters either was going to McCain or undecided; now it’s down to one in 6. That may be as good as it gets for Obama; after all, these are people whose preferred candidate he defeated in a long and hard-fought primary campaign.
We define Clinton Democrats as Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents who wanted her, not Obama, to win the nomination. It’s a substantial group, 20 percent of all likely voters. Some of the most heated debate heading into the Democratic National Convention focused on whether or not they’d come around. Looks like.
On the economy, meanwhile, our latest results show continued high levels of economic unease – with a dramatic effect on vote preferences. Eighty-five percent of likely voters are worried about the economy’s direction the next few years, 44 percent “very” worried; two-thirds are worried about their own family’s finances, one in four very much so.
And boy does it matter. Among people who are “very” worried about the economy, Obama leads McCain by a huge 65-29 percent. Among everyone else, though – be they somewhat worried, or not too worried or not worried at all – McCain leads, 54-43 percent. With no economic worry, in theory at least, there’d be no Obama lead.
The differences aren’t quite so stark on personal finances; here Obama leads big among the very worrieds (by 66 to 27 percent) and less big among somewhat worrieds (by 10 points). Those who aren’t too worried split evenly; McCain leads only among those who aren’t worried about their family finances at all. His problem: They account for just 12 percent of likely voters.
Obama McCain
Clinton Democrats 84% 15Economy:
Very worried 65 29
Not “very” worried 43 54Family finances:
Very worried 66 27
Somewhat worried 54 44
No too worried 48 48
Not at all worried 34 63
Check here for more on our latest ABC/Post tracking poll.
October 21, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (59)
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Oh, where's HP and the PUMA folks for this one?
Great news!
Posted by: Truth Hurts the GOP | Oct 21, 2008 8:29:40 AM
Poll kind of sums it up doesn't it?
Rich folks who don't need to worry about the economy, support tax cuts for the rich.
Middle class folks who are concerned about being able to pay their heating bill this winter overwhelmingly support Obama.
Not hard to see which candidate is looking out for middle class Americans.
Posted by: From the Polls | Oct 21, 2008 8:32:21 AM
While McSame has 8 homes, 13 vehicles, and a millionairess wife, of course you do not need to worry. This is why those who are not worried about the economy, worry about whether they would still have a job, or put food on the table tomorrow, are supporting Obama because he is the better person to help all of us. McSame has no idea of the economy and how the "everyday" people live from day to day. We cannot afford the McSame to help us because he is unable to relate to our kind of life, and will only help the banks and CEO's, and those who have money. He has done this over the last 8 years, supporting Bush in ruining our economy. We badly need the change which Obama will help bring about. No more to McCain, McSame!
Posted by: Karen | Oct 21, 2008 8:39:53 AM
One reason some Hillary supporters can never support Obama is that Obama's team bullied Clinton supporters at state caucuses (based on eye-witness reports starting in Iowa and continuing throughout the primary season). Another reason is Obama voted against giving Michigan and Florida voters recognition at the convention until it was certain that the superdelegates would vote for him, at which point he changed his mind. He prevented a re-vote. This again demonstrated his "do anything to win" strategy. Many people believe the superdelegates were threatened with being called racists, so they went with Obama out of fear. So repeatedly playing the "race card" is another reason we can't support him. A major reason Obama is disliked by Hillary supporters is he co-opted Hillary's positions to diffuse issues, and since then, he's changed his stances again, whenever it is necessary to gain political points. Another reason is his lack of experience on governing issues, and absence of any record, except for his work to sign up people to vote for him (ACORN) and his own report (in his autobiographies, probably written by Ayers!). Hillary's record was long and substantial, and Obama worked to trivialize it.
Obama: You can't fool all of the people all of the time. We won't forget.
Posted by: tina | Oct 21, 2008 8:42:02 AM
FYI, Obama tax returns last year - they earned 12 million, so they are rich too. Anyone that rich who would let his half brother starve in Africa earning just one dollar a month, isn't anyone I would vote for. He talks compassion but doesn't even have any for his own flesh and blood! He's not an honest or caring person, otherwise he would put family first.
Funny how ABC/Wash post poles don't show their breakdown of sampling figures anymore? After the fiasco few weeks ago the ABC/Wash pole showed the Obamasiah 9 points ahead, but they accidentally showed the breakdown between the number of Conservatives and Liberals that were polled. There was a full 13 percent more liberals polled than conservatives and it included an over sampling of African Americans to boot! That's why they had false results on the polls point spread. They are still doing their samples the same misleading way, by polling more African Americans and Liberals to get the results they want. Those are the irrefutable facts. However you will be hard pressed to find the breakdown in ideologies printed in any future polling statements from ABC/Wash post poles.
Posted by: MrPriest | Oct 21, 2008 9:36:50 AM
Wishful Thinking... we will see who wins in Nov.. polls don't mean anything.. right now the race is tightening... and it looks like all the dems are already celebrating... reminds me of an ole saying "pride goes before destruction, and a haughty spirit before a fall" don't drink too much of that kool-aid... Remember the "Bradley Affect" may happen once again...
Posted by: David | Oct 21, 2008 11:56:37 AM
I for one don't believe everything that comes out of Mr. Obamas mouth. As an ex Maytag employee I can tell you he came to us and told us he would do everything to keep our jobs from moving to Mexico. Did that happen. No. So please don't believe everything you hear from him, after all look at the condition of the state he comes from. It's one of the poorest in the country. I know because I live here.
