The Numbers
A Run at the Latest Data from ABC's Poobah of Polling, Gary Langer
Gary Langer is director of polling at ABC News, where he's covered the beat of public opinion for nearly 20 years - conducting and analyzing ABC News polls, evaluating data from other sources and setting the news division's standards for poll reporting. Langer has won two Emmy awards for ABC's reporting of public opinion polls in Iraq, and The Numbers blog was honored this year as winner of the 2008 Iowa Gallup Award for Excellent Journalism Using Polls.
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The Ground War Rages
October 24, 2008 7:06 AM
Three in 10 likely voters say they’ve been contacted by phone, e-mail or in person by Barack Obama’s campaign, rising to four in 10 in the battleground states – in both cases an advantage for Obama over John McCain in the ground game.
Nationally 29 percent report being contacted by phone, in person or via e-mail or text message on behalf of the Obama campaign, vs. 21 percent who report a contact from the McCain camp. In the 16 battleground states, 38 percent report an Obama contact vs. 27 percent from the McCain campaign. And in the 8 tossups states it’s 42 vs. 29 percent.
These are – for both campaigns – enormous numbers of direct contacts. With turnout of perhaps 130 million voters, the equivalent of 38 million report having been contacted to date by the Obama campaign, 27 million by McCain’s – with a week a half yet to go.
Traditionally, contacts closer to Election Day could matter more. But this does not look like a traditional election: As reported in the latest ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll last night, 31 percent of likely voters plan to vote early or by absentee ballot. That might lend more clout to early contacts.
Obama’s efforts seem either better targeted or more effective. He holds a wide 75-23 percent lead in vote choice among likely voters who’ve been contacted by his campaign; among those he’s not contacted, by contrast, it’s a 50-44 percent McCain-Obama race.
McCain’s efforts do not show this differentiation. He trails by 10 points, 52-42 percent, among people he’s contacted, and by about the same, 55-42 percent, among those he has not.
Vote preference
Obama McCain
Contacted by Obama
Yes 75% 23
No 44 50
Contacted by McCain
Yes 52% 42
No 55 42
In another indication of targeting, Obama has an especially sharp advantage among likely voters under age 40: in this group 30 percent report an Obama contact, while just 11 percent have heard from McCain. And 44 percent of Democrats report an Obama contact, vs. 25 percent of Republicans who’ve been contacted by McCain. It’s closer among independents; 26 percent have heard from Obama, 20 percent from McCain.
Nationally, 21 percent say they’ve heard from the Obama campaign by phone or in person, 16 percent by e-mail or text message (mailings weren’t measured in this poll). Combining those who reported both kinds of contacts produces the net of 29 percent.
For McCain, 14 percent have heard by phone or in person and 10 percent report receiving campaign e-mails or text messages, 7 and 6 points behind Obama, respectively.
In the 16 states identified by the ABC News Political Unit as battlegrounds, 32 percent report a call or in-person contact from the Obama campaign, 17 percent an e-mail or text message. In these states the comparable numbers for McCain are 23 and 10 percent.
And in the eight toss-up states – Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia – 34 percent report an Obama call, an additional 18 percent an e-mail or text. From McCain, it’s 25 and 10 percent, respectively.
Total contacts by:
Obama McCain
National 29% 21%
16 battlegrounds 38 27
8 toss-ups 42 29In person/phone
Obama McCain
National 21% 14%
16 battlegrounds 32 23
8 toss-ups 34 25E-mail/text
Obama McCain
National 16% 10
16 battlegrounds 17 10
8 toss-ups 18 10
October 24, 2008 in 2008 General Election | Permalink | User Comments (30)
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Sorry Mc Cain it all over for you now. Go to Arizona and relax, you seem out of touch. "My friend" try again for the 3rd time in 2016 but with something new other than "Joe the plumber"
Posted by: sammy | Oct 25, 2008 5:49:08 PM
if amrica matters we should all vote for barrak no way a guy shosing pallin for vp and his age 72 we will be the rest of our lives paying for costy u/w and we will be big joke....
