The Numbers
A Run at the Latest Data from ABC's Poobah of Polling, Gary Langer
Gary Langer is director of polling at ABC News, where he's covered the beat of public opinion for nearly 20 years - conducting and analyzing ABC News polls, evaluating data from other sources and setting the news division's standards for poll reporting. Langer is a two-time Emmy award winner, both for ABC's reporting of public opinion polls in Iraq.
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The Ground War Rages
October 24, 2008 7:06 AM
Three in 10 likely voters say they’ve been contacted by phone, e-mail or in person by Barack Obama’s campaign, rising to four in 10 in the battleground states – in both cases an advantage for Obama over John McCain in the ground game.
Nationally 29 percent report being contacted by phone, in person or via e-mail or text message on behalf of the Obama campaign, vs. 21 percent who report a contact from the McCain camp. In the 16 battleground states, 38 percent report an Obama contact vs. 27 percent from the McCain campaign. And in the 8 tossups states it’s 42 vs. 29 percent.
These are – for both campaigns – enormous numbers of direct contacts. With turnout of perhaps 130 million voters, the equivalent of 38 million report having been contacted to date by the Obama campaign, 27 million by McCain’s – with a week a half yet to go.
Traditionally, contacts closer to Election Day could matter more. But this does not look like a traditional election: As reported in the latest ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll last night, 31 percent of likely voters plan to vote early or by absentee ballot. That might lend more clout to early contacts.
Obama’s efforts seem either better targeted or more effective. He holds a wide 75-23 percent lead in vote choice among likely voters who’ve been contacted by his campaign; among those he’s not contacted, by contrast, it’s a 50-44 percent McCain-Obama race.
McCain’s efforts do not show this differentiation. He trails by 10 points, 52-42 percent, among people he’s contacted, and by about the same, 55-42 percent, among those he has not.
Vote preference
Obama McCain
Contacted by Obama
Yes 75% 23
No 44 50
Contacted by McCain
Yes 52% 42
No 55 42
In another indication of targeting, Obama has an especially sharp advantage among likely voters under age 40: in this group 30 percent report an Obama contact, while just 11 percent have heard from McCain. And 44 percent of Democrats report an Obama contact, vs. 25 percent of Republicans who’ve been contacted by McCain. It’s closer among independents; 26 percent have heard from Obama, 20 percent from McCain.
Nationally, 21 percent say they’ve heard from the Obama campaign by phone or in person, 16 percent by e-mail or text message (mailings weren’t measured in this poll). Combining those who reported both kinds of contacts produces the net of 29 percent.
For McCain, 14 percent have heard by phone or in person and 10 percent report receiving campaign e-mails or text messages, 7 and 6 points behind Obama, respectively.
In the 16 states identified by the ABC News Political Unit as battlegrounds, 32 percent report a call or in-person contact from the Obama campaign, 17 percent an e-mail or text message. In these states the comparable numbers for McCain are 23 and 10 percent.
And in the eight toss-up states – Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia – 34 percent report an Obama call, an additional 18 percent an e-mail or text. From McCain, it’s 25 and 10 percent, respectively.
Total contacts by:
Obama McCain
National 29% 21%
16 battlegrounds 38 27
8 toss-ups 42 29In person/phone
Obama McCain
National 21% 14%
16 battlegrounds 32 23
8 toss-ups 34 25E-mail/text
Obama McCain
National 16% 10
16 battlegrounds 17 10
8 toss-ups 18 10
October 24, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (30)
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Its clear to see that abc and msnbc are
pro Obama. You may get more than what you bargained for and it ain't good.
Posted by: rick | Oct 24, 2008 7:57:33 AM
Good for them .i know myself come election in the past, i could have use a good kick in the rear to go VOTE, this time around NOT so much i already went and vote no way i want to face that last day VOTING, but many of the young men do need that reminder.
Posted by: mark | Oct 24, 2008 8:08:07 AM
Obama the great divider. His bitter Small town Americans clinging to guns and god did it for me. That on top of the I'd rather have my own children have an abortion than be ”punished” with a baby. Are you kidding me. How could any rationale American excuse these remarks. He's bad news. A wolf in sheeps clothing. Dont fall for it.
Posted by: Marty G | Oct 24, 2008 9:03:05 AM
Comments made by McPain and Palin, indicate a further divide within this country, which, we can't have at this time.
We've gone with DUMMED DOWN for 8 years, [ remember, 'heck of a job brownie?" Obama will bring THE BEST QUALIFIED PEOPLE fro cabinet seats, and I believe, will work accross the isle, not so optomistic if its McPain.
It's time to REALLY PUT COUNTRY FIRST, and rid ourselves of the GOP, who had control and did nothing, but, let things go to hell in a handbasket.
Posted by: LYNDA in CT | Oct 24, 2008 9:12:22 AM
There was so much talk about Palins wardrobe ...I wonder why there was no talk of Obama and his spending ...He spent 140,000 for his Greek Columns that were used on the convention night ..I wonder if they were donated to charity ?????? City of Chicago has a 4 million dollar deficit at this current time .i have 2 questions on that .With a deficit that big why on earth is Obama planning a 2 million dollar bash for election night where he may or may not be elected President?????
With a deficit like that and with Obamas major spending practices why do so many believe that Obama is the answer to our Economy ??????
Obama has spent more than 105 million dollars in a matter of 15 days yes thats correct 105 million dollars spent in the time frame of October 1-15 and this is the person that could be in charge of our economy ????? Wake up America .Don't let your vote be bought or mislead by the mainstream media or as I call it the Obama Media
Posted by: Tammy | Oct 24, 2008 9:31:45 AM
Bottom live guys...the ONLY way out of this Republican mess it to vote straight Democrat. I can't wait to be saying President Obama come November 4th!
Posted by: hilary | Oct 24, 2008 10:04:20 AM
Obama hands down!
Posted by: Ken | Oct 24, 2008 10:07:05 AM
You mean hands over your eyes don't you.
Obama talks in cliches never says anything he can accomplish. If he's elected and I doubt it, it will be a shame when you proobams get hit right in your wallets. Although most who are getting a free ride will be working in Community Service for 3 bucks an hour. Re distribution worked wonders in our central and south American countries. Why don't you so called Dems Google search and read about how bad it was and will be.
Posted by: azson | Oct 24, 2008 11:00:55 AM
Election Day is going to be like Christmas morning for me. And I'm getting Obama as the greatest gift of all. Barrack the Vote!
Posted by: Buddy | Oct 24, 2008 12:20:50 PM
Here's the difference......McCain folks just whine. Obama supporters back their belief with ACTION i.e. volunteering. And it's obviously working...getting true info out to the voters and not lies and inuendos. I can't even count the number of Republicans, Independents and undecideds I've contacted that believe in Senator Obama and are voting for him. (Not to mention the wonderful feeling you get by participating in this process).
Posted by: wanamakerbeautiful | Oct 24, 2008 12:43:50 PM
27% tax rate on my income of $175,000 works out to about $47,250 per year. A 15% tax rate on a person's income of $450,000 is about $67,500 per year. See, too many people don't understand 5th grade math. Making more money and being in a lower tax bracket does not mean you pay less in taxes. In most cases, you pay much more. That's why the Democrats are working so hard to get the undereducated behind them, because the gullible will believe just about anything.
Posted by: getreal | Oct 24, 2008 12:52:47 PM
Getreal the republicans are the gullible ones 27% tax were do you get these numbers are you pulling them out of your__*. I should be so lucky to pay 27% were I live. I'm an American abroad and were I live I pay 40% tax on my income so stop complaining I only wish I could pay 27%. Americans need to realize that they are lucky with the least amount of taxes they pay now you want us to believe McCain is going to give the middle class a break he is rich and he is going to keep giving tax breaks to his rich buddies open your eyes a man that owns 7+ homes is not for the middle class and I can't believe that you can't see he is another bush in wolves clothing. Wake up America elect a young president that see's and relates with the middle class. RJ
Posted by: RJ | Oct 24, 2008 1:33:24 PM
Barrack the vote.
Posted by: Phil | Oct 24, 2008 1:55:36 PM
- Reuter/C-SPAN/Zogby poll - McCain 41%/51% Obama
- Rasmussen poll - McCain 45%/52% Obama
- Gallup poll - McCain 44%/51% Obama
- CBS/Times poll - McCain 39%/52% Obama
Posted by: stump | Oct 24, 2008 2:06:54 PM
Don't cry fool republican. Republican party is finished, fi nished
Posted by: stump | Oct 24, 2008 2:08:46 PM
I hear a very large woman rehearsing her swan song for McShame and Failin. Next Tuesday, they'll be on the way home, for good.
Posted by: NatFrankie | Oct 24, 2008 4:54:12 PM
Hey getreal,
I just figured your tax rebate with Obama's plan. If you make $175,000.00 and are single with no dependents and aren't 65 or older and not paying off your college loans, you will get $34 back.
Not bad buddy for making all that money, that will give you a net income of $175,034.00 You can go spend it a saks 5th avenue if you want like Sarah McPalin did.
Posted by: scot | Oct 24, 2008 5:09:20 PM
All the bitter Republicans complaining about how the media is against them. I just think it's hysterical. You had control and you blew it. If McCain was a true maverick he would have run as an independent, but again; he is a maverick only in the eyes of those who listen to right wing fanatical talk radio and FOX/FAUX news. YOU DID THIS TO YOURSELF.
Posted by: THE GOP IS A ROTTING CORPSE | Oct 25, 2008 8:45:04 AM
Can you picture Palin being in charge of this country? Taking expensive helicopter rides to shoot defenseless wolves and moose... what a sport she is!
Posted by: caroline | Oct 25, 2008 12:00:40 PM
McCain and Palin are not liars. Obama is the liar. And his deceit will destroy our country!! The democrats are all liars who hate truth America if you elect Obama you will not have freedom anymore. Democrats will take your money and freedom of speech away. If you are a christian or a follower of judaism, your moral values will be outlawed. Obscenty will take the place of freedom of speech. There will be forced abortions like in China because Obama favors the right of a woman to choose to murder her own baby over the baby's own life. He also is favors communism as a way of government and intends to turn our coutry into a communist country as do all liberals,democrat or republican. Kruschev you were right. America say
hellO TO BIG BROTHER AND ALL WHO WOULD CONTROL EVERY ASPECT OF YOUR LIFE.
Christians and God's chosen people, Israel be strong and fight for your faith in God.
Posted by: Patricia Spillman | Oct 25, 2008 12:05:54 PM
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