The Numbers
A Run at the Latest Data from ABC's Poobah of Polling, Gary Langer
Gary Langer is director of polling at ABC News, where he's covered the beat of public opinion for nearly 20 years - conducting and analyzing ABC News polls, evaluating data from other sources and setting the news division's standards for poll reporting. Langer has won two Emmy awards for ABC's reporting of public opinion polls in Iraq, and The Numbers blog was honored this year as winner of the 2008 Iowa Gallup Award for Excellent Journalism Using Polls.
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The Economy... and those Clinton Democrats
October 21, 2008 8:16 AM
Two factors that weren’t fully anticipated early this summer are boosting Barack Obama in the presidential race. One, most powerfully, is the economy; another – surprise – are Clinton Democrats.
Just in time for Hillary Clinton’s appearance with Obama in Orlando last night – the first time they’ve shared a stage since their show of unity in Unity, N.H. back on June 27 - our tracking poll shows Obama with his best support to date among Clinton Democrats, 84 percent.
That’s Obama’s best yet in this group, up from 72 percent in mid-June. At that time one in four Clinton supporters either was going to McCain or undecided; now it’s down to one in 6. That may be as good as it gets for Obama; after all, these are people whose preferred candidate he defeated in a long and hard-fought primary campaign.
We define Clinton Democrats as Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents who wanted her, not Obama, to win the nomination. It’s a substantial group, 20 percent of all likely voters. Some of the most heated debate heading into the Democratic National Convention focused on whether or not they’d come around. Looks like.
On the economy, meanwhile, our latest results show continued high levels of economic unease – with a dramatic effect on vote preferences. Eighty-five percent of likely voters are worried about the economy’s direction the next few years, 44 percent “very” worried; two-thirds are worried about their own family’s finances, one in four very much so.
And boy does it matter. Among people who are “very” worried about the economy, Obama leads McCain by a huge 65-29 percent. Among everyone else, though – be they somewhat worried, or not too worried or not worried at all – McCain leads, 54-43 percent. With no economic worry, in theory at least, there’d be no Obama lead.
The differences aren’t quite so stark on personal finances; here Obama leads big among the very worrieds (by 66 to 27 percent) and less big among somewhat worrieds (by 10 points). Those who aren’t too worried split evenly; McCain leads only among those who aren’t worried about their family finances at all. His problem: They account for just 12 percent of likely voters.
Obama McCain
Clinton Democrats 84% 15Economy:
Very worried 65 29
Not “very” worried 43 54Family finances:
Very worried 66 27
Somewhat worried 54 44
No too worried 48 48
Not at all worried 34 63
Check here for more on our latest ABC/Post tracking poll.
October 21, 2008 in 2008 General Election | Permalink | User Comments (59)
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I just met a man at Obama HQ office in a small town in NC. He said that he was undecided and wanted information to help him make up his mind. I was making a donation and filling out the paper work and overheard a campaign worker telling the man why he should vote for Mr. Obama. She gave him a compelling reason. As a working person making less than $250,000 per year, he or she will get a substantial tax break. The information was taken from a tax expert not connected to the Democratic or Republican campaign. The man thanked the campaign worker, asked for campaign signs and headed out the door. Once people understand how issues will directly affect them, they can make an intelligent decision.
Roy
Posted by: Roy | Oct 21, 2008 3:23:41 PM
In a recent speech McCain gave this week in PA, he stated " that government is going to be on a budget just like he is and just like we are". Hold on a minute, Mccains wife spends 500,000 a month on her American Express credit card. The shoes and outfits the McCains wear cost thousands of dollars. What fu---- world is this man in. I have been so disgusted and disappointed by his conduct, I was a registered Republican for 20 years, but thanks to his lack of putting country first and picking Palin, I am voting for Obama. I cannot believe he would jeopradize this country and it's safety for his own personal ambition. I try so hard to make any sense of what Palin say's, she just goes round and round in a circle. There should be some sort of requirement for running for office. The McCain/Palin ticket has become a joke.
Posted by: tammy Sholedice | Oct 21, 2008 5:07:10 PM
There should be some sort of requirement for running for office. The McCain/Palin ticket has become a joke.
Mcain was a Maverick and straight talk express until his choice of Sarah Palin.After his choice of Palin, you know what Humour wins.Maverick and Straight talk express became comedian alright.So you are right.GOP ticket is the ticket of coemdians and dont forget comedians put country first too just like any citizens do.
Posted by: moderaterepublican | Oct 21, 2008 5:34:14 PM
McPain and Palin claim they are Mavericks.
Definition..of Maverick...in the early 1900's, there was a cattle rancher in Texas, who claimed he would never "BRAND" his cattle..he said it was inhumane. What he did, however, was drive around the outskirts of large ranches, looking for lost cattle, and when he found them, he STOLE THEM and brought them back to HIS RANCH.
YEAH, that is the GOP ticket, for sure, take away the middle class, so the rich get richer.
We've BEEN THERE AND DOWN THAT, these last years, and the story of trickle down...well, its just that, A STORY.
Lets try a new approach.
VOTE OBAMA/ BIDEN FOR REAL CHANGE WE CAN BELIEVE IN.
Posted by: LYNDA in CT | Oct 21, 2008 5:47:56 PM
The Clinton's Legacy with the economy was just a carry over from Regan. Anybody that thinks Obama is the savior for our economy needs to get a life and brain. The current situation gives the Dems all the ammo they need! to raise taxes on anyone they seem fit.
Posted by: azson | Oct 21, 2008 6:17:23 PM
HILLARY HAD 18 MILLION VOTERS....THEN THE 15% WHO VOTE FOR MCCAIN WILL BE A HUGE 3 MILLION VOTERS....THAT'S 3 MILLION DEMOCRATS WHO WILL NOW VOTE FOR MCCAIN...
THAT WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH FOR A MCCAIN VICTORY!
Posted by: John Pen | Oct 21, 2008 7:16:54 PM
I'd like to know who you polled because I know hundreds and hundreds of Hillary supporters who WILL NOT VOTE FOR OBAMA come this November 4th.. Puma's are alive and well by the way Truth Hurts the GOP thanks for asking and we will remember come this November!!!!
Posted by: Tracy | Oct 21, 2008 9:02:22 PM
This Dem will not be voting for Obama. I demand transparency in his records. After 8 years if Bush, I want to know whi will entering into the White House. I am not will for another term with a candidate that has a thin record and information about him hidden.
Posted by: Bridgeport | Oct 21, 2008 9:10:36 PM
Still not voting for the one I am voting McCain this guy is full of it
Posted by: Bishop | Oct 21, 2008 9:26:21 PM
Millions of Hillary's supporters remember when Obama said he wasn't worried about them, they'll come around. Only those who live under the rule of another arrogant SOB would fold and fall in line.
Posted by: RIChris | Oct 21, 2008 9:26:22 PM
P.S. I'm a proud PUMA, former Democrat for Hillary from WY/MT voting McCain-Palin!
Posted by: ck | Oct 21, 2008 9:27:29 PM
I was a so-called Clinton Democrat who will not be voting for Obama. He hasn't the experience for this most awesome job of President of the United States. He has no record of legislative achievement. He voted "present" an unprecidented number of times as a state senator - just couldn't or wouldn't make a hard decision or crucial issues. He has a disturbing pattern of affiliating himself with hate mongers, anti-Semites, convicted felons and former terrorists. He lies and flip flops so often it's impossible to keep track of where he stands. He talks the talk but doesnt' walk the walk, touting equal pay for equal work while he pays his female staffers 78 centers on the dollar as compared to his male staffers. He has nurtured a culture in his campaign of confrontation and aggression that has resulted in horrid acts toward others. His ties to ACORN (and their subsidiaries) would leave any thinking person wondering about the validity of some of the votes cast for him and for those interested, a thorough analysis has already been done regarding caucus fraud during the primaries and it appears quite likely he stole the nomination from Clinton (with a colluding Democratic Party power structure backing him all the way). He accuses those who don't support him or who question him as being racist. He embraced as a mentor and father figure a man who spewed hateful, anti-Semitic rants for 20 years, then claimed he never heard them, then claimed he heard them but didn't agree with them.
How any thinking person can support this candidate is beyond me.
There is no there, there. We've set the bar too low and the media can congratulate themselves for the horrendous job of highly biased reporting they have done all year.
Posted by: Anna | Oct 21, 2008 9:33:01 PM
If BO is going to be so much better for this country in terms of the economy, then why didn't he do something to help the awful slum in his district?
Isn't the best predictor of future success, past accomplishments?
Posted by: greenfun | Oct 21, 2008 9:39:04 PM
Hillary Supporter and Puma voting for McCain/Palin in CA
Another phony poll. No one in their right mind would believe that Obama is better for our economy or anything else. I come from a Democratic family and we are all voting for McCain. Why? Obama is not trustworthy and his economic plan doesn't add up.
Originally, Obama stated that only taxpayers earning over $250,000 would be paying higher incomes taxes. Then, Joe the Plumber, bless him, had BO state his true agenda "distributing the wealth" of other Americans.