Posted by: Greg | Oct 21, 2008 12:06:14 PM
As a stanch Hillary supporter from the great state of Florida - I will never support a guy like Barack Obama. He is a liability to the party and I am ticked off on how he treated her and didn't pay off her debt. I worked for the party of a lot of years and I and others I know cannot support this guy for president... we are voting for John this election and hoping Hillary will run in 2012.
Posted by: James | Oct 21, 2008 12:08:21 PM
I was a Clinton supporter (both Bill and Hillary) but people fail to remember that Bill was a conservative Democrat for the most part. Liberal on social issues but on the economy he came into the White House a pro-big business Arkansas Governor. He implemented the most sweeping welfare reform, was pro-NAFTA and supported, signed off on and still defends the most sweeping regulation of the banking industry in American history - a decision some point to as being the root of the economic crisis we are in today. So economically Clinton did not govern as a liberal which is one of the reasons the far left didn't rally behind
Hillary in the primaries and were all over her case about issues like NAFTA.
In comparison we have a soon to be departed Republican President George W.
who engaged in excessive spending, increased an entitlement program (Medicare) dramatically and we had the Bush tax cuts. You would have thought he was the Democrat. So when people look fondly back at the economy under the Clinton years you may want to remember this was not a far left liberal President we are talking about.
Posted by: alpaig52 | Oct 21, 2008 12:12:38 PM
Here we are, with a mortgage we're worrying about and utility bills rising. My husband, with a chronic illness, just lost his job and health insurance. Several of his employer's major clients 'outsourced' to India. That's where my job went too.
The commute from here to the city costs so much, our neighbors are abandoning their lovely homes and renting dinky apartments to keep the jobs paying the mortgages, so they don't lose them.
Here we are, living on a high mesa, with wind so constant, we think of 10mph as calm, but even the tribes on reservations around us can't get help to harness it for power.
Think about this. "Government regulation is bad for business," is why taxpayers like you and me have to 'bail out' those businesses that pay their execs millions a year.
Think about this. My 13-year-old grandson spent 5 hours, Saturday, holding an Obama campaign sign beside our busiest street, with his personal message, "I want to go to college," under it. When children have to worry, not just dream, about their future, it's time for change.
Posted by: Sharon | Oct 21, 2008 12:19:27 PM
It's amazing how these liberal news rag sites like to continue to show that America is in dire straits (doom and gloom) just before the election and if their elected, will change their tune to how good and strong America is.... under their leadership of course...
They want it to stay ugly in America until their elected to office just like Obama wanted the President of Iraq to not deal with the Bush Administration on the pull out until he got into office to show that he is a good and impacting leader.
This is the type of leader the dems want in office... God help us!
They have no vision for our country unlike McCain who puts country first... it's funny how you don't see these types of Shenanigans coming from Republicans..
Posted by: Steve | Oct 21, 2008 12:24:13 PM
Look at Hilary's face very carefull, it's obvious that she's not happy at all. I can understand how hard it must be for her to be up there with Obama. She fought so hard (harder than other candidates) and received 18 million votes. Do you think it's easy for her to give up all the hardwork that she had earned and threw herself to support Obama? I'm her supporter and I'm not going to vote for Obama. If I want to vote for him, I would have voted in the fist place during primaries. No matter how much Hilary ask her supporters to vote for Obama, there are many who won't vote for him. If we have to choose between McCain and Obama, many will choose McCain because to many of us, Obamam is a man without a True Identy. We really don't know who and what he is.
Posted by: zoe | Oct 21, 2008 12:51:53 PM
Taxing the rich would be your employer. Do you still need a job?
Posted by: bpercival | Oct 21, 2008 12:57:28 PM
"Oh, where's HP and the PUMA folks for this one?" Keep pushing that button, Mr/Ms. Truth Hurts. VOTE NO TO BIGOTED OBAMA SUPPORTERS!!!!
Posted by: Jeff | Oct 21, 2008 1:37:37 PM
I am an Independant, and I see Obama as a real liability just like Carter, the Iranians tested him and held US citizens hostage for 400+ days. When Regan was elected those Hostages were released pretty quick. The other thing is that his tax program is not taking into consideration before or after deductions and that is some areas of the US that is lower class income.
Posted by: Gene | Oct 21, 2008 1:57:07 PM
Obama is an extreme liberal socialist who will lead America down a path of no return. we will become a Venezuela or Cuba for certain under Obama and our nation will totally collapse!
Posted by: rockychance | Oct 21, 2008 2:26:33 PM
Hillary and Biden both said clearly that Obama was not ready to lead our country and now they say he is, why? Only sellouts of the US would now say he is just to gain their pathetic power.
Posted by: rockeychance | Oct 21, 2008 2:29:24 PM
Sharon Here I am working for a small business and the boss already said ehe would be laying 3 of us off if Obama is elected because he would not be able to afford the tax increase. I guess I will be taking the handout Obama is going to give. I will not have to give to society since the government is going to take care of me. I will be able to sit at home and do nothing under Obama except drink beer and see if my check is in the mail.
Posted by: BLAHisBHO | Oct 21, 2008 2:58:19 PM
"For God sake leave Obama alone &
stop the slander of a (GOOD MAN)!!!!!
CB
Posted by: CB | Oct 21, 2008 3:00:24 PM
I told my 10 year old daughter that she wouldn't have to worry about becoming a teacher if Obama won because she could sit at home and wait for her check in the mail also. Maybe she can get the house next mine.
Posted by: BLAHisBHO | Oct 21, 2008 3:09:15 PM
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