Posted by: otaibi | Oct 25, 2008 6:16:34 PM
america youth love you president OBAMA
Posted by: peter | Oct 26, 2008 6:29:08 AM
THE CAT IS OUT OF THE BAG ---- Obama has long been an adherent of Marxism and—as well as having befriended and worked with Marxist terrorists William Ayers and his wife Bernadine Dohrn—one of his earliest mentors was Saul Alinsky; Marxist and the American founder of “community organizing” in Chicago. In his book “Rules for Radicals”—which he dedicated to Satan—Alinsky outlines how to create radicals and take over impoverished communities and then extend into the larger suburban areas by lulling the middle class into a false sense of comfort with the organizers’ ideas. Alinsky advises that by the time the “educated” middle class realizes the radicals were lying, it’s too late. ----Note: After Obama is elected, all of his programs and people to keep him in power indefinitely—and to rid him of any and all opposition—will be firmly in place. You will not be able to vote him out of office. By the time he assumes the position of President of the United States it will already be too late. A democratic republic will last only so long as people of good will allow and fight for it. After they are gone—or removed—it is
Posted by: Badger | Oct 26, 2008 5:53:43 PM
I will making calls for McCain this week .I must admit I have never done this and find it to be a little intrusive. But after I watched a show the other night with Obama volunteers going door to door and in my opinion were being very aggressive with the people . I decided I a can make some calls and no longer feel i'm invading on their privacy. I know I will respect was they say and not say.
Posted by: conf1689 | Oct 26, 2008 8:15:21 PM
Let's See....8 Years of GOP Control and what do we have to show for it??? The largest terrorist attack in history - on GOP Watch, A war that didn't need to happen, a National Debt that is unimaginable, hated and laughed at by our NATO allies for having an illiterate Chief, Hurricane Katrina response that was devestating, an Economy that is in the toilet, more dependence on oil due to our Greedy Oil Tycoons occupying the White House, More Iraqis who hate us now because we have killed their family members and destroyed their homeland, and more US Soldiers lives lost everyday. When will it stop ?? I say it is time for a new administration, a different direction, and GOP control is obviously NOT that direction. Feel Free to add to this list......Who would you want running your country, a Harvard Graduate or someone who finished 855 out of 859 in their class. Give me a break - America Wake Up and THINK !!!!
Posted by: DL | Oct 27, 2008 3:42:51 AM
Not only do I NOT KNOW MCCAIN'S tax plan/ THEY DON'T TALK ABOUT IT EITHER- I wonder why?- could it be Obama's PLAN is better? What if my insurance plan costs more that $5000 where am I going to get the rest of the money? McCain sort of left that out!! And what about Education? McCain does not even talk about it. RICH PEOPLE DO NOT WANT MIDDLE CLASS AND POOR PEOPLE TO GET A GOOD EDUCATION because they may want to become rich. ALL MCCAIN AND PALIN TALK ABOUT IS OBAMA'S PLAN. MAYBE THEY LIKE IT BETTER THAN THEIRS? REPUBLICANS LIKE A FEW THINGS, WARS(CONTRACTS), AND TAX BREAKS FOR THE RICH. THAT IS IT-THEY WANT NOTHING FOR THE MIDDLE CLASS. HECK WE HELP MAKE THEM RICH!!! OBAMA/BIDEN THE ONLY REAL CHOICE.
Posted by: LOWES4321 | Oct 27, 2008 10:11:18 PM
Let's see... my choice... A bitter old guy who makes decisions even more so by the seat of his pants that GWB... and who in his only example to show what type of people he would choose to help him govern chose... PALIN.
Compare that to a eloquent, considered man in the prime of life who has shown that he makes considered descisions and consults with the best and the brightest regardless of their political views.
We'll you figure out who I already voted for.
Posted by: Voted_Today | Oct 28, 2008 11:03:26 AM
I admire McCain and Palin for their audacity of hope but think Barack Obama has the capacity to inspire, unite and motivate the nation to a higher level of the American Dream where the middle class will again play its role as the engine of America's economy.
There is simply too much money on the hands of so few that the American economy suffers from 'uncirculation of money' and hence limited purchasing power. Stimulus packages are too ad hoc to solve the problem we need an overhaul of the dysfunctional economic system!
Welcome Obama
God Bless America
Posted by: D Mgaya | Oct 29, 2008 2:06:33 PM
The 44th President of the United States of America being sworn in on January 20th, will be the GREATEST GIFT OF MY LIFE!!!
I have endured a living hell as I have personally witnessed the HORROR of 8 years of BUSH presidency. I can tell you that BUSH has single handedly DESTROYED America in so many ways...something not even Bin Laden could do. Everything he has done has been an act of corruption. I hope BUSH is put into jail in the coming years for his deceit, and betrayal of the trust of the American people. All you loyalists will one day be able to see just how gullible you were to believe his lies.
Posted by: Tina | Nov 3, 2008 10:33:21 PM
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