What Obama doesn't say is anywhere between 30 to 40% of taxpayers do not pay income taxes. They might pay a SS Tax, state tax, or another type of tax. In effect, Obama's plan is a tax rebate or tax welfare plan for people that do not pay income taxes.
Now, Barney Frank states that if the Dem administration gets in, they will touch SS taxes and revenues to redistribute the pie. What utter nonsense.
Women's rights - If Obama is such a believer in women's rights, why does Obama pay his female staffers less than McCain does?
If Obama is such a believer in women's rights, why did he select Biden over the female candidate that earned 18 million votes?
If Obama is a believer in women's rights, why do BO, the MSM, the DP, and his supporters advocate misogyny?
Polls - BO and the MSM have one goal in mind to shut down any dissent against him. Anytime someone opposes him, they are declared a racist. When a candidate, the media, a party, and his supporters are playing the racism card 24/7, most people are going to remain silent about their choice or say they will vote for this fake candidate.
Go Team McCain/Palin
Posted by: yoga82 | Oct 21, 2008 9:46:29 PM
Obama-Biden have displayed contempt for women; contempt for people who work for a living; and contempt for the welfare and safety of US citizens. Biden's most recent remarks are entirely irresponsible, but clearly illustrate that electing Obama would be a threat to the country. What Biden tries to market as Obama's "steel spine" cannot conceal his crony's lack of knowledge, sophistication, and incompetence in diplomacy and world affairs.
Obama failed at building a consensus within the Democratic Party among PUMAs and others who were life-long democrats and now voting for McCain-Palin. As far as attempting diplomacy in an international arena - it's a joke, but the joke will be at the expense and suffering of US citizens.
Posted by: Monarch | Oct 21, 2008 9:47:38 PM
YEAH! Those Hillary supporters saw how damaging PALIN will be for the FEMALE HUMAN race and have bucked up to support Obama. If Hillary and Bill can support Obama so should HER supporters!OUR COUNTRY CAN NOT have more REPUB policy on the damaged economy.
Posted by: Darla | Oct 21, 2008 9:48:50 PM
I don't know who you are talking to, but this Puma is voting McCain/Palin.
Posted by: Christine | Oct 21, 2008 10:23:52 PM
HILLARY - THE FIRST WOMAN PRESIDENT
FOR ALL THOSE CLINTON SUPPORTERS WHO WANT TO VOTE FOR McCain -- THINK AGAIN, AND THINK TWICE!!
IF OBAMA LOSE THIS ELECTION, IT IS ALMOST CERTAIN THAT PALIN WILL BECOME THE FIRST WOMAN PRESIDENT.
I ALSO SUPPORTED HILLARY - BUT WITH THE ENTRY OF PALIN, IT IS IMPERATIVE THAT WE HAVE TO KEEP PALIN IN ALASKA.
IF McCain/Pain WIN THIS ELCTION, HILLARY HAS ABSOLUTELY NO CHANCE TO BECOME PRESIDENT.
IF OBAMA/BIDEN WIN, 8 YRS FROM NOW BIDEN WILL BE 72, AND MOST PROBABLY WILL NOT RUN FOR PRESIDENCY. HILLARY WILL BE ONLY 68, AND STILL YOUNG ENOUGH TO MAKE ONE MORE SUCCESSFUL RUN, AND HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL TO BE THE FIRST WOMAN PRESIDENT.
Posted by: Jim, TX | Oct 21, 2008 10:58:07 PM
I supported Hillary to become US President, not to win the Democratic nomination. I know for fact now that the only way Hillary can become President 8 yrs from now is ONLY IF WE KEEP PALIN IN ALASKA!!
So, all those unhappy Hillary democrats, please join us and let us keep Palin in Alaska.
Posted by: Jim, TX | Oct 21, 2008 11:04:56 PM
I do not believe that the numbers of Clinton democrats voting for Obama is as high as the media tries to suggest.
I voted for Hillary in the primary and I voted as a democrat all my life - until this year. I am a black woman and I am voting for McCain-Palin this year.
The democratic party is a disgrace. It has been taken over by socialists who do not care about all the loyal democrats who helped build this party over the years.
My vote for McCain-Palin is a vote AGAINST Obama, Reid, Dean, Pelosi & Brazile. They cheated, they bullied, they lied and they manipulated to get Obama the nomination. If that gang gets the power they will destroy this country and the democratic party.
Not only am I voting for a Republican president, but I am voting republican all the way down my ticket. The democrats are on a power trip as they imagine pushing liberal policies down the throats of americans and they need to be stopped before these socialists push policies on this country that will create chaos.
NO OBAMA!!
PUMA in Virginia
Posted by: NoDemsNoWay | Oct 21, 2008 11:30:33 PM